Draft stuff

[biggentleben]

Matt's been considered a top 15-20 for pretty much most of the year, so I don't consider that a ton of helium. You want helium look at Justin Dunn (Boston College) who was in absolutely no first day draft talks to start the year and has shot up the board to mid to late first rounder of late.

Manning is being discussed as high as 4 now. That's incredible helium. Dunn's gone from early second to mid first, sure, but Manning has gone from 15-20 to top 5!

[gunnarthor]

minor league ball put out their mock today and had the Twins taking Forrest Whitley - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/5/20/11717354/2016-mlb-mock-draft-lewis-groome-puk-pint

 

"Minnesota doesn't have any real strong tendencies in the first round. They do lean high school, and arms more than bats. The best available prep arm is Forrest Whitley. Whitley is a giant of a man-child at 6-7, 230. Unlike most big guys, his mechanics are fairly clean and repeatable, leading to a mid-90s fastball. If they decide to go a different direction, Josh Lowe is still there. Or they could go after a different prep arm, like Joey Wentz, the last tier two prep pitcher available."

 

I'm opposed to drafting someone named Forrest.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I was kind of hoping that a prep lefty like Wentz or Garret would be there at 15, but I think Whitley would be a good pick here if he's a available.  He's really tall, boasts mid 90s speed already that can pick up a tick or two as he develops as well.  I think I'd happy with any of those 3.  For the record, they have Collins getting snapped up at 6.  If he's gone, I think they go with at least one prep C in the second round.  With 3 picks (did they have 2 or 3?) there, they can get their safe college arm that they usually grab as well as a prep C and someone else.

[Mike Sixel]

Given the LOOOOONG history of tall pitchers, I'd be very nervous if they took one.

[TheLeviathan]

Take a bat. I think I'm all-in on the Cubs strategy of taking nothing but hitters in the first round.

[gunnarthor]

New mock out by Mayo - http://m.mlb.com/news/article/179142756/aj-puk-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456

 

Has them taking Ian Anderson but also notes what the Twins are (apparently) thinking with the pick - "Minnesota is on all of the top-tier high school right-handers."  So it sounds like we will be taking one of the big arms, just depends on who is there.

[markos]

 

Given the LOOOOONG history of tall pitchers, I'd be very nervous if they took one.

I share your concern, though Manning might be an exception - by all accounts he is a very good athlete and was a potential D1 basketball recruit as a shooting guard. I think the part of the poor history of tall pitchers in baseball is selection bias. If a tall player has very good coordination and athleticism, he is more likely to gravitate to basketball than baseball. So the population of potentially tall baseball pitchers is missing all the tall, hyper-coordinated basketball players (think Durant, Wiggins, Towns, etc) who naturally have the ability to maintain consistent mechanics. Was Alex Meyer ever a top basketball player in high school? So I am less concerned with drafting Manning despite his current (and potential) height.

[nicksaviking]

All of these prep arms are starting to blur. I'm starting to think any of these analysts that claim they have a read on which are "safe", "project-able" or "least flatulent" are full of crap.

 

Groome and Pint are still at the top but have fallen back to the pack. With Manning, Whitley, Wentz Garrett and Anderson it looks to me like it's all just a crapshoot, even more so this year than other years. You want a prep arm, just pick one and cross your fingers.

 

I usually prefer the prep guys, but I think I like Hudson better than all of these guys, if he happened to be there.

[Bob Sacamento]

Well you all can thank me later because I'm sure I'll hear about from someone in the front office next week but the Twins worked out several HS draft prospects today at the Complex.  Information I'm sure you'll find nowhere else but here 

 

JC Flowers (who just watched) (Kentucky commit), Luis Curbelo (Miami commit), Nick Derr (FSU commit), Fransisco Thomas (SDSU), Henry Matais, Josh Winckowski (Florida SW St), and Bryan Torres.

 

Torres and Matais worked out behind the plate. Video of BP and infield drills coming later.

 

Fransisco Thomas, Henry Matais, Luis Curbelo

 

Nick Derr, Luis Curbelo

 

JC Flowers

 

Josh Winckowski

 

Bryan Torres

[Monkeypaws]

 

Take a bat. I think I'm all-in on the Cubs strategy of taking nothing but hitters in the first round.

Me too.

 

I'm sick of the Twins trotting out a lineup of feast or famine power hitters, with high K rates. Gimme a a .300 hitter with gap power over that anyday: or at least have a few spinkled throughout the lineup. K K K solo HR K K  is no way to win.

 

 

BTW, the Twins have a legacy of good average hitter. They need to get back to that, back to difficult outs in the lineup.

