Thrylos's Top 40 Twins Prospect Countdown

[Seth Stohs]

 

Enjoy your laugh.  Every single team could have added Mike Schmidt, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux in the Rule 4 draft, but they passed; most just once.  Some twice.  Means nothing.

 

It's the fun of prospect rankings... we all have our favorites. Michael isn't even in my Top 30. He most likely won't be in Berardino's/Baseball America's Top 30... but we can all hope on his talent and hope he can stay healthy, and he can be a big leaguer.

[DocBauer]

A few thoughts...perhaps a question or two...

 

Harrison and Michael are both higher than I would rate them. Both still posses potential, neither are that old, but I'm not sure we've really seen anything from them, particularly Harrison, that says they are on track. I hope you are right about Harrison battling injury last season and other pitchers making adjustments. His OB is impressive, and it's certainly easier to teach someone to be aggressive vs being patient, still, he looks more Jorgensen or Moses right now than Plouffe or Sano.

 

I haven't given up on Michael yet and agree he may have a future. And he has shown flashes the last couple of seasons. (But he has to stay on the field) But I'm curious as to your statement that he ML ready now with other the bat and glove. Could you please elaborate? He hasn't played above AA yet, and while he hits LH pitching well, it wou,do seem he has a ways to go to hit righties.

 

Whenever I read lists like this, one thing that always jumps out to me is how many young Latin arms there are with potential in the system. Almost too many to keep track of. Of course, they are mostly all A ball or lower, but there is a ton of potential there.

[Thrylos]

 

A few thoughts...perhaps a question or two...

Harrison and Michael are both higher than I would rate them. Both still posses potential, neither are that old, but I'm not sure we've really seen anything from them, particularly Harrison, that says they are on track. I hope you are right about Harrison battling injury last season and other pitchers making adjustments. His OB is impressive, and it's certainly easier to teach someone to be aggressive vs being patient, still, he looks more Jorgensen or Moses right now than Plouffe or Sano.

I haven't given up on Michael yet and agree he may have a future. And he has shown flashes the last couple of seasons. (But he has to stay on the field) But I'm curious as to your statement that he ML ready now with other the bat and glove. Could you please elaborate? He hasn't played above AA yet, and while he hits LH pitching well, it wou,do seem he has a ways to go to hit righties.

Whenever I read lists like this, one thing that always jumps out to me is how many young Latin arms there are with potential in the system. Almost too many to keep track of. Of course, they are mostly all A ball or lower, but there is a ton of potential there.

 

Re: Michael.  He is MLB-ready as far as I am concerned.  He really 'clicked' this season, and starting getting the game.  In previous seasons he was very tentative; that is gone now.  Mientikiewitz had him lead off or in the 9th spot (about half time each) for 80% of the games. As a lead off hitter he hit .250/.383/.375.   When he led off an inning (no matter what position in the order he was playing, he hit .286/.435/.449.  Situationally, with bases empty, he hit .252/.377/.400.   He gets it that if nobody is on, a walk might be as good as a hit, if you are not going to hit it out of the park; and he is not.   If you like composite hitting metrics, he had a .375 wOBA , and 131 wRC+ ; Buxton's were .381 and .135.  wOBA and wRC+ do not work on comparing different kinds of players, i.e. a comparison of Michael with a power hitter like Sano or Vargas or Walker (because it favors power hitters), but it works in comparing similar players.  He matured all over this season and, if healthy, he will be a Twin sooner than later.

 

Re: Harrison:  He is the same age and has played at the same level as Max Kepler, with slightly better results than Kepler, other than this season.   Kepler "got it" this season.   Harrison is due.  I think that staying healthy and having a single position to play will do wonders for him.  Another comparable:  Gordon.  And I would argue that Harrison has done better than Gordon (other than fielding) in their first 2 pro seasons.  Really feel that Harrison will have a great 2016.

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Michael ranking doesn't surprise me, Thrylos has been high on him for a while, and health issues aside, he's been pretty good in AA the last two years.  Given his pedigree and injury history, he might be something decent...

 

And yeah, people do make mistakes all the time.  How many times was Pujols passed on in the draft?  Thrylos makes his fair share of them too.  Perhaps this is one of them.  Perhaps it isn't.  Time will tell.

 

The LH/RH splits bother me a bit more though, as the bulk of pitchers he'd face will be from the right side. Those are some extreme numbers. Probably guarantees him a lefty specialist job though in the majors..

[clutterheart]

Enjoy your laugh. Every single team could have added Mike Schmidt, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux in the Rule 4 draft, but they passed; most just once. Some twice. Means nothing.

Surely you can see there is a difference between be passed over in the amateur draft and the rule 5 draft?

 

Hopefully you are right and every scouting dept in the leauge is wrong about Michael because if Dozier Escobar Polanco and Santana all go down Michael might be needed.

