Hope for the Rotation?

[DocBauer]

My intention here is a hopeful and positive spin on the Twins rotation, not another FO or Molitor bash. I really think there are some positive things to examine at this point in regard to the Twins rotation going forward, and I felt it was time to look and reflect on the rotation going forward.

 

Santana is not an ACE pitcher, though he has had a few seasons in which he has pitched like one. What he has done, however, is carve out a very solid and reliable career as a SP, almost exclusively in the AL, which has always proved to be the better hitting league. Once back with the Twins in 2015, after his suspension, he was solid initially, fell in to a poor run for a time, then finished very strong. Healthy again now, and hopefully for the rest of the season, he pitched a very nice game on Saturday to get the win. Going forward, he should be solid, reliable, and a veteran stalwart.

 

We could still argue Duffey is in the SSS category, but except for his first start in 2015, he was good to outstanding the rest of the way. For whatever reason, his ST simply didn't go well and he began the season at Rochester. After a couple quality outings there, he was brought quickly back up and seems to have picked up right where he left off, including a masterful performance today to get the Twins their 10th win of the season. WHOO HOO! What makes him so interesting is he was never regarded as a top prospect, but if you look at his milb numbers/seasons, he showed real development and seeming constant improvement. Further, while a solid change could make him even more effective, there seems to be a fallacy that he s only a 2 pitch pitcher. There is another thread on TD with some quality links that delve in to this myth, but in short, he throws 2 very different fastballs, where he will smartly change speeds, and each has a different action. More, he throws a slower, more traditional curve, and a more powerful version that has more of a slider actio.

 

Berrios has proven all he really can at the milb level. He is not a finished ML pitcher by any means, but he has the stuff and the move to be very good. He is still learning on the job, still having some rough patches, but has looked solid and filled with potential. He has even drawn raves from various persons watching/announcing his games. Demoting him for any reason other than just a series of poor performances, at this point, would be illogical, short-sighted and reprehensible. I just don't think it's going to happen. And it shouldnt. He's only going to get better.

 

That's three. Three spots out of five. Who's next?

 

It absolutely has to be Gibson. Look, I get that his 2016 got off to a rough start. (So has most of the team!) And because he's not 24 or 25 some want to downgrade him and his future potential. And really, we're not entirely sure what has caused his poor start: bad luck, a poor early feel, trying too hard, or battling the injury that has temporarily shelved him. But as a player/prospect, you almost have to downgrade his age simply due to his TJ surgery. What's more, his milb 2013 comeback was pretty outstanding. His promotion didn't go so well, but give the guy a break as a result. His 2014 was solid, at times very good, and he really was a rookie, save something like a 1/3 of an inning at the ML level. Forgetting W-L record, he was even better in 2015 virtually across the board. It's easy to say a pitcher looks good when he pitches well, but at times, Gibson has looked borderline dominant. He may never be the stud SP we originally hoped for, but he's quality, and still has room for improvement.

 

From there, it's an "I don't know" situation. Nolasco has been OK, better than he's been, but not part of the future of this team. Hughes has clearly disappointed thus far. Milone is not the answer or part of the future either. But having 4 SP pitchers in place, 3 of them young, is a really nice start. Is this where we begin the May arguement again? Or does Meyer, despite a recent but of reportedly mild shoulder soreness, get in a groove again at Rochester and take the 5th SP spot a few weeks from now? Is it possible Wheeler is this year's version of Duffey?

 

In a seemingly lost season, looking for the positives, I feel Santana, Duffey, Berrios and Gibson when healthy again, start to make this rotation look like something we can get behind.

 

Thoughts?

[Mr. Brooks]

I still feel that SP is where we have the furthest to go to be legit WS contenders one day.

 

As we saw in the 2k's, a bunch of average starters can get you to the playoffs, but you need top of the rotation arms to go deep.

 

I think Berrios will be a #2, with a chance to be an ace.

 

I think Duffey could be a very solid #3.

 

Gibson I guess could be a passable 4 or 5, though I'm not as sold as some.

 

Santana at this age is a 4, but it really doesn't matter, he won't be a significant piece by the time we are ready to compete.

 

Hughes and Nolasco don't belong in any rotation, IMO.

 

May could be a solid 2 or 3, but I think he's stuck in the bullpen for good without a regime change.

 

Meyer, who knows, but personally I still love his upside.

But, I don't think he'll ever get a legit shot here.

 

There is some hope in the low minors, but I like to see how they fare at AA before getting excited.

 

Bottom line, I still don't see a ton of hope here. At least not in the near future, until we see how those Ft. Myers boys do at the higher levels.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Meyer, who knows, but personally I still love his upside.
But, I don't think he'll ever get a legit shot here.
 

 

Sadly, I agree.

 

As for the article, I certainly hope you are right. When the bats finally come around it would be nice to have some solid pitching to give us a chance with just 3 or 4 runs sometimes.

