Three Teams

[d-mac]

 

As a counter:

 

1) The Twins had an in house guy who they thought might turn out.  Pinto has not but for a rebuilding team, giving Pinto a shot to develop is preferable to spending the large amount of money/prospects needed to get a long-term catcher.  The Twins also drafted two highly thought of catchers to get further lottery tickets.
2) As a result of thinking Pinto had some upside, they went and got Suzuki for the short-term.  Suzuki has been okay and is not inked to an onerous contract.  He would be a fine back up next year.
3) The Cubs were expected to compete this year so they went out to trade for a catcher, Miguel Montero, during the offseason.  Prior to that they were weak.  The Twins did not expect to compete this year and did not trade for a catcher, trusting Suzuki to be okay and hoping Pinto bounced back.  However, that didn’t work and they are expected to compete next year and are expected to do the same in the offseason.

 

I don’t see this as a difference, I see this as the Twins being a year behind the Cubs and following a remarkably similar path. For your point to be valid, the Twins need to not do anything with catcher this year. I hope that isn’t true. TR is fine by me as far as catcher goes.

False, Pinto was never given a shot. The Twins have never viewed Pinto as a legit starting option. Suzuki, despite what we think was always option 1 for the Twins to be the starting catcher. That is difference number two. Good organizations that are rebuilding let their young kids play to see if they can develop into: part of the future, a piece that can be sold for a part of the future, or a liability that needs to be addressed via trade or free agency. 

[d-mac]

 

That’s a bit disingenuous with Arrieta. He had made over 60 big league starts and was a ML starting pitcher who struggled.  He ended up in the minors for the Cubs in 2013 for 10 games before coming back to the majors because he had stuff to work on.  Arrieta and Hughes had similar ceilings and similar backgrounds – high strikeout pitchers who had shown flashes of dominance without backing it up. Just because Arrieta has reached a higher ceiling thus far doesn’t mean that Hughes didn’t have that same ceiling. You’re retroactively assigning Arrieta a higher ceiling because he reached it.

 

Also disingenuous on the price. The only reason the Twins had to pay Hughes was that he debuted three years earlier.  Arrieta still had arbitration years.  The Twins were able to just give money for Hughes, the Cubs had to trade prospects. I don’t think that the difference is the price paid.

 

Finally, with Pelfrey and Correia.  They didn’t block anyone from the majors unless you count Cole DeVries and PJ Walters.  The Twins were really bad and those vets kept you from pushing guys to the majors super early.  I’d’ve liked a few more lottery tickets too but there’s something to be said for stable mediocrity when the other 3-4 rotation spots are up in the air between people who are not very good.

 

Hughes is not a high strikeout pitcher. Have you ever look at the K rate leaders in the past five years at Fangraphs? 

[jimmer]

 

Ryan has made it clear that after he signs a FA, he will not flip him. (See Willingham) He considers that disrespectful to the player, and has said this will discourage other FA's from signing here in the future.

Then he should step down, because the game is a business and most teams do this and seem to have no issue with getting people to sign anyway.

[d-mac]

 

You are assuming Arrieta was part of a process? Do you have any backup for that?

The Twins are 2 for 3 on big starting pitchers - Nolasco Santana and Hughes.  They are good at getting crap to stick to walls!
 

 

You are clearly not aware of who Theo Epstein is. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

The Twins, when not signing/extending middling veterans, always seem to default to an "in house guy who they think might work out."  Players, managers, GMs, you name it, and that is again an example of a difference between the Twins and Cubs.

 

The Twins did not expect to compete, but bought Ervin Santana anyway? 

 

The 2014 Twins were only 3 wins behind the Cubs (and actually 4 wins ahead of the Cubs by pythag), with no Cardinals in their division.

 

They could have almost certainly explored the market and still re-sign Suzuki, but instead chose to extend him in July -- for two years -- and preemptively pass on the offseason catcher market altogether.

 

When you're a rebuilding team you don't go find an expensive solution.  Pinto was the guy they had time to wait develop, Suzuki was the temporary fix. They could have traded away money or prospects to get another catcher but why not let the young guy develop and see what happens?  They can always do what they'll do this offseason if it doesn't work out.

Santana was signed with an idea towards years #2 and #3 on the deal. No one expected them to compete this year but next year? That's when Santana becomes useful.