[gunnarthor]

 

Well you all can thank me later because I'm sure I'll hear about from someone in the front office next week but the Twins worked out several HS draft prospects today at the Complex.  Information I'm sure you'll find nowhere else but here 

 

Very nice.  Of all those names, only Curbelo - #98 makes mlb.com's list (which doesn't mean they won't be good players or the Twins shouldn't be looking at them).  Curbelo is likely a future third baseman. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Very nice.  Of all those names, only Curbelo - #98 makes mlb.com's list (which doesn't mean they won't be good players or the Twins shouldn't be looking at them).  Curbelo is likely a future third baseman. 

I saw Curbelo play in the WWBA in October, talked to him and his parents then and again today, they remembered me from then thought I was somehow affiliated with the Twins but then saw my Cub hat. Anyway, he's going to bulk up the older he gets you can see it in his frame. He wants to sign but has a number in mind that teams must meet (like most kids) elsewise he's going to the U of Miami for the next couple of years.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I think they should go heavy on HS guys.  Only issue there this that they need a few cheap college signs so they can go over slot and get the HS guys. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Personally, I think they should go heavy on HS guys.  Only issue there this that they need a few cheap college signs so they can go over slot and get the HS guys. 

That's what my Cubbies did last year, giving 3rd Rd Bryan Hudson (1.1M, slot was .730M) and4th Rd DJ Wilson (1.3M, slot was .503M) while their 6th thru 10th rounders were giving $50K (slot was 282K), $5K (211K), $30K (174K), $5K (162K), and $2K (slot was 152K). 

 

While the Twins in 2015 drafted pretty much straight up except for giving 4th Rd Trey Cabbage an extra 240K so the Twins took Chris Paul in the 6th and gave him 50K while slot was 290K.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It should be interesting.  We have picks 56, 73 and 74 in the second round, so grabbing a decent college senior that we can get well under slot (or maybe 2) would allow to grab some higher ceiling prep picks there in the second through fourth rounds.  I think that's smart, especially given the way this draft class looks.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

It should be interesting.  We have picks 56, 73 and 74 in the second round, so grabbing a decent college senior that we can get well under slot (or maybe 2) would allow to grab some higher ceiling prep picks there in the second through fourth rounds.  I think that's smart, especially given the way this draft class looks.

Well the Twins have almost 8M to spend on the draft and with taking two 50K player at 6th and 8th would save you 350K alone. Or you could punt third or fourth or take one bargain 2nd Rder thus using saving on taking a 1st Rounder talent who falls because of $$ (ala Astros and Daz Cameron last year).  Alot of ways the Twins can play it but for some reason you just get the feeling they won't do anything too outlandish. 

 

1st/15. Twins: $2,817,100

2nd/56. Twins: $1,141,600

2nd/73. Twins: $878,500
2nd/74. Twins: $865,200

3rd/93. Twins: $645,600

4th/123. Twins: $477,900

5th/153. Twins: $357,800

6th/183. Twins: $267,800

7th/213. Twins: $200,900

8th/243. Twins: $178,200

9th/273. Twins: $166,300

10th/303. Twins: $156,600

[Hrbowski]

 

Given the LOOOOONG history of tall pitchers, I'd be very nervous if they took one.

Whitley is a very similar pitcher to Adam Wainwright, but Manning is more like Porcello.

[diehardtwinsfan]

From what I've read, there's not much of a gap between picks 10 and 40. I could potentially see someone cutting a deal in the first round and taking somewhere between 1.5 and 2M as well.  I wouldn't mind that with one of those HS picks.  They could potentially pit Wentz, Garrett, and Whitley against each other to see who will take that pick.  Then go get Rortvedt in the 2nd and/or maybe Cooper Johnson and another HS pitcher to close out the 2nd.  It's a bit of drafting for need, but all of those picks are reasonable from where there at, so it's not like there's any big reaching going on there.  That makes for four prep guys in the first two rounds.  Not their typical pattern, but given that most of their depth is in the high minors, it might hurt to stock up on higher ceiling guys who will take a bit longer to mature.

 

If I a guy like Collins fell to them at 15, then I'd probably have a low sign planned somewhere so I could go over slot and get him.  I could see that if something unexpected happens and someone projected to go in the top 10 slides out of it. 

 

 

[biggentleben]

http://tomahawktake.com/2016/05/23/atlanta-braves-mock-draft-monday-version-3-0/

 

My third version of a mock. I'll post the one where I go pick by pick for CTTP later in the week, but I thought the front page on this one was of particular note for any and all draft hounds or casual draft aficionados as the draft draws near.

[Mike Sixel]

Braves just bought a daft pick, money for their pool. The twins signed a 33 year old. Sigh.

[biggentleben]

Braves just bought a daft pick, money for their pool. The twins signed a 33 year old. Sigh.

A comp B pick. And it was not cheap. I have to think one of the comp A picks would cost a top 20 team prospect and eating significant dead money. This isn't getting Touki for eating Arroyo's salary this season. Barker and Belicek aren't elite guys, but they're both guys I saw with clear major league futures, especially Belicek as a lefty in the pen that can attack both handedness.

