Options, options, and more options

[gocgo]

OK, you are the manager of the Minnesota Twins.  It's the bottom of the 8th and the score is tied.  Here is your current lineup:

 

Dozier - 2B

Mauer - 1B

Sano - RF

Plouffe - 3B

Park - DH

Rosario - LF

Esco - SS

Murphy - C

Buxton - CF

 

Mauer leads off the bottom of the eighth with a single to left.

 

Your bench consists of:

 

Suzuki

Nunez

Santana

Arcia

 

Do you -

A - Stand pat with Mauer on 1st base.

B - Bring in Santana to run for Mauer knowing that you can move him to right for defense and bring Park in to play 1st base (but risk losing your DH if it goes to extra innings).  Obviously, you can bat Arcia and Nunez for the pitcher (DH in Mauers spot) if you go to extra innings.

C - Bring in Santana to run for Mauer knowing that you can move him to right for defense and bring Sano in to play 3rd and move Plouffe to 1st and keep your DH right where he is.

D - Wait to see if Mauer makes it into scoring position before deciding what to do.

E - None of the above (please detail).

 

I'll go B, but I'm a gambling man.

 

P.S.  Your pitchers all run like Mauer.

 

[DaveW]

Pop quiz, hotshot. There's a bomb on a bus. Once the bus goes 50 miles an hour, the bomb is armed. If it drops below 50, it blows up. What do you do? What do you do?

[alarp33]

A.  

 

Mauer will be just fine jogging around the bases after Sano deposits one into the Left field bleachers. 

[Mike Sixel]

A, not a fan of pinch running for guys on first base. I guess that makes it D, as I would run for him if he's on 2nd or 3rd with less than 2 outs.

[gocgo]

One more thing - the opposing catcher is throwing out 25 percent of runners.

[gocgo]

 

A.  

 

Mauer will be just fine jogging around the bases after Sano deposits one into the Left field bleachers. 

I love that option...but there's the gamble.  Will Sano, Plouffe, or Park put one out?

[REPETE]

A.  tired of watching extra inning games with bench players instead of regulars.

[alarp33]

 

I love that option...but there's the gamble.  Will Sano, Plouffe, or Park put one out?

 

Mauer is a good baserunner, and he's on 1B w/ 0 outs and the heart of the order coming up... It doesn't matter if one of them puts one out, they can score him plenty of ways.  

 

As to your opposing catcher stat, no chance are you attempting a steal in that situation with Sano at the plate.  

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I  too would go with A. Mauer's a good runner. But if for some reason he was injured (say he pulled a muscle on the way to first), I would go with E1 or E2:

 

E1: Bring in Santana to run for him, and have Santana play 3rd base, and move Plouffe to 1st. Or,

 

E2: Bring in Nunez to run for Mauer, and have Nunez play 3rd, and move Plouffe to 1st.

 

B is not an option. Molitor won't want to lose his DH.

 

C is not an option. You're moving more players around than needed. 

 

A, D, E1 and E2 are all options.

[Willihammer]

Is Nunez even faster than Mauer?

[Willihammer]

I honestly have no idea how fast the guy is.

Does anyone at ST have stopwatch readings on our players?

[Linus]

Is Nunez even faster than Mauer?

Um.....yes, that's safe to say.

[alarp33]

 

Is Nunez even faster than Mauer?

 

Nunez may be the fastest non-Buxton player on the roster

[gocgo]

 

Mauer is a good baserunner, and he's on 1B w/ 0 outs and the heart of the order coming up... It doesn't matter if one of them puts one out, they can score him plenty of ways.  

 

As to your opposing catcher stat, no chance are you attempting a steal in that situation with Sano at the plate.  

I'm a gambling man.

[Platoon]

Pop quiz, hotshot. There's a bomb on a bus. Once the bus goes 50 miles an hour, the bomb is armed. If it drops below 50, it blows up. What do you do? What do you do?

Take the light rail instead of the bus?

[gocgo]

 

I  too would go with A. Mauer's a good runner. But if for some reason he was injured (say he pulled a muscle on the way to first), I would go with E1 or E2:

 

E1: Bring in Santana to run for him, and have Santana play 3rd base, and move Plouffe to 1st. Or,

 

E2: Bring in Nunez to run for Mauer, and have Nunez play 3rd, and move Plouffe to 1st.

