A Pivotal Offseason for the Offense

[Brandon Warne]

Wrote an article about the upcoming offseason, and how the GM -- whomever it is -- will handle it heading into next year

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/minnesota-twins/making-sense-of-the-offseason-to-come-for-the-twins/

 

comments and discussion, as always, are welcome/encouraged

[Mike Sixel]

You talk about not giving away the SS defense, and keep Grossman and Santana on the roster? Buxton can't hit. I don't see him in MN to begin next year, what do you do? Grossman makes Young look like Willie Mays.*

 

Why are the Braves trading for a 30 year old, at the beginning of their rebuild?

 

*exaggeration for effect, clearly, more like Kirby Puckett

[Brandon Warne]

 

You talk about not giving away the SS defense, and keep Grossman and Santana on the roster? Buxton can't hit. I don't see him in MN to begin next year, what do you do? Grossman makes Young look like Willie Mays.*

 

Why are the Braves trading for a 30 year old, at the beginning of their rebuild?

 

*exaggeration for effect, clearly, more like Kirby Puckett

 

They think they're at the end of their rebuild. I, I am less sure. But either way, it was a hypothetical. You need to get *that* kind of pitcher to move Dozier. 

[Brandon Warne]

Also, giving away shortstop defense matters a lot more since that guy is on the field all the time. Grossman and Santana wouldn't be. They'd be little-used backups (at least if it were me in charge).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also, giving away shortstop defense matters a lot more since that guy is on the field all the time. Grossman and Santana wouldn't be. They'd be little-used backups (at least if it were me in charge).

 

If Buxton is on the roster...Grossman is terrible, possibly the worst defensive LF in the game.

[Brandon Warne]

 

If Buxton is on the roster...Grossman is terrible, possibly the worst defensive LF in the game.

 

If Buxton isn't on the roster, I'm signing someone. Gomez on a one-year, bounceback deal isn't the worst idea. 

[Brandon Warne]

(But overall I agree....Grossman can't start. I think his struggles are overstated due to how frequent and recent they've been, but as a fourth outfield/platoon guy you can get by with him.) 

[Doomtints]

 

Wrote an article about the upcoming offseason, and how the GM -- whomever it is -- will handle it heading into next year

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/al/minnesota-twins/making-sense-of-the-offseason-to-come-for-the-twins/

 

comments and discussion, as always, are welcome/encouraged

 

 

At some point last offseason I dd a regression analysis on runs scored by all teams last year.  The result was (and I'm going by memory here) although the Twins finished something like 10th in offense last year, in a normal season that production would have been something like 15th.  This meant that the Twins needed to vastly improve their offense in 2016 just to stay the same as they were in 2015.  

 

The Twins didn't do this.  They became a younger team almost from top to bottom offensively and, as younger teams will do, they had a very slow start.  Ryan was smart in seeing the potential of these players (as evidenced by their improvements over time) but he was dead wrong about them being ready and about who was ready.  (Kepler was ready but wasn't starting, Buxton wasn't ready and was starting, etc.)

 

The point is, the Twins couldn't roll with the same couple of core guys, add more rookies, and then expect to come out of the gate with a good offense.

 

The pitching is a tougher nut to crack because bad guys are blocking young guys, bad guys are blocking trades and free agents, and on top of that if you get rid of the bad guys for the young guys the young guys will all have adjustment periods.  The pitching was mismanaged terribly and it will take a new GM a lot of creativity, a lot of money, and probably a lot of time to fix it.

[Willihammer]

One thing with the Braves is they're opening a new park next year. Maybe they'll need to make a few win-now moves over the winter to sell tix.

 

I think it would be foolish to pencil in anyone but Plouffe at third next year. Certainly not Sano.

 

The entire outfield D depends on a true CF. With an average CF they can keep Rosario and Kepler in corners where they belong.

 

I hate to see Sano sitting in NL games. He should pick up a 1B glove at some point. Mauer should grab a 3B glove too.

 

I wonder what kind of price Vargas would command in trade.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

I think it would be foolish to pencil in anyone but Plouffe at third next year. Certainly not Sano.

 

 

In what way is it foolish, exactly? Are you planning on competing, or rebuilding? 

 

If you plan to compete, setting in stone a 31 year old with a career .246/.307/.417 line (coming off a .255/.290/.393 season) and declining 3rd base skills seems like an odd route to take. 

 

If you plan to rebuild, paying that player $5-10 million to play 3rd seems even more odd

[Han Joelo]

I like the jigsaw.  This team struggled early on from too many people trying to be the whole picture, rather than just a piece, and were over-exposed as a result.  I don't know if I'd mess with the chemistry this offense has built, other than at catcher.  Come on, let Garver be viable!

 

I think a veteran CF might be a must.  Keep the pressure off of Buxton, keep Santana and Grossman from being overused.  Best case scenario, Buxton forces his way onto the team, and said CF becomes a trade chip.