Catchers signed last year: Russell Martin, AJ, David Ross, Nick Hundley.  Martin signed for $82 million - no way the Twins should have matched that, especially with Pinto potentially developing.  AJ and Ross are backups at best, Nick Hundley had a nice year at age 32 with no history of success.  Hundley and Suzuki are the same guy basically. The point is that the catching free agent pool is rarely good and the Twins are smart enough to look forward and see that.  They likely got Suzuki, who had a career year, at a discount by not waiting til other teams could big against them. The Twins will tackle catcher via trade this year, as they should since the catcher free agent pool is similar but without Russell Martin. Suzuki last year was a fine decision with the Twins not expected to compete and Pinto/Garver/what's his face potentially developing this year.  That those three did not take a big step doesn't mean the process was wrong.



 

[ThejacKmp]

 

False, Pinto was never given a shot. The Twins have never viewed Pinto as a legit starting option. Suzuki, despite what we think was always option 1 for the Twins to be the starting catcher. That is difference number two. Good organizations that are rebuilding let their young kids play to see if they can develop into: part of the future, a piece that can be sold for a part of the future, or a liability that needs to be addressed via trade or free agency. 

 Pinto never proved it in the minors. At catcher you can't just bring a guy up, he needs to be ready. It's too important even for a crappy team. It's not like a crappy 3Bman.

[Platoon]

As a counter:

 

1) The Twins had an in house guy who they thought might turn out.  Pinto has not but for a rebuilding team, giving Pinto a shot to develop is preferable to spending the large amount of money/prospects needed to get a long-term catcher.  The Twins also drafted two highly thought of catchers to get further lottery tickets.

2) As a result of thinking Pinto had some upside, they went and got Suzuki for the short-term.  Suzuki has been okay and is not inked to an onerous contract.  He would be a fine back up next year.

3) The Cubs were expected to compete this year so they went out to trade for a catcher, Miguel Montero, during the offseason.  Prior to that they were weak.  The Twins did not expect to compete this year and did not trade for a catcher, trusting Suzuki to be okay and hoping Pinto bounced back.  However, that didn’t work and they are expected to compete next year and are expected to do the same in the offseason.

 

I don’t see this as a difference, I see this as the Twins being a year behind the Cubs and following a remarkably similar path. For your point to be valid, the Twins need to not do anything with catcher this year. I hope that isn’t true. TR is fine by me as far as catcher goes.

Anyone who has ever watched a Ryan/Gardenhire team, and thought that Pinto had a snowballs chance in Tuscon of ever catching once Suzuki was signed, has not been paying attention. I am not arguing that Pinto was better or not, for that discussion is a moot point!

[ThejacKmp]

 

You are clearly not aware of who Theo Epstein is. 

Oh so you're saying that reputation is what matters? Because Theo has won awards he has a process and no one else does?  Even great GMs or CEOs or presidents can get lucky sometimes. Your prejudices say that TR has no process and Theo does. Seems crazy that someone is running an organization on the rise just by guessing.

[d-mac]

 

 Pinto never proved it in the minors. At catcher you can't just bring a guy up, he needs to be ready. It's too important even for a crappy team. It's not like a crappy 3Bman.

 

An OPS over .850 in AA and AAA seems to disagree with you. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That’s a bit disingenuous with Arrieta. He had made over 60 big league starts and was a ML starting pitcher who struggled.  He ended up in the minors for the Cubs in 2013 for 10 games before coming back to the majors because he had stuff to work on.  Arrieta and Hughes had similar ceilings and similar backgrounds – high strikeout pitchers who had shown flashes of dominance without backing it up. Just because Arrieta has reached a higher ceiling thus far doesn’t mean that Hughes didn’t have that same ceiling. You’re retroactively assigning Arrieta a higher ceiling because he reached it.

 

Also disingenuous on the price. The only reason the Twins had to pay Hughes was that he debuted three years earlier.  Arrieta still had arbitration years.  The Twins were able to just give money for Hughes, the Cubs had to trade prospects. I don’t think that the difference is the price paid.

In terms of experience and salary, Hughes was a closer asset match for Feldman than for Arrieta, that's all I was saying.  (And indeed, ultimately the Twins may have been better off flipping Hughes as the Cubs did Feldman, especially if Ervin Santana was next on their FA shopping list.)

 

 

Finally, with Pelfrey and Correia.  They didn’t block anyone from the majors unless you count Cole DeVries and PJ Walters.

You are missing the point if you think the problem with Pelfrey and Correia is that they were blocking internal options.  Putting it in those terms is exactly the issue many of us have with the Twins thinking.  The Twins are too often content to simply fill roster spots with mediocre players (even in projected mediocre rebuilding seasons) rather than looking for higher upside / flippable assets.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Flash back 6 months and try to convince a Cubs fan of that.

You mean when the 73-win Cubs bought Maddon, Lester, and Montero to help jump start their return to contention?  That's precisely the opposite of the Twins "right way" to rebuilding.

