Future Rotation-who gets bumped?

[cmoss84]

In a couple of years the Twins are going to find themselves in a wonderful predicament. They are going to have an over-abundance of starting pitching. But the obvious question is, who will be shown the door or be in the pen?

 

Berrios and Meyer will be up this year. Gonsalves and Stewart might be up the end of next year. Jay and Jorge are probably looking at 2018.

 

Hughes - signed through '19

Santana - club option '19

Gibson - Arb. after this year

Duffey - club control for awhile

Milone - FA after this year, probably will be gone.

Nolasco - club option '18

May - Staying in the pen?

 

Will Meyer and Jay start or be in the pen? We don't know yet, but they are both showing promise/potential to start.

 

2017: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Nolasco, Berrios & Meyer

2018: Same list but add Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay and Jorge

 

What moves would you guys make? Who's in and who's out?

I'm hoping we trade Milone and/or Nolasco this year. I'm also guessing that May will turn into the 7th inning guy after our minor league fire-ballers come up (I think they will be better than May). Gonsalves and Stewart will be our 4th and 5th guys and Jay will be our closer. Duffey and Jorge also to the pen, being the long guys.

 

[gunnarthor]

It'll work itself out.  Most teams use 7 or 8 starters every year that will make at least 5 starts.  You always want depth.  That's sort of forgotten in April but it's good to have.

 

[Vanimal46]

I wouldn't count on all of those players making their way to the majors so quickly. 1 (or multiple) pitchers will either falter at AAA, or traded. It's nice to think the Twins could have a full starting staff of home grown talent, but rarely does it play out that way. 

If this season turns out to be a dud, there should be no excuse to not dangle any and all veteran starters to make room for guys like Meyer and Berrios. I'll predict Nolasco and/or Milone is traded. Hopefully both. If this year really goes south, perhaps Ervin is traded to a contender too. 

My pipe dream is that 1 or more of these starters is packaged for an ace type pitcher. Not going to happen anytime soon, but it would be nice. 

[Mr. Brooks]

They will find excuse after excuse to keep Berrios in the minors for at least a couple more years.

They are not going to put themselves in a situation where they have a top of the rotation starter hitting free agency before age 30.

[Mr. Brooks]

Also Meyer has now been marooned to the bullpen.

As we've seen with May, that is a one way trip, no matter what they say.

I'd put the over/under on future starts in a Twins uniform for May and Meyer combined at 1.

[gunnarthor]

 

They will find excuse after excuse to keep Berrios in the minors for at least a couple more years.
They are not going to put themselves in a situation where they have a top of the rotation starter hitting free agency before age 30.

Oh, come on.  They promoted Berrios aggressively in the minors.  He'll be up soon.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Reality is patience.  There's 5 jobs and all are filled.  I suspect that Milone is the easy one when the time comes.  He may get traded for spare parts if for no other reason than to open a spot.  He's year to year, and while he's not great, he's a competent back end of the rotation option that may teams could use. 

 

Nolasco might build some trade value.  If he keeps pitching well and the Twins are out of it, a pitching needy team may enquire.  That would allow for 2 of Meyer, May, Duffey, and Berrios in the rotation with my guess at the moment would be Meyer and Duffey if both continue to pitch well. 

 

I don't see Hughes and Santana going anywhere, not at the moment at least. I wouldn't be against trading either one of them, but the team (rightfully) values depth here, and there's not much there if they find room for Meyer, May, Duffey, and Berrios.  Likewise, I'm not sure either is tradable with three years left on their deals.  I do think that if Gibson does his yearly turn around and posts good numbers over the course of 2016, that he may find himself traded this offseason for a nice prospect or two. 

 

That would leave a 2017 rotation of Hughes, Santana, Meyer, Duffey, May/Berrios.  I could see one of the youngers guys on the Rochester shuttle for 2017 and perhaps even 2018, for no other reason than to leave the team some good depth while they wait for Gonsalves, Stewart, and Jay to establish themselves in the high minors. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd add that none of this takes health into account.  One TJ surgery and all of this changes. 

[Tibs]

 

I'd add that none of this takes health into account.  One TJ surgery and all of this changes. 

It also doesn't take into account any breakouts or sleeper prospects. It's always a possibility someone like Aaron Slegers, Ryan Eades, Andro Cutura, etc. figures something out and is capable of contributing at the major league level. It's fun talking about the future major league starting rotation, but there are so many variables that go into who could be in the rotation two years from now. It's hard to predict what exactly will happen with pitching prospects.

[TRex]

 

It also doesn't take into account any breakouts or sleeper prospects. It's always a possibility someone like Aaron Slegers, Ryan Eades, Andro Cutura, etc. figures something out and is capable of contributing at the major league level. It's fun talking about the future major league starting rotation, but there are so many variables that go into who could be in the rotation two years from now. It's hard to predict what exactly will happen with pitching prospects.

