Berardino article: Twins embrace geek squad

[Steven Buhr]

I thought sure when I come to the Forum section today there would already be a long thread concerning Mike Berardino's piece this morning, "Twins take page from visiting Pirates, embrace geek squad," but unless I'm just missing it, I don't see anything.

 

It doesn't seem to be a matter of everyone jumping feet first in to the deep end of the pool, but it does sound from the article as though the Twins are finally moving a bit more swiftly in the right direction.

 

Glad to see it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nice article. One curious omission is all that talk about specific pitching approaches and not one reference to Kurt Suzuki calling those pitches (though he does earn a nice footnote about pitch-framing).

[drjim]

The Twins were obviously, embarrassingly late to the party involving statistical analysis, but I have always figured they were at worst middle of the pack over the past couple of seasons. They just don't advertise as much as some organizations. Good for them for getting some information out.

 

I do think there have earned their skepticism (if not outright hostility) on this. And lots of work still to do.

[jimmer]

whether it's true or not, I heard on MLB Network or ESPN. Some supposedly reliable places that before Friendman came to LA and brought a ton of executive talent with him, there was one guy doing what Jack Goin does for the Twins.  One guy in the department.

[drjim]

 

whether it's true or not, I heard on MLB Network or ESPN. Some supposedly reliable places that before Friendman came to LA and brought a ton of executive talent with him, there was one guy doing what Jack Goin does for the Twins.  One guy in the department.

 

I think people would be shocked if they knew the staffing of all front offices.

 

We (rightly) focus on the top 5-6 teams and compare them, and the Twins clearly aren't in their league, but there is a whole big group of franchises that have a handful of guys at most.

 

I also remember Ryan saying something to the effect that scouts have to do some of the advanced analysis themselves (or presumedly executives in the scouting department). It can be hard to compare personnel directly because organizations do split the labor differently.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins were obviously, embarrassingly late to the party involving statistical analysis, but I have always figured they were at worst middle of the pack over the past couple of seasons. They just don't advertise as much as some organizations. Good for them for getting some information out.

I'd say they were middle of the pack at best until now.  It's not a matter of advertising, it's just the facts we know of how it started and who is staffing it.

 

Now, I suspect, things are evening out a lot.  Shifting, PitchF/X, and pitch framing are so ubiquitous now, nobody can get a huge advantage out of any of them.  And Statcast is basically a league-driven thing.

 

So the Twins are probably middle of the pack now, and bunched together in a pretty large pack.  I don't see them separating from that pack though (not up but fortunately not down either).

[Otto von Ballpark]

From the article:

 

Bench coach Joe Vavra, who inherited catching instructor duties this winter after Terry Steinbach wasn't retained, spent numerous sessions with starting catcher Kurt Suzuki and backups Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer.

Interesting omission of Josmil Pinto...?  If it was over the winter, I guess it would have been while he was in winter ball, but given the state of our catching corps, I think I would have paid Josmil handsomely to stay home and join this program.

[Seth Stohs]

I think the Twins have used statistical analysis and even advanced statistical analysis for at least several years. I think they really enjoy playing that down and making people think they don't know what stuff means or how to use it. 

[Mike Sixel]

Both encouraging and depressing at the same time. But, the trend is the right way, that's the key.

[drjim]

 

I'd say they were middle of the pack at best until now.  It's not a matter of advertising, it's just the facts we know of how it started and who is staffing it.

 

Now, I suspect, things are evening out a lot.  Shifting, PitchF/X, and pitch framing are so ubiquitous now, nobody can get a huge advantage out of any of them.  And Statcast is basically a league-driven thing.

 

So the Twins are probably middle of the pack now, and bunched together in a pretty large pack.  I don't see them separating from that pack though (not up but fortunately not down either).

 

I overstated my point. I think there are a handful of teams up top, a big bunch in the middle (with the Twins) that are bunched together, and a couple of stragglers that the Twins are mercifully no longer a part of.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I overstated my point. I think there are a handful of teams up top, a big bunch in the middle (with the Twins) that are bunched together, and a couple of stragglers that the Twins are mercifully no longer a part of.

That's fair.

[Jham]

 

I think the Twins have used statistical analysis and even advanced statistical analysis for at least several years. I think they really enjoy playing that down and making people think they don't know what stuff means or how to use it. 

