Adam Brett (AB) Walker 2016

[goulik]

OF- Rochester Red Wings

Born Oct. 18, 1991 Milwaukee

Acquired 3rd Round 2012 from Jacksonville University

Led Rookie League in 2012 with 14 HR

Led Midwest League in 2013 in HR, RBI, and Total Bases, 2nd in Slugging, and Runs.

2014 Florida State League All Star Game MVP and HR derby winner. Led the League in HR, RBI, And total bases.

2015 Led the Southern League in HR with 31 and RBI and again won the HR derby this time at AA

 

239/309/498 in 2015 with 31 2B and 31 HR. AB Walker is known for his ability to come up with the big hits in the clutch moments. His 106 RBI's last year at AA were enhanced by 18 more in the Arizona Fall League where he hit 5 more home runs against top prospects across baseball. His 34.8 K rate has everyone at least a little concerned but the fact that he gets the job done cannot be ignored. He has been added to the 40 man roster with dreams of a september call up.

[goulik]

AB is off to a slow start hitting 221/287/394 for a lowly (by his standards especially) 681 OPS. He has 4 doubles and 4 HRs in 104 at bats. He has struck out 49 times. The concerns seem well founded.

 

TURN THIS THING AROUND AB!! PROVE THE CRITICS WRONG!!

[goulik]

7 days later...

TDs MILB hitter of the day with 3 home runs and 5 RBIs

A 240 Batting Average is an improvement and closer to what we would expect. , His 314 OBP and 504 Slugging is more what we were looking for and the new 818 OPS is 18 points over his career average.

Concerns? He's striking out at record pace (for him at least). In 125 AB, he has 61 strike outs and 14 walks...

Can a guy strike out 250 times in a year, maintain an 800+ OPS, and get a Sept. Cup of coffee? Hmmmmm

[Vanimal46]

Even on this hot streak he's struck out 12 times in 21 AB? Woof.... He continues to defy all logic by having a good OPS while striking out 49% of the time. Mind.boggling. 

[goulik]

With a slash of 218/295/462, all he does is slug. His issues have been discussed and it doesn't look like things are improving over previous seasons. Unless he figures things out and gains some discipline at the plate, I don't think the Home Run potential will get him past AAA. He may have topped out his potential folks! Time will tell but I am less optimistic as this year wears on.

[goulik]

AB is now hitting 231/305/469 in 273 at bats for Rochester. These are all career low numbers. What is up is his K rate of 45.8% vs his previous high last year at 38.8% of the time. His Walk rate is up to a career high 11%. Last year he was at 10.2%. Even with all this negativity, Walker still ranks 2nd on the team with 42 RBIs to Vargas' 53 (3rd best is 26 RBIs) and he is third on the team in runs scored with 36 which is only 2 behind Vargas but 13 behind Beresford.

Walker has played exclusively in Left Field all year with 3 errors for a .964 FPCT. He has 4 outfield assists.

[Arak30s]

Seems to be improving. Hitting more consistently. Hopefully he continues.

[Mike Sixel]

46% wow......

[Dr. Evil]

There is something to be said about his tendency to come up with clutch hits. That doesn't always show clearly in a players slash line. If he struck out 40% of the time and had a 100 rbi's in a season I could live with that. Especially if he continued to be clutch. I wish he would get an extended look soon.

[goulik]

I think it's premature to "give him a look" at the MLB level. Maybe a September call up but only if he can show improvement and that he is making adjustments. His K rate has risen with each promotion and he can't be striking out 50% of the time in the majors. I do agree with the idea that he should get a look if he continues to be clutch but then he might just end up as a pinch hitter type. I could take a young Jim Thome off the bench...

[goulik]

18 doubles, 3 Triples, 22 Home runs, 58 RBI's

241/309/476 Triple slash

166 Strike outs, 38 Walks, 382 at bats.

 

Defensively he has played solely in Left Field with a 962 FPCT, 5 errors and 6 outfield assists.

 

In this lost season, I would really like to see ABW get a Sept. call up to learn a little about what he needs to work on but I think he needs to start next year in AAA and improve those strike outs. Along with the higher number of K's this year has been a decrease in RBI's. Last year his RBI/AB ratio was 21%, this year it is 15%. In plain terms, he is on pace to hit 30 fewer RBI's than last year if he ends up with the same number of at bats.

[Rosterman]

I agree. Even if he sits on the bench and does nothing but pinch-hits...it would be an eye-opening experience for him. The Twins have nothing to lose bringing him over in September.

[ashbury]

Along with the higher number of K's this year has been a decrease in RBI's.

RBI, LOL.

 

BB-ref.com doesn't provide a lot of situational stats for minor leaguers. What I found was RISP with 2 outs. Last year, he had 133 such plate appearances and got 36 RBI from them (a ratio of .27). Eight homers (.06 ratio).

 

This year so far, there are only 75 PA, and he's cashed in 22 RBI (a rate of .29). Five homers (.07 ratio).

 

His OPS this year for these specific situations is actually slightly higher than last year.

 

That's not enough data for a real study, but there's nothing in these numbers saying he's not basically the same guy as always. It's the number of opportunities that's way down. That's all it is, most likely.

 

Runs are important, and RBI are how most of them occur. They are the coin of the realm. But a counting stat like RBI is going to lead you astray time and again, because it totally ignores the number of opportunities. Batting average, for all its flaws, at least gets that right.

[goulik]

I wondered about these things to my self but as you said, minor league stats are more limited. The casual observation told me he was still clutch but then I saw the lower numbers of RBIs and was wondering aloud.

 

All stats have an ability to deceive and some more than others. (See wins for pitchers)

[darin617]

 

I agree. Even if he sits on the bench and does nothing but pinch-hits...it would be an eye-opening experience for him. The Twins have nothing to lose bringing him over in September.

Knowing the Twins they would not want to give a player service time just sitting on the bench. It is a nice way to reward a player with a September call up. The player also likes that little chunk of change for being on the active roster.

 

[goulik]

And the most controversial round up of the 2016 Season:

As everyone knows ABW did not get a Sept Call Up. He finished the season at 243/305/479 for a nice .784 OPS which to me was call up worthy despite the 202 strike outs. (Yeah, he topped 200) He took 44 BBs plus a few more IBB and HBP. His BABIP finished at .348

Walker had 54 xbh with 22 doubles and 27 HRs but I'm equally impressed with the 5 triples. Anyone know his 40 time? That's a total of 229 Total Bases. I am also impressed with the .80 GO/AO rate. In 478 at bats, he hit into only 9 DPs and only had 7 SFs hinting to me that there were not a lot of guys on base in front of him (see above discussion about fewer RBI's). But if he's putting it in the air so much, that would reasonably suggest fewer DPs right? He also had 7 stolen bases in 11 attempts.

 

Outlook for 2017

Walker will start in AAA. If He can lower the K rate, he could easily force his way up. The sooner he shows that the sooner he will be in Minnesota. If he doesn't, he could see himself passed by Palka and potentially packaged in a trade.