Duffey deserves to be demoted

[Doomtints]

 

You can't pitch from the windup with runners on base.  Ie: he's saying you can't bring Duffey into the game with runners on 1st and 2nd because he's bad from the stretch ( I have no idea if numbers back up his hypothesis)

 

Gotcha.  It would be interesting to see numbers on that.

[jimmer]

 

Gotcha.  It would be interesting to see numbers on that.

With no one base, he allows a .281/.317/.449 line against with a 4.86 K/BB ratio.

 

With runners on (presumably when he is in the stretch), he allows a .328/.386/.630 line against. His K/BB ratio drops 3 points (4.86 with bases empty 1.87 with men on base)

 

[Doomtints]

 

Board favorite May has regressed badly this season. He will have to do more than prove he is injury prone to earn a spot in the rotation.

 

May's control has been terrible this year, almost as bad as what we saw with Meyer.  If I were GM I instruct Molitor to use May conservatively next year with the hope of being able to sell high on him at the trade deadline.  

[laloesch]

 

Yes, Duffey may be teh second coming of Scott Diamond. If he must start, send him down. But I would rather look at him as a long relief, middle innings guy and see if he works there. For the now, though, send him down and let us look at Wheeler.

 

Same with Dean. NOT in the future plans. We NEED to look at Wimmers and make a short-term decision. Why not add him and Wheeler to the 40-man NOW and bring them both up to pitch more than less.

 

Duffey has made himself a non-roster guy with his recent work. The potential is there, but do you need to keep him on the roster above and beyond a minor league invite. Of course, you may lose him, but what is the downside to that.

 

Or send him to Rochester with one goal, further develop that change-up.  According to fangraphs 55% of his pitches this season have been fastballs, 38% curve balls and 5.7% changeups.  That spread needs more balancing.  He is throwing too many fastballs and too few changeups in my opinion. 

[alarp33]

 

With no one base, he allows a .281/.317/.449 line against with a 4.86 K/BB ratio.

 

With runners on (presumably when he is in the stretch), he allows a .328/.386/.630 line against. His K/BB ratio drops 3 points (4.86 with bases empty 1.87 with men on base)

 

So the numbers do back it up, though I'm not sure if that would follow him into a 1 inning role, where he presumably would throw harder, have a different approach, etc.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

With no one base, he allows a .281/.317/.449 line against with a 4.86 K/BB ratio.

 

With runners on (presumably when he is in the stretch), he allows a .328/.386/.630 line against. His K/BB ratio drops 3 points (4.86 with bases empty 1.87 with men on base)

 

You're assuming a causation that isn't necessarily there. Of course guys have worse numbers when guys are on - if they let people on, they're presumably not pitching well so it's no surprise it continues. If they're not letting guys on, their stuff is likely better and they're less likely to get hit around.

 

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the overall point, just the weight of these numbers in proving it. To do that I think you'd need to find what the league averages are for runners on vs. bases empty and compare it to Duffey. That would help.

[jimmer]

 

You're assuming a causation that isn't necessarily there. Of course guys have worse numbers when guys are on - if they let people on, they're presumably not pitching well so it's no surprise it continues. If they're not letting guys on, their stuff is likely better and they're less likely to get hit around.

 

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the overall point, just the weight of these numbers in proving it. To do that I think you'd need to find what the league averages are for runners on vs. bases empty and compare it to Duffey. That would help.

I'm not assuming anything.  I'm giving the numbers asked for by one poster after another poster said he does worse in the stretch (the same thing Jack and Bert have said). People are drawing their own conclusions.

[jimmer]

May seems to have problems (performance and physical) coming into games in relief.  He's meant to be on a regular routine, in other words a starter.  Since he did so well as a starter last year, that's where he should be.

 

[laloesch]

 

May's control has been terrible this year, almost as bad as what we saw with Meyer.  If I were GM I instruct Molitor to use May conservatively next year with the hope of being able to sell high on him at the trade deadline.  

