When do you fire a manager?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I just found and read the Donaldson thread.

 

It was painful.

 

Yup, I remember wanting to punch kittens while I was in the middle of it.  There was a really concerted effort to pedestalize Mr. Beane even in the face of an inexplicable series of moves.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How stupid was I?

Heh, not "stupid" per se, but there were several posters gushing about Beane and how the Twins should emulate his approach.

 

Very little thought was given to results and the sentiment was that movement=success.

 

We should all know better than that. Some of the most active GMs in recent memory were/are also some of the most mediocre. A move is not a good move by default. Sometimes the process is correct (as I believe it was in the Span/Meyer trade) and the result is wrong but sometimes the process is wrong which usually nets a wrong result as well.

 

My only response in the thread was basically confusion because I didn't get what Beane was trying to accomplish... Or, maybe more accurately, I didn't see how his intended goal would be reached with this particular move.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I still think that trade can work for them.....they aren't all that good, and needed numbers. But I'm sure I said it was awesome sauce and the Twins were idiots for not being like them.......I think I've matured my posting in the last year or two....

[TheLeviathan]

 

We should all know better than that. Some of the most active GMs in recent memory were/are also some of the most mediocre. A move is not a good move by default. Sometimes the process is correct (as I believe it was in the Span/Meyer trade) and the result is wrong but sometimes the process is wrong which usually nets a wrong result as well.

 

Perfect example - I will always credit Ryan with this move, not criticize him.  The intent/method was correct.  Sometimes they just don't work out.

 

Trading MVP candidates for high ceiling A ball players and low ceiling AAA players is NEVER a move I will endorse.  Hell, I think the team needs to punt next season but I'd still, and always, endorse finding any GM who wants to trade their young stud players for a bunch of low minors lottery tickets.

 

If Ryan had done that I'd praise him.  If Ryan or anyone else sells Sano for something like it - I'll go crazy.  Just like i did when Beane was dumb enough to do it.

[Rosterman]

 

Perfect example - I will always credit Ryan with this move, not criticize him.  The intent/method was correct.  Sometimes they just don't work out.

 

Trading MVP candidates for high ceiling A ball players and low ceiling AAA players is NEVER a move I will endorse.  Hell, I think the team needs to punt next season but I'd still, and always, endorse finding any GM who wants to trade their young stud players for a bunch of low minors lottery tickets.

 

If Ryan had done that I'd praise him.  If Ryan or anyone else sells Sano for something like it - I'll go crazy.  Just like i did when Beane was dumb enough to do it.

Let's see. Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey.

 

Or spend $120 million.

[Mike Sixel]

In fairness, imo......you, me, Brock could have traded Span for a pitching prospect.....following a process isn't all that hard. Doing a process well also matters. They largely did not do that with Span or Revere (as far as we can tell so far). Or, they messed up both pitchers, we'll see.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In fairness, imo......you, me, Brock could have traded Span for a pitching prospect.....following a process isn't all that hard. Doing a process well also matters. They largely did not do that with Span or Revere (as far as we can tell so far). Or, they messed up both pitchers, we'll see.

Absolutely. In no way did I mean to imply that the Twins get a pass on the Span/Meyer trade. It was a failure.

 

But I look more kindly upon a trade that looks good and makes sense (or a decent process) and ultimately fails because sometimes that just happens in this sport. The failure rate of prospects is high and sometimes good thinking leads to bad results.

[diehardtwinsfan]

still cannot get worked up about Meyer. He was a top 100 prospect, not some nobody.

 

There may be something on whether or not the Twins developed him properly, but the trade itself was the right thing to do. We won't know ever what other options were on the table (if any at all).

 

That said, back to the topic, I see no point in firing Molitor right now.  A new manager accomplishes what at this stage?  Just let them finish out the season and let the new GM/PBO figure this one out.

[dxpavelka]

 

You might be right about Ryan; those were head-scratchers at the time (Pelfrey in the rotation instead of May?) and did not work out well.

On a related note, I've been wondering lately whether Billy Beane has done a worse job. At least Ryan didn't trade Josh Donaldson and Addison Russell.

Good point.  It has actually been a while since someone left here (trade or free agent) and made a contribution along those lines.

[Doomtints]

 

At this point I don't think it matters much when to fire Molitor. To be perfectly honest I hope it happens sooner rather than later. I think much of the major league coaching staff is detrimental to a lot of the younger players. 

 

Normally, a 13-loss streak means the firing of the manager.  

[kenbuddha]

 

Normally, a 13-loss streak means the firing of the manager.  

 

That's the deal though. The situation the Twins are in is not "normal". They have an interim GM and are looking to hire a Head of Baseball Operations. It's a non-normal, frustrating situation and all actions that clubs would normally take are out the window. Firing anyone at this point is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Besides if they continue to lose ballgames, our draft pick gets better.

[Doomtints]

 

That's the deal though. The situation the Twins are in is not "normal". They have an interim GM and are looking to hire a Head of Baseball Operations. It's a non-normal, frustrating situation and all actions that clubs would normally take are out the window. Firing anyone at this point is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Besides if they continue to lose ballgames, our draft pick gets better.

 

The Twins haven't had a normal front office for a very long time.  I don't expect logic to happen until the next group comes in.  And I agree, the new group should be the ones to make the decision on this.

[ashbury]

Normally, a 13-loss streak means the firing of the manager.  

13 losses doesn't even register on the Wikipedia list of losing streaks. A spot check of 20th century instances:

 

1959 Washington Senators, 18 game losing streak. Manager: Cookie Lavagetto.

1960 manager: Cookie Lavagetto.

 

2005: Kansas City Royals, 19 game losing streak. Manager (during the streak): Buddy Bell.

2006 manager: Buddy Bell.

 

1975 Detroit Tigers, 19 game losing streak. Manager: Ralph Houk.

1976 manager: Ralph Houk.

 

This search is tedious. Montreal in their inaugural 1969 season lost 19, but Gene Mauch was back for 1970 - but an expansion team is a special case no doubt. 1961 Phillies had an epic 23-game streak; Gene Mauch (again with him) survived to manage for quite a while longer there.

 

OK, I used a tool at b-r.com to look at it another way. Last year Cincinnati suffered through a 13-game streak like ours; Bryan Price was manager then, still is. In 2013 the Astros lost 15; Bo Porter kept his job until deep into the 2014 season.

 

I'm sure if I keep going I'll find someone who got replaced the following season. I'm not cherry-picking - not omitting anyone who got fired - although my process of sampling could be at fault.

 

But I think it's safe to say that a "mere" 13 gamer, repulsive as it was, is just part of a manager's resume and is not the be-all and end-all.