Offseason Trades

[RJM96]

Plouffe's name gets brought up on here a lot. I think the problem is finding someone who wants him. Same thing with Nolasco. Catcher is of high need, but a young, near mlb ready catching prospect is extremely hard to find. (Or acquire) It seems like at some point the Twins are going to have to make room in the rotation for some young arms. What are some trades that make sense for the Twins this offseason? Names?

[diehardtwinsfan]

You won't have too much trouble finding a buyer for Plouffe.  He's an above average 3B (probably right on the border of top 3rd) with service time left and can be extended.  Playoff hopefull teams in need of a 3B will be interested.

 

I don't see Nolasco having any value.  He's negative value at this point.  He needs to have a successful season.

 

The guy I think that can also be traded this offseason is Milone.  He's still reasonably priced, has shown that he can be a very good back end of the rotation arm.  Not quite sure what we'd get for him, but I think it's safe to say he'll return better than Sam Fuld.  With the rotation where it currently stands, getting rid of Milone gives May  a spot with Duffey (and possibly Berrios) filling the AAA shuttle role for 2016. 

 

My pipe dream would be trading Plouffe for an above average catcher and Milone for a very good reliever. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Plouffe's name gets brought up on here a lot. I think the problem is finding someone who wants him. Same thing with Nolasco. Catcher is of high need, but a young, near mlb ready catching prospect is extremely hard to find. (Or acquire) It seems like at some point the Twins are going to have to make room in the rotation for some young arms. What are some trades that make sense for the Twins this offseason? Names?

Agreed about finding such a catcher, but disagreed about Plouffe's value. Someone will give up value for him, but not clear it will be a catcher or good reliever, where we could benefit the most.

[ScrapTheNickname]

ESPN seems to confirm RJM96's fairly low opinion of Plouffe's value.

 

He currently ranks 15th among MLB thirdbasemen in OPS (a highly-valued commodity among corner infielders) out of 22 players with enough plate appearances to qualify. In WAR he is ranked 16th.

 

Defensively ESPN ranks his dWar as 16th in the league and his Range of Field at 4th best in the league. Fielding percentage 3rd best. (I have no idea how to evaluate the discrepancy between ranking 16th in dWAR but ranking 3rd and fourth in the other categories!)

 

espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/OPS

 

So, while it may appear that Plouffe has become an above-average defender, it is not clear that this is actually so. And his offensive numbers clearly are not the envy  of GMs around the league.

 

Perhaps his trade value will improve if packaged with one or two younger, more gifted players with high upsides.

 

JUST SPECULATING FOR THE FUN OF IT, LAST I LOOKED.

[RJM96]

ESPN seems to confirm RJM96's fairly low opinion of Plouffe's value.

 

He currently ranks 15th among MLB thirdbasemen in OPS (a highly-valued commodity among corner infielders) out of 22 players with enough plate appearances to qualify. In WAR he is ranked 16th.

 

Defensively ESPN ranks his dWar as 16th in the league and his Range of Field at 4th best in the league. Fielding percentage 3rd best. (I have no idea how to evaluate the discrepancy between ranking 16th in dWAR but ranking 3rd and fourth in the other categories!)

 

espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/OPS

 

So, while it may appear that Plouffe has become an above-average defender, it is not clear that this is actually so. And his offensive numbers clearly are not the envy of GMs around the league.

 

Perhaps his trade value will improve if packaged with one or two younger, more gifted players with high upsides.

 

JUST SPECULATING FOR THE FUN OF IT, LAST I LOOKED.

I don't have a low opinion of Plouffe's value. I think he is a very good third baseman. I just think it's going to be hard to find a trade fit for him. That's why I asked the question in the first place. Do you have any trade ideas?

[drjim]

I think he gets more than David Freese got last year, which was a 4th of and very solid of prospect.

 

Obviously Twins won't target ofs, but think of comparable positions. Maybe a good reliever and solid (not elite) catching prospect. Is that enough?

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I don't have a low opinion of Plouffe's value. I think he is a very good third baseman. I just think it's going to be hard to find a trade fit for him. That's why I asked the question in the first place. Do you have any trade ideas?

I read too much into your statement about Plouffe's worth, and I apologize. My response was merely meant to flesh out some statistics about his worth. I'll let others think of who he might be traded for. I personally have no clue.

[jorgenswest]

Since 2012 Milone has performed better than Santana in well over 500 innings with an ERA+ of 100 vs. 94. He is in his prime and Santana in decline. Wouldn't the Twins be better off with Milone in the rotation over Santana?

