Article: Beating Vegas: The Minnesota Twins

[John Bonnes]

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! A hot streak in May had the team in first place in June and dreaming of a postseason appearance at the All-Star Break. They fell short of that goal with 83 wins, but exceeded expectations while injecting their roster with long-awaited prospects. They’ll try to recreate that success replacing Torii Hunter with Byung-Ho Park, a South Korean slugger acquired this offseason.Vegas’ Line: 78.5 wins

 

What The Line Is Saying

“That was cute last year, but you were luckier than you think.”

 

They’ll Beat Vegas If…

Their prospects continue to take steps forward. That’s not only important for the big names breaking with the club: Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. It’s also true for the guys at AAA who will likely provide much needed reinforcements mid-season: JO Berrios, Tyler Duffey, Max Kepler and Nick Burdi.

 

 If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. 

 

They’ll Lose To Vegas If…

Every pitcher in this rotation is a coin flip; if enough come up tails, the year could go the wrong way in a hurry. Is Phil Huges v.2015 or v.2014? Is Ervin Santana the guy we saw in August (7.11 ERA) or the guy we saw in September (1.88 ERA)? Can Kyle Gibson control his inconsistent outings, or will he succumb to them? And then we get to Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco….. oy.

 

I’ll Bet The….

OVER

It’s certainly possible this team has a swoon, but they should be loaded up for a solid 5-6 years of competitive baseball, and it should start this year. The AL Central often turns into a war of attrition and when ammo starts running low, I like the Twins midseason reinforcements to be the difference.

 

 Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. 

 

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[biggentleben]

Over. 3rd in the division. Probably not much more than 85 wins, but .500.

 

Interested to hear the NL discussion around here

[frightwig]

Under

 

Last year the Twins had a 73-89 BaseRuns record, and the lineup ranked 14th-AL in WAR and wRC+.

 

Terry Ryan didn't do much to upgrade the lineup, some of the most promising young talent is still in AAA (and I think Rosario will be spending more time there this season), and the Sano move to RF just seems bizarre. It wouldn't surprise me if Dozier and Plouffe decline a bit, too.

 

Even if Buxton, Sano, and Kepler step up, I don't think it will completely overcome cluster luck regression, and the rotation could look ugly for stretches of the season, too. I'm looking for a 77-85 record this year.

[spinowner]

 

Over. 3rd in the division. Probably not much more than 85 wins, but .500.

 

Interested to hear the NL discussion around here

Whatever the Braves' line is, I'll take the under. How about you?

[spinowner]

I'm going over with the expectation of 80-85 wins. If the youth movement progresses faster than expected they could hit 90. I don't see the pitching staff getting us any further than that.

[alanwil2]

Over.  88 wins and 2nd place in the Central.

[wavedog]

I had them at 78-84 for this year so I will go with under by a hair.  Always hopeful that this is wrong and they will be World Series winners! 

[bird]

83 wins, and still 4th place.

 

I see the difference between the Twins and the other teams in the division kind of like this: if two or three things go wrong for Detroit, Chicago, and KC, and Cleveland on offense, the fortunes of those teams can change dramatically because of the lack of depth. But for the Twins, if a larger number of things go right for them, they might surprise in a big way. Not everything that could go right will go right, but there are a ton of possibilities for upside stories, and I still believe people are under-estimating the impact Buxton will have. The two reasons I'm not more optimistic are 1) the starting rotation, and 2) the lack of experience of the young ones

[Mike Sixel]

 

83 wins, and still 4th place.

 

I see the difference between the Twins and the other teams in the division kind of like this: if two or three things go wrong for Detroit, Chicago, and KC, and Cleveland on offense, the fortunes of those teams can change dramatically because of the lack of depth. But for the Twins, if a larger number of things go right for them, they might surprise in a big way. Not everything that could go right will go right, but there are a ton of possibilities for upside stories, and I still believe people are under-estimating the impact Buxton will have. The two reasons I'm not more optimistic are 1) the starting rotation, and 2) the lack of experience of the young ones

 

I agree with this, but 81 wins for me.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

"The AL Central often turns into a war of attrition and when ammo starts running low, I like the Twins midseason reinforcements to be the difference."

 

Good take. I'll drink that elixir from here to 2018.

[biggentleben]

 

Whatever the Braves' line is, I'll take the under. How about you?

 

Depends on when they sell. When they sell off the vets like Markakis, Johnson, Grilli, Aybar, and etc., i could honestly see the young players coming up, and with their late schedule (a lot of games against the Phillies, Marlins, Reds, Padres, and Rockies, who will all be fighting for the top pick most likely), I could see a late push to really spoil those betting the under by getting 70-73 wins. I've seen in the range of 67-69 wins projected.

[Vanimal46]

Under. They're going to stick with the proven veterans in the pitching rotation too long and it will cost wins. Should be a fun year to hopefully rotate out the old with the shiny new prospects.

[HitInAPinch]

81 - 81.  E. Santana takes the challenge as the Ace and produces.  Gibson stays steady; a plus .500 starter.  Hughes and Nolasco fall to injuries, etc.  Twins suffer during the acclimation of Duffy and Berrios to the MLB.  Tommy Milone stays steady.

 

Twins hitting and defense are a tick above average, which keeps the team average.  With hope for a better 2017 with youth being integrated to MLB.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Over and I don't have to think hard about it. I think it's likely the Twins miss the postseason but my over/under for them is 83-ish games. They have a lot of depth around the diamond and most of it should perform above replacement level should things go badly for the starters.

 

78.5 isn't a tough call to make.

[chaderic20]

Honestly I could see the Twins anywhere from 75 to 85 wins, but I'm an optimist, so I'll take the OVER at 83 wins.  That'll be good for 2nd or 3rd in the Central, whose winner could have as low as 85 wins.

[Willihammer]

Over.

[Dantes929]

According to the pythagorean we won two more games than we should have last year so starting in the hole two games but I am always optimistic and I see  a lot of reasons for it compared to last year.    Mauer better, Buxton  instead of HIcks.  Santana for a whole year.  Escobar over 2015 D. Santana.    Park and Sano instead of Hunter/Arcia/Vargas/Sano.     Pen might be shallow but May and Jepsen over who we had for the first half of year.    If Duffey was in the rotation from the start I would feel a lot better about predicting 160-2.   Instead I will go with 87 wins.

[pbrezeasap]

Over

[Pardon My Dinger]

78 wins would be pretty disappointing, I think. Over. 

[Wookiee of the Year]

If the line were 82.5, I'd be taking the under, but such as it is, Over.

[Blake]

78-84--Nolasco is released as is Abad. Plouffe is traded for a big piece of the 2017 World Series team. 

 

Milone is traded to this years World Series team for a top prospect.

 

Kepler debuts and remains. Duffy and JO Berrios come up to stay.

[TheLeviathan]

Over, but it'll be close.  I think they are probably an 80 win team this year as we fully transition.

[David Zeller]

I'll take the over and hope for meaningful games in late September

[gunnarthor]

Over.  I thought last years team was a .500ish team coming out of ST and this team is better so we should be able to top 79 wins.