A Pivotal Offseason for the Offense

[Major League Ready]

 

2016 is pretty clearly an outlier, both offensively and defensively. He'll be 31, not 41. He can still be productive, especially if he regains health and he'll be on a contract year. In which case his 5-10m arb contract would be an excellent use of payroll space and make him attractive as a trade chip if the season goes south.

There's a high likelihood Sano can't cut it at third, either because of his glove or his elbow. If we non-tender Plouffe, and Sano doesn't cut it, or breaks his arm, then what?

The reason I am glad Ryan is gone is because he refused to move on from a mediocre player and at least give a potential superstar a legitimate shot at taking over the position.   This is how you stay mediocre or worse.  The failure to move Plouffe last off-season, especially after acquiring Park is symptomatic of why the FO needs to be changed.  RA has shown more of the same.

 

It has become common practice to clear out the veteran players and use those assets to rebuild everywhere but this team.   Plouffe would be at the top of my list of players to move.  I would non-tender him if I could not trade him.

[d-mac]

 

I don't think anyone suggested moving Polanco to 3B if he can play a good SS.  Willinghammer asked for multiple options in case Plouffe left, and 4 different things went wrong.  Polanco would be one of those options.  

 

Sano would be my starting 3rd baseman, Polanco would be my starting SS or 2nd baseman, depending on what they do with Dozier.  Plouffe would not be in the equation

 

And if Sano can't hack it at 3rd, Polanco goes to 3rd and Escobar is at SS. Not ideal offensively, but it's likely a defensive upgrade, and the Twins aren't competing anyway next year. But by keeping Plouffe necessarily will come at the expense of Vargas or Park. I'm not ready to give up on either just yet.  

[alarp33]

 

And if Sano can't hack it at 3rd, Polanco goes to 3rd and Escobar is at SS. Not ideal offensively, but it's likely a defensive upgrade, and the Twins aren't competing anyway next year. But by keeping Plouffe necessarily will come at the expense of Vargas or Park. I'm not ready to give up on either just yet.  

 

The hypothetical of Sano getting hurt, and then being screwed at 3B without Plouffe around is just silly.  They are in the exact same situation if Dozier were to get hurt, they would have to shuffle the deck chairs around (polanco to 2B, escobar to SS, etc) in that case as well.  

 

If Sano gets hurt and can't play 3rd, they are in trouble.  With or without Trevor Plouffe on the roster.  

 

Without Plouffe on the roster, they have say an extra $8 million to spend on a catcher, utility player, or pitcher

[d-mac]

If I were running the show, here's what I'd do:

 

-I'd have Buxton down in AAA for most, if not all offseason. I'd try to sign a veteran CF to hold down the position until Buxton forces himself into the starting role: I'd target Gomez, Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, or Jon Jay and see if any will take a one year deal. 

 

-I'd try to trade Dozier for a young starting pitcher, probably not Teheran though, he's a national league pitcher with suspect peripherals. If a deal can be swung, Polanco is the starting 2B, with Escobar at SS. If not, Polanco is at SS, with Escobar on the bench. 

 

-For the love of God, let's give Sano a full year at 3B before we write him off. The Twins did him no favors with their failed outfield experiment. As long as arm holds up, I think he'll be passable there, he's made some difficult plays, but he struggles with the routine- hopefully he'll clean that up with experience. 

 

-As far as DH goes, I'd like to see how Park can do when he's fully healthy, sounds like he's been battling a nagging wrist injury all year. No doubt that's affected his bat speed and production. The winner of the Vargas/Park battle in ST will get the starting DH spot. Vargas will be on the bench if Park wins, if Vargas wins, I'd probably stash Park in AAA in case of injury or failure by Vargas. If by mid-season, both are raking I'd try to trade one for the best return. Of course if Mauer turns into a pumpkin, we'll need Park at 1st and Vargas at DH with Mauer moving to a part time role. 

 

-I'd dip my toe into the FA catcher market too. If Ramos or Wieters can be had on a reasonable three year deal I'd take it. But that's unlikely, so I'd try to sign Jason Castro to a two year deal or Hundley on a one-year deal. But I'm not going to overpay. If the catcher market is too rich I'll roll with Garver/ Centeno next year. 

[Thrylos]

Incremental changes, like the ones proposed will not make the Twins contenders in 2017.

 

The Twins need to do the one thing that they have not done properly, since Andy MacPhail was their GM:

Rebuild

 

Listen to offers for everyone over 27, package them with prospects to get back the best talent possible close to MLB-ready, if not, and play that talent.  Do not re-sign or do not tender players that they can get nothing for or are not under contract (Suzuki, Plouffe, Sandiago, Milone, etc...) 

 

Ideally the Twins will get rid of everyone over that age next season (other than Mauer who will be unlikely to move.)

 

Sano will not improve his play at third base and Polanco will no improve his at SS, unless they play, like Plouffe and Koskie did.

 

Who's at second?  The former second baseman of the future, Eddie Rosario, that's who.  And as far as LF goes, it should be Palka's job to lose.  I'd love to see this roster in 2017

 

C - Garver, Murphy or new MLB-ready prospect

1B - Mauer (have to.)

2B - Rosario

SS - Polanco

3B - Sano

LF - Palka

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

DH - Vargas

 

SP - new MLB-ready prospect

SP - Berrios

SP - May

SP - Mejia

SP - Gonsalves

 

RP - Burdi

RP - Chargois

RP - Rogers

RP - Hildenberger

RP - Melotakis

RP - Duffey

RP - Baxendale

 

They might win more than a half-baked team based on the 2016 team next season, but they will more for sure in 2018...