 

We could look at FIPs from this year also but the ERA estimators converge with ERA around 500 innings. At that sample their difference in ERA+ combined with their difference in age is meaningful. Three to five years are used for projections and Milone should project as the better pitcher.

 

Trading or even shopping Milone doesn't make sense unless the return is significant. If the Twins care about winning, they put the best pitchers in the rotation without consideration to salary.

[DaveW]

Since 2012 Milone has performed better than Santana in well over 500 innings with an ERA+ of 100 vs. 94. He is in his prime and Santana in decline. Wouldn't the Twins be better off with Milone in the rotation over Santana?

 

We could look at FIPs from this year also but the ERA estimators converge with ERA around 500 innings. At that sample their difference in ERA+ combined with their difference in age is meaningful. Three to five years are used for projections and Milone should project as the better pitcher.

 

Trading or even shopping Milone doesn't make sense unless the return is significant. If the Twins care about winning, they put the best pitchers in the rotation without consideration to salary.

Santana and Milone are completely different pitchers, so I don't think it's a real apples to apples comparison.

 

Santana has been maddeningly inconsistent, but when he has been "on" for us, wow. Last two starts 15 IP, 1 R and 21! Strike outs.

 

Milone has been solid, no doubt about it, but doesn't have that sort of ability to get 21k's in 15 innings, does that make sense?

 

Milone is closer to Blackburn (when he was giving us 4.00 ERA) and Santana is sort of a poor mans liriano

[jun]

You won't have too much trouble finding a buyer for Plouffe.  He's an above average 3B (probably right on the border of top 3rd) with service time left and can be extended.  Playoff hopefull teams in need of a 3B will be interested.

 

I don't see Nolasco having any value.  He's negative value at this point.  He needs to have a successful season.

 

The guy I think that can also be traded this offseason is Milone.  He's still reasonably priced, has shown that he can be a very good back end of the rotation arm.  Not quite sure what we'd get for him, but I think it's safe to say he'll return better than Sam Fuld.  With the rotation where it currently stands, getting rid of Milone gives May  a spot with Duffey (and possibly Berrios) filling the AAA shuttle role for 2016. 

 

My pipe dream would be trading Plouffe for an above average catcher and Milone for a very good reliever.

I would not give up Milone. Nolasco and May should serve as a long reliever. Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Duffey should be in the rotation for early next season. Plouffe needs to be traded to make room for young players.

[Mike Sixel]

May as long reliever? Put one of your best pitchers in a role that really only sees time in games that are likely lost? What an awful, awful, use of resources.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

May as long reliever? Put one of your best pitchers in a role that really only sees time in games that are likely lost? What an awful, awful, use of resources.

 

This.  I don't like May in the pen personally, I think he has a reasonable chance of being a very good SP, but if he's going to be in the pen, he should be a late inning guy.  

 

Personally, I'd swap Milone for an elite reliver and move May to the rotation.  I think that accomplishes the best of both worlds. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Santana and Milone are completely different pitchers, so I don't think it's a real apples to apples comparison.

Santana has been maddeningly inconsistent, but when he has been "on" for us, wow. Last two starts 15 IP, 1 R and 21! Strike outs.

Milone has been solid, no doubt about it, but doesn't have that sort of ability to get 21k's in 15 innings, does that make sense?

Milone is closer to Blackburn (when he was giving us 4.00 ERA) and Santana is sort of a poor mans liriano

I am not sure it matters.  Does the guy who allows the least number of runs on average give us the best opportunity to win the most games over the course of a year?  You could make a case that Santana would be preferable in a critical playoff game or perhaps even a playoff series.

[Major League Ready]

 

This.  I don't like May in the pen personally, I think he has a reasonable chance of being a very good SP, but if he's going to be in the pen, he should be a late inning guy.  

 

Personally, I'd swap Milone for an elite reliver and move May to the rotation.  I think that accomplishes the best of both worlds. 

 

This.  I don't like May in the pen personally, I think he has a reasonable chance of being a very good SP, but if he's going to be in the pen, he should be a late inning guy.  

 

Personally, I'd swap Milone for an elite reliver and move May to the rotation.  I think that accomplishes the best of both worlds. 

We have to give May a chance.  He has too much potential as a starter.  I could also see moving Gibson instead of Milone if the return on Gibson was right, like a catcher.

[Comrade Bork]

What if we played Hermann and Fryer enough to make Mauer ASK if he can pretty please go back to playing catcher. Then trade Plouffe fir a good reliever and voila!

[nicksaviking]

 

We have to give May a chance.  He has too much potential as a starter.  I could also see moving Gibson instead of Milone if the return on Gibson was right, like a catcher.

