Adam Brett Walker vs. Miguel Sano

twinssouth · June 30, 2015

He's strong as an ox, not an ounce of fat on this guy and athletic. Beyond that, I have nothing more to add.

DaveW · June 30, 2015

Except that's not what Mark Reynolds is.

Reynolds has hit .230 with a .324 OBP in his career.

Wow, I didn't realize his OBP was that high.

jimbo92107 · June 30, 2015

Unless he pushes his walk rate up and his strikeout rate down, hes going to be a bust candidate.

Btw, I was looking up other Twins players and their perpherials.

Danny Santana has a 1.5% walk rate to go with a 25% strikeout rate.

OUCH

Adam Brett Walker's K rate is significant, but comparing it to Danny Santana's K rate isn't fair. Santana is a shortstop, a premium fielding position up the middle. His value as a hitter is getting on base and advancing other base runners with well-placed bunts, grounders and singles. For that reason Santana's K rate is unacceptably high, which is why he belongs in AAA while Jorge Polanco gets his shot.

Walker's value as a hitter is knocking runners in with home runs and balls banged off the wall. Walker's K rate is not as important as an infielder's, because his power numbers are huge. Meanwhile, Walker reportedly would be an upgrade defensively from Eduardo Escobar in Left. Walker is athletic, fast, and has a good arm. His K rate is not that different from other power hitters who commit to a home run swing every time. Sure, it would be nice if it were lower, but do you want him to change his swing and lose that power? Maybe he should, depending on the situation. Meanwhile, if he continued to hit homers at the same rate as he does now, would the team win more games? I think it would.

GMinTraining · June 30, 2015

It's just frustrating that anyone taking this position isn't understanding that High K + Low BB = high production is not a possible equation at the MLB level.

If you want to compare BB/K than you're right. Not many success stories. If you apply each separately than you're wrong. Adam Jones has a terrible BB% ( http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6368&position=OF ). Especially in his first 2 years of 2006 & 2007. Yet he is an All Star regularly. And he is not an All Star because his K rate is so low compared to his BB rate.

I know Jones is in the majors, but what is the acceptable BB rate and what is the acceptable K rate for an individual to be successful at the MLB level. Or is it only when you compare the 2 that you can really assess future talent. Jones OBP during his initial call up year was .237 and yet he came back the following year and posted a .300 OBP and a .311 OBP in his first full season.

I guess you can always argue that Mike Trout led the MLB in SO last year and won the MVP, because his BB rate was twice as good as Jones. Valid point - maybe? Doesn't mean I wouldn't take a Jones on my team.

And I am never saying that Walker doesn't need work. NO DOUBT. I can live with the rewards while he works on it though. Shout out to Berrios. Well deserved.

jokin · June 30, 2015

He's strong as an ox, not an ounce of fat on this guy and athletic. Beyond that, I have nothing more to add.

Having seen Chattanooga play in early May, I concur. I'll add a couple of things. Walker hit a towering opposite field homerun going with a pitch just off the plate, but up in the zone, with a powerful, yet efficient swing. Walker has a patient approach at the plate, but it's important to note, he also has the lowest Contact-Rate in the Southern League and the highest Whiff-Rate and Whiff/Swing-Rate, he swings through a lot of pitches, both in and out of the zone. When standing side by side with Travis Harrison, there's no doubt about his athletic frame:

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/2/8/0/124409280/cuts/20150510_bjh_2195_salhub8j_9h1jzuff.jpg

But this guy's athletic frame is a ripped Babe Ruth by comparison, he obviously generates a lot of kinetic power through his posterior chain, my goodness! Not an ounce of fat here, either.

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/0/7/6/124409076/cuts/20150510_bjh_292_xlrkb3xc_aqffvj7t.jpg

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/5/6/2/124408562/cuts/20150507_bjh_139_2pch4sr6_9b8csn6q.jpg

twinssouth · June 30, 2015

Having seen Chattanooga play in early May, I concur. I'll add a couple of things. Walker hit a towering opposite field homerun going with a pitch just off the plate, but up in the zone, with a powerful, yet efficient swing. Walker has a patient approach at the plate, but it's important to note, he also has the lowest Contact-Rate in the Southern League and the highest Whiff-Rate and Whiff/Swing-Rate, he swings through a lot of pitches, both in and out of the zone. When standing side by side with Travis Harrison, there's no doubt about his athletic frame:

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/2/8/0/124409280/cuts/20150510_bjh_2195_salhub8j_9h1jzuff.jpg

But this guy's athletic frame is a ripped Babe Ruth by comparison, he obviously generates a lot of kinetic power through his posterior chain, my goodness! Not an ounce fat here, either.