 

How to fix the pitching...no idea.  I'd sooner gamble on Rich Hill types than any other options.  I feel burnt by the Span trade.  Even if it was hypothetically possible to get a Teheran, I'm not sure I give up Dozier for one pitcher.

[Doomtints]

 

I hate to see Sano sitting in NL games. He should pick up a 1B glove at some point. Mauer should grab a 3B glove too.

 

Mauer's collision risk goes up if he were to play 3rd.  Not gonna happen.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is more the sliding puzzle, than the jig saw. And, instead of one open space, you have three extra tiles/squares.....

[Willihammer]

 

In what way is it foolish, exactly? Are you planning on competing, or rebuilding? 

 

If you plan to compete, setting in stone a 31 year old with a career .246/.307/.417 line (coming off a .255/.290/.393 season) and declining 3rd base skills seems like an odd route to take. 

 

If you plan to rebuild, paying that player $5-10 million to play 3rd seems even more odd

2016 is pretty clearly an outlier, both offensively and defensively. He'll be 31, not 41. He can still be productive, especially if he regains health and he'll be on a contract year. In which case his 5-10m arb contract would be an excellent use of payroll space and make him attractive as a trade chip if the season goes south.

There's a high likelihood Sano can't cut it at third, either because of his glove or his elbow. If we non-tender Plouffe, and Sano doesn't cut it, or breaks his arm, then what?

[Mike Sixel]

 

2016 is pretty clearly an outlier, both offensively and defensively. He'll be 31, not 41. He can still be productive, especially if he regains health and he'll be on a contract year. In which case his 5-10m arb contract would be an excellent use of payroll space and make him attractive as a trade chip if the season goes south.

There's a high likelihood Sano can't cut it at third, either because of his glove or his elbow. If we non-tender Plouffe, and Sano doesn't cut it, or breaks his arm, then what?

 

if you keep Plouffe, you are pretty much relegating Sano to DH. that's fine, if that is your plan.....but is that what you want the plan to be? 

 

Me?

 

Unless the doctors say otherwise, I put Sano at 3B next year as plan A, with Polanco as plan B. But, I definitely don't keep a 3B only player around to block Sano. I can understand those that just want to move Sano to DH now, though...

[alarp33]

 

2016 is pretty clearly an outlier, both offensively and defensively. He'll be 31, not 41. He can still be productive, especially if he regains health and he'll be on a contract year. In which case his 5-10m arb contract would be an excellent use of payroll space and make him attractive as a trade chip if the season goes south.

There's a high likelihood Sano can't cut it at third, either because of his glove or his elbow. If we non-tender Plouffe, and Sano doesn't cut it, or breaks his arm, then what?

 

I guess that doesn't answer my question exactly, even if 2016 was an outlier (offensively, I tend to agree, defensively.. range goes with age, his is poor).  

 

What are you accomplishing by demanding him back ("foolish to pencil anyone else in")? Are you trying to win now, or down the road?  

 

Even if we ignore 2016, his 2015 OBP + SLG%'s are below league avg for 3rd baseman.  His career OBP has never reached the 2016 league avg for 3B (.333), and his slg% has reached the 2016 league avg once, in 2012 (.448 avg, Plouffe at .455 4 years ago).  You think it's wise to potentially pay up to $10 million for a below avg offensive 3rd baseman, who also isn't good defensively there? 

 

The backup plan to Sano at 3rd? Polanco, free agent, trade, plenty of options that are more enticing than Trevor Plouffe (especially Trevor Plouffe at anywhere approaching $10/million)

[Willihammer]

 

I guess that doesn't answer my question exactly, even if 2016 was an outlier (offensively, I tend to agree, defensively.. range goes with age, his is poor).  

 

What are you accomplishing by demanding him back ("foolish to pencil anyone else in")? Are you trying to win now, or down the road?  

 

Even if we ignore 2016, his 2015 OBP + SLG%'s are below league avg for 3rd baseman.  His career OBP has never reached the 2016 league avg for 3B (.333), and his slg% has reached the 2016 league avg once, in 2012 (.448 avg, Plouffe at .455 4 years ago).  You think it's wise to potentially pay up to $10 million for a below avg offensive 3rd baseman, who also isn't good defensively there? 

 

The backup plan to Sano at 3rd? Polanco, free agent, trade, plenty of options that are more enticing than Trevor Plouffe (especially Trevor Plouffe at anywhere approaching $10/million)

OK, let's say Plouffe is non-tendered and bounces back with some other team. That is value lost. That doesn't help in a rebuild or a competitive year. Since his 2016 season is probably an outlier, he'd be an excellent pickup for any club in the middle of the rebuild. And since he is the best 3B in-house, he also happens to be the best fit in a surprise competitive season for the Twins, unless you replace him with an external player who would also cost a roster spot, money and/or prospects, block Sano, etc. 1 year of Plouffe at 5-10m is probably going to be money well spent in either case.

