Mets- Royals: World Series Predictions

[twinsnorth49]

Should be an error on Duda, but Wright totally screwed that up as well.

 

Jack Morris >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Harvey

I've know, but they all pretended like Duda's throw was an after thought.

 

I also like how a huge gamble by Hosmer, one which he's probably thrown out 99 times out of 100 has become the greatest base running play in WS history to Joe Buck.

[twinsnorth49]

Again, baseball shows why it is the greatest and cruelest sport.

 

The manager reluctantly leaves Harvey in the game, because Harvey "argued" his way into pitching the ninth.

 

The reality: The Royals appear to have Familia's number and it made sense to let Harvey stay in the game.

Maybe so but they haven't got the ball out of the infield through 5 batters so far.

[DaveW]

 

I've know, but they all pretended like Duda's throw was an after thought.

I also like how a huge gamble by Hosmer, one which he's probably thrown out 99 times out of 100 has become the greatest base running play in WS history to Joe Buck.

99 out of 100? Nah, even a "good" throw it can end up a bang bang play because of the tag and slide. I say with an average throw Hosmer still has a 40% shot. Great throw nails him dead to rights etc, with that said, that is what you can do when you are up three games to one.

[twinsnorth49]

99 out of 100? Nah, even a "good" throw it can end up a bang bang play because of the tag and slide. I say with an average throw Hosmer still has a 40% shot. Great throw nails him dead to rights etc, with that said, that is what you can do when you are up three games to one.

Ok, a bit hyperbolic on my part, but not 40%, I disagree. Looking at the replay, when the ball goes past the plate, Hosmer isn't even in the picture yet, a decent throw nails him and it appears he didn't have to hurry all that much really.

[DaveW]

 

Ok, a bit hyperbolic on my part, but not 40%, I disagree. Looking at the replay, when the ball goes past the plate, Hosmer isn't even in the picture yet, a decent throw nails him and it appears he didn't have to hurry all that much really.

Agree to disagree I suppose, besides these are all hypothetical numbers anyways. I think the slide+tag adds into the whole thing (vs a force play). Even if he makes a decent throw but a little high and towards 1st base, Hosmer has a good shot to beat it with a good slide.

[DaveW]

Also I think the element of surprise had a LOT to do with it. Nobody, and I mean nobody would have predicted that Hosmer broke for home in that situation.

[USAFChief]

Should be an error on Duda, but Wright totally screwed that up as well.

 

Jack Morris >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Harvey

I'm Not sure what Wright screwed up there. Cut off the grounder, froze Hosmer, and pegged a perfect throw to Duda.

[DaveW]

 

I'm Not sure what Wright screwed up there. Cut off the grounder, froze Hosmer, and pegged a perfect throw to Duda.

Never should have fielded it to begin with, also you can look him back a tick longer etc.

 

90% blame on Duda 10% on Wright.

[Blake]

 

Maybe so but they haven't got the ball out of the infield through 5 batters so far.

Two blown saves in the Series is enough to give any manager pause.

[biggentleben]

 

I'm Not sure what Wright screwed up there. Cut off the grounder, froze Hosmer, and pegged a perfect throw to Duda.

 

Once he fielded it, he did everything right. However, Flores would have had a  better view on the runner and a clean field on the ball if Wright didn't cut him off from fielding it. 9 times out of 10, that ball is just who can get to it best, but in that one situation, Flores was probably the best guy to field.

[twinsnorth49]

Flores could have definitely looked Hosmer farther back to the bag before throwing out the runner.

[Willihammer]

 

Harvey's ego could cost the Mets this game. Can't believe Collins let himself get talked into that, even if Familia has struggled.

Harvey started to lose it in the 8th, that was clear. Manager to man up and take the ball away. Easier said than done obviously but letting him continue after the leadoff walk? Inexcusable IMO.

[Willihammer]

Feels weird watching Addison Reed. Seems like the Twins stole at least 3-4 games from the Whtiies where he relieved for them.

[twinsnorth49]

Two things would still be standing after a nuclear explosion, cockroaches....and the Kansas City Royals.

[twinsnorth49]

Wow, I'm going out on a limb and saying the Royals are World Series Champs.......

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hosmer has cojones, no doubt about it.

[Willihammer]

They are crazy good team. No superstars but there is not a single hole on that team.

 

Except Butera of course.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Two things would still be standing after a nuclear explosion, cockroaches....and the Kansas City Royals.