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/0/7/6/124409076/cuts/20150510_bjh_292_xlrkb3xc_aqffvj7t.jpg

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/5/6/2/124408562/cuts/20150507_bjh_139_2pch4sr6_9b8csn6q.jpg

Great stuff. How did you get that pic of Walker n Harrison from that angle. The only way I know is from the Beer Garden. You must have been having a cold one. LOL, that's awesome.

old nurse · June 30, 2015

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1808&position=1B/3B

A comp could be Mike Hessmann. 20-30HR in the minors,

Otto von Ballpark · June 30, 2015

For a minor league Walker comp, how about Bernardo Brito? A career 24.5 K% (in a lower strikeout era), versus only a 5.6 BB%, with a .270 AVG and .226 ISO. His age 23 slash line in AA looked very pre-2015 Walker-esque (.277/.316/.498).

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=bernardo-brito

Admittedly, Walker is going insane this year. 23 HR in 71 games, with a .340 ISO. It's definitely putting him on the intrigue list more than his pre-2015 accomplishments. Regardless of his prospect outlook, it will be fun to see if he can maintain it for the full season or through a promotion to AAA.

(Full disclosure: if Twins Daily had been around in the early 1990's, my adolescent self may have posted as a Brito fanboy )

Otto von Ballpark · June 30, 2015

If you want to compare BB/K than you're right. Not many success stories. If you apply each separately than you're wrong. Adam Jones has a terrible BB% ( http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6368&position=OF ). Especially in his first 2 years of 2006 & 2007. Yet he is an All Star regularly. And he is not an All Star because his K rate is so low compared to his BB rate.

Adam Jones had about 70 PA in each of 2006-2007. His career K% is 19.1, about half Walker's current rate in AA. His career minor league K rate looks to have been 20.6%.

Otto von Ballpark · June 30, 2015

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1808&position=1B/3B

A comp could be Mike Hessmann. 20-30HR in the minors,

Looks like Hessman had almost double Walker's walk rate. But he certainly had some big K and power seasons in the minors, and a MLB career that looks like Bernardo Brito's.

ALessKosherScott · June 30, 2015

Not sure there is a good comp out there......people on this site have spent hours and pages and pages on trying to find one MLB that had strikeout numbers like him who succeeded at the MLB level, and can't. OTOH, it is hard to find someone that puts up numbers like him......that said, one reason he puts up good counting numbers is that he stays at a level for a full year, and isn't promoted fast like other guys that put up elite numbers.

I would hypothesis is that he is not likely to be good/great at the MLB level. That's based purely on the stats, and the fact they Twins don't seem to be pushing him at all.

In theory, guy who struck out at a 37 percent clip in AA, in a time when a 37% clip would be comparable to a 50% clip today.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=deer--001rob

Albeit, Deer was two years younger and had a much better walk rate, and kept taking more walks as he stepped up levels. Both probably had true 80 power though.

And I wouldn't mind if ABW kept striking out at the same pace if he'd be willing to mix in a few more walks.

GMinTraining · June 30, 2015

Adam Jones had about 70 PA in each of 2006-2007. His career K% is 19.1, about half Walker's current rate in AA. His career minor league K rate looks to have been 20.6%.

True but Jones BB rate in the majors hovers around 5%. Besides all I'm asking for Walker is about 70 ABs as a 2015 call up too. Important to note too - Adam Jones never had a .340 ISO either (anywhere). Adam Walker does. It comes down to what do you bring to the table? Each player is different and the only way to truly know, is to give them a chance when they are hot and earned it. Not based on "well they probably won't be able to sustain this success". [ What do you have to lose? The runs you are failing to put across the board anyway?] Try him out and send him back like EVERY other prospect you have brought up in recent years. Besides - His teams win. Might bring the club luck

MinnFan4Life · June 30, 2015

Age, defensive value, overall skillset, tools

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in prospect evaluation is to simply scout a statline.

AB Walker is FAR less a defensive liability than Sano. Walker would AT THE LEAST be serviceable (if not better) at corner outfield positions, better than several that have been stationed in left or right field in a Twins uniform over the last 3 or 4 years. He has a good throwing arm and solid quickness for a big man. I cant speak to his routes or tracking fly balls. We will struggle to find Sano a position to play in the field, WAY too many errors at third base. He could very likely end up being a very young DH.

