Kazmir for two guys in A+ ball

[Mike Sixel]

Looks like the A's are punting....and got two guys in A ball. Surprised he took two guys that far from the majors, really.

[Mike Sixel]

Here is what Eno just said:

Eno Sarris

Guys in A-Ball have a secret value for Beane, IMO. Never going to play for Oakland. Pump value, sell for veterans.

[drjim]

Good trade for Houston.

[Winston Smith]

Sure like to see Terry try hard to get Vogt from the A's.

[nicksaviking]

So, every other season this century the Twins could have used a decent starter upgrade but it would have cost a ton. The year they don't....

[ttreadway]

Well, they seem likely to go for whatever someone throws out there, so lets throw out 2 or 3 Hu/Jones/Wheeler/Melatokis level prospects plus one Thorpe/Gonsalves/Harrison level prospect for Phegley and Clippard. That would give us some depth at catcher, and while he may not be a solid future starting catcher, he could get us by for a while and hit better than Fryer or Herrman. And Clippard gives us at least one guy we can rely on outside of Perkins. Worth at least throwing out there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The A's are punting this season, but I wouldn't take this as a sign of a fire sale on Zobrist, Vogt, Phegley, etc.  Kazmir was on an expiring contract, and it's possible the A's weren't comfortable extending him a qualifying offer.

 

I'd expect Clippard to get dealt too, but that might be about it for now.

[Willihammer]

Mengden was the preseason # 22 Houston prospect. Nottingham didn't crack the top 30. Both slot into the A's system as # 13 and #5 respectively.

[Willihammer]

I know its not apples to apples, but as a rough comparison, the Twins #5 and 13 prospects on mlb.com are Gordon and Turner.

[jimmer]

 

So, every other season this century the Twins could have used a decent starter upgrade but it would have cost a ton. The year they don't....

They could still use a decent start upgrade. Kazmir is better than any starter on our team.

[Vanimal46]

Well, the bar is set for now for rentals. The next week will be interesting to see what other dominos fall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So, every other season this century the Twins could have used a decent starter upgrade but it would have cost a ton. The year they don't....

While I agree to an extent, Kazmir is scary in a not-good way. His home stats are unbelievable in O.co but pedestrian on the road.

 

Still, at that price, Houston probably spent roughly 1.2 seconds mulling over the deal before saying yes.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW likes the two players, and Kazmir is an injury risk......so not totally lopsided.

[Kwak]

 

KLAW likes the two players, and Kazmir is an injury risk......so not totally lopsided.

Everybody is an injury risk, But Kazmir's is only for 10 weeks + playoffs--quite small.  I really like how HOU realized that they are a post-season team this year and will make deal(s) to improve their team.  Time to see if the Twins are actually serious about winning big--or just content to play meaningful baseball games in September.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The catcher would immediately be the best catcher in our system.

[jimmer]

 

KLAW likes the two players, and Kazmir is an injury risk......so not totally lopsided.

'Today, the Houston Astros officially decided to go for it, acquiring Scott Kazmir from the A’s in exchange for for A-Ball prospects RHP Daniel Mengden and C Jacob Nottingham. Both were late cuts from my preseason prospect list list, which by Opening Day, with the Evan Gattis trade and losing Delino DeShields in the Rule 5 draft, included 22 players.

Both players were among the group of six given 35+ FV grades, so they were both in the 23-28 range in Houston’s system entering the year.....given Nottingham’s breakout season, they did indeed land a guy who would have ranked in the Astros top 10 if the list was re-done today.'-Kiley from Fangraphs

[Brock Beauchamp]

I had to look up Kazmir's splits again because they're pretty funny:

 

Opposing hitters:

 

Home: .167 .243 .198 .441

Road: .274 .328 .476 .804

 

Crikey!

 

I think it's a good pick-up for Houston but they obviously negotiated Beane down because those splits are terrifying, especially when his home park turns from O.co to Minute Maid (Kazmir 0 HR allowed at O.co, 7 HR allowed on the road).

[Otto von Ballpark]

The catcher also apparently cracked Sickels mid season top 75. I'd say that's a good get for a non-elite rental, who may not even deserve a qualifying offer.

[Linus]

With the new rules (can't extend the qualifying offer) the whole rental market has really changed.  There are no other value considerations anymore - strictly what you want to give up for two months of somebody's services.  Because of that, I'm not so sure the As didn't do OK.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With the new rules (can't extend the qualifying offer) the whole rental market has really changed.  There are no other value considerations anymore - strictly what you want to give up for two months of somebody's services.  Because of that, I'm not so sure the As didn't do OK.

I don't think the A's did that badly, I'm just surprised Beane didn't want one guy closer to the majors.

 

But hey, it's Beane. God only knows what scheme he's devising next.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think a rental trade, where the value is already limited, is a time where you have to take best player available, and not be choosy about level or position.

