Adam Brett Walker vs. Miguel Sano

buckshotmike · June 30, 2015

Why is ABW not a higher ranked prospect? His numbers are superior to Sano in almost every category. Is it because the K's are so high, which is one of a few stats where Miguel is better.

What's a good comp for Kepler's ceiling? AJ Pollack?

Whammy · June 30, 2015

What's a good comp for Kepler's ceiling? AJ Pollack?

Todd Helton?

Seth Stohs · June 30, 2015

Why is ABW not a higher ranked prospect? His numbers are superior to Sano in almost every category. Is it because the K's are so high, which is one of a few stats where Miguel is better.

What's a good comp for Kepler's ceiling? AJ Pollack?

Yes, it's because of the strikeouts... and Sano is about a year-and-a-half younger. Sano walks a lot more.

But I would argue that Walker is ranked too low in prospect rankings.

drjim · June 30, 2015

Age, defensive value, overall skillset, tools

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in prospect evaluation is to simply scout a statline.

drock2190 · June 30, 2015

Unless he pushes his walk rate up and his strikeout rate down, hes going to be a bust candidate.

Btw, I was looking up other Twins players and their perpherials.

Danny Santana has a 1.5% walk rate to go with a 25% strikeout rate.

OUCH

jokin · June 30, 2015

Yes, it's because of the strikeouts... and Sano is about a year-and-a-half younger. Sano walks a lot more.

But I would argue that Walker is ranked too low in prospect rankings.

Plus, Sano missed an entire season due to TJ. He's quickly making up for lost time over the last two months. Through tonight's game:

Sano's BB% is 13.3% (Ranked #14 in SL) BB/K is 0.55 (Top 27 in SL) K% is 23.7%

ABW's BB% is 7.1% (Ranked bottom 25) BB/K is 0.19 (Bot 4 in SL) K% is 37.2%- WORST in SL

That last number of Walker's translates to about a 45-50% MLB K-rate. Unsustainable.

It's pretty obvious from these numbers, comparative athleticism and age/experience, which of the two is better positioned for long-term success.

Walker is an intriguing candidate, but I'm not sure if he should move up the prospect rankings, Chris Carter is the current AL strikeout King (33.7% career K-rate with an 11.6% BB-rate), and he might be the closest comp. Look at his K and BB numbers in his one year of AA ball at age 22:

K% 20%

BB% 13.8%

Carter went on to spend parts of 4 years in AAA, here's how he did over 1277 AAA PAs:

K% 24.4%

BB% 12.2%

This set of data vividly illustrates just how far away Walker still is from being considered a more viable prospect (plus a year behind Carter at the same stage in their careers).

GMinTraining · June 30, 2015

Unless he pushes his walk rate up and his strikeout rate down, hes going to be a bust candidate.

They are all candidates until they prove themselves Boom or Bust to management and / or fans .

Definitely needs to push walk rate up and strikeout rate down. Not the only thing that defines him though. Could you live with poor rates if production stayed the same? And

Who was the last Twins success story in terms of candidates, based on your peripherals of a Boom prospect? We know what you think in terms of potential Bust (23 HRs & 67 RBI in AA / 109 SO in 71 games). Glass half empty

Linus · June 30, 2015

Age, defensive value, overall skillset, tools

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in prospect evaluation is to simply scout a statline.

Isn't that what everyone on TD does? How many games do any of us see a prospect play?

BoomBoom · June 30, 2015

Sano's BB% is 13.3% (Ranked #14 in SL) BB/K is 0.55 (Top 27 in SL) K% is 23.7%
ABW's BB% is 7.1% (Ranked bottom 25) BB/K is 0.19 (Bot 4 in SL) K% is 37.2%- WORST in SL

In addition - ABW (#1 BEST in SL - HRs - RBI - XBH - TB - SLG%)

(#2 in Runs Scored) (#3 in OPS) (#5 in Doubles)

For the record - Walker has more BB than Jorge Polanco (just saying).

Who am I? I can not earn a BB for the life of me, but I score more than everyone in the SL not named Miguel Sano. Oh yeah and I do that consistently every year.

