Berrios getting hosed

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would also add that money probably have very little bearing on the decision not to bring him up. And likely will have very little bearing this year.

 

I agree it is more about numbers and depth (this year).

Agreed.

 

The Berrios decision alone didn't bother me so much, but the combination of decisions around Rogers, Berrios, and even Meyer late last season was very disappointing.  There wasn't really any tangible benefit to not promoting one or two of those guys, it was just the Twins conservatism and inflexibility (and overrating lesser pitchers) rearing its ugly head.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed.

 

The Berrios decision alone didn't bother me so much, but the combination of decisions around Rogers, Berrios, and even Meyer late last season was very disappointing.  There wasn't really any tangible benefit to not promoting one or two of those guys, it was just the Twins conservatism and inflexibility (and overrating lesser pitchers) rearing its ugly head.

The late season moves (or lack thereof) irked me but what really chapped me was the lack of movement earlier in the season, particularly revolving around Oliveros. Instead of finding a spot for him in a MLB bullpen walking a tightrope, they moved him to the Rochester rotation. Argh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The late season moves (or lack thereof) irked me but what really chapped me was the lack of movement earlier in the season, particularly revolving around Oliveros. Instead of finding a spot for him in a MLB bullpen walking a tightrope, they moved him to the Rochester rotation. Argh.

Certainly there were issues early in the season too, although I wouldn't mention Oliveros specifically as he is/was ultimately pretty fungible.

 

But by August, it was pretty clear they still had needs and they had a lot of guys they didn't trust to meet those needs, and Rogers, Berrios, and Meyer were performing well in AAA, and only Berrios presented any kind of 40-man roster issue among those 3.  Just no excuse, especially when your offseason bullpen plan seems to be built around the hope/expectation that Rogers and Meyer in particular can ascend very quickly in 2016.

[drjim]

 

Agreed.

 

The Berrios decision alone didn't bother me so much, but the combination of decisions around Rogers, Berrios, and even Meyer late last season was very disappointing.  There wasn't really any tangible benefit to not promoting one or two of those guys, it was just the Twins conservatism and inflexibility (and overrating lesser pitchers) rearing its ugly head.

 

Rogers and Meyer didn't bother me all that much. For better or worse they weren't going pitch a meaningful inning in September. Rogers wasn't going to pitch ahead of Cotts. The time for Rogers, if he was going to contribute down the stretch, was late July/early August.

 

I still have some hope that Meyer will be salvageable as a bullpen asset, but it wasn't happening last year. And Rogers is a fine bullpen prospect and I hope he gets a legit chance to break camp in the bigs this spring, but he wasn't going to be a difference maker from day one.

 

Berrios had the chance to be a difference maker down the stretch out of the pen (albeit with the risk that has been discussed). Beyond that, I was fine either way.

[howieramone2]

 

Agreed.

 

The Berrios decision alone didn't bother me so much, but the combination of decisions around Rogers, Berrios, and even Meyer late last season was very disappointing.  There wasn't really any tangible benefit to not promoting one or two of those guys, it was just the Twins conservatism and inflexibility (and overrating lesser pitchers) rearing its ugly head.

They sure overrated Duffey didn't they. Conservative yes, inflexible no. You don't completely rebuild a mid-market team in less than 4 years by being inflexible.

[howieramone2]

 

 

Certainly there were issues early in the season too, although I wouldn't mention Oliveros specifically as he is/was ultimately pretty fungible.

 

But by August, it was pretty clear they still had needs and they had a lot of guys they didn't trust to meet those needs, and Rogers, Berrios, and Meyer were performing well in AAA, and only Berrios presented any kind of 40-man roster issue among those 3.  Jusexcuset no , especially when your offseason bullpen plan seems to be built around the hope/expectation that Rogers and Meyer in particular can ascend very quickly in 2016.

On August 5th and again on August 15th our favorite team picked Duffey over Berrios. This proved to be a good move. Meyer sucked until his last 22 innings in September and wasn't even one of the better pitchers on the team. His future is murky at best. Rogers and Meyer are not the centerpieces of our offseason bullpen plan, merely potential options.

[nicksaviking]

 

On August 5th and again on August 15th our favorite team picked Duffey over Berrios. This proved to be a good move. Meyer sucked until his last 22 innings in September and wasn't even one of the better pitchers on the team. His future is murky at best. Rogers and Meyer are not the centerpieces of our offseason bullpen plan, merely potential options.

 

The centerpieces for the off season bullpen plan were Casey Fein and Fernando Abad?