And I would take the Royals in 5 in that scenario

[Blake]

 

Way back in July, I put money on KC, in Las Vegas, to win the series. I thought all season that KC was on a mission.

 

So, not only do I think KC will win it, I put money on it.

 

Vested interest, as it were.

I will now quote myself from a few days ago. 

 

Good job, KC!

 

Did I say quote? I meant gloat.

[DaveW]

Good for the Royals! Well earned title.

[mickeymental]

I would call it a career night for mr. butera.

[Pius Jefferson]

If the Royals can win than so can the Twins in the not to distant future.

[USAFChief]

Congrats to the Royals.

 

Now go %**(## yourselves.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not a good World Series. I was hoping the Mets would put up more of a fight.

 

But congrats to the Royals! KC deserved the title, as did their fanbase for suffering through so many years of torturous baseball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think Murphy's error is anywhere near Buckner's in terms of impact.

The Red Sox would've closed out the series.

The ball hit to Murphy was in a series at 2 games to 1. Further, it wasn't a DP ball, there would've been runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out, and Moose-taco's base hit puts the Royals up 4-3 anyway.

I think the math is bad on the impact of this error.

1986 Game 6 was already tied when Buckner made his error, so the Red Sox could not have closed out anything at that point.  (A lot of people forget that it was a wild pitch earlier in the at bat that brought home the tying run.)

 

Given that, it's not far-fetched at all to say the two errors are comparable, in terms of WPA.  (According to the article, Buckner's error was still bigger, probably owing to the fact that Murphy's came in the top of the 8th inning.)

 

Also note that this is just looking at single-game WPA, not taking into account the series state -- obviously by that measure, most of the biggest plays in history happened in a game 6 or 7:

 

http://grantland.com/features/mlb-win-percentage-added-world-series-championship-kirk-gibson-bobby-thomson-david-freese-mariano-rivera-yogi-berra/

 

Note this list still doesn't include Buckner's error.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not a good World Series. I was hoping the Mets would put up more of a fight.

Of course it could have been better, but I'm not sure I'd say this series was "not good."  That feels too greedy (and too influenced by the fantastic series we saw recently in 2011 and 2014).

 

There were two ninth inning comebacks, plus an eighth inning comeback.  A 14 inning game, and a 12 inning game.  Even though it lasted only 5 games total, and the Mets bats fell silent (they batted .193, and only .159 outside their Game 3 victory), I think this meets the minimum threshold for "good" series. If it was any better, like if the Mets had been the beneficiaries of one of those comebacks, it would have been damn good, borderline great.

 

World Series can and often are much worse than this, in terms of competition and interest.  By my count, since the introduction of the wild card, this one is no worse than 11th out of 21, and I could see an argument putting it a spot or two higher too.

[Mike Sixel]

Narrative....announcers seem to need to deal in narrative, and not what actually happens. That was not good base running, imo. A decent throw and he's out. 80% of the time? Let's say you can do the math in your head that fast......what is more likely, someone gets a hit 20% of the time, or that throw is that bad? 

 

Fangraphs (since Grantland is no more, sigh) has a nice set of articles as you'd expect.....

[DaveW]

Narrative....announcers seem to need to deal in narrative, and not what actually happens. That was not good base running, imo. A decent throw and he's out. 80% of the time? Let's say you can do the math in your head that fast......what is more likely, someone gets a hit 20% of the time, or that throw is that bad?

 

Fangraphs (since Grantland is no more, sigh) has a nice set of articles as you'd expect.....

good base running? Debatable, I think it was since Wright sort of lobbed it over to first base.

 

Ballsy base running? Absolutely.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think Murphy's error is anywhere near Buckner's in terms of impact.

The Red Sox would've closed out the series.

The ball hit to Murphy was in a series at 2 games to 1. Further, it wasn't a DP ball, there would've been runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out, and Moose-taco's base hit puts the Royals up 4-3 anyway.

I think the math is bad on the impact of this error.

Another follow-up, I found an article that ranks the errors by *series* win probability rather than single game win probability:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daniel-murphy-and-the-costliest-errors-in-world-series-history/

 

Buckner is #1 at -20%, but Murphy clocks in at a (dis)respectable #6 with -13%.

 

Tony Fernandez, 1997 and Mariano Rivera, 2001 are the other modern examples, just behind Buckner (both occurred in a Game 7).

 

Frankly I am impressed that Murphy's error had that much impact in the top of the 8th in a Game 3, although I suppose there is a big difference between being tied 2-2 or down 3-1 in a series.