So what happens if the Twins DO trade Ervin Santana?

[DocBauer]

I was thinking about this today in the car, listening to the end of the game, and rolling through various possibilities regarding the roster, changes, next season, etc.

 

We can...and often do...debate the merits and potential of youngsters Duffey, Berrios, May and (the still young) Gibson as parts of the Twins rotation plans. I include May here because a} he has been a SP, b} it only makes logical sense to look at him again as such considering, c} he did get an all too brief "audition" in ST as a starter, d} Ryan has referenced before that the Twins still see him as a potential SP, and e} any new GM with any intelligence at all (should a change take place) would also more than likely want to see him in that role again.

 

It is not far fetched, and I dare say even logical, to see 4 rotation spots in 2017...if not sooner...portioned out to Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and May. But who is the 5th SP if Santana, as trade rumors and reports speculate that he may be one of the more enticing rotation trade acquisition targets, is in fact moved?

 

Surely the team wouldn't keep Nolasco for his final season under contract would they?

 

You can't possibly count on Hughes can you?

 

Do the Twins go and sign yet another veteran to fill the spot and provide that veteran influence? Maybe someone on a 1 year make good contract?

 

Do they go out and trade for a veteran or young-ish veteran who doesn't fit in with his current team's plans any longer and needs a change of scenery?

 

What do you think they should do if teams come calling and they move Santana?

[olivia11]

Since Hughes and Nolasco are pretty untradeable right now, I think a Santana trade is really going to be important to give chances in the 2017 rotation to the right guys. 

 

Here's how I'd like to see it shake out:

 

Second half of 2016:

I'd love to see May back starting but it might not be smart to put him in a starting role this late in the season. Especially with the injuries he's sad as a reliever.  Have May finish the year as a reliever and get him ready to come in as a starter at Spring Training.  That leaves a rotation of: Gibson, Nolasco, Duffey, Berrios (in no particular order).  With the last spot I'd use a revolving door of Dean, Wheeler, Darnell, Milone, a waiver pick-up, whoever, might as well see what we've got with a couple of these guys and maybe Tommy can finish the year strong and be an offseason trade candidate.  If Dean, Wheeler, Darnell do okay, it would be nice to consider them at least replacement-level depth in the event of an injury in early 2017. 

 

First half of 2017:

I don't think we can count on Hughes at all.  Since his injury is so unique/hard to come back from, for the purpose of this post, I'm not going to consider him at all for 2017.   That leaves a rotation of: Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios, Nolasco.  Nolasco's done fine this year, especially compared to others in the rotation.  Let him start the year and see what happens.  Maybe we can trade him at the trade deadline.  Maybe he's horrible and in the last year of his contract we DFA him.

 

Second half of 2017:

By this point, I'd like to see Nolasco out of the picture.  Even if he's doing fine as a 5th starter, he's not going to be part of the winning Twins teams of (hopefully) the very near future.  By this point let's roll with a rotation of: Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios, and whoever emerges first out of Gonsalves or Stewart. 

 

This should set us up for a solid 2018 opening day rotation with some solid experience under their belt.

 

[TheLeviathan]

We might get someone to buy low on Nolasco, hoping that a competent defense and a better environment might make for a bargain.  

 

But, yeah, Santana is mroe likely.  

[Thrylos]

hate it when the only guy who can be a true ace in the Twins' organization is dismissed because of misuse and general minor league Twins player development malaise...

 

Alex John Meyer.  That's who.

[Kwak]

Given Ryan's comment about "prospects", this means that Ryan has been replaced and a slash in the payroll. There will be a merry-go-round of pitchers between the Twins and the minors--probably ten people used as a minimum. Hughes will miss the first half of the season and maybe the second half as well. Gibson, Nolasco are a given for April. They are likely joined by Duffey and Berrios. A fifth could be anybody. Expect to see just about everybody, likely more than once!

[The Wise One]

There is no reason to think that Hughes will not be ready for spring training. It is not like Perkins' procedure.

 

May to the rotation would not happen until next year. The season would be done by the time he got up to innings.

 

Santana or Nolasco would be not the first choice for a team looking for a starter. Ones and Twos get expensive. Read somewhere the asking price was usually high enough to discourage trading. Twins asking price? Good question. Depends on how bad somebody wants to buy.   Dylan Bundy for one if Baltimore comes calling?