 

I think most people are focusing on dates earlier than August 5th. The bullpen clearly needed help back in June.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rogers and Meyer didn't bother me all that much. For better or worse they weren't going pitch a meaningful inning in September. Rogers wasn't going to pitch ahead of Cotts. The time for Rogers, if he was going to contribute down the stretch, was late July/early August.

Note I didn't limit it to September.  Somehow AJ Achter managed to blow a lead in September, and O'Rourke and Graham in late August.  There was no reason Rogers couldn't have been up in August, maybe to get his feet wet in the spot start that went to May?  Even if he didn't pitch enough or in meaningful enough situations to make a difference in our 2015 fortunes, I would think any MLB experience and evaluation opportunities would have been valuable in constructing our 2016 pen.  Same for Meyer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They sure overrated Duffey didn't they. Conservative yes, inflexible no. You don't completely rebuild a mid-market team in less than 4 years by being inflexible.

Where was there any flexibility with the 2015 pen?  They unnecessarily signed Stauffer to fill Swarzak, gave a job to Boyer who they still didn't want to trust or retain even after a 2.49 ERA, guaranteed a full season job to Duensing who they likewise had no interest in trusting or retaining, gave the first staff opening to Aaron Thompson who again they had no great interest in trusting or retaining.  They moved May to the pen... then promptly removed him for a week at a critical juncture for a spot start rather than give an obvious promotion/audition to Rogers or Berrios.  They acquired Jepsen to help bolster a weak pen... at precisely the time Perkins was hurting the pen then disappearing.  They let destined-to-be-designated Aaron Thompson sit at home on the 40-man roster for September rather than take an early look at one of the obvious offseason 40-man additions.  They let another eventual waiver casualty in Achter blow a lead in September.  They promoted a potential lefty-killer in O'Rourke, only to let him lose a critical game facing RHB.

 

They made a fine move in starting Duffey, but that doesn't mean they didn't also bungle the pen.

[howieramone2]

 

The centerpieces for the off season bullpen plan were Casey Fein and Fernando Abad?

 

I think most people are focusing on dates earlier than August 5th. The bullpen clearly needed help back in June.

Actually, May, Jepsen and Perkins are the centerpieces. I was responding to another poster, I have no idea what dates most people were focusing on.

[drjim]

 

Note I didn't limit it to September.  Somehow AJ Achter managed to blow a lead in September, and O'Rourke and Graham in late August.  There was no reason Rogers couldn't have been up in August, maybe to get his feet wet in the spot start that went to May?  Even if he didn't pitch enough or in meaningful enough situations to make a difference in our 2015 fortunes, I would think any MLB experience and evaluation opportunities would have been valuable in constructing our 2016 pen.  Same for Meyer.

 

Is it certain Rogers, even if called up, would get those opportunities? And if he blew them himself, would people be thinking that was OK? There was lots of outcry to get Achter up.

 

I don't really agree that pitching a few low leverage innings in September does much for 2016. I will say that looking back at Meyer's numbers down the stretch in Rochester, he did much better than I remembered. I wonder if the decision was based as much on having him end on a high note and reset for 2016 rather than potentially exposing him to another struggle in an important spot in September and being back at square one in March.

[gopherman23]

Berrios pitched 75 innings total in AAA and had much higher numbers That would lead me to believe that the league was figuring him out. So if I ignore 1/3 of someone's season, I can make them look better or worse depending on my agenda.

 

Cherrypicked stats are a bit of a pet peeve

Earned Runs by AAA start for Berrios:

 

1. 4 5.2ip

2. 5 5ip

3. 2 7ip

4. 0 7ip

5. 1 6ip

6. 3 7ip

7. 0 7ip

8. 4 6ip

9. 1 7ip

10. 0 7ip

11. 1 6ip

12. 1 5ip

 

So you surmise that the league was figuring out Berrios, even though he only gave up 3 earned runs over his last 25 innings?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is it certain Rogers, even if called up, would get those opportunities? And if he blew them himself, would people be thinking that was OK? There was lots of outcry to get Achter up.

If Rogers is viewed as a potential member of your opening day 2016 bullpen, and he's going on your 40-man roster after the season anyway, then why shouldn't he get some opportunity if only for evaluation at the end of 2015?  Especially when he has to begin adapting to a relief role, and we were without a true long reliever at the time anyway.

