Report Card Through 31 Games

[Brandon Warne]

Took a stab at grading the team after 31 games here: http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/minnesota-twins/twins-report-cards/

 

Let me know what you think.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Great job, and fair. I like the "see the forest through the trees" approach you take. I also really like your point about the critical need to add elite players during the window of Sano and Buxton's cheap years/ prime years.

 

Only thing I think you missed was the questionable approaches to developing players like Meyer, Sano, and to a lesser extent, Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton. This a group that should be contributors to the winning team of the not-so-distant future, and their handling has not put them in the best position to succeed, in my opinion.

 

How did you pick 31 games? I like to look at 10-game stretches. So far:

1-9

5-5

2-8

[Reider]

Fairly accurate grades. Not a whole lot to argue with there.

 

However, it bothers me that "fans" keep saying that the Twins were "lucky" to win 83 games last year. That's an insult to the players, coaches, and organization as a whole. The Twins earned those wins by playing as a team last year.

[Mike Sixel]

Molitor is in completely over his head. He's an awful tactician. We can't see his mysterious, awesome, work behind the scenes. Anything over a D or F is too high. That's what you get for hiring a manage who has zero experience.

 

The FO should get about the same grade. They created these bottlenecks. They decided to pass on fixing the bullpen. They decided having 100000 corner OF, and then putting their one potentially great player at a new position. Terrible.

 

As for people that don't think luck plays a part in outcomes, well, we'll just disagree. Of course there is luck in outcomes.

[jimmer]

For those who value ERA stat, we have the worst team ERA in the AL and I believe after today we're 12th or 13th in FIP.

[Thrylos]

Plouffe has 115 OPS+.  You give him C-, that's too low; unless the league average (100) is a D   He should be at least a B.  Exactly same OPS+ as Arcia and you have Arcia as A-.  Gotta be consistent

 

There is no way that Berrios, his 5.96 FIP and 1.744 WHIP is a B and Nolasco and his 3.41 FIP and 1.148 WHIP is a B-.  Berrios is more on the C- neighbourhood right now.  Nolasco's numbers are better than Duffey's (A-).  Got to rank Nolasco at least equal to Duffey.

 

C- is too generous for both the manager and the GM.  Based on your player grades, F is too good for them, especially if the team gets an overall F.  That should be the same grade for both of them, because they should be responsible for it.

 

[twinssouth]

The team has 8 wins, 25 losses. That is an F. No matter how you spin it, everyone (except Duffey and Berrios) gets an F. Worse record in the AL and now more losses than Atlanta.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Only guy I might argue with here would be Escobar.  Seems to me like he got off to a great start and then got hurt and hasn't quite done well since.  I might be willing to give him a mulligan on that one, but yeah, pretty bad overall. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Only guy I might argue with here would be Escobar. Seems to me like he got off to a great start and then got hurt and hasn't quite done well since. I might be willing to give him a mulligan on that one, but yeah, pretty bad overall.

I think you are mistaken here.

Escobar started bad, then got hurt and hasn't played since.

He's on the DL and has yet to play post injury.

[theBOMisthebomb]

How do Jepsen, FO, and Molly not get an F? Dozier deserves a D minus. You were too lenient on an individual level to Fien, Ervin Santana, Hughes, and Sano. Total system failure. This season is a train wreck on top of a car crash.

[Loosey]

Not to nitpick, but how is Abad an A-?    He has given up 1 earned run all year in 14 innings.  That's A+ in my book.  The peripherals aren't perfect, but he basically has been.

[Guest]

Disagree that Nolasco and Santana have high floors, agree that they have limited ceilings. We've seen two years of Nolasco's floor, which is awful, and glimpses of Santana's downside, which could be quite ugly. The best year of Santana's career was 2014, right before the Twins signed him, when he was probably on steroids. Born one day apart in 1982, both of these guys are on the backside of their careers, which means their chances of worse- than-historical performance are greater than the chances they will achieve better-than-career results.

[jimmer]

Report Card: F--

[jimbo92107]

Well written, succinct, insightful. A+.

 

What to do now? Youth movement. Get rid of every player over 30 not named Mauer. Trade Plouffe, Dozier and Nunez for prospects, or a catcher. 

 

Infield - Sano, Esco, Polanco, Mauer. Util - Beresford. 

 

Outfield - Rosario, Buxton, Arcia. DH - Park.

 

Starters - Duffey, Berrios, Gibson, Rogers, Meyer.