 

In the event Plouffe is non-tendered, Sano fails at third, and Polanco shifts over, what do you do about the hole *that* creates at SS? Escobar? An external pickup there?

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK, let's say Plouffe is non-tendered and bounces back with some other team. That is value lost. That doesn't help in a rebuild or a competitive year. Since his 2016 season is probably an outlier, he'd be an excellent pickup for any club in the middle of the rebuild. And since he is the best 3B in-house, he also happens to be the best fit in a surprise competitive season for the Twins, unless you replace him with an external player who would also cost a roster spot, money and/or prospects, block Sano, etc. 1 year of Plouffe at 5-10m is probably going to be money well spent in either case.

 

In the event Plouffe is non-tendered, Sano fails at third, and Polanco shifts over, what do you do about the hole *that* creates at SS? Escobar? An external pickup there?

 

so, if everything goes wrong, what do you do? Is that the question?

 

Are you keeping Plouffe and Sano? Who plays 3B most of the time in your scenario? Are you keeping Vargas?

 

Your entire post, to me, reads like "well, things could go badly if I do something, therefore I'm going to stand pat".....on a team that is one of the five worst in all of baseball...

[alarp33]

 

OK, let's say Plouffe is non-tendered and bounces back with some other team. That is value lost. That doesn't help in a rebuild or a competitive year. Since his 2016 season is probably an outlier, he'd be an excellent pickup for any club in the middle of the rebuild. And since he is the best 3B in-house, he also happens to be the best fit in a surprise competitive season for the Twins, unless you replace him with an external player who would also cost a roster spot, money and/or prospects, block Sano, etc. 1 year of Plouffe at 5-10m is probably going to be money well spent in either case.

 

In the event Plouffe is non-tendered, Sano fails at third, and Polanco shifts over, what do you do about the hole *that* creates at SS? Escobar? An external pickup there?

 

If Plouffe is non-tendered and IF he bounces back, good for him. I don't see any lost value by non tendering, because he will hold no value this offseason (no one is trading for him)

 

Excellent pick-up for any club? I'm guessing he would have trouble finding a contract ( I think most teams would see him as a platoon candidate, 1B, 3B, DH type)... David Freese had to wait until mid March to sign a 1 year, $3 million deal, and he had a much better track record entering 2016 than Plouffe will have entering 2017.  

 

Best 3rd baseman in house? I would say Sano's offense makes him a much better option than Plouffe, even if he struggles at 3rd.  I would also say Polanco would likely be an upgrade offensively and defensively.  

 

You are arguing tons of hypothetical s that center around a below average 3rd baseman having a career season, and literally no other internal option be even capable of finding 3rd base, let alone playing it. 

[Willihammer]

 

so, if everything goes wrong, what do you do? Is that the question?

 

Are you keeping Plouffe and Sano? Who plays 3B most of the time in your scenario? Are you keeping Vargas?

 

Your entire post, to me, reads like "well, things could go badly if I do something, therefore I'm going to stand pat".....on a team that is one of the five worst in all of baseball...

With Sano "everything going wrong" is a probability in my estimation. It is the most likely outcome. First, you have a player who in over 3000 innings of work at third base, commits an error once every ten plays. That won't cut it at the big league level. Then you have a doomsday scenario involving Sano's elbow. He is a TJ case and recently experienced elbow "discomfort".  In the doomsday scenario, Sano breaks his UCL again, and Jay-Z calls him and says "get the surgery again" because his client maximizes his value being at least physically capable of playing the field (if not very well). Then the Twins lose his bat for 14 months again, Polanco plays third and a hole is opened at SS.

 

What I'd do- keep Plouffe at third, Polanco at SS, move Sano to DH/1B, and try to find a suitor for Vargas in trade, or keep him on the bench next season with Park in AAA to start the season.

[Willihammer]

 

Best 3rd baseman in house? I would say Sano's offense makes him a much better option than Plouffe, even if he struggles at 3rd.  I would also say Polanco would likely be an upgrade offensively and defensively.  

 

You are arguing tons of hypothetical s that center around a below average 3rd baseman having a career season, and literally no other internal option be even capable of finding 3rd base, let alone playing it. 

You think Polanco being an upgrade over Plouffe offensively and defensively might be a hypothetical?

[Han Joelo]

 

so, if everything goes wrong, what do you do? Is that the question?

 

Are you keeping Plouffe and Sano? Who plays 3B most of the time in your scenario? Are you keeping Vargas?

 

Your entire post, to me, reads like "well, things could go badly if I do something, therefore I'm going to stand pat".....on a team that is one of the five worst in all of baseball...