[nicksaviking]

I didn't like the Michael pick as I wanted a half dozen HS arms instead, and that ranking seems really high.

 

Yet I can't help but also feel that Michael looks like the kind of guy who could come out of nowhere and then we look back at his numbers the last couple years and say, oh, I get it now.

 

I think he'll end up being a decent MLB player. Minor leaguers who can get on base so often seem to figure it out.

[shs_59]

 

I didn't like the Michael pick as I wanted a half dozen HS arms instead, and that ranking seems really high.

Yet I can't help but also feel that Michael looks like the kind of guy who could come out of nowhere and then we look back at his numbers the last couple years and say, oh, I get it now.

I think he'll end up being a decent MLB player. Minor leaguers who can get on base so often seem to figure it out.

 

In The Levi MIchael Draft the Twins were targetting Both LHP Sean Gilmartan (solid player)  and 2B Joe Panik (good player) in that draft.

 

But they both got taken consecutively juuuust before the Twins picked and sitting there at #29 or so they took Levi Michael with their top 2 targets JUST gone.

 

Such a shame.

[Thrylos]

 

 if Dozier Escobar Polanco and Santana all go down Michael might be needed.

 

Not the way that works.  Polanco is a shortstop whose seat Escobar is keeping warm.  If they (and they should mid-season) sell high on Dozier, Michael should be the starting second baseman.  Santana is a utility player like Nunez...

[clutterheart]

 

Not the way that works.  Polanco is a shortstop whose seat Escobar is keeping warm.  If they (and they should mid-season) sell high on Dozier, Michael should be the starting second baseman.  Santana is a utility player like Nunez...

 

I think the org thinks Polanco is a SS in name only.  They don't seem to trust his glove.

But I dunno.  Hopefully you are right about Michael and I am wrong!

[Thrylos]

6-10 are up here.

[nytwinsfan]

 

6-10 are up here.

Thylos, I don't always agree with you (see, e.g., regarding Buxton), but I do appreciate you highlighting some of the younger prospects in the DSL and GCL who otherwise we don't really hear much about. And it is useful to hear a unique perspective that seems to be somewhat outside the prospect echo chamber. You also clearly put a lot of effort into this, which I also appreciate.

[Ncgo4]

Holy crap!  7, 8 & 9 are shortstops!?!  

 

I sure hope our Mr. Thrylos is correct about this.  A ML quality shortstop can be a very good bargaining chip in a trade.  This could put the Twins in a real good position in a few years.  It's even more exciting when considering the season that Santana had last year.

 

Here's hoping that Santana has a very good follow up year and that last year doesn't prove to be a Kurt Suzuki-like redux.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Thrylos, cannot fault you for being bold.  Javier I could see based on what I've read on him, though this isn't the Twins of 5 years ago where Javier would instantly be the top prospect for bonus reasons only...

 

That said, have you seen Palacios play?  I'm honestly curious. I'm bullish on the kid, but not top 10 bullish.. yet..  (though I have a few guys you exclude for ML experience reasons).  Just curious what your two cents are there.

[clutterheart]

 

That said, have you seen Palacios play?  I'm honestly curious. I'm bullish on the kid, but not top 10 bullish.. yet..  (though I have a few guys you exclude for ML experience reasons).  Just curious what your two cents are there.

Im not Thrylos but people who have seen Palacios play don't question his bat.  They question his ability to stick at SS.  

This is from John Sickels who ranked him #12 way back in Nov:

12) Jermaine Palacios, SS, Grade B-/C+: Aggressive ranking but I’ll take a risk here, hit .370/.398/.540 between GCL and Appy League, age 19, reports indicate solid tools across-the-board and a chance to hit for both average and power. Glove needs work but bat may be good enough to move elsewhere.

 

Compare that to his thoughts on Gordon and you can see why people who have seen them play think Gordon has a chance to stay a SS and hit.

 

4) Nick Gordon, SS, Grade B+/B: Other than a May slump he had a fine season in Low-A, hitting .302/.347/.416 in the second half, stealing 25 bases and convincing most Midwest League observers that he can be an above-average defensive shortstop. Makeup also draws praise. Age 20.

 

[Ncgo4]

 

Holy crap!  7, 8 & 9 are shortstops!?!  

 

I sure hope our Mr. Thrylos is correct about this.  A ML quality shortstop can be a very good bargaining chip in a trade.  This could put the Twins in a real good position in a few years.  It's even more exciting when considering the season that Santana had last year.

 

Here's hoping that Santana has a very good follow up year and that last year doesn't prove to be a Kurt Suzuki-like redux.

I said Santana, sorry, I meant Escobar.

[Thrylos]

 

Thrylos, cannot fault you for being bold.  Javier I could see based on what I've read on him, though this isn't the Twins of 5 years ago where Javier would instantly be the top prospect for bonus reasons only...

