Kazmir for two guys in A+ ball

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it probably goes with Terry’s logic before the Span trade.  The closer prospects get to the majors the less willing teams are to trade them.  So you can get high ceiling guys in A ball, but not as easily in AA or AAA.

Oh, absolutely... I'm just surprised that Beane didn't get a higher profile (but still low minors) prospect from Houston in the deal.

 

I don't think it's a bad deal from either side, just an interesting one.

[drjim]

 

Oh, absolutely... I'm just surprised that Beane didn't get a higher profile (but still low minors) prospect from Houston in the deal.

 

I don't think it's a bad deal from either side, just an interesting one.

 

I would agree with the last line. I think it is a great trade for Houston, but that certainly doesn't mean it's lopsided or even bad for Oakland.

 

I think it shows there are trades to be made, maybe even something of a buyer's market.

[tobi0040]

 

Oh, absolutely... I'm just surprised that Beane didn't get a higher profile (but still low minors) prospect from Houston in the deal.

 

I don't think it's a bad deal from either side, just an interesting one.

 

Over the years Oakland has done a really good job scouting other teams systems. Given their business model I would guess they have more resources scouting the minors than most other teams.

 

Just think about how they have had a sustained run over the last 10-15 years.  By my tally, they have 1,367 wins since 2000 (average of 88.2 if you remove the partial 2015).  .  Only ATL, BOS, LAA, NYY, and STL have more. Since 2005 they have 884.  Only ATL, STL, BOS, DET, ANA, LAD, and PHI have more.  From 2000 to 2014 the Twins have 1,273 and 843.

 

I keep thinking this business model of flipping guys over and over and is unsustainable.  I would think if you go about two years of flipping your best players for prospects that don’t pan out, you are in the cellar for years but it has just never happened.

[John Bonnes]

Two points about this:

1) About the players:  I look at Nottingham and think :"Gonaslves" or "Kepler". That is, they are guys that were down the ladder a bit but have put themselves in the discussion for having a real valuable major league career on the basis of the first half of the year.

 

I suspect that at Houston's discussion boards, when talking about trading prospects, there were plenty of people who listed Nottingham as off-limits because of the excitement around him this year. It is similar to how people might do that for Gonsalves this year for an expiring major league second (or even third, given the market) tier player.

 

Would we be willing to give up Gonsalves for ... I'm trying to come up with the name of the second or third best available player at a position of need that is also going to become a free agent and coming up blank. I don't think we would. So it's not a bad trade for Beane from that standpoint. 

 

2) About the market: And I also think Beane might be looking at the starting pitching market and wondering just how much the bottom might fall out if he waited any longer. There are a ton of really good pitchers that could be available; is Kazmir even in the top five that will be traded? Barely, right? And if Beane waited for the better pitchers to be moved, would there have been anyone left to take home as the bar started flicking the lights?

[Mike Sixel]

Dave Cameron on Fangraphs is now wondering if it is a buyer's market for pitching......

[tobi0040]

 

 

 

2) About the market: And I also think Beane might be looking at the starting pitching market and wondering just how much the bottom might fall out if he waited any longer. There are a ton of really good pitchers that could be available; is Kazmir even in the top five that will be traded? Barely, right? And if Beane waited for the better pitchers to be moved, would there have been anyone left to take home as the bar started flicking the lights?

Could be. Certainly when you think of Hamels and Price, and even Cueto Beane could have thought teams will be wide eyed for them and it also might go down to 7/31, leaving a scramble or no time on the clock for the losing teams to circle back.  The additional sell is that they may get an extra two starts out of Kazmir

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oh, I definitely realize SSS applies here but were I the Houston GM, I would have leveraged that number to drive down the price. After seeing what they gave up for Kazmir, I think it's likely Houston did just that.

I don't think Kazmir's 2015 home-road splits mattered much, if at all, for leverage.  Beane had the more important leverage here, namely that he could simply hold on to to Kazmir and probably get a comp pick next June, and that any available starter better than Kazmir (Cueto, Price, Hamels) will cost a lot more than this.