YES, there are too many Ks for ABW. That area has to improve. But Walker has MORE power than Sano. Hard for many to believe with all the hype that Sano has had all this time, but it is true. Your arguments in regards to age and the strikeout & walk numbers are valid. Your statements that Sano trumps Walker in the areas of defensive value, overall skillset and tools is not.

lightfoot789 · July 1, 2015

Walker LEADS all of minor league baseball in HRs @ (23). The next closest guy has 19.

He is Second in all of minor league baseball in RBI @ (67).

He sports a .362 BABIP.

His OPS is an impressive .940 (great)

His ISO is an unprecedented .340 (.250 is Fangraph Excellent).

He has a SLG% in AA of .612 (excellent).

He has a wOBA of .420 (excellent).

His wRC+ is 162 (excellent).

And he LEADS all of minor league baseball with 43 extra base hits (XBH). That's not all home runs there.

That has to be impressive to even the biggest doubters. All in AA. If he doesn't deserve a promotion - no one does. The excellent and great marks are the Fangraph grading scales for each metric.

Sano might have better upside, but the above metrics should make you say WOW. Excellent is the highest grade.

BoomBoom · July 1, 2015

Such amazing differentials with Ks & production. I have to say just maybe with Walker. This is not a fluke season.

ExpectMorePayLess · July 1, 2015

One article link and one quote from another article that have Walker talking about his approach for this season and his focus as it pertains to him and his coaches.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150630&content_id=133624574&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp&sid=milb

"Things have definitely been going well," Walker said. "I think all the hard work I put in during the offseason is paying off."

Mientkiewicz, who also managed Walker in the FSL a year ago, agrees.

"The improvement he's made is very noticeable," the manager said. "You pull for kids like him. He does it right."

Walker hits Minor League best 23rd home run
Twins' No. 12 prospect homers in third consecutive game for Double-A Chattanooga

"I think the main thing is I've been a little better with my approach, making sure I'm getting good pitches to hit," Walker told MiLB.com recently. "I'm trying to be a little more patient and making sure when I get those pitches that I'm not missing them. I think that's been a big key for me so far this year, just making sure I'm getting the barrel on the ball up in the zone. So far, I've been able to get to them."

----------------------------

I personally think his patience is the reason for his higher SO totals this year. He takes more pitches per AB than everyone on the team other than Harrison. He is learning to recognize more pitches as a hitter, but putting himself in lots of pitcher counts instead of hitter counts. Hopefully this philosophy helps on the back end when his recognition improves and he becomes more aggressive early in counts.

drivlikejehu · July 1, 2015

I had a post a few weeks ago that listed his top comps from the past 15 years, but don't care enough to dig it up.

Walker is the baseball equivalent of a long-drive champ. That's it. He can't actually play the game offensively. He's overrated, not underrated, because his weakness basically can't be fixed unless maybe he needs eye surgery.

I mean, the minors are full of organizational players with no real shot at an MLB career. Generally they stay under the radar and are rarely discussed. Walker is a non-prospect just like they are, but because he hits home runs against minor league pitchers, he gets some attention (particularly from his relatives posting on TD). It's exciting for the minor league fans that get to watch him do it, but it's a pure sideshow with zero relevance to the Twins, now or ever.

mikelink45 · July 1, 2015

I would alternate Walker, Vargas, and Sano the rest of the year. Bring them up and down if needed and keep the one that figures it out at the MLB level.

Steve Lein · July 1, 2015

He doesn't have to be as good as Dunn at the plate either since he brings some defensive value and more speed than a guy like Dunn.

Meanwhile, Walker reportedly would be an upgrade defensively from Eduardo Escobar in Left. Walker is athletic, fast, and has a good arm.

Just have to throw my two cents in here on the defensive side of Walker, and I'll add some opinions on his offense...

He is not an outfielder like Oswaldo Arcia is not an outfielder. I've seen him brutalize some routine plays and he gets rated below average on defense in every scouting scale/scouting report you will find. Will he be better than Arcia? Yes, because he has the better speed and athleticism, but he lacks the instincts like Arcia does, and does not have much of an arm, certainly not a good arm for an outfielder.

There's no doubt the power is awesome. On the back fields at ST this year, I watched one leave the complex. Then later that same day while watching one of the other games, I heard the fans reaction to another blast. We certainly dig the long ball...

It's also been inferred by some that he is plenty "patient" despite the lack of walks because he sees a lot of pitches. But to me, that's more a result of the fact that he swings and misses so much. A low-contact rate has a direct effect on how many pitches you will see - a strikeout will be minimum 3 pitches, and if they're throwing primarily junk to him, that will get up to around 5-6 pitches very easily in an at bat. He'll blast a 95MPH fastball into the next county one at-bat, and miss the same pitch three times the next at bat. It's both frustrating and awesome to watch.