[markos]

 

I don't know.....the defense is still terrible, until Buxton can hit. The pitching? I have confidence in 2 of them (and really, that's 1, with sort of confidence in two....). The hitting? The sophomore slump appears to be a real thing, so Kepler should drop off. I Rosario is who he is. Escobar and Plouffe are who they are. The catchers? Probably won't hit this well next year.

 

I think they are probably one of the 5-10 worst teams next year, unless Buxton learns how to hit. In which case they might, maybe, if things go well, be closer to middle of the pack.

There is actually a decent argument that they aren't one of the worse 10 teams in baseball right now. They have been unlucky just as much as just bad. Despite everything that went wrong to start the season, they are 19th in BaseRuns record right now - ahead of the A's, Angels, White Sox, Yankees and Royals in the AL. Their BaseRuns record, for a full season, would be 75-87. Would you make the same prediction if they were on pace for 75 wins? 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is actually a decent argument that they aren't one of the worse 10 teams in baseball right now. They have been unlucky just as much as just bad. Despite everything that went wrong to start the season, they are 19th in BaseRuns record right now - ahead of the A's, Angels, White Sox, Yankees and Royals in the AL. Their BaseRuns record, for a full season, would be 75-87. Would you make the same prediction if they were on pace for 75 wins? 

 

19th is pretty much bottom 10......certainly in the margin of error. I'm not a total believer in BaseRuns, but I understand the argument. 

 

Until Buxton (or his successor) can hit, and Berrios (or some of the AA guys are here) can pitch, this team is at best "meh", imo. 

[Doomtints]

 

19th is pretty much bottom 10......certainly in the margin of error. I'm not a total believer in BaseRuns, but I understand the argument. 

 

Until Buxton (or his successor) can hit, and Berrios (or some of the AA guys are here) can pitch, this team is at best "meh", imo. 

 

Of the systems I know about, Baseruns tends to be the furthest off and typically in the upward direction.  It's been proven that BaseRuns overvalues events when the team produces between .500 and .800 OBP, which I am guessing happens when a team has any decisive win.

 

Fangraph's description of what BaseRuns is doing is pretty goofy, so ignore what's on that page.  

 

I have my own system which I will share sometime.  It shows the Twins are a *little* underperforming but it's not by much.  

[Platoon]

(But overall I agree....Grossman can't start. I think his struggles are overstated due to how frequent and recent they've been, but as a fourth outfield/platoon guy you can get by with him.)

 

A fourth OF really should be able to play CF a little. That is not in RB's repertoire. Add the fact his arm is almost too weak to play LF, I am not sure RF is on his "can do" list either.

[Mike Sixel]

I sorted FG defense for LF with 200 or more ABs....Grossman was bottom five. I know, SSS, but it is the sample we have.

[SwainZag]

 

I don't think anyone suggested moving Polanco to 3B if he can play a good SS.  Willinghammer asked for multiple options in case Plouffe left, and 4 different things went wrong.  Polanco would be one of those options.  

 

Sano would be my starting 3rd baseman, Polanco would be my starting SS or 2nd baseman, depending on what they do with Dozier.  Plouffe would not be in the equation

 

So the left side of your infield has Polonco at SS, who has played 3000 innings at SS with a .933 fielding percentage and Sano at 3B with his 3700 innings of .902 fielding percentage.  Not that I don't think they can improve, but that's a lot of unsure defense put on one side of the infield.  On paper their bats play, but it's a lot of risk IMO.

[d-mac]

 

I sorted FG defense for LF with 200 or more ABs....Grossman was bottom five. I know, SSS, but it is the sample we have.

 

It's not reflective of his career numbers. Previous years he's rated as average defensively in left. 

[TheLeviathan]

It's a lot of risk to play Polanco and Sano on the left side, but I see 2017 as a year to shake out this roster before we take a big stride forward.  We can't shake things out until we give those two kids a long rope to play and let them struggle at times while we work with them every day to improve.

 

Having Polanco at short and Sano at third helps this team tremendously.  Plouffe isn't worth sacrificing any of the other bats for.  Deal him, cut him, move on.

[DocBauer]

NOT saying we should keep Plouffe. But hypothetically, were he retained on a fair contract for another season, he could 1B3B and DH, possibly play a little corner OF and be a decent bench bat all without having to be a full time starter.

 

4 OF

2 1B/DH

3 INF

1 UTILITY INF

2 C

 

That leaves room for Plouffe as another role player/utility type. I don't know that it's ideal or even what I want...but there is some merit to the idea.

[alarp33]

So the left side of your infield has Polonco at SS, who has played 3000 innings at SS with a .933 fielding percentage and Sano at 3B with his 3700 innings of .902 fielding percentage.  Not that I don't think they can improve, but that's a lot of unsure defense put on one side of the infield.  On paper their bats play, but it's a lot of risk IMO.

Well that depends on Dozier, who I would try to trade if his value is as high as some on here think it may be. If he's traded, I play Polanco at 2B and Escobar/ stop gap SS.

 

But to answer your question, yeah I'm fine with that left side of IF if Dozier isn't dealt. Probably would be one of better left sides offensively in AL, and when I really want to win in 2018 I need to know what I have in those two, position wise. Nothing wrong with signing a utility IF, or playing Escobar 60 games (with Sano moving to DH those nights)

[Brandon Warne]

 

A fourth OF really should be able to play CF a little. That is not in RB's repertoire. Add the fact his arm is almost too weak to play LF, I am not sure RF is on his "can do" list either.

 

Should but doesn't have to if you have Kepler, Rosario and Santana on the roster.