 

And there wasn't much outcry for Achter by August and September, after he had already been passed over for so long the writing was on the wall for him.  If he's one of the first on your offseason chopping block, who cares if he gets buried for a better pitcher. A large part of this is identifying what pieces you need, trust, and want to keep, and prioritizing accordingly, and the Twins don't seem to be doing that much in the pen.

 

I don't really agree that pitching a few low leverage innings in September does much for 2016.

 

First of all, again I am not limiting it to September, there was plenty of opportunity and need to improve the pen before then.  A September call-up may not be a big deal, but it was the Twins decisions in August, July, June, etc. that reduced the potential opportunity here to a September call-up.  Just like it was the Twins decision not to pursue Sipp, Kelley, Lowe, Benoit, K Rod, Cahill, etc. that reduced the TD debate du jour to "Bastardo or bust".

 

Really, I am just trying to get a handle on a strategy and what this team thinks is important.  In isolation, you can always make a case for a particular guy staying down in the minors, or not signing a particular FA, but the Twins have done these things so much lately in the pen, even while competing and hopefully putting together another contender, it amounts to is a lot of inaction and a lot of complacency.

[drjim]

 

If Rogers is viewed as a potential member of your opening day 2016 bullpen, and he's going on your 40-man roster after the season anyway, then why shouldn't he get some opportunity if only for evaluation at the end of 2015?  Especially when he has to begin adapting to a relief role, and we were without a true long reliever at the time anyway.

 

And there wasn't much outcry for Achter by August and September, after he had already been passed over for so long the writing was on the wall for him.  If he's one of the first on your offseason chopping block, who cares if he gets buried for a better pitcher. A large part of this is identifying what pieces you need, trust, and want to keep, and prioritizing accordingly, and the Twins don't seem to be doing that much in the pen.

 

 

First of all, again I am not limiting it to September, there was plenty of opportunity and need to improve the pen before then.  A September call-up may not be a big deal, but it was the Twins decisions in August, July, June, etc. that reduced the potential opportunity here to a September call-up.  Just like it was the Twins decision not to pursue Sipp, Kelley, Lowe, Benoit, K Rod, Cahill, etc. that reduced the TD debate du jour to "Bastardo or bust".

 

Really, I am just trying to get a handle on a strategy and what this team thinks is important.  In isolation, you can always make a case for a particular guy staying down in the minors, or not signing a particular FA, but the Twins have done these things so much lately in the pen, even while competing and hopefully putting together another contender, it amounts to is a lot of inaction and a lot of complacency.

 

The strategy is don't overpay for veteran relievers (especially years), give priority to internal evaluation, emphasize internal talent, don't make changes unless forced to, flood with numbers. I'm not saying it's all good or I fully agree, but it's not especially mysterious. 

 

While I agree there was a need in the bullpen for much of the year, I don't really agree there was plenty of opportunity to improve. Even a good move (Jepsen) was crushed on this board, I can only imagine the response to another trade. And I'm a little skeptical that the pitchers often cited as available to be called up (Berrios aside) would have made much of a difference. But of course that conversation has been hashed, rehashed, beaten to death, resurrected, beaten to a second death, rehashed again, etc.

 

IAnd 'm just not that worked up about Rogers. He'll be good or he won't this year. He's one of many options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The strategy is don't overpay for veteran relievers (especially years), give priority to internal evaluation, emphasize internal talent, don't make changes unless forced to, flood with numbers. I'm not saying it's all good or I fully agree, but it's not especially mysterious. 

I get that's their stated reason for not signing a FA reliever, but that still doesn't explain random marginal low-K reliever Aaron Thompson both getting first crack at the pen (for half a season!) and then needlessly occupying a 40-man spot at the end of the year while you don't have a true long reliever.  Still doesn't explain spending money and a guaranteed roster spot on 33 year old Stauffer to replace Swarzak as the spot starter and low leverage reliever.  Still doesn't explain calling up O'Rourke and not using him (or worse, using him vs RHB).  Still doesn't really explain locking in guys like Duensing who have no future here (and very little present).  Still doesn't really explain keeping guys like Tonkin and Achter around on the 40-man roster forever with little desire to even look at them.

 

While I agree there was a need in the bullpen for much of the year, I don't really agree there was plenty of opportunity to improve. Even a good move (Jepsen) was crushed on this board, I can only imagine the response to another trade. And I'm a little skeptical that the pitchers often cited as available to be called up (Berrios aside) would have made much of a difference. But of course that conversation has been hashed, rehashed, beaten to death, resurrected, beaten to a second death, rehashed again, etc.

