Royals Acquire Johnny Cueto

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"Exactly the wrong times" would be like August 1st or September 1st.

 

Actually Liriano is pretty close in that regard -- on August 1st, 2006, he got scratched from his next start before pretty quickly going down for the year.  But our rotation depth was already very shaky, and Liriano was on pace for ~210 innings in his first MLB season (despite spending a month and a half in the bullpen!), and Radke's shoulder was shredded by that point too.  No way we should have sold Lohse on July 31st, at least not without a corresponding SP addition.

 

We had plenty of time to react to Morneau's absence in 2010 but chose not to.

Eh, I don't know if "plenty of time" is the correct way to phrase it. If I recall correctly - and I'm working from hazy memories here so correct me if I'm wrong - Morneau was expected to come back from his injury pretty quickly.

 

Obviously, that didn't happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not true. He traded for Stewart and he provided the leadoff hitter they had been searching for. He also traded for Castillo, and he was solid at 2b for a few years. While Castillo didn't cost much, Kielty was well thought of for his power potential. 

Read my post again -- I said he never traded a prospect midseason.  Stewart, Reed, and Jones were not traded for prospects.  Castillo was not acquired midseason.  (Actually Castillo was traded AWAY for prospects at his second trade deadline with the Twins.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I won't defend the Lohse dump, but for both of those Morneau injuries (especially the concussion) there is no way they could have predicted he would be out for the year. To criticize them for that is the worst kind of hindsight - especially since in 2010 they didn't have a hole in the lineup.

 

 

Eh, I don't know if "plenty of time" is the correct way to phrase it. If I recall correctly - and I'm working from hazy memories here so correct me if I'm wrong - Morneau was expected to come back from his injury pretty quickly.

 

Obviously, that didn't happen.

 

So it was perfectly reasonable to expect a player to return from a concussion in a couple weeks?  Even in 2010, that's a pretty shaky argument.

 

And we didn't even plan for any other contingency.

 

The 2010 lineup situation was better than 2009, but only due to can't-DH-everyday Thome and the mirage that was Delmon Young.  We absolutely should have prioritized another bat option over a "proven closer".

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Funny, they started trading more prospects as they got closer to Target Field.

So we'll see TR deal some prospects this year?  Great, looking forward to it.

 

I think the effects of Target Field in this arena are pretty minor.  The stadium allowed us to give a mondo extension to Mauer, and sign a few mid-tier veteran FA.  Shouldn't really have affected a deadline rental, relatively low draft/international bonuses, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So it was perfectly reasonable to expect a player to return from a concussion in a couple weeks?  Even in 2010, that's a pretty shaky argument.

 

And we didn't even plan for any other contingency.

 

The 2010 lineup situation was better than 2009, but only due to can't-DH-everyday Thome and the mirage that was Delmon Young.  We absolutely should have prioritized another bat option over a "proven closer".

I won't argue that point. No matter how you view the situation and the team's needs, Capps/Ramos was a joke and the vast majority of us called it at the time.

[DaveW]

2009, WC round, game 1 at NYY

 

7. Brendan Harris DH

8. Matt Tolbert 3B

9. Nick Punto 2B

SP Brian Duesning

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

When people say, "We should be conservative at the deadline this year because we're not that good", it bothers me because we've heard before (and will probably hear again) from the team that "we are being conservative because we're already good enough."

 

Basically, the way this front office has operated, there is always a justification for conservatism.  There's never going to be a "right" time to them to be aggressive at the deadline, or bid on an elite FA.

[Kwak]

 

Not true. He traded for Stewart and he provided the leadoff hitter they had been searching for. He also traded for Castillo, and he was solid at 2b for a few years. While Castillo didn't cost much, Kielty was well thought of for his power potential. 

Wasn't Kielty the player with the "Anne Hutchinson" story?  IIRC, he wasn't just traded  to "get a leadoff hitter".

[SwainZag]

 

2009, WC round, game 1 at NYY

 

7. Brendan Harris DH

8. Matt Tolbert 3B

9. Nick Punto 2B

SP Brian Duesning

 

Let's be realistic here, the 2009 Twins shouldn't have made the playoffs.  They were 1 game over .500 at the deadline and needed a 17-4 run to end the season AND an epic collapse by Detroit to sneak in.  Duensing started because Baker had to pitch 163 just to give them a chance to get in.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When people say, "We should be conservative at the deadline this year because we're not that good", it bothers me because we've heard before (and will probably hear again) from the team that "we are being conservative because we're already good enough."