 

As for the bullpen, we need the youngsters (Shaggy, et al)to begin stepping up soon.

Like, real soon.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Somebody's been bitten by the positivity bug!

[nytwinsfan]

Agree with the people above. Gotta give Meyer another shot.

 

A rotation of:

Berrios

Meyer

Duffey

Santana

Gibson

 

could be very good.

[DocBauer]

Somebody's been bitten by the positivity bug!

GUILTY!

 

But I really do like this group, overall, excluding the 5th spot and a true #1.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I suspect Gibson gets traded at some point, especially if Hughes remains in the picture as a starter.  I don't really see him going anywhere, even though I think he'd do wonders for the pen right now.

[Han Joelo]

I like the OP, especially the positivity part of it.  The long-term, WS winning rotation needs some work, but things are starting to shake out.  Wouldn't be surprised to see something happen with Hughes soon, bullpen or DL.  A hot streak from Santana, and he could be excellent trade bait for a contender.

 

Nolasco MIGHT pitch himself into a tradable spot, he's shown sparks.  

 

I'm sure it is the euphoria of two straight wins talking, but at least when Duffey and Santana pitch, I feel like the Twins have a chance to win based on the possibility of a good pitching performance.  Berrios, I'm waiting for longer starts.  Nolasco, flip a coin.  Hughes, flip a Moebius strip.

 

I think Gibson has it in him to be a dependable mid-rotation starter, if he gets things straightened out.

[ashbury]

I no longer believe much in Gibson. He's too inconsistent to be a real contributor to the 100 win team that I want us to be shooting for. I'm sure the spirit is willing, but something about the flesh is weak for him.

 

I think also that a 35-year old Santana in 2018 is a risk.

 

Here's hoping that one of the arms on the farm will come through in the next year and half and become something to rely on. That's the cautiously optimistic side speaking. I'm actually pretty worried.

[Twinfan & Dad]

I agree with you that the four mentioned have promise. I'm still holding out hope that Berrios can be a legit Number 1 starter. Only time will tell but no way can you send him back down. We know Terry Ryan loves signing number 5 guys Pelfrey, Nolasco, Correia so maybe the 4th or 5th or is it 10th time is a charm for his unadvised signings. We know that he won't spend the money for a true number 1 but maybe one of our young guys will surprise.

 

[Old Twins Cap]

MLB pitchers go up and down.  As it is, Duffy is fun to watch pitch.  And so is Berrios, almost more because you can imagine them becoming really good than because they are dominant.

 

I enjoyed watching Meyer the other night.  And my thought was:  "Whatever else, do not give up on this guy.  He can hurl." 

 

Gibson has been the funnest to watch pitch until Duffy and Berrios come along.  I hope he doesn't become an enigma, wrapped inside a riddle, surrounded by a conundrum.

 

TR doesn't handle those things well.

 

[HitInAPinch]

Nice writeup, Doc! 

 

The thing that Santana does better than most is the pace of the game.  You'll see some pitchers fiddle around the mound and watch the catcher run through every sign before he selects the pitch he wants.  Santana goes out there with a plan.  If it's a young [and FABULOUS]  catcher like Centeno, he calls him out to the mound. 

 

Duffey:  I don't think a SSS is an issue.  He's got 82 innings in over 2 season.  He's a keeper.  With a little luck and support, he could be a Greg Maddox-type pitcher.

 

Berrios, 14 MLB innings is a REAL SSS.  It's not very good.  Pretty sure he'll get a couple more MLB starts.

 

Gibson:  Always thought his upside is a .500 innings eating pitcher.

 

Nolasco:  Stop me if you've heard this before.  A few good starts at the beginning of the year, then 1 bad start followed by a few more bad starts.  THEN, a trip to DL.  The pattern is already re-emerging,

 

Hughes:  Like Nolasco, nothing new here.

 

Meyer:  the rotation really needs a KO guy like Meyer could be.  Tighten the bolts on his neck.  Or whatever....

[Pardon My Dinger]

GUILTY!

 

But I really do like this group, overall, excluding the 5th spot and a true #1.

Agreed, wholeheartedly.

[curt1965]

Of all the current pitchers, Duffy is my favorite. Not the most talented (Berrios), but the most fun to watch.

I love his attitude and fight: you can tell he is a guy who was not respected going through the system, and realizes that every pitch counts. Doc pointed out in his great write up that he is labeled as a two pitch guy, but today got a big strikeout on a change to end one Cleveland rally, and struck out Kipnis on a cutter!

Duffy is going to battle you until they pry the ball out of his bleeding hand!! I'm hoping that bulldog attitude will rub off on the rest of the staff.

[Halsey Hall]

I agree with a poster above, Gibson is a .500 pitcher at best.  It'll be at least 3 weeks before he comes back anyway, so others have time to either step up or down.