 

Well, any move can get crushed here, I wouldn't let that say much about the Jepsen deal.

 

But the opportunity in 2015 wasn't all trade.  It was offseason 2014-2015 (Stauffer), it was who they were giving innings to throughout the season (Thompson).  Some of those weren't a big deal at the time since we weren't likely to compete, but as the season wore on, how about pulling arguably our best reliever for a spot start in August?  How about a similar offseason approach this winter?

 

Just like the opportunity this winter isn't all Bastardo at 3/18, there were plenty of other guys, perhaps better, moving around cheaper than that earlier this winter.  Some perfectly fitting the Twins stated bullpen ideals (veterans on shorter commitments).

 

And you could dismiss practically any bullpen move as not likely to be a difference maker, but teams still make those moves to try to improve, as they should.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And 'm just not that worked up about Rogers. He'll be good or he won't this year. He's one of many options.

Me neither, I just brought him up to explain why I'm not that worked up about Berrios specifically (the thread topic), but I am worked up about the Twins approach across a number of guys.

 

Sorry it would up making this another bullpen thread, although to be fair, Seth alone started two bullpen threads today.

[mnfanforlife]

Did you see that Berrios is ranked #4 among RHP prospects?  MLB columnist Callis was also curious why the Twins failed to see how Berrios could have propelled them further at the end of last season.

[DaveW]

If the Twins arent going to try to make any legitimate signings or trades prior to this season starting to make them a real contender, there really isn't a reason to bring up Berrios prior to his "deadline" the way The Twins view 2016 now (even if they don't admidt it) is that it's still a rebuilding ball club, might as well bank that extra year of control for Berrios and anyone else while you can.

[mnfanforlife]

Good news! Molitor is going to be open minded about the possibility of Berrios making the roster on opening day!

[mnfanforlife]

 

If the Twins arent going to try to make any legitimate signings or trades prior to this season starting to make them a real contender, there really isn't a reason to bring up Berrios prior to his "deadline" the way The Twins view 2016 now (even if they don't admidt it) is that it's still a rebuilding ball club, might as well bank that extra year of control for Berrios and anyone else while you can.

The only reason the Twins would want to secure team control for an additional year for any of their young talents.....is if they feel like they will not be able to extend any of their young players past their arbitration years. The business side of baseball can strain relationships between players and organizations. Berrios obviously wanted to make his debut last Sept during the playoff push. The organization would like to delay that start of his service clock ($$$$$$). This could put a damper on future negotiations. Berrios respects Ryan's decision, but that doesn't mean he likes it, or the org's way of handling his career. Spring Training should be full of reasons to start Berrios in the show.

[nicksaviking]

 

The only reason the Twins would want to secure team control for an additional year for any of their young talents.....is if they feel like they will not be able to extend any of their young players past their arbitration years.

 

That's not true though, it's not like Berrios would take the same deal if he's three years from free agency that he would if he's two years from free agency. Take the hypothetical situation where the Twins would normally have Berrios for six years + two extension years; if he's called up early, they aren't automatically going to be able to get him to do five years + three extension years instead.

 

Also, team control for five years instead of six would make it awfully tempting to want to test the free agent market and refuse to talk extension at all.

[clone52]

 

Berrios pitched 75 innings total in AAA  and had much higher numbers That would lead me to believe that the league was figuring him out. So if I ignore 1/3 of someone's season, I can make them look better or worse depending on my agenda.

 

Cherrypicked stats are a bit of a pet peeve

 

 

50% of his AAA runs were given up in his first 3 starts.  Sounds like he started figuring the league out.

 

Maybe you should dig into the stats a little deeper before criticizing someone for cherry picking their stats.

 

 

[BK432]

 

The only reason the Twins would want to secure team control for an additional year for any of their young talents.....is if they feel like they will not be able to extend any of their young players past their arbitration years. The business side of baseball can strain relationships between players and organizations. Berrios obviously wanted to make his debut last Sept during the playoff push. The organization would like to delay that start of his service clock ($$$$$$). This could put a damper on future negotiations. Berrios respects Ryan's decision, but that doesn't mean he likes it, or the org's way of handling his career. Spring Training should be full of reasons to start Berrios in the show.

 

This isn't really true, as Nicksaviking said. The economics of a future deal change the closer you get to arbitration/FA.

 

And, teams delay the start of service clock all the time. I hate it, personally. Anything that takes money out of the players' pockets and keeps it in the owners' is disappointing. But it is the current rule and I seriously doubt it would "put a damper on future negotiations."