<tongue-in-cheek>

 

There is also a possibility that I will finally figure it out and lose 50 pounds... but it is much, much more likely that I pull a hamstring  on the treadmill!

[Tibs]

 

<tongue-in-cheek>

 

There is also a possibility that I will finally figure it out and lose 50 pounds... but it is much, much more likely that I pull a hamstring  on the treadmill!

There are prospects that break out every year. There are plenty of starting pitching prospects in every organization that have major league potential. For some that potential is realized a lot easier than others.

[Jham]

We should certainly be contending through the next few years.  I hoped this year.  It's hard to bank on young arms.  Likely some plateau at something less than contending rotation level.  Some may be better suited for the pen.  Some may be better suited for scalpels or the Asian leagues.  You can't usually win with all super young guys, so my guess is we that we package 1 or 2 for say an All Star caliber catcher or 1B, for a veteran starter, or even for more young arms.

[Hrbowski]

You can never have too many starters.

[ashbury]

They will find excuse after excuse to keep Berrios in the minors for at least a couple more years.

They are not going to put themselves in a situation where they have a top of the rotation starter hitting free agency before age 30.

Timely call, Nostradamus.

[gunnarthor]

 

There are prospects that break out every year. There are plenty of starting pitching prospects in every organization that have major league potential. For some that potential is realized a lot easier than others.

Radke, Santana, Baker were all pretty good starters and none of them were top 100 prospects.  There are hundreds of very good players who were ignored as prospects.

[Mr. Brooks]

Timely call, Nostradamus.

Yes. I'll gladly eat crow for now.

But I'll be interested to see if he's allowed to stay up when Gibson and Ervin return from the DL.

[FormerMinnasotan]

In a couple of years the Twins are going to find themselves in a wonderful predicament. They are going to have an over-abundance of starting pitching. But the obvious question is, who will be shown the door or be in the pen?

 

Berrios and Meyer will be up this year. Gonsalves and Stewart might be up the end of next year. Jay and Jorge are probably looking at 2018.

 

Hughes - signed through '19

Santana - club option '19

Gibson - Arb. after this year

Duffey - club control for awhile

Milone - FA after this year, probably will be gone.

Nolasco - club option '18

May - Staying in the pen?

 

Will Meyer and Jay start or be in the pen? We don't know yet, but they are both showing promise/potential to start.

 

2017: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Nolasco, Berrios & Meyer

2018: Same list but add Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay and Jorge

 

What moves would you guys make? Who's in and who's out?

I'm hoping we trade Milone and/or Nolasco this year. I'm also guessing that May will turn into the 7th inning guy after our minor league fire-ballers come up (I think they will be better than May). Gonsalves and Stewart will be our 4th and 5th guys and Jay will be our closer. Duffey and Jorge also to the pen, being the long guys.

And by 2019 Lewis Thorpe should be ready (provided he stays injury free). Personally I am higher on Thorpe's potential if healthy more so than any other pitching prospects. A quality 4 pitch starter with strike out potential isn't that easy to find.

[The Wise One]

If Nolasco keeps with  his near 3 era and FIp] somebody in contention with a need for a starter will call. It all depends on health of the Twin's starters as well as contention status

[SweetOne69]

 

In a couple of years the Twins are going to find themselves in a wonderful predicament. They are going to have an over-abundance of starting pitching. But the obvious question is, who will be shown the door or be in the pen?

 

Berrios and Meyer will be up this year. Gonsalves and Stewart might be up the end of next year. Jay and Jorge are probably looking at 2018.

 

Hughes - signed through '19

Santana - club option '19

Gibson - Arb. after this year

Duffey - club control for awhile

Milone - FA after this year, probably will be gone.

Nolasco - club option '18

May - Staying in the pen?

 

Will Meyer and Jay start or be in the pen? We don't know yet, but they are both showing promise/potential to start.

 

2017: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Nolasco, Berrios & Meyer

2018: Same list but add Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay and Jorge

 

What moves would you guys make? Who's in and who's out?

I'm hoping we trade Milone and/or Nolasco this year. I'm also guessing that May will turn into the 7th inning guy after our minor league fire-ballers come up (I think they will be better than May). Gonsalves and Stewart will be our 4th and 5th guys and Jay will be our closer. Duffey and Jorge also to the pen, being the long guys.

I have a couple of corrections for you:

 

First, Santana's option for 2019 is a vested option not a club option.  It becomes guaranteed if he pitches 200+ innings in 2018 and 400+ innings for 2017-18.

 

Second, Nolasco's option becomes a player option if he pitches 200+ innings in 2017.

 

Third, Milone has 2 Arb years remaining.  He doesn't become a FA until 2019.

[clutterheart]

Trade them all and lets go young!

2017 Rotation:  May, Duffey, Meyer, Berrios & Milone