 

B is not an option. Molitor won't want to lose his DH.

 

C is not an option. You're moving more players around than needed. 

 

A, D, E1 and E2 are all options.

Hadn't thought of the E2 option...that's why you get paid the big bucks Molly!

[Platoon]

Nunez may be the fastest non-Buxton player on the roster

But is he faster than Buxtons cap? To answer the initial question, A! The game is tied, you get to bat again! Dont over manage!

[alarp33]

 

I'm a gambling man.

 

What are you trying to accomplish by gambling, taking the bat out of the hands of your best hitter in a best case scenario (steal is successful)?

[gocgo]

Option E3 - shock the world, have Sano lay down a bunt and get fired that night.

[gocgo]

 

What are you trying to accomplish by gambling, taking the bat out of the hands of your best hitter in a best case scenario (steal is successful)?

Not necessarily stealing, but the threat of the steal can mess with a pitchers head.  Also, if Sano or one of the others puts one off the wall or hits a gapper, Santana can motor whereas Mauer isn't much of a 1st to home threat.

[gocgo]

 

But is he faster than Buxtons cap? To answer the initial question, A! The game is tied, you get to bat again! Dont over manage!

Really this boils down to my lack of trust in the depth of the bullpen.  That's sad to say, but true.  Also, it might depend on how much the bullpen has been used in the previous games.  Lot's of factors come into play....does my wife have dinner plans?  If mama ain't happy...

[Thrylos]

 

Is Nunez even faster than Mauer?

 

Is CC Sabathia faster than Mauer?  

[Willihammer]

LOL I guess my eyes aren't too sharp.

[Seth Stohs]

A. 

[Loosey]

 

Pop quiz, hotshot. There's a bomb on a bus. Once the bus goes 50 miles an hour, the bomb is armed. If it drops below 50, it blows up. What do you do? What do you do?

First thing I do is tell the criminals on the bus I don't care about their crimes, I'm only there to save lives.  Then if there is a secret camera on the bus I get someone to play it in a loop so I can unload passengers from the moving bus.

[amjgt]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-statcast-baserunning-data-ichiro-suzuki/

 

Second chart from the bottom

 

Joe Mauer is actually speedy. It just doesn't show up in the form of SB because he take ridiculously bad primary leads from 1B. 

[Willihammer]

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-statcast-baserunning-data-ichiro-suzuki/

 

Second chart from the bottom

 

Joe Mauer is actually speedy. It just doesn't show up in the form of SB because he take ridiculously bad primary leads from 1B. 

Ha! 17.36 mph for Joe. Rosario clocks in at 18.61

 

Joe looks to be somewhere around 65th percentile in 1st to 2nd speed according to this graph (Rosario somewhere around 90th).

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Option E3 - shock the world, have Sano lay down a bunt and get fired that night.

Molly wouldn't get fired that night, Well, he might. It depends on how good a bunt Sano lays down.

 

[sane16]

 

Pop quiz, hotshot. There's a bomb on a bus. Once the bus goes 50 miles an hour, the bomb is armed. If it drops below 50, it blows up. What do you do? What do you do?

If you are the driver, drive slower than 50mph so the bomb is never armed.

If you are a passenger, get off at the next stop and transfer to another bus.

If you are a dispatcher, re-route the bus to ISIS headquarters.

[jorgenswest]

2015 Base running data

 

First to third

Mauer 6/20

Nunez 4/9

Santana 5/11

 

Second to home

Mauer 5/13

Nunez 5/6

Santana 5/9

 

First to home

Mauer 3/7

Nunez 1/2

Santana 3/4

 

Bases taken/Outs

Mauer 24/4

Nunez 10/3

Santana 12/0

 

Net gain

Mauer -2

Nunez +4

Santana +13

 

Rosario had the Twins best base running numbers but Santana was very good. I think Mauer's performance at the plate has to be weighed. If he hits like 2015, I would be more inclined to use Santana and then play Sano or Plouffe at 1B.