 

Beane's major trades, he gets back multiple pieces, so he can insist on a few MLB ready pieces (usually a MLB regular in the group). This trade, he is probably not even getting the equivalent of one piece. Insist on closer to MLB and you wind up with a bench or AAAA player who takes up a 40 man spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The catcher alone would look pretty good if he was the QO comp pick next June, and he could be in AA by then anyway. Good get.

 

(Maybe this is Beane effectively cashing in that comp pick for a player closer to MLB?)

[Willihammer]

I'd say Beane did well for 3 reasons. 1. They look like solid prospects. 2. They're coming straight out of a division rival's system, 3. won't crunch the roster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I had to look up Kazmir's splits again because they're pretty funny:

 

Opposing hitters:

 

Home: .167 .243 .198 .441

Road: .274 .328 .476 .804

 

Crikey!

 

I think it's a good pick-up for Houston but they obviously negotiated Beane down because those splits are terrifying, especially when his home park turns from O.co to Minute Maid (Kazmir 0 HR allowed at O.co, 7 HR allowed on the road).

No doubt, Oakland favors pitchers.

 

But to be fair, his 2015 season to date is already a small sample, and you're looking at even smaller sub-samples of that.  Simply due to scheduling, he's only had one road start the past 5 weeks, for example, and he was removed after 50 pitches due to injury in that one despite pitching well at the time.

 

He's faced the Twins twice: once in May in Target Field, and then again in July in Oakland.  Are we really sure the ballpark had that much to do with his relative success in those two outings?  The Target Field start in May was arguably his worst of the season, and by itself accounts for over a third of his 2015 home-road ERA difference.

 

Last year, Kazmir was actually BETTER on the road in terms of runs allowed and opponents OPS, and only mildly better at home run suppression in Oakland.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No doubt, Oakland favors pitchers.

 

But to be fair, his 2015 season to date is already a small sample, and you're looking at even smaller sub-samples of that.  Simply due to scheduling, he's only had one road start the past 5 weeks, for example, and he was removed after 50 pitches due to injury in that one despite pitching well at the time.

 

He's faced the Twins twice: once in May in Target Field, and then again in July in Oakland.  Are we really sure the ballpark had that much to do with his relative success in those two outings?  The Target Field start in May was arguably his worst of the season, and by itself accounts for over a third of his 2015 home-road ERA difference.

 

Last year, Kazmir was actually BETTER on the road in terms of runs allowed and opponents OPS, and only mildly better at home run suppression in Oakland.

Oh, I definitely realize SSS applies here but were I the Houston GM, I would have leveraged that number to drive down the price. After seeing what they gave up for Kazmir, I think it's likely Houston did just that.

 

In no way am I questioning the Kazmir deal. At that price, that's a no-brainer decision for a team in contention. You roll the dice on Scott in that situation every time, even if your home park is Minute Maid.

[jimmer]

 

Oh, I definitely realize SSS applies here but were I the Houston GM, I would have leveraged that number to drive down the price. After seeing what they gave up for Kazmir, I think it's likely Houston did just that.

 

In no way am I questioning the Kazmir deal. At that price, that's a no-brainer decision for a team in contention. You roll the dice on Scott in that situation every time, even if your home park is Minute Maid.

Has Minute Maid park been a traditionally heavily hitter friendly park?  This year maybe, but it's not like Texas or Coors or Philly, right?  Or am I wrong on that?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Has Minute Maid park been a traditionally heavily hitter friendly park?  This year maybe, but it's not like Texas or Coors or Philly, right?  Or am I wrong on that?

I haven't looked up its adjusted numbers in years but it used to be referred to as "the Juice Box". IIRC, it's about 75 ft down the left field line.

 

But, again, I haven't looked up its numbers in years. Ballpark adjustments are such a tricky thing to evaluate, as it's hard to compensate for one team playing 100% of its innings on either defense or offense.

[jimmer]

 

I haven't looked up its adjusted numbers in years but it used to be referred to as "the Juice Box". IIRC, it's about 75 ft down the left field line.

 

But, again, I haven't looked up its numbers in years.

Here's I thought they called it the juice box because it's Minute Maid park and Minute Maid makes juice :-)

 

Left Field is short, but RF is the more or less the same as ours and CF is 436 along with LF-Center and RF-Center areas being pretty deep.

 

And he's had success other places.  

 

We'll see.  The splits this year are mildly worrisome.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here's I thought they called it the juice box because it's Minute Maid park and Minute Maid makes juice :-)

Well, yeah, heh. But it got its name from the ease that one could send a ball out of the park (or at least out of left field).

 

Of course, when that nickname was given, the Astros had roughly 17 hitters on their roster who could send the ball out of the park 40 times a season.

[tobi0040]

I think it probably goes with Terry’s logic before the Span trade.  The closer prospects get to the majors the less willing teams are to trade them.  So you can get high ceiling guys in A ball, but not as easily in AA or AAA. 

 

Beane also seems to really target starters, middle infielders, and in this case a catcher.  Which are in need positions.  I like it for them.  At #75, he is basically the same place that Susac was, who most agree would be really hard to pry from SF.