 

He's been up and down.  No doubt not a good year for him.  I also think the Twins have not helped matter either.  They have messed with his head based on his comments to the media.  I wouldn't trade him at the deadline next year.  Big mistake in my opinion.  He is the only potential starter with 8-9K per 9 plus stuff with the exception of Berrios. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ok. That doesn't make the comparison I replied to any better. 

 

Well, I think what the person was arguing was that as Duffey is 26, there's a concept that he doesn't have as much to gain from spending time in AAA. He doesn't have a very high ceiling so in the absence of other better options, letting him figure it out at the majors is acceptable. As Berrios has a higher ceiling and is younger with less time at AAA, there's a concept that he might have some things to learn.

 

Note that this isn't necessarily my argument, just trying to flesh it out a bit.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm not assuming anything.  I'm giving the numbers asked for.

 

Cool. I just don't think that the numbers really prove much other than, "pitchers who are pitching poorly tend to continue to pitch poorly."

[Doomtints]

 

He's been up and down.  No doubt not a good year for him.  I also think the Twins have not helped matter either.  They have messed with his head based on his comments to the media.  I wouldn't trade him at the deadline next year.  Big mistake in my opinion.  He is the only potential starter with 8-9K per 9 plus stuff with the exception of Berrios. 

 

I don't see him ever being a starter.  I can understand wanting to keep him around if you think he can be a starter.  I disagree with that, however.  

[jimmer]

 

Cool. I just don't think that the numbers really prove much other than, "pitchers who are pitching poorly tend to continue to pitch poorly."

And maybe so, but Bert and Jack have noted differences in performance/delivery/command between how he does in full versus stretch positions. Can't discount a mechanical issue.

[alarp33]

 

Well, I think what the person was arguing was that as Duffey is 26, there's a concept that he doesn't have as much to gain from spending time in AAA. He doesn't have a very high ceiling so in the absence of other better options, letting him figure it out at the majors is acceptable. As Berrios has a higher ceiling and is younger with less time at AAA, there's a concept that he might have some things to learn.

 

Note that this isn't necessarily my argument, just trying to flesh it out a bit.

 

"People complained Berrios was demoted. But are now complaining Duffey hasn't been".  

 

Again, that is all I replied too...  You are trying to argue my point, but you are further making it for me by pointing out the difference between Duffey and Berrios.  There are not similarities to people complaining for Berrios and against Duffey

[Doomtints]

 

And maybe so, but Bert and Jack have noted differences in performance/delivery/command between how he does in full versus stretch positions. Can't discount a mechanical issue.

 

Looking at his OPS numbers when sliced up by base runners, his numbers are bad in nearly every situation.  His only good numbers are in the following situations:

 

0 out, baserunners at 1st and 2nd

1 out, bases empty

1 out, baserunner at 2nd

1 out, baserunner at 3rd

1 out, baserunners at 2nd and 3rd

1 out, bases loaded

 

This goes against the hypothesis.

 

If you look at OPS by inning, his best innings are the 1st and 2nd innings, exactly what you would expect from a 2-pitch pitcher.  He's OK against the first half of the lineup, good against the 2nd half, and when facing hitters a 2nd time the hitters can simply wait for the pitch they want.  

 

[jimmer]

 

Looking at his OPS numbers when sliced up by base runners, his numbers are bad in every situation.  His only good numbers are in the following situations:

 

0 out, baserunners at 1st and 2nd

1 out, bases empty

1 out, baserunner at 2nd

1 out, baserunner at 3rd

1 out, baserunners at 2nd and 3rd

1 out, bases loaded

 

This goes against the hypothesis.

 

 

The bases empty versus men on comparison I gave stemmed from 300 and 211 PA respectively.  Not a lot, but combined with what Bert and Jack have noticed and mentioned it starts to at least outline a picture.