In summary, I've been waiting for him to either improve even marginally in plate discipline/K-rate to make me a believer, or fall off a cliff in his offensive numbers and disappear. He hasn't done either yet, so I don't really know what to make of his future. (I do like that his batting average is improving...)

jokin · July 1, 2015

Will he be better than Arcia? Yes, because he has the better speed and athleticism, but he lacks the instincts like Arcia does, and does not have much of an arm, certainly not a good arm for an outfielder.

It's also been inferred by some that he is plenty "patient" despite the lack of walks because he sees a lot of pitches. But to me, that's more a result of the fact that he swings and misses so much. A low-contact rate has a direct effect on how many pitches you will see - a strikeout will be minimum 3 pitches, and if they're throwing primarily junk to him, that will get up to around 5-6 pitches very easily in an at bat. He'll blast a 95MPH fastball into the next county one at-bat, and miss the same pitch three times the next at bat. It's both frustrating and awesome to watch.

In summary, I've been waiting for him to either improve even marginally in plate discipline/K-rate to make me a believer, or fall off a cliff in his offensive numbers and disappear. He hasn't done either yet, so I don't really know what to make of his future. (I do like that his batting average is improving...)

Thank you. You've put well into words, on both the offensive and defensive side, what I witnessed when I had the chance to see him play in early May. In that game, Walker hit a massive opposite field home run and a booming double, faced a ton of pitches over 5 PAs (whiffing on a number of strikes), and defensively seemed a beat slow off the crack of the bat in LF- automatically in readily acquiescent-mode to anything hit towards his left with Buxton there to cover for him in CF..

To further confound the analysis, Walker has dramatically upped his BA/OPS this month even as he's seeing far less strikes- 54% in April, 38% in June. He's doubled his Out of Zone Swing rate, from 23% to 46%, he's swinging more at EVERYTHING.

His K% in June has actually gone up- to 39%- vs. 36.2% previously to that. And yet his June averages are:

BA .316 OPS 1.129 (IsoD .054)

vs

BA .249 OPS .835 (IsoD .055) in April/May.

Walker- the ultimate outlier?

diehardtwinsfan · July 1, 2015

Walker- the ultimate outlier?

Quite possibly. Personally, though, I hope he can figure out how to lay off pitches out of the zone, or figure out ways to correct a hole in his swing. Not sure what it is, given I've never seen him play, but either one is something major league pitchers can exploit far better than their minor league counterparts.

jokin · July 1, 2015

Quite possibly. Personally, though, I hope he can figure out how to lay off pitches out of the zone, or figure out ways to correct a hole in his swing. Not sure what it is, given I've never seen him play, but either one is something major league pitchers can exploit far better than their minor league counterparts.

Yeah. But the improving numbers in June show no indication that he's willing to lay off obvious balls- he's actually gone the opposite way- and the hole in his swing is there "better" than ever. The Twins coaches are either not concerned enough- or unable- to change his hitting approach.

And you're entirely correct, all of the history of baseball suggests he's headed towards an inevitable crash on both fronts when he finally goes up against MLB pitching.

Otto von Ballpark · July 1, 2015

Besides all I'm asking for Walker is about 70 ABs as a 2015 call up too.

I'd probably want to challenge him this year too. Probably a call-up to AAA now, and if he acquits himself well, a September call-up to MLB. Get a little more info on him before you have to make the 40-man roster decision this winter.

It would be very interesting if someone made him a Rule 5 pick, though!

ALessKosherScott · July 1, 2015

I had a post a few weeks ago that listed his top comps from the past 15 years, but don't care enough to dig it up.

Walker is the baseball equivalent of a long-drive champ. That's it. He can't actually play the game offensively. He's overrated, not underrated, because his weakness basically can't be fixed unless maybe he needs eye surgery.

I mean, the minors are full of organizational players with no real shot at an MLB career. Generally they stay under the radar and are rarely discussed. Walker is a non-prospect just like they are, but because he hits home runs against minor league pitchers, he gets some attention (particularly from his relatives posting on TD). It's exciting for the minor league fans that get to watch him do it, but it's a pure sideshow with zero relevance to the Twins, now or ever.

Long drive champ would seem to me as a guy with 80 power during batting practice who can't put it to use in a game. Walker has usable game power, and it's something pitchers are always going to have to game plan around.

If we really want a major league comp of what he could be if every thing went right, that's pretty easy.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingmda01.shtml

The question is can he learn enough to get himself into the 2-0 counts where he will get cookies to hit, as opposed to working himself into 0-2 counts where we'll be waiting for the invevitable strikeout.

gil4 · July 1, 2015

Such amazing differentials with Ks & production. I have to say just maybe with Walker. This is not a fluke season.