 

The whole theory behind money ball is keying in on traits and trends that other teams (large market teams) miss.  New stats keep being created and old stats tweaked in order to find more accurate or more consistent performance evaluators/predictors.  If a team has more accurate metrics that give them an advantage in player evaluation, they would be fools to share it with their competition.  I would think then, that the best organizations measured by new metrics might not be ranked the same under future metrics, just as traditional stats and current metrics aren't always the same.  But then we'd need a sabremetric to evaluate the sabremetricians...  "GM-WAR"?  I'll see if the trademark's available..

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Twins have used statistical analysis and even advanced statistical analysis for at least several years. I think they really enjoy playing that down and making people think they don't know what stuff means or how to use it. 

No doubt they have used some stuff the past couple years.

 

But I really doubt they are "playing possum" Seth.  That would mean basically nothing to other front offices, and it would just antagonize fans.  Why would they do that?

 

Obviously no one is divulging secrets, but I think they've been pretty forthright in how they've viewed/applied advanced stats, both for good and for bad (fortunately much more good recently!).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

whether it's true or not, I heard on MLB Network or ESPN. Some supposedly reliable places that before Friendman came to LA and brought a ton of executive talent with him, there was one guy doing what Jack Goin does for the Twins.  One guy in the department.

To be fair, LA's ownership and front office were a mess until recently, and they were kind of a standout among big markets in that regard.

 

I think Goin was basically a one-man show until November 2013 too (coincidentally around the same time Molitor was brought to the MLB staff?).

[notoriousgod71]

I enjoyed Antony's offseason discussion of our analytics "team".

 

"Our stats guy showed that Brian Dozier was one of only four second baseman with 30 doubles and 20 home runs and SB in the same season since (insert year)."

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

I don't think there is any question the Twins have come a long way in the analytics side of the game. This was Rob Antony in 2010:

 

TC: Is that the way baseball organizations are moving in general?

I think so. This is such a competitive game and everybody is looking for that edge. We’re probably one of the last, if not the last, team to address it with a person dedicated solely to that.

 

 

TC: What took so long getting to this point of just now bringing someone on staff?

I’m not sure we bought into the stuff and we had always been so traditional. Terry Ryan was a scouting director, he was our General Manager. Mike Radcliff, Director of Player Personnel, he was a scouting director. We’ve always been really scout-oriented, people-oriented. We just have more conviction and belief in that. I think everyone has come to the realization that you cannot turn a blind-eye to that information. It is another piece of the puzzle that might give you a better informed decision.

 

 

[jimmer]

What concerns me is that someone like TR will look at advanced metrics and listen to them only when they agree with what he already thinks.  If not, then discard them as inaccurate.  If you're using it like that, you might as well not be using it at all.  Understand that doesn't mean everything done should always agree with the advanced metrics either and discard a well thought of scout's opinion that differs.

[Willihammer]

 

I enjoyed Antony's offseason discussion of our analytics "team".

 

"Our stats guy showed that Brian Dozier was one of only four second baseman with 30 doubles and 20 home runs and SB in the same season since (insert year)."

"Our stats guy ran a BB-Ref play index search on his $36/year personal subscription."

[Willihammer]

Kid aside, that was an encouraging read. Perkins sounds like a really great conduit for this stuff.

[drjim]

 

What concerns me is that someone like TR will look at advanced metrics and listen to them only when they agree with what he already thinks.  If not, then discard them as inaccurate.  If you're using it like that, you might as well not be using it at all.  Understand that doesn't mean everything done should always agree with the advanced metrics either and discard a well thought of scout's opinion that differs.

 

Out of curiosity, what are you basing this opinion of Ryan on?

[jimmer]

I accidentally worded it wrong, I meant IF TR did that, or really any GM, then it would be pointless to even look at the metrics.

 

I apologize for making it seem I knew for sure TR would do that. I used TR cause he's our guy and it would concern me most if he did that.

 

But if we are looking for examples,  couple examples might be Hunter and Correia.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Out of curiosity, what are you basing this opinion of Ryan on?

I can't speak for jimmer, but it seems the Twins advanced stats focus has been much more on game strategy rather than player procurement.  It feels like TR is still flying by his own rules in that department, just with a bigger payroll.