 

Basically, the way this front office has operated, there is always a justification for conservatism.  There's never going to be a "right" time to them to be aggressive at the deadline, or bid on an elite FA.

To me, I don't mind if they're aggressive this deadline. I'd applaud it if done correctly, actually.

 

But I don't want expensive rentals and I don't want Hamels. That's not aggression, that's foolishness given the makeup of this team.

 

If the Twins acquire Tulo or Lucroy, good on them. They're laying the foundation for a stronger 2015, 2016, 2017 by acquiring very good players at positions of weakness. I applaud that and it's definitely "aggressive".

 

I'd prefer to see the team try to trade-and-sign Wieters at a much lower cost but given that he's a Boras client, that's a tough sell.

[jimmer]

 

When people say, "We should be conservative at the deadline this year because we're not that good", it bothers me because we've heard before (and will probably hear again) from the team that "we are being conservative because we're already good enough."

 

Basically, the way this front office has operated, there is always a justification for conservatism.  There's never going to be a "right" time to them to be aggressive at the deadline, or bid on an elite FA.

I came to this thread to say exactly the same .

[SwainZag]

 

When people say, "We should be conservative at the deadline this year because we're not that good", it bothers me because we've heard before (and will probably hear again) from the team that "we are being conservative because we're already good enough."

 

Basically, the way this front office has operated, there is always a justification for conservatism.  There's never going to be a "right" time to them to be aggressive at the deadline, or bid on an elite FA.

 

And at he same time the people who think the Twins should be aggressive at the deadline, say it every single year, winning or losing, and when they aren't aggressive they call the front office lazy, incompetent and foolish.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And at he same time the people who think the Twins should be aggressive at the deadline, say it every single year, winning or losing, and when they aren't aggressive they call the front office lazy, incompetent and foolish.

I don't recall anyone saying we should be aggressive at the deadline the past 4 seasons.  At least, not aggressive buyers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wasn't Kielty the player with the "Anne Hutchinson" story?  IIRC, he wasn't just traded  to "get a leadoff hitter".

I had no idea what this meant, but found this nugget:

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20020921122954/http://www.startribune.com/stories/464/3240629.html

 

and

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20050413003729/http://www.startribune.com/stories/389/3328091.html

 

Have no idea about Kielty's part, and the trade didn't happen until midway through the following season.

[drjim]

 

So we'll see TR deal some prospects this year?  Great, looking forward to it.

 

I think the effects of Target Field in this arena are pretty minor.  The stadium allowed us to give a mondo extension to Mauer, and sign a few mid-tier veteran FA.  Shouldn't really have affected a deadline rental, relatively low draft/international bonuses, etc.

 

I look forward to it too.

 

But I do not look forward to a Cueto type trade because I wouldn't approve.

[drjim]

 

When people say, "We should be conservative at the deadline this year because we're not that good", it bothers me because we've heard before (and will probably hear again) from the team that "we are being conservative because we're already good enough."

 

Basically, the way this front office has operated, there is always a justification for conservatism.  There's never going to be a "right" time to them to be aggressive at the deadline, or bid on an elite FA.

 

Isn't there a balance between your definition of conservatism and trading their best prospects for a rental?

 

This, like many things, is probably people talking past each other.

 

And biding on elite FAs will almost never happen for revenue reasons, or if they actually get someone like Santana there will be a shifting of the goalposts of what actually defines "elite."

[drjim]

I am quite confident that no matter what they do everyone will be complaining. Should be a fun deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Isn't there a balance between your definition of conservatism and trading their best prospects for a rental?

 

This, like many things, is probably people talking past each other.

 

And biding on elite FAs will almost never happen for revenue reasons, or if they actually get someone like Santana there will be a shifting of the goalposts of what actually defines "elite."

 

Isn't there a balance between never trading real prospects for rentals, and trading some?

[tobi0040]

When I look around the division, I see a huge opening for the Twins as early as next year.  The Royals have quietly gotten older than I ever realized.  Duffy and Ventura have been shaky and Perez aside, almost the rest of their core are over 30.  Vargas is out 1.5 years.  Cueto is a rental. 

 

So as far as I am concerned, I don't want to give up anyone in our top 10 for a two month player. If we can address SS, catcher, or the pen for a period of time at least thru next year I would be open.  But we are 7.5 back of the Royals, who are better than us right now and added Cueto.  The Astros have three more wins and added Kazmir.  

 

Not the time to go all in.

[USAFChief]

When people say, "We should be conservative at the deadline this year because we're not that good", it bothers me because we've heard before (and will probably hear again) from the team that "we are being conservative because we're already good enough."