I don't think anyone is saying it's a fluke - his production has been pretty consistent for several years over several levels. It's just that his type of production in the minors doesn't normally lead to major league success.

I did find one comp who turned out to be pretty good (until he hurt his hip.) He didn't spend much time in the minors, more because of who he was than because of his development, but he struck out more than 33% of the time in his 236 minor league PAs, and continued to strike out a ton while he finally became an outstanding MLB player by learning on the job. I'm sure Bo Jackson was a better athlete than ABW, but by all reports Walker is very athletic.

The Kingman comp (post 54) is interesting, but his K rate was lower than 25% in the minors, he went straight from college to AA (he was the top overall pick in the draft), he only stayed in the minors for 682 PAs, and he was in the majors to stay by August of his age 22 season. With this comp, ABW is Kingman lite, at best.

There is a possibility Walker will have a successful MLB career, but those K rates should really put a damper on expectations. despite current production levels, the odds area against him.

drivlikejehu · July 1, 2015

Long drive champ would seem to me as a guy with 80 power during batting practice who can't put it to use in a game. Walker has usable game power, and it's something pitchers are always going to have to game plan around.

If we really want a major league comp of what he could be if every thing went right, that's pretty easy.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingmda01.shtml

The question is can he learn enough to get himself into the 2-0 counts where he will get cookies to hit, as opposed to working himself into 0-2 counts where we'll be waiting for the invevitable strikeout.

Walker has usable minor league power. That's not relevant - only usable MLB power matters.

Kingman had better MLB plate discipline than Walker has AA discipline. There is no comparison. Walker just cannot make enough contact or work the count enough to hit in the Majors. He isn't only bad compared to guys that went on to succeed - his AA numbers are historically bad, worse than almost everyone who ever played full time in AA going back decades.

To put it another way - hundreds of players failed due to their lack of plate discipline. Walker is much worse in that area than 99% of those failures.

Otto von Ballpark · July 1, 2015

If we really want a major league comp of what he could be if every thing went right, that's pretty easy.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingmda01.shtml

The question is can he learn enough to get himself into the 2-0 counts where he will get cookies to hit, as opposed to working himself into 0-2 counts where we'll be waiting for the invevitable strikeout.

Yeah, Kingman posted an 11% BB rate in the minors, 8.2% in the majors (peaking much higher), as opposed to Walker's current 7% career BB rate in the minors.

There really isn't a successful MLB comp that combines Walker's K's with his low BB's.

TRex · July 1, 2015

Just have to throw my two cents in here on the defensive side of Walker, and I'll add some opinions on his offense...

<snip>

He'll blast a 95MPH fastball into the next county one at-bat, and miss the same pitch three times the next at bat. It's both frustrating and awesome to watch.
(emphasis mine)

IMHO, this is the one thing that gives him a fighting chance in the majors. I would imagine this is also part of why his raw power translates into game power.

It is my recollection that, despite Michael Restovich's 'light-tower power', the knock on him was that he had a "slider speed" bat. This is fairly common amongst minor-league sluggers, and would seem to be an even worse prognostic indicator for a significant MLB career than low W/SO rate.

Now, they do say that Walker's swing can get long at times, so he might still be vulnerable to MLB pitchers who can hit spots with 93-95 mph FBs, but that's like saying a player has trouble hitting a good slider (i.e. who doesn't!).

Otto von Ballpark · July 1, 2015

It is my recollection that, despite Michael Restovich's 'light-tower power', the knock on him was that he had a "slider speed" bat. This is fairly common amongst minor-league sluggers, and would seem to be an even worse prognostic indicator for a significant MLB career than low W/SO rate.

I am sure a slow bat doesnt help, but if this was true, wouldn't we have seen someone, somewhere with a "fast bat" make a successful transition to MLB despite similar minor league SO and BB rates?

Steve Lein · July 1, 2015

IMHO, this is the one thing that gives him a fighting chance in the majors. I would imagine this is also part of why his raw power translates into game power.

Now, they do say that Walker's swing can get long at times, so he might still be vulnerable to MLB pitchers who can hit spots with 93-95 mph FBs, but that's like saying a player has trouble hitting a good slider (i.e. who doesn't!).

Reading too much into it, I just used a "95MPH fastball" as an example (and of what he'll see more of, and better versions of, in the majors). Have seen the same thing on breaking balls, same thing on average fastballs.

It's not like he's facing Top Pitching prospects every night that's led to all those K's.

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