[mnfanforlife]

Possible that Berrios, and Sano for that matter, are doing the politically correct thing.....saying they are fine with Ryan's decisions to delay service time and transition positions, respectively. But when it comes time to pick between the Twins and some other Major League organization...they will not be forgetting how this organization valued their services as burgeoning stars. And other teams will not hesitate to remind these guys how things went down in Minnesota. "They never believed in Big Papi. They never believed in you, Miguel.  It will never work for a star as bright as yours in Minnesota. Its not the Twins way"

[Reider]

 

Possible that Berrios, and Sano for that matter, are doing the politically correct thing.....saying they are fine with Ryan's decisions to delay service time and transition positions, respectively. But when it comes time to pick between the Twins and some other Major League organization...they will not be forgetting how this organization valued their services as burgeoning stars. And other teams will not hesitate to remind these guys how things went down in Minnesota. "They never believed in Big Papi. They never believed in you, Miguel.  It will never work for a star as bright as yours in Minnesota. Its not the Twins way"

And then he will respond by asking why Torii Hunter came back home if what they are saying is true.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Berrios hasn't been mis-managed. One could argue the current rotation has, but not Berrios.

 

I would really feel more comfortable if we knew that Nolasco and Hughes had about the shortest leashes available though. I might be alone, but I'm very worried about Hughes. If we get through spring training and his fastball is still only at 90 MPH as it was last year, I'm going to feel pretty confident saying that whatever ailed him last year (if something was truly ailing him) isn't going to be reversed; his breaking stuff is just not good enough for him to get by with a 90 MPH heater.

I think a case could be made that he was mismanaged in 2015 by spending all of his innings in the minors rather than leaving a few in the tank for a September call up or been available for the bullpen games played for the last week of August. He was ready for it all year and the FO made a decision to not manage his innings as such.

 

I think he and the team would have benefited having him available last year, and would have made this spring's rotation competition much more interesting.

[howieramone2]

 

I think a case could be made that he was mismanaged in 2015 by spending all of his innings in the minors rather than leaving a few in the tank for a September call up or been available for the bullpen games played for the last week of August. He was ready for it all year and the FO made a decision to not manage his innings as such.

I think he and the team would have benefited having him available last year, and would have made this spring's rotation competition much more interesting.

Actually he wasn't. His first 2 AAA starts in July were rough and Duffey ended up beating him out. Great move by our favorite team bringing up the most ready pitcher to help during the hunt. I have no reason to believe if it came down to Berrios or Duffey this season, Berrios will win.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Actually he wasn't. His first 2 AAA starts in July were rough and Duffey ended up beating him out. Great move by our favorite team bringing up the most ready pitcher to help during the hunt. I have no reason to believe if it came down to Berrios or Duffey this season, Berrios will win.

 

They did a great job with Duffey in 2015, but I think it was less of a risk for the organization to gamble with Duffey's readiness than it was for Berrios. If Duffey flops and he takes a step backwards in his progression, it's not as big of a loss as if it were Berrios, and to your point, maybe Duffey was more ready, he certainly proved himself to be ready, where Berrios did not. 2 poor starts in transition does not prove to me that Berrios was not ready. 

 

every step along the way brings new challenges. for Berrios only needing two starts to adjust to a higher level of competition speaks to how ready he was of the bigs.

I agree that Duffey/Berrios competition, Berrios wins. Its Milone, Hughes, Santana, Nolaco and Gibson that I'm not sure if it matters who is the better pitcher.

 

from a contract standpoint, I get why he should start in AAA, but from a talent/readiness/improve the team standpoint, it would have been better for Berrios's clock to start last August/September as well as Duffey. 

[mnfanforlife]

 

 I have no reason to believe if it came down to Berrios or Duffey this season, Berrios will win.

 

I have two reasons to believe Berrios would be a better major league option than Duffey, right now, here in the present.

 

1. Berrios throws 95-96 with movement. Duffey's 4-seamer is pretty straight at 89

2. Berrios throws a nasty breaking pitch, call it whatev u want. Duffey throws a bugs bunny curveball

 

That being said, I would like to see both in the rotation when the Twins head north.

[Platoon]

The late season moves (or lack thereof) irked me but what really chapped me was the lack of movement earlier in the season, particularly revolving around Oliveros. Instead of finding a spot for him in a MLB bullpen walking a tightrope, they moved him to the Rochester rotation. Argh.

Honestly, there are times I think the Twins LOOK for reasons to NOT promote players, than reasons to promote them!