 

Basically, the way this front office has operated, there is always a justification for conservatism. There's never going to be a "right" time to them to be aggressive at the deadline, or bid on an elite FA.

Concur.

 

I would add that I have never agreed with the philosophy of "we have too many holes to fill any of them. "

 

If you have three holes, and fill one, now you have two. That's better than three.

[jimmer]

Indians are playing way under their abilities, Tigers are sliding for sure, and I expected some sliding this year, but I'm not counting them out for the next couple year.  I figured the White Sox would stink and they do.  I don't think our window for next year is huge at all because we have lots of concerns ourselves.  We can't assume everything goes right for us and everyone else drops off.  KCs window is going to last at least a couple more seasons and our rebuild is still a bit aways (and that's before all the adjustment times happen, like most players need).

[70charger]

 

I am quite confident that no matter what they do everyone will be complaining. Should be a fun deadline.

 

I completely disagree. I reject your premise, and I am positive that there are stats to back this up, probably, somewhere, maybe. In any case, you're wrong. Clearly.

[jimmer]

 

I am quite confident that no matter what they do everyone will be complaining. Should be a fun deadline.

well, everyone except those who defend everything the Twins management does or doesn't do.  Those guys won't be complaining.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But I do not look forward to a Cueto type trade because I wouldn't approve.

Would you have not approved a Twins trade for Cliff Lee in 2009-2010 either?  Obviously, that to me was the perfect apex of need and availability (Cliff Lee, Yankee Killer), and in our defense, we tried to get something done (although Lee was traded 3 times in those two years, so I tend to think we simply didn't try hard or early enough).

 

But I think there are less than perfect rental deals that I would approve too.  Cueto to the Royals is one.  He is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and you don't get your hands on those kinds of pitchers unless you are lucky enough to develop one, or you fork over $150+ mil.  In that light, the Royals really didn't give up that much.

 

Not sure if 2015 offers any such rental opportunities for the Twins (although Tulo and Hamels could provide rental benefits as well), but I tend to think the years 2001-2010 should have yielded something in this regard.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And biding on elite FAs will almost never happen for revenue reasons, or if they actually get someone like Santana there will be a shifting of the goalposts of what actually defines "elite."

Someone like Ervin Santana?  Are you arguing Ervin Santana has ever been considered "elite" by anyone?

[beckmt]

Cueto is the KC "all in" move and with the chance they have it looks right for them. Price was hign, but ace types do not come all that often and he is their first option for an ace. It will probably hurt KC 2-3 years down the road, but you only get so many chances to win the big one, and with their core hitting FA in 2-3 years the time is now.

[tobi0040]

 

Cueto is the KC "all in" move and with the chance they have it looks right for them. Price was hign, but ace types do not come all that often and he is their first option for an ace. It will probably hurt KC 2-3 years down the road, but you only get so many chances to win the big one, and with their core hitting FA in 2-3 years the time is now.

 

I agree. They  have  jacks  and twos and went all in.  We have a pair of 9's. We will have a better hand the next 1-2 years.

 

They owe it to their fans as well.  Prior to last year it has been a real long time.  The ASG voting was insane.  This year they have averaged an additional 6,000 fans per game than we have.

 

That is in a smaller market as well.

http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets

 

[jimmer]

 

I agree. They have  jacks and twos and went all in.  We have a pair of 9's. We will have a better hand the next 1-2 years.

and if not in 1-2 year, then 3-4 years...

[drjim]

 

Would you have not approved a Twins trade for Cliff Lee in 2009-2010 either?  Obviously, that to me was the perfect apex of need and availability (Cliff Lee, Yankee Killer), and in our defense, we tried to get something done (although Lee was traded 3 times in those two years, so I tend to think we simply didn't try hard or early enough).

 

But I think there are less than perfect rental deals that I would approve too.  Cueto to the Royals is one.  He is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and you don't get your hands on those kinds of pitchers unless you are lucky enough to develop one, or you fork over $150+ mil.  In that light, the Royals really didn't give up that much.

 

Not sure if 2015 offers any such rental opportunities for the Twins (although Tulo and Hamels could provide rental benefits as well), but I tend to think the years 2001-2010 should have yielded something in this regard.

 

Absolutely would have approved of a Cliff Lee trade in 2010.

[drjim]

 

Someone like Ervin Santana?  Are you arguing Ervin Santana has ever been considered "elite" by anyone?

 Top 3-4 starter available last offseason.

 

Are you implying the Twins fail because they haven't outbid the absolute top teams for free agents. Unrealistic.