I wouldn't argue they are a way off from contending, but as they currently stand, and have played for the last couple of months, are they truly one of the five worst?

 

Maybe they are, but that is due to pitching.  I have no solutions for that, other than to be exactly right on finding the next Rich Hill, Jake Arrieta, and trading Brian Dozier for Michael Fullmer and not Zach Wheeler or (fill in the blank with injured or ineffective young pitcher.)

[alarp33]

 

You think Polanco being an upgrade over Plouffe offensively and defensively might be a hypothetical?

 

Well since the sample size is so small, I won't go into Polanco's numbers.... but no I don't think it is unrealistic in the least to expect him to be able to surpass a .246/.307/.417 (Plouffe carer) line, in fact I would say its very likely.  

 

I think so little of Plouffe's defense at 3rd (it was pretty good in 2013, that was a long time ago), I don't even necessarily think Plouffe in 2017 at 3rd is something Sano in 2017 can't match, let alone Polanco.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wouldn't argue they are a way off from contending, but as they currently stand, and have played for the last couple of months, are they truly one of the five worst?

 

Maybe they are, but that is due to pitching.  I have no solutions for that, other than to be exactly right on finding the next Rich Hill, Jake Arrieta, and trading Brian Dozier for Michael Fullmer and not Zach Wheeler or (fill in the blank with injured or ineffective young pitcher.)

 

I don't know.....the defense is still terrible, until Buxton can hit. The pitching? I have confidence in 2 of them (and really, that's 1, with sort of confidence in two....). The hitting? The sophomore slump appears to be a real thing, so Kepler should drop off. I Rosario is who he is. Escobar and Plouffe are who they are. The catchers? Probably won't hit this well next year.

 

I think they are probably one of the 5-10 worst teams next year, unless Buxton learns how to hit. In which case they might, maybe, if things go well, be closer to middle of the pack.

[Vanimal46]

I respect your stance Willihammer. Especially when it's not the popular choice. But by god, I'm going to root for exactly the opposite of what you're proposing. 

[Doomtints]

 

You think Polanco being an upgrade over Plouffe offensively and defensively might be a hypothetical?

 

If you have a guy who can defend well in the middle of the field, you don't move him to third, especially if he can hit too.  Having good bats in the middle of the infield and at catcher are the two toughest things to do.

[alarp33]

 

If you have a guy who can defend well in the middle of the field, you don't move him to third, especially if he can hit too.  Having good bats in the middle of the infield and at catcher are the two toughest things to do.

 

I don't think anyone suggested moving Polanco to 3B if he can play a good SS.  Willinghammer asked for multiple options in case Plouffe left, and 4 different things went wrong.  Polanco would be one of those options.  

 

Sano would be my starting 3rd baseman, Polanco would be my starting SS or 2nd baseman, depending on what they do with Dozier.  Plouffe would not be in the equation

[d-mac]

 

(But overall I agree....Grossman can't start. I think his struggles are overstated due to how frequent and recent they've been, but as a fourth outfield/platoon guy you can get by with him.) 

 

I think Grossman is not as bad as the metrics are making him out to be defensively this year. Between 2013-2015 there were 35 players to log at least 1,000 innings in LF. Grossman was 12th of 35 in DRS with +3, 7th in RZR with .911, and 19th in UZR/150 with 0.8. In a comparable number of innings Josh Willingham was 28th in DRS with -8, 5th in RZR with .916 (apparently he was good at making routine plays), and 30th in UZR/150 with -10.1. 

[d-mac]

 

2016 is pretty clearly an outlier, both offensively and defensively. He'll be 31, not 41. He can still be productive, especially if he regains health and he'll be on a contract year. In which case his 5-10m arb contract would be an excellent use of payroll space and make him attractive as a trade chip if the season goes south.

There's a high likelihood Sano can't cut it at third, either because of his glove or his elbow. If we non-tender Plouffe, and Sano doesn't cut it, or breaks his arm, then what?

 

In the post-steroid era, 31 is the new 41. 

[d-mac]

 

OK, let's say Plouffe is non-tendered and bounces back with some other team. That is value lost. That doesn't help in a rebuild or a competitive year. Since his 2016 season is probably an outlier, he'd be an excellent pickup for any club in the middle of the rebuild. And since he is the best 3B in-house, he also happens to be the best fit in a surprise competitive season for the Twins, unless you replace him with an external player who would also cost a roster spot, money and/or prospects, block Sano, etc. 1 year of Plouffe at 5-10m is probably going to be money well spent in either case.

 

In the event Plouffe is non-tendered, Sano fails at third, and Polanco shifts over, what do you do about the hole *that* creates at SS? Escobar? An external pickup there?

 

You're too caught up on return value. Does he fit in the plans two years down the road? No. Then we shouldn't pay him $10 million to take away opportunity from Sano/Polanco at 3b and/or Vargas/Park at DH.