[USAFChief]

 

The twins contacted Maddon. He said no. They literally made that aggressive move. The job wasn't as enticing as the Cubs job. Or the Dodgers job, which Maddon likely had as a backup.

A:  I could be misremembering, but I thought it was pretty well established that the Twins DIDN'T contact Madden.

 

B:  You're missing the forest for the trees.  The overall point is larger than the individual details of one specific person.  

 

The Cubs think big, and look for ways to excel.  They worry less about the potential costs than the potential gains.

 

The Twins think small, and look for ways not to fail.  They worry less about the potential gains than the potential dangers.

 

Yes, the Cubs have a few resource advantages.  Focusing on that, yet again, misses the point.

[Platoon]

Oh so you're saying that reputation is what matters? Because Theo has won awards he has a process and no one else does?  Even great GMs or CEOs or presidents can get lucky sometimes. Your prejudices say that TR has no process and Theo does. Seems crazy that someone is running an organization on the rise just by guessing.

I don't think the discussion is about a LACK of process? It about the DIFFERENCE in process!

[d-mac]

 

Oh so you're saying that reputation is what matters? Because Theo has won awards he has a process and no one else does?  Even great GMs or CEOs or presidents can get lucky sometimes. Your prejudices say that TR has no process and Theo does. Seems crazy that someone is running an organization on the rise just by guessing.

 

Go ahead, challenge Theo Epstein's record. I dare you. And no, Epstein is not the only GM with sound processes- that's a straw man.  Look at Tampa Bay, look at the Cardinals, The Pirates, the Astros, look at what Beane did with the Athletics! A book was written about their process. 

[DaveW]

 

You mean when the 73-win Cubs bought Maddon, Lester, and Montero to help jump start their return to contention?  That's precisely the opposite of the Twins "right way" to rebuilding.

Not to mention their aggressiveness with calling up prospects.

Sano was brought up too late and only after the Twins were trotting out Nunez and Suzuki as a DH. If Sano was brought up 15 days earlier, they could be in the playoffs right now.

 

Duffey- Waited too long.

Berrios- Don't even get me started.

Meanwhile the Cubs promoted aggressively and it has paid off in spades.

Does anyone think if the Cubs had May and Pelfrey that Theo and Maddon would choose to banish May to the pen?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The twins contacted Maddon. He said no. They literally made that aggressive move. The job wasn't as enticing as the Cubs job. Or the Dodgers job, which Maddon likely had as a backup.

Did you read my post?  I said Maddon was another example of aggressiveness from the Cubs, an aggressiveness that is absent from virtually every Twins move.  I really think you are missing that point here, and getting sidetracked by "Twins didn't do specific move X because of Y."  The point is, the Twins NEVER make ANY moves like move X (and often using the same justification Y).

[d-mac]

 

Not to mention their aggressiveness with calling up prospects.

Sano was brought up too late and only after the Twins were trotting out Nunez and Suzuki as a DH. If Sano was brought up 15 days earlier, they could be in the playoffs right now.

 

Duffey- Waited too long.

Berrios- Don't even get me started.

Meanwhile the Cubs promoted aggressively and it has paid off in spades.

Does anyone think if the Cubs had May and Pelfrey that Theo and Maddon would choose to banish May to the pen?

 

+1,000

[DaveW]

 

 

Go ahead, challenge Theo Epstein's record. I dare you. And no, Epstein is not the only GM with sound processes- that's a straw man.  Look at Tampa Bay, look at the Cardinals, The Pirates, the Astros, look at what Beane did with the Athletics! A book was written about their process. 

And much like the Ryan process the Beane process stopped working, which is why he did the right and unselfish thing for the club and stepped down from the GM role....meanwhile at One Twins Way it continues to be business as usual, because their is ultimately no pressure on anyone in the Twins org. Nobody is held accountable and rarely is anyone actually fired, it's almost the equivalent of the DMV, conservative, slow to react to change (how long did it take the Twins to actually say "oh yeah, maybe we do need some hard throwers instead of pitch to contact"?) but hey, it's nearly impossible to get fired!

[d-mac]

 

Did you read my post?  I said Maddon was another example of aggressiveness from the Cubs, an aggressiveness that is absent from virtually every Twins move.  I really think you are missing that point here, and getting sidetracked by "Twins didn't do specific move X because of Y."  The point is, the Twins NEVER make ANY moves like move X (and often using the same justification Y).

LOL you should totally throw the flag for excessive use of strawman on him.