 

That's how he got a guy who isn't just potentially a fast riser, but who appears to be presently on the rise.  (I like John's comparison to Kepler here -- those guys generally aren't tossed around for non-elite rentals.)

 

Kazmir is from Houston too, so I suspect the Astros feel they can have the inside track on re-signing him (and he could come reasonably, given his previous contract and other names on the market this winter).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, I didn't realize Kazmir is from Houston. Good catch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2) About the market: And I also think Beane might be looking at the starting pitching market and wondering just how much the bottom might fall out if he waited any longer. There are a ton of really good pitchers that could be available; is Kazmir even in the top five that will be traded? Barely, right? And if Beane waited for the better pitchers to be moved, would there have been anyone left to take home as the bar started flicking the lights?

In the other Oakland trade thread, I noted how Beane acts fast.  Recall that Samardzija was traded at the beginning of July last year -- I suspect that offering elite prospect Russell, and accepting Samardzija (who was having a good year but was not the best pitcher traded last year) were the incentives to get something done early.  Donaldson was traded early in the offseason too, and frankly it appears Beane asked for less than he probably should have, just to make the deal happen when he wanted it done.

 

Beane didn't want to be left holding the bag here, but I suspect the Astros didn't want to be calling about Kazmir after the better pitchers moved elsewhere or proved too expensive either.  So they got it done, and it looks like a good deal for both sides.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oh, I didn't realize Kazmir is from Houston. Good catch.

Yup, lifetime Houston resident, apparently.  Born there, drafted out of high school there, and I remember articles about his comeback mentioned workouts at his suburban Houston home.

[drjim]

 

Two points about this:

1) About the players:  I look at Nottingham and think :"Gonaslves" or "Kepler". That is, they are guys that were down the ladder a bit but have put themselves in the discussion for having a real valuable major league career on the basis of the first half of the year.

 

I suspect that at Houston's discussion boards, when talking about trading prospects, there were plenty of people who listed Nottingham as off-limits because of the excitement around him this year. It is similar to how people might do that for Gonsalves this year for an expiring major league second (or even third, given the market) tier player.

 

Would we be willing to give up Gonsalves for ... I'm trying to come up with the name of the second or third best available player at a position of need that is also going to become a free agent and coming up blank. I don't think we would. So it's not a bad trade for Beane from that standpoint. 

 

2) About the market: And I also think Beane might be looking at the starting pitching market and wondering just how much the bottom might fall out if he waited any longer. There are a ton of really good pitchers that could be available; is Kazmir even in the top five that will be traded? Barely, right? And if Beane waited for the better pitchers to be moved, would there have been anyone left to take home as the bar started flicking the lights?

 

I would trade Gonsalves for anything better than a bullpen or corner bat rental and not feel bad about it.

 

If the Twins desperately needed a starter I would have had no problem trading Gonsalves for Kazmir.

[tobi0040]

 

I would trade Gonsalves for anything better than a bullpen or corner bat rental and not feel bad about it.

 

If the Twins desperately needed a starter I would have had no problem trading Gonsalves for Kazmir.

 

I would too, if I thought we were closer to competing than I think we are right now.  I think we have a pair of nines right now. Not time to move the chips in.

 

I am also higher on Gonsalves than most.  I think he is a tall lefty with good velocity and two good pitches. I think he can help this team in 2016/2017.

[zenser]

Cishek to the Cards.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/cardinals-steve-cishek-deal-nearing.html

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am no scout or talent evaluator, but from what I know of Gonsalves from prospect write-ups and such, I think I would trade him for a good starter on a roll like Kazmir right now if that's what we needed.  Kazmir isn't just some warm body to soak up innings, he could potentially be very useful down the stretch.

 

Obviously we don't need a SP, but I wish there was a Kazmir-level rental catcher out there.  Like if Weiters was on the market, or if Lucroy or Vogt had an expiring contract... sadly not.

 

Agreed we shouldn't pay any MORE than that for a rental, though.  Not a fan of that in general (unless it was Yankee-slayer Cliff Lee circa 2010, of course ).