 

That said, have you seen Palacios play?  I'm honestly curious. I'm bullish on the kid, but not top 10 bullish.. yet..  (though I have a few guys you exclude for ML experience reasons).  Just curious what your two cents are there.

 

Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Meyer all graduated from my list.  That takes him up to 12.  Better?

 

I saw him play a couple times.  What I liked is that he is able to make adjustments within plate appearances depending on how the pitcher is pitching him, which is not an extremely intuitive thing to do...  Several major leaguers lack that.  His hitting approach reminds me a bit of Edgar Martinez or John Olerud (of course the kid is much more raw than that and does not have the total execution yet,) if that helps explain what I mean.  Those continuous adjustments during a PA.  

 

Finding him a position will be challenging.  He is very raw out there.  He has decent instincts getting to the ball, but once there, there is some veil of mystery about the next steps, if you know what I mean.  I suspect that a lot of it is experience.  I cannot judge his arm, because I did not see him test it, but arm is the least of his worries right now.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Compare that to his thoughts on Gordon and you can see why people who have seen them play think Gordon has a chance to stay a SS and hit.

 

4) Nick Gordon, SS, Grade B+/B: Other than a May slump he had a fine season in Low-A, hitting .302/.347/.416 in the second half, stealing 25 bases and convincing most Midwest League observers that he can be an above-average defensive shortstop. Makeup also draws praise. Age 20.

 

This is one of the examples of selective sight regarding Gordon.  (And I do not question his glove.  He has a SS glove)  It was not May only.  In April he had a .652 OPS, in June ended up with a .711 OPS and for the first half he hit .250/.325/.301.   Cannot erase that.  Also cannot disregard that he hit .264/.325/.291 against LHP even during his "fine" stretches.   His total .696 OPS was just at his 2014 .699 OPS.

 

So basically, another way to see it, is a guy who did not show up for the first half of the season and even when he showed up, he was a liability against  lefties.  

 

Is that the truth?  Likely not.  And seeing him play, he looks like a ballplayer, but the truth is likely in the middle, and I am not sure which part of the middle he will end up after just 2 seasons as a pro player.  

 

[Thrylos]

Top 5 are up now, here.

[Han Joelo]

Thanks again for sharing.  As if I needed another reason to feel ok with the Twins offseason bullpen plans, see you have Burdi ranked at 3. confirmed it (along with Chargois and Reed).

 

Plus, regardless of how people want to define "prospect," it's fun to read about some of the new blood.

[Dman]

I don't see the love for Diaz. As you can tell I am not a huge fan.  I like him but not at 5.  He should be behind the shortstops as he might end up a DH and he seems to have a fair amount of miss to his swing.  I guess based on Potential if you see a mini Sano maybe I get it but I see him more as a Vargas type hitter and fielder and I don't believe Vargas ever made the top five.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't see the love for Diaz. As you can tell I am not a huge fan.  I like him but not at 5.  He should be behind the shortstops as he might end up a DH and he seems to have a fair amount of miss to his swing.  I guess based on Potential if you see a mini Sano maybe I get it but I see him more as a Vargas type hitter and fielder and I don't believe Vargas ever made the top five.

 

I had Vargas ranked at 7 in the 2014 off-season list, behind only Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, Stewart & Polanco.   Totally different quality of prospects then than now.   I have seen Diaz and Vargas play at the same age and Diaz is much ahead of Vargas.  Vargas was just growing into his body at that age, Diaz is more Sano-like in that respect as far as body control.  Just bad glove, but he cannot even buy a beer yet.

 

As far as the shortstops go, I could have ranked Javier higher, but I have not seen him play yet, unlike the other two, and I like Diaz better than both. 

[DocBauer]

While each of our own personal opinions as to a top 5,10,15 or 20 list may differ here or there...or vary greatly in some instances...I definitely appreciate your perspectives and not being afraid to include such young talents near the top of your list despite limited history. Obviously your rankings are based more on pure potential, often, and not readiness. I think that's pretty cool actually.

 

Reading your reports on Berrios and Jay, within a vacuum, what I read is a better change up would project each toward the top of the rotation. What that be accurate to speculate?

 

I don't know if it's wishful thinking or not, but I've always been impressed with Gonsalves. (More than some it seems) He seems to be a bright young man with some bulldog in him. Maybe not as much as Berrios, but it seems to be there. I don't know if he can ever rise to the top of the rotation, but makeup, stuff at THIS POINT, and enough length to go along with additional physical maturation, I have really high hopes for him. Pure projectability, I'm not so sure he shouldn't be above Jay.

[Thrylos]

 

While each of our own personal opinions as to a top 5,10,15 or 20 list may differ here or there...or vary greatly in some instances...I definitely appreciate your perspectives and not being afraid to include such young talents near the top of your list despite limited history. Obviously your rankings are based more on pure potential, often, and not readiness. I think that's pretty cool actually.