We don't need him to be the BEST in baseball when he gets to the MLB his first year. I will take Walker with a 25% drop off in production though. Still places him better statistically than every current Twin in terms of production.

To the topic subject - Miguel has more upside based on position worth. Walker is the better athlete IMO and should stay so further into career.

nicksaviking · June 30, 2015

Not the only thing that defines him though. Could you live with poor rates if production stayed the same?

His production could not stay the same at the MLB level. In this day and age of scouting, every MLB manager would be sure his pitchers only throw off speed stuff out of the zone to him. He would never see a pitch to hit.

Think about how upset we would be if our staff was facing a guy who can't lay off anything but the pitchers still for some reason threw him strikes?

jokin · June 30, 2015

We don't need him to be the BEST in baseball when he gets to the MLB his first year. I will take Walker with a 25% drop off in production though.

And therein lies the problem for Adam Walker, Chris Carter has never come close to duplicating his one big year in AA, either in AAA or MLB. Carter with his vastly superior MiLB plate discipline to Walker, has a MLB career OPS of .763 and wOBA of .332- which are right around a 25% drop-off from his AA numbers of OPS 1.011 and wOBA .450. And remember, this was only achieved after apprenticing in AAA over significant parts of 4 seasons.

Things could change, or Walker could be the ultimate outlier, but as of now, the projected numbers just don't figure.

lightfoot789 · June 30, 2015

And therein lies the problem for Adam Walker, Chris Carter has never come close to duplicating his one big year in AA, either in AAA or MLB. Carter with his vastly superior MiLB plate discipline to Walker, has a MLB career OPS of .763 and wOBA of .332- which are right around a 25% drop-off from his AA numbers of OPS 1.011 and wOBA .450. And remember, this was only achieved after apprenticing in AAA over significant parts of 4 seasons.

Things could change, or Walker could be the ultimate outlier, but as of now, the projected numbers just don't figure.

I wouldn't be able to argue your point based on prospect history. Based on gut and past history of Walker's production maybe. Again - No one can name a guy who led every league in HRs - RBI - TB - & XBH three years running and failed? That is my special player argument. My ultimate outlier rationale!

And every player in baseball doesn't get promoted if that is your argument. Besides they would have been in second place anyway.

DaveW · June 30, 2015

He has to cut the ks down, or else he is a mark Reynolds type (which still has a little value) as a .200 BA, .230 OBP guy who hits 30 HR

John Kelsey · June 30, 2015

He has to cut the ks down, or else he is a mark Reynolds type (which still has a little value) as a .200 BA, .230 OBP guy who hits 30 HR

Except that's not what Mark Reynolds is.

Reynolds has hit .230 with a .324 OBP in his career.

Ncgo4 · June 30, 2015

Clearly ABW loses the comparison to Sano. The real question, howeve, is how does he compare to Robinson, Mauer and Vargas? In my opinion, Walker's ability to swing through pitches is well overcome by his ability to get hits and especially to go yard with runners on base.

The three Twins mentioned have been almost void of consistent production. I would love to see our Mr Walker in left, 1base or DH and see what we might get. If he's only a little bit better but has a ton of power it would be interesting. Again, he really needs to improve his BB/K numbers to be an MLB star. But to be better than the 3 Twins mentioned? I don't think so.

Platoon · June 30, 2015

His production could not stay the same at the MLB level. In this day and age of scouting, every MLB manager would be sure his pitchers only throw off speed stuff out of the zone to him. He would never see a pitch to hit.

Think about how upset we would be if our staff was facing a guy who can't lay off anything but the pitchers still for some reason threw him strikes?

I keep thinking that about Dozier, and they just keep throwing him high fastballs. And he keeps hitting them into the seats. As a hitter, you will always get mistakes to hit. But if your weak spot is fairly large, you better hit the mistakes very well at a very high rate.

Pitz · June 30, 2015

Walker is certainly a fascinating prospect to follow as he's continually managed to rack up run producing numbers alongside low OBPs and high Ks. It was thought by many (myself included) that as he got to the higher levels he would be exposed. And as he's halfway through a season of AA his alarmingly high K rate would indicate that he has been exposed - yet his extra