[Mr. Brooks]

There is no reason to think that Hughes will not be ready for spring training. It is not like Perkins' procedure.

 

May to the rotation would not happen until next year. The season would be done by the time he got up to innings.

 

Santana or Nolasco would be not the first choice for a team looking for a starter. Ones and Twos get expensive. Read somewhere the asking price was usually high enough to discourage trading. Twins asking price? Good question. Depends on how bad somebody wants to buy. Dylan Bundy for one if Baltimore comes calling?

It only takes a month to get fully stretched out.

May could be fully stretched out with no restrictions by August 3rd.

That leaves 2 full months of starting. That's not even close to the end of the season.

[DJSim22]

 

hate it when the only guy who can be a true ace in the Twins' organization is dismissed because of misuse and general minor league Twins player development malaise...

 

Alex John Meyer.  That's who.

 

What has Meyer done to deserve this tag?  I'm all for getting him back to the bigs before the end of the season, but the kid hasn't show he can handle it yet. 

[DJSim22]

 

 

It only takes a month to get fully stretched out.
May could be fully stretched out with no restrictions by August 3rd.
That leaves 2 full months of starting. That's not even close to the end of the season.

 

August 3rd if you do it right now, and they don't seem to be.  It makes more sense to me to wait till 2017 spring training, although I'm not sure Ryan will even do it then. 

 

I suspect if Santana is traded (and I would bet 65/35 he won't be) I see the following:

 

Gibson

Nolasco

Berrrios

Duffy

Bargin bin Veteran to mentor/ innings eater (which is why Ryan will keep Santana)

 

Wheeler gets first look when Nolasco or Gibson hits the DL. 

 

 

[The Wise One]

 

It only takes a month to get fully stretched out.
May could be fully stretched out with no restrictions by August 3rd.
That leaves 2 full months of starting. That's not even close to the end of the season.

How uncharacteristically optimistic of you.  Coming of an injury and making mechanical adjustments you expect things to go near perfectly for May and the Twins. Optimistic about the Twins and it is not April 1.

[The Wise One]

• Bud Norris brought back 2 prospects that were not in the top 30 of Dodger prospects     So does the Twins system need another CK Irby and Luke Bard?  That is what you might get for Santana, maybe one of those for Nolasco.  Of course Feldman did bring back a decent prospect.  As did Hammel

[Platoon]

This is a reversal of my normal thought process, but I would keep Ervin. I don't think enough can be gotten for him to make any difference, and he is healthy and could be worthwhile. I would dump Nolasco, that's a lost cause, and not count on Hughes at all. Anything from him is just gravy from here on out. The extension was idiotic, but it's history. May has broken down twice as a RP. I guess we will get to see if the old fool me once, fool me twice...... Comes into play. I do know that with the paucity of DECENT starting pitching on this staff, I would convert him back to SP.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Santana might be the better trade chip, but I think I'd rather DFA/trade Nolasco and keep Santana.  I don't see him netting much and think he'd be of more value to the Twins on the team than through whatever he'd get.

[HitInAPinch]

If Santana were a real innings eater, I'd keep him around to give the bullpen a break.  But at 33yrs old, I don't think that'll be the case.  I'd still rather keep him around than Hughes and Nolasco combined.  

[lukeduke1980]

how about Felix Jorge on the fast track for rotation 2017?

[dbminn]

 

 

• Bud Norris brought back 2 prospects that were not in the top 30 of Dodger prospects     So does the Twins system need another CK Irby and Luke Bard?  That is what you might get for Santana, maybe one of those for Nolasco.  Of course Feldman did bring back a decent prospect.  As did Hammel

 

 

The Braves also got $6 million is salary relief by including Dian Toscano in the trade. He's a 27 year old Cuban signee who is having an awful year at AA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With 2 1/2 seasons left on his contract, I doubt Santana will return much, if anything, at the deadline. Especially considering the seasons he's having.

 

I'd prefer to see Nolasco be moved or waived at whatever cost that requires. The same goes for Milone.

[The Wise One]

 

The Braves also got $6 million is salary relief by including Dian Toscano in the trade. He's a 27 year old Cuban signee who is having an awful year at AA.

As Chief has said, it is only money. The owners have a lot of it so no bfd. about salary relief.