Reading your reports on Berrios and Jay, within a vacuum, what I read is a better change up would project each toward the top of the rotation. What that be accurate to speculate?

I don't know if it's wishful thinking or not, but I've always been impressed with Gonsalves. (More than some it seems) He seems to be a bright young man with some bulldog in him. Maybe not as much as Berrios, but it seems to be there. I don't know if he can ever rise to the top of the rotation, but makeup, stuff at THIS POINT, and enough length to go along with additional physical maturation, I have really high hopes for him. Pure projectability, I'm not so sure he shouldn't be above Jay.

 

Berrios and Jay are at different places right now.   Jay is very much a big unknown.  His stuff is superior to Berrios', he can sustain high 90s in spurs even in back to back days, but we don't know how all of that will translate as a starter.  Changeup or not.

Berrios never had premium stuff.  But he has been working his rear end off and really has learned how to pitch and I think that he is at the point that he knows what he has and he can throw his best pitch at the right time.  A better changeup will help him.  A lot. (Paging Mr Cuellar)

 

Will either be top of the rotation guys?  Not sure.  We got to see how the transition with Jay to starter goes.  Berrios is a lot like Gibson was in the minors (in my head) as far as potential. 

 

Gonsalves has the potential to be that sneaky lefty that makes things happen without being stellar, but just makes things happen; think Jimmy Key or David Cone.  Lots of potential and youth there.

 

The other thing about Jay (and Burdi) is that come next April either of them could be handed the Twins' closer job and the team would be better than it is with its current proven closer...  Not that it will happen, but just sayin'....

[mudcat14]

 

Holy crap!  7, 8 & 9 are shortstops!?!  

 

And none of them are named Vielma, who is probably the best glove man and closest to the show of any SS in the system.

[Thrylos]

 

And none of them are named Vielma, who is probably the best glove man and closest to the show of any SS in the system.

 

Not quite.  Polanco is closer/has been there.  Vielma is here, along with the reason he is there.

[markos]

I'm curious to know what specific things you are using to differentiate between Gonsalves and Stewart. You have a pretty large numeric gap between them (#4 vs #13), so I'm assuming there is a decent gap between them in your mind. In my own opinion, I think they are really close - they are both really young pitchers with lots of upside who struggled to miss bats in the FSL. 

[Seth Stohs]

Just looking at some compilation lists... some names missing (though I may have missed them) that showed up on more than one other list:

 

Stuart Turner -
Randy Rosario -
Brian Navarreto -

[mudcat14]

 

Not quite.  Polanco is closer/has been there.  Vielma is here, along with the reason he is there.

 

Sorry, I wasn't suggesting Engelb should be higher, just pointing out the organizational depth.  Also,I forgot about Polanco.  Probably because I really see him as a 2B more than a SS.  Thanks for the very detailed report.  I enjoyed it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Berrios and Jay are at different places right now.   Jay is very much a big unknown.  His stuff is superior to Berrios', he can sustain high 90s in spurs even in back to back days, but we don't know how all of that will translate as a starter.  Changeup or not.

Berrios never had premium stuff.  But he has been working his rear end off and really has learned how to pitch and I think that he is at the point that he knows what he has and he can throw his best pitch at the right time.  A better changeup will help him.  A lot. (Paging Mr Cuellar)

 

Will either be top of the rotation guys?  Not sure.  We got to see how the transition with Jay to starter goes.  Berrios is a lot like Gibson was in the minors (in my head) as far as potential. 

 

Gonsalves has the potential to be that sneaky lefty that makes things happen without being stellar, but just makes things happen; think Jimmy Key or David Cone.  Lots of potential and youth there.

 

The other thing about Jay (and Burdi) is that come next April either of them could be handed the Twins' closer job and the team would be better than it is with its current proven closer...  Not that it will happen, but just sayin'....

 

sounds like if it was possible to combine the 2 you'd have a sure thing ace...

[Thrylos]

 

Just looking at some compilation lists... some names missing (though I may have missed them) that showed up on more than one other list:

 

Stuart Turner -
Randy Rosario -
Brian Navarreto -

 

I am actually working on a single 1-40 list with some meta analysis, like positions, ETA etc.  Probably will be done by Friday.

 

Rosario was close, just did not make the final cut.  Still iffy about how well he is after TJ surgery; has always had C&C issues.  I just want to see more.  Definitely in the top 45

 

Navarreto is more of a cut candidate than a prospect. .217/.256/.281 for the season in any level is sub-Buterean Blues territory.  

 

Speaking of, Butera looks like the projection of Turner's career.  Major disappointment at the AFL (.171/.306/.220) and has been regressing with the bat every single season.  Better than Navaretto and definitely in the prospect conversation, but if you cannot better .628 OPS in AA...