 

How small of sample sizes do you consider valid to try and gleen info from?  For example, your first one has happened during 8 PAs this year.  Your second one isn't in the stretch. Your 3rd one has happened during 16 PAs this year, your 4th one has happened during 4 PAs this year. Your 5th one has happened during 4 PAs this year. Your 6th one has happened during 4 PA this year.

 

But, again, not my hypothesis, it was another poster's along with Jack's and Bert's.  I was just providing info.

 

[gocgo]

Totally disagree with demoting any young pitcher at this point in the season.  Ride it out.  Let them take there lumps and learn from it.  If anything, I would consider a move to the bullpen to test out another young guy to give them rotational experience in the bigs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Berrios started 4 games before he was sent down for 2 months.  Duffey has been hit like a pinata for 18 starts not.  7.24 era since May 24.  

 

I'm not sure how you found that to be comparable situations

Additionally, Duffey is already burning an option this year anyway, having spent ~21 days on optional assignment back in April.  As compared to Berrios, who did not burn an option until after we added him and then sent him down after only 4 starts.  (Not that options are necessarily super valuable, but we know they are a bit of a factor.)

[kab21]

Duffey failing this year is definitely one of the five worst things that has happened this year as far as the long term Twins are concerned. They needed a few reliable starters (let's say 4.00 ERA guys) so the team has a chance but instead Hughes ripped up his arm, Duffey completely sucks and Gibson has been disappointing. I am not concerned about Berrios yet but he might not be a solid MLB pitcher as soon as he is needed (now).

 

This rotation is completely awful and will likely be completely awful next year also.

 

I think part of the reason that he is still in the rotation is that the FO/staff can't believe that he isn't doing well. He has good K and BB rates. As mentioned above he is getting killed with runners on base, a .334 BAPIP and by a 20% HR/FB rate. Some appear to have jumped to conclusions that he can't pitch with runners on base but we are still dealing with small sample sizes (211 batters faced). Further backing up the small sample size angle is that his runners on vs bases empty splits weren't as significant last year. Nor was his HR/FB%. We really don't have enough data to say anything right now. 

 

I will make a bold (extremely bold) prediction that Duffey turns it around next season and becomes the solid starter that many expected this year. I probably let him continue pitching this year in the hopes that his ERA starts matching his xFIP and he looks like he has potential going into next season. There just aren't a lot of options to replace him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There's really nobody left. They could add Wheeler back to the 40-man roster -- and I think they should -- but other than that, they've brought up pretty much anyone and everyone who can help right now. 

Well, you yourself just identified Wheeler as worthy.  And Mejia could have another 3-4 starts before he hits his innings limit, why not make them in MLB?  Not that they will help a lot right now, but getting MLB reps for those two is increasingly important as it looks less likely that Duffey can break camp in our rotation next spring.

 

Not only might they be more valuable uses of the last month of the season than letting Duffey continue his up-and-down season starting, both would sure beats Pat Dean starting Friday...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Well, you yourself just identified Wheeler as worthy.  And Mejia could have another 3-4 starts before he hits his innings limit, why not make them in MLB?  Not that they will help a lot right now, but getting MLB reps for those two is increasingly important as it looks less likely that Duffey can break camp in our rotation next spring.

 

Not only might they be more valuable uses of the last month of the season than letting Duffey continue his up-and-down season starting, both would sure beats Pat Dean starting Friday...

 

And I for one would love to see Duffey in the pen. I think even if he turns it around that might be his future - he has two pitches and the Twins have enough young pitching coming up that someone is going to get squeezed out. Duffey makes the most sense.

[ThejacKmp]

 

And maybe so, but Bert and Jack have noted differences in performance/delivery/command between how he does in full versus stretch positions. Can't discount a mechanical issue.

 

Bert's opinions on national broadcasts also involve long discussions of his birthday and rants about how soft pitchers are for not pitching complete games. I'm not saying those guys are idiots or that a mechanical issue isn't part of the issue but I'm not sure they aren't just filling time during a season it has to be hard to announce Twins games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Other teams bring up players from the low levels of MiBL - it is worth auditions at least.  What is to lose?  Only Santana is pitching like someone who should get all his starts.