 

Pen - Abad, May, Pressley, Chargois, Melotakis. Closer - May.

 

Catcher - Turner, Murphy.

 

Are they ready? Of course not. Will they lose tons of games? Of course. Does that matter? Not anymore.

[mikelink45]

This season has spun out of control and I do not see anyone having an answer.  The Vets we have are worse than the young players, because they have already gone through the growing pains, they can only go downward.  

 

Not sure how Hughes got anything above an F - he is our ACE and signed for three more years.  Ricky is coming back down to Earth after a decent start.  Gibson should come back to the pen and earn his spot again, I hate to see the young players punished and Gibson is no longer young and with potential.

 

Jepsen is an F - he has continued to fail in his role as the closer and that is how he should be judged.

 

Handling of young players (calling them up and putting them on the bench) and coaching them to succeed gets the team another F.

 

Finally, TR, at a minimum is a D.  He is the architect of this tumbling structure.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Plouffe has 115 OPS+.  You give him C-, that's too low; unless the league average (100) is a D   He should be at least a B.  Exactly same OPS+ as Arcia and you have Arcia as A-.  Gotta be consistent

 

There is no way that Berrios, his 5.96 FIP and 1.744 WHIP is a B and Nolasco and his 3.41 FIP and 1.148 WHIP is a B-.  Berrios is more on the C- neighbourhood right now.  Nolasco's numbers are better than Duffey's (A-).  Got to rank Nolasco at least equal to Duffey.

 

C- is too generous for both the manager and the GM.  Based on your player grades, F is too good for them, especially if the team gets an overall F.  That should be the same grade for both of them, because they should be responsible for it.

 

This was written prior to Tuesday's game, when Plouffe homered off Gausman. He was in a miserable slump. 

 

Also, think about expectations for some players against others. And again, this was written BEFORE Berrios started on Tuesday.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Disagree that Nolasco and Santana have high floors, agree that they have limited ceilings. We've seen two years of Nolasco's floor, which is awful, and glimpses of Santana's downside, which could be quite ugly. The best year of Santana's career was 2014, right before the Twins signed him, when he was probably on steroids. Born one day apart in 1982, both of these guys are on the backside of their careers, which means their chances of worse- than-historical performance are greater than the chances they will achieve better-than-career results.

 

That's the issue. They're signed with "high floors" because they're "safe." The contracts are all downside with no upside.

 

At least with Hughes' first deal, he was well under 30 and had some upside left. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Not to nitpick, but how is Abad an A-?    He has given up 1 earned run all year in 14 innings.  That's A+ in my book.  The peripherals aren't perfect, but he basically has been.

 

Based on expectations I probably should have gone that route, but I also baked in a little bit of how skeptical I am he can keep it up. That was probably unfair.

[Brandon Warne]

 

This season has spun out of control and I do not see anyone having an answer.  The Vets we have are worse than the young players, because they have already gone through the growing pains, they can only go downward.  

 

Not sure how Hughes got anything above an F - he is our ACE and signed for three more years.  Ricky is coming back down to Earth after a decent start.  Gibson should come back to the pen and earn his spot again, I hate to see the young players punished and Gibson is no longer young and with potential.

 

Jepsen is an F - he has continued to fail in his role as the closer and that is how he should be judged.

 

Handling of young players (calling them up and putting them on the bench) and coaching them to succeed gets the team another F.

 

Finally, TR, at a minimum is a D.  He is the architect of this tumbling structure.

 

They called up the young players because A. they needed bodies and B. they had nobody else to go to. That's what happens when the guys ahead of them are vested vets (Dozier) or on a hot streak (Nunez).

 

Kepler certainly should have played more when he was up, but that was a byproduct of the time he came up. The Twins still -- for whatever reason, good or bad -- believed they owed it to themselves to see if Eddie Rosario could kick the funk he was in, which I believe he did for a very brief period. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

The team has 8 wins, 25 losses. That is an F. No matter how you spin it, everyone (except Duffey and Berrios) gets an F. Worse record in the AL and now more losses than Atlanta.

 

The team got an F overall. 

[Guest]

Brandon, good article, but you forgot to mention that Park's .850+ OPS isn't as valuable as Hunter's .700 OPS, because of the "leadership" and dance parties. That's really the main switch in the everyday lineup (Park DH & Sano RF vs. Sano DH & Hunter RF) and I keep hearing the meme about how the loss of Torii is the cause for the team's worse record, so that must mean that people would rather have Torii than Park.