[gunnarthor]

 

A comp B pick. And it was not cheap. I have to think one of the comp A picks would cost a top 20 team prospect and eating significant dead money. This isn't getting Touki for eating Arroyo's salary this season. Barker and Belicek aren't elite guys, but they're both guys I saw with clear major league futures, especially Belicek as a lefty in the pen that can attack both handedness.

I'm trying to figure out what would be a comparable deal talent wise, for the Twins.  Maybe Felix Jorge and Yorman Landa?  Not sure, I don't have a great handle on the guys Atlanta moved.  

[markos]

 

I'm trying to figure out what would be a comparable deal talent wise, for the Twins.  Maybe Felix Jorge and Yorman Landa?  Not sure, I don't have a great handle on the guys Atlanta moved.  

Keith Law mentioned on twitter last night that both guys are pretty mediocre as far as prospects go: on the old side with iffy fastballs. I would think that Jorge and Landa are better than those two.

 

Of course, Ben probably has a decent handle on Atlanta prospects. Hopefully he can come up with some comps for us. 

[nicksaviking]

BA says that neither guy were even top a top 30 prospects in the Braves system. Both were 16 round draft picks, so it's not like they have a big pedigree either. It looks like we're talking along the lines of Cody Stashak and Mat Batts to me.

[Mike Sixel]

So, ya, one team is doing everything it can to add talent.......because that is their strategy. The other is not. 

 

Two guys not even in teh top 30........the Twins are flush with RP types....flush.

[gunnarthor]

 

So, ya, one team is doing everything it can to add talent.......because that is their strategy. The other is not. 

 

Two guys not even in teh top 30........the Twins are flush with RP types....flush.

Wow.  I guess this would be the part where we say it must be nice to live in such a black and white world?  I mean, come on.  The Twins have graduated plenty of players from their minor league system and they are still considered a top farm system.  You think that's because they aren't trying to add talent?  Jeepers.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Sickels has write-ups on Whitley and Wentz.  Figured since we are connected to both, it might not be a bad idea to read them.

[biggentleben]

 

Keith Law mentioned on twitter last night that both guys are pretty mediocre as far as prospects go: on the old side with iffy fastballs. I would think that Jorge and Landa are better than those two.

 

Of course, Ben probably has a decent handle on Atlanta prospects. Hopefully he can come up with some comps for us. 

 

Yeah, neither has a high-end ceiling.

 

Barker has a very good four-pitch mix that could probably work as a #4-5 guy that would eat innings at a 4 ERA, pitching off his breaking stuff more than his fastball.

 

Belicek is a bit different. The Braves moved him to the pen this year, and he's been very solid as a lefty out of the pen with a curve that is devastating on both righties and lefties. He's been brought up to AA already for spot work, but I could see him being an effective lefty reliever as soon as the end of this season at the big league level.

 

I had Barker at 41 and Belicek at 73 in my Braves top 100 prospects coming into the season, but that was before the move of Belicek to the pen and his success in that role. I'd say they're probably around #40ish prospects each in the system.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wow.  I guess this would be the part where we say it must be nice to live in such a black and white world?  I mean, come on.  The Twins have graduated plenty of players from their minor league system and they are still considered a top farm system.  You think that's because they aren't trying to add talent?  Jeepers.  

 

This is my opinion, I could be wrong:

 

the Braves have dealt every veteran but 1, for picks/players. The Twins kept Perkins and others.

The braves have been working hard to acquire more picks, the Twins have not.

The braves are rumored to be spending big in the international world, the Twins are literally tied to zero of the top 30 players, and, contrary to belief, tied matters. It is all pretty much done at this point.

 

One team is truly rebuilding, the other is not.

 

I could be wrong, maybe they tried really hard to acquire more picks and tried to trade Plouffe and Perkins and others, and just couldn't. But, it does not appear to me that the Twins are all in on aquiring more youth.

 

As for the minor league system......it's going to look pretty barren next year for hitters other than Gordon. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Wow.  I guess this would be the part where we say it must be nice to live in such a black and white world?  I mean, come on.  The Twins have graduated plenty of players from their minor league system and they are still considered a top farm system.  You think that's because they aren't trying to add talent?  Jeepers.  

 

Not commenting on the Twins trying to add talent, but I do wonder where the farm system will rank starting next year. Half of the top 10 is going to graduate or fall off that list and the projected replacements aren't nearly as strong. The shine will wear off the overall system's reputation if these highly-touted prospects continue to struggle so mightily in the majors all season. The next crop is pretty much Gordon and the pile of pitchers in A-ball who are promising but still a big unknown. We don't have a strong draft pick or international FA coming into the system this year either.

 

After looking at it, beyond the AAA/MLB youth we're looking at a dearth of hitting prospects other than Nick Gordon over the next 4-5 years. Failure for this current wave isn't really an option.