 

Not sure how much of that is TR, or how much of that is our nascent stats department still trying to get a handle on analyzing our own players, much less players around the league.

[jimmer]

 

I can't speak for jimmer, but it seems the Twins advanced stats focus has been much more on game strategy rather than player procurement.  It feels like TR is still flying by his own rules in that department, just with a bigger payroll.

 

Not sure how much of that is TR, or how much of that is our nascent stats department still trying to get a handle on analyzing our own players, much less players around the league.

That is how it seems for sure, but I worded my post wrong.  Since I don't know for sure he does that all the time, I don't want people to think I pretend to know he does that all the time. Poorly worded, hopefully I fixed that in my followup post statisfactorily (yes, I spelled that wrong, on purpose).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I accidentally worded it wrong, I meant IF TR did that, or really any GM, then it would be pointless to even look at the metrics.

 

I apologize for making it seem I knew for sure TR would do that. I used TR cause he's our guy and it would concern me most if he did that.

 

But if we are looking for examples,  couple examples might be Hunter and Correia.

I understand being hesitant about how much the Twins use sabremetrics due to their historically conservative approach to the game but I don't think there's much to worry about here.

 

Jack Goin was promoted to head the stats department in May of 2011.

 

Ryan returned to the GM's chair in November of 2011.

 

In early 2013, the Twins had expanded their stats department to include two more people under Goin.

 

That winter, the Twins signed two sabr-friendly pitchers, Nolasco and Hughes. Obviously, the results were... mixed.

 

It seems unlikely Ryan would go through the effort to expand the department only to ignore the people in it, especially given the Nolasco (classic xFIP underperformer) and Hughes (Yankee Stadium whipping boy) signings shortly thereafter.

[Parker Hageman]

We all know that Jack is a regular here so maybe he'll jump in and enlighten us on the process. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In early 2013, the Twins had expanded their stats department to include two more people under Goin.

 

That winter, the Twins signed two sabr-friendly pitchers, Nolasco and Hughes.

According to this article, the other two guys in the stats department were hired full-time around November 2013, which is exactly when Nolasco and Hughes were signing.

 

And if the stats department was pushing TR to sign pitchers based on FIP, they should have explained the outfield defense part of that equation before 2014 too.  

 

You could also make the argument that the pitchers most willing to sign quickly and reasonably that winter were the ones who most recently underperformed peripherals/expectations (certainly fits Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey).  We didn't necessarily have to target them due to FIP or whatever.   (The later offers to Garza and E. Santana seem to support this interpretation too -- we just really needed to sign some pitchers!)

[drjim]

 

I accidentally worded it wrong, I meant IF TR did that, or really any GM, then it would be pointless to even look at the metrics.

 

I apologize for making it seem I knew for sure TR would do that. I used TR cause he's our guy and it would concern me most if he did that.

 

But if we are looking for examples,  couple examples might be Hunter and Correia.

 

I would certainly agree with the first sentence. It would be really disappointing if they are just playing lip service. Ryan just has never struck me as the type to do that. He is certainly conservative and methodical, but that is different than stubborn and dismissive.

 

And this is off topic - but Correia was in my mind a perfect storm of Twins desperation and the worst free agent market of the decade. The Pelfrey re-signing is what has given me the most pause of all his free agent moves.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not that I am saying TR ignores the stats department in player procurement, but there's not a whole lot of evidence either way yet.

[Brock Beauchamp]

According to this article, the other two guys in the stats department were hired full-time around November 2013, which is exactly when Nolasco and Hughes were signing.

 

And if the stats department was pushing TR to sign pitchers based on FIP, they should have explained the outfield defense part of that equation before 2014 too.

 

You could also make the argument that the pitchers most willing to sign quickly and reasonably that winter were the ones who most recently underperformed peripherals/expectations (certainly fits Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey). We didn't necessarily have to target them due to FIP or whatever. (The later offers to Garza and E. Santana seem to support this interpretation too -- we just really needed to sign some pitchers!)

Somehow I read that article and saw "May of 2013", not "November".

 

*shrugs*

 

As for the 2014 outfield defense, one can't turn around the Titanic in five seconds.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also the place to look for stats influence is not major free agents, the pool is too small. There should be more evidence in the smaller, marginal acquisitions, like Boyer, Stauffer, Robinson, etc.