 

Yeah, I'd look to move Gibson and he should have more value than Milone.  He's young and conrolable, which is something the Twins should want, but the Twins are stuck with vets Santana, Hughes and Nolasco, and Gibson's profile as a high floor/low ceiling possible number 3 pitcher with good control but poor strikeouts is very similar to the vets.  Need to make room for the guys with higher ceilings and Gibson would be the easiest to move and would probably bring back the most.

 

Also, if Plouffe's value isn't as high as hoped, I'm all for packaging some minor leaguers, middle infielders and/or Milone with him.  Gibson seems like he might be best packaged individually.

[olivia11]

Cleveland could be one of the teams in the market for a 3rd baseman.  I'm just trying something out here...

 

Twins trade to Indians: 

Trevor Plouffe 3B

Taylor Rodgers LHP

 

Indians trade to Twins: 

Zach McAllister RHRP

Francisco Mejia C (Cleveland's #11 prospect)

Luke Wakamatsu SS (Cleveland's #17 prospect)

 

Why the Twins pull the trigger?

-McAllister could help out right away in the pen. 

-Mejia is a few years away but looks to be an offensive upgrade over Stuart Turner.  If the Twins can get through 2016 with Suzuki and a one year free-agent veteran signing, Mejia could be ready to take over by 2017.  Mejia is also not one of Cleveland's top-10 prospects so it seems more likely they could trade him away.

-Wakamatsu is a good, not elite prospect.  Could provide some depth.  Especially if the Twins trade away Polanco this offseason.  And also if Gordon doesn't develop as quickly as the Twins hope.  Could also be a solid utility infield option.

-The twins do not lose any of their top 10 prospects.

 

Why the Indians pull the trigger?

-Their current third baseman, Urshella is struggling (hitting just .225 with a .600 ops), the Indians could look to upgrade at this position and Plouffe would undoubtedly be an upgrade over Urshella.

-Taylor Rodgers looks to be an MLB ready arm that could help in Cleveland's rotation. 

-The Indians have a lot of solid shortstop prospects in their system (4 ranked in top 30) and with Francisco Lindor taking over the job - presumably - long term, they can afford to trade away of some of their prospects here.

-They do not lose any of their top 10 prospects.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We have to give May a chance.  He has too much potential as a starter.  I could also see moving Gibson instead of Milone if the return on Gibson was right, like a catcher.

 

I'd be OK with this too, though I'd note that his K/9 has risen this season by nearly a full strike out (and that's even more impressive given how bad it was at the beginning of the year).  He's 27 and still getting better.  I could see him posting a season closer to his minor league career numbers over the next couple of seasons (which would be a 2/3 type guy).  For the right deal, I'd move him, but I think I'd want more than what I'd want for Milone. 

[RJM96]

Cleveland could be one of the teams in the market for a 3rd baseman. I'm just trying something out here...

 

Twins trade to Indians:

Trevor Plouffe 3B

Taylor Rodgers LHP

 

Indians trade to Twins:

Zach McAllister RHRP

Francisco Mejia C (Cleveland's #11 prospect)

Luke Wakamatsu SS (Cleveland's #17 prospect)

 

Why the Twins pull the trigger?

-McAllister could help out right away in the pen.

-Mejia is a few years away but looks to be an offensive upgrade over Stuart Turner. If the Twins can get through 2016 with Suzuki and a one year free-agent veteran signing, Mejia could be ready to take over by 2017. Mejia is also not one of Cleveland's top-10 prospects so it seems more likely they could trade him away.

-Wakamatsu is a good, not elite prospect. Could provide some depth. Especially if the Twins trade away Polanco this offseason. And also if Gordon doesn't develop as quickly as the Twins hope. Could also be a solid utility infield option.

-The twins do not lose any of their top 10 prospects.

 

Why the Indians pull the trigger?

-Their current third baseman, Urshella is struggling (hitting just .225 with a .600 ops), the Indians could look to upgrade at this position and Plouffe would undoubtedly be an upgrade over Urshella.

-Taylor Rodgers looks to be an MLB ready arm that could help in Cleveland's rotation.

-The Indians have a lot of solid shortstop prospects in their system (4 ranked in top 30) and with Francisco Lindor taking over the job - presumably - long term, they can afford to trade away of some of their prospects here.

-They do not lose any of their top 10 prospects.

Interesting idea, but I feel like the Twins could do a lot better in a Plouffe trade than that. I'd prefer Turner over Meija in that he is two years ahead of him amd has relatively the same ceiling.

[RJM96]

I like Polanco and Arcia for Plawecki, now what to do with Plouffe.....