 

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/995/415/b30.jpg

[d-mac]

 

And much like the Ryan process the Beane process stopped working, which is why he did the right and unselfish thing for the club and stepped down from the GM role....meanwhile at One Twins Way it continues to be business as usual, because their is ultimately no pressure on anyone in the Twins org. Nobody is held accountable and rarely is anyone actually fired, it's almost the equivalent of the DMV, conservative, slow to react to change (how long did it take the Twins to actually say "oh yeah, maybe we do need some hard throwers instead of pitch to contact"?) but hey, it's nearly impossible to get fired!

 

And TR's process never inspired a whole bunch of teams to change their processes and hire like minded people. Beane did that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It has certainly been worth what they put into it - maybe not the extension but the first signing based on that first year alone.

Was that first year really worth that much, going forward?  If he was worth 5 WAR last year, that took the Twins from 65 to 70 wins, dropped our draft/waiver/Rule 5 position 3-4 spots, AND prompted the possibly ill-advised extension despite signing Ervin Santana too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I took it as one example of an aggressive move that Chicago makes, that the Twins don't, not necessarily a specific move that the Twins should have or could have made.

 

Heck, Epstein himself is there because the Cubs were aggressive at bringing in someone from outside the organization too.  Again, not that the Twins could have landed Epstein specifically, but it's hard to imagine a less aggressive front office leadership sequence than Bill Smith, Terry Ryan (again), and Rob Antony as (occasional acting) GM-in-waiting.

I agree the Twins are conservative, probably to a fault... But I think using Epstein and Maddon as examples is a bit far-fetched.

 

But, like you, I'd like to see a bit more forward-thinking in this org, especially at the top.

[USAFChief]

 

   I’d’ve liked a few more lottery tickets too but there’s something to be said for stable mediocrity when the other 3-4 rotation spots are up in the air between people who are not very good.

Concur.

 

There's something to be said, but I don't think it's what you think it is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree the Twins are conservative, probably to a fault... But I think using Epstein and Maddon as examples is a bit far-fetched.

 

But, like you, I'd like to see a bit more forward-thinking in this org, especially at the top.

Maybe I didn't explain it well.  Again, not that the Twins could have gotten Maddon or Epstein specifically, but the Twins GM and managerial progressions are about the exact opposite of that aggressiveness / forward thinking.  And that same stark difference is also plainly evident in our player acquisition processes.

[Squirrel]

 

Yeah, because of who the GM was.

I never read that ... is that really what Maddon said?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Did you read my post?  I said Maddon was another example of aggressiveness from the Cubs, an aggressiveness that is absent from virtually every Twins move.  I really think you are missing that point here, and getting sidetracked by "Twins didn't do specific move X because of Y."  The point is, the Twins NEVER make ANY moves like move X (and often using the same justification Y).

 

I did read it. You said that going after Maddon was an example of aggressiveness. I agree. The Twins went after Maddon too. Yet somehow they are not aggressive?

 

That right there is where you lose me.  Explain further?
 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Concur.

 

There's something to be said, but I don't think it's what you think it is.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that the Twins weren't a team that had only one spot open for lottery tickets. Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia didn't keep the Twins from trying out lottery tickets. The Twins not buying lottery tickets did. Not disagreeing, just not thinking its Pelfrey or Correia's fault (both of them outperformed the meager expectations of the contracts they signed).

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: This is a good, passionate debate ... but don't cross the line and start making it personal towards another poster. Stick to the topic, your talking points, your opinions ... but stop the attacks on other posters.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Was that first year really worth that much, going forward?  If he was worth 5 WAR last year, that took the Twins from 65 to 70 wins, dropped our draft/waiver/Rule 5 position 3-4 spots, AND prompted the possibly ill-advised extension despite signing Ervin Santana too.

 

You can't lose forever. At some point you have to start making moves to solidify a rotation. You can't just suck year after year and then decide to be good by suddenly investing. I guess the Marlins did that when they won the Series but they've also flopped doing that. The Twins started to put some veteran 2/3 starters in place for when the prospects came up. That's a good move.

 

That extension is not ill advised. It's certainly not a huge bargain but Hughes has to be a 4th starter with that amount they are paying him. He seems capable of at least that. If the Twins wanted to unload him they could in a second on that contract (barring injury or him suddenly losing all control). Same thing with Santana.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I never read that ... is that really what Maddon said?

 

I can't find anything anywhere that says this. It basically sounds like Maddon knew he could have the Cubs job and potentially the Dodgers job if he wanted. He took the Cubs one. Never really thought about the other options, including the Twins.

 

Nor should he. Like someone said, the Cubs job is prestigious and has tons of resources. Maddon would be the toast of the town when the Cubs make the playoffs. Most of us would kill to be able to manage our beloved Twins and I bet we'd all take that Cubs job over the Twins job. Its just a better job.