I don't think many starting pitchers come up from lower levels, especially when they don't need to be added to the 40-man yet.  I'm not at all convinced other teams would promote someone like Gonsalves right now, and he would pretty much be the only viable option.

[jimmer]

 

Bert's opinions on national broadcasts also involve long discussions of his birthday and rants about how soft pitchers are for not pitching complete games. I'm not saying those guys are idiots or that a mechanical issue isn't part of the issue but I'm not sure they aren't just filling time during a season it has to be hard to announce Twins games.

Well, I don't know about any of his national broadcasts, just his FSN ones, but yeah.

 

Thing is, when it comes to actual pitching and mechanics, he's worth listening to.  Admittedly those are rare occasions :-)  In that way, he's a lot like Harold Reynolds.  If Harold isn't talking middle IF defense, he's not at all worth listening to.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Don't demote Duffey.  Move him to the bullpen.  He has two pitches.  Successful starting pitchers need more than that.  He will be an elite bullpen arm once the Twins figure out how to properly staff a baseball team based on a player's abilities.

Who is a successful MLB bullpen guy (currently or in the past) that is comparable to Duffey (91 mph fastball / big curve)?

[howieramone2]

 

Well, you yourself just identified Wheeler as worthy.  And Mejia could have another 3-4 starts before he hits his innings limit, why not make them in MLB?  Not that they will help a lot right now, but getting MLB reps for those two is increasingly important as it looks less likely that Duffey can break camp in our rotation next spring.

 

Not only might they be more valuable uses of the last month of the season than letting Duffey continue his up-and-down season starting, both would sure beats Pat Dean starting Friday...

What Rob Antony said Sunday was, Mejia was at 127 innings and they were originally thinking about capping him at 130, but would give him one more start.

[Doomtints]

 

The bases empty versus men on comparison I gave stemmed from 300 and 211 PA respectively.  Not a lot, but combined with what Bert and Jack have noticed and mentioned it starts to at least outline a picture.

 

How small of sample sizes do you consider valid to try and gleen info from?  For example, your first one has happened during 8 PAs this year.  Your second one isn't in the stretch. Your 3rd one has happened during 16 PAs this year, your 4th one has happened during 4 PAs this year. Your 5th one has happened during 4 PAs this year. Your 6th one has happened during 4 PA this year.

 

But, again, not my hypothesis, it was another poster's along with Jack's and Bert's.  I was just providing info.

 

Yes, there are some small sample sizes there for sure.  Nevertheless, he has done well (so far) in those situations -- and for all practical purposes he has been universally bad in every other situation.  What I saw was much worse than I expected to find when I looked it up!

[Doomtints]

 

Who is a successful MLB bullpen guy (currently or in the past) that is comparable to Duffey (91 mph fastball / big curve)?

 

I would say Jeff Reardon is a good comp, though I would not expect Duffey to be quite as good as Reardon.  I think Blyleven coached Reardon on how to throw his monster curve in 1987, as I have never seen any other pitchers other than those two throw curves like that.  

[Loosey]

Why not move him to bullpen?  I have always thought he would end up being a nice reliever.  Give the 7th or 8th and I think with his curve and usually pretty good control on his fastball he would do well out there.  

[mikelink45]

 

I don't think many starting pitchers come up from lower levels, especially when they don't need to be added to the 40-man yet.  I'm not at all convinced other teams would promote someone like Gonsalves right now, and he would pretty much be the only viable option.

I agree with your supposition and I also agree with Gonsalves but look at this list of under 25 pitchers - http://www.nbcsports.com/25-pitchers-25-and-under  True they were not coached by the Twins, but we can go back and find a lot of young arms that have made good.  The essence of the issue is whether we can live with the trend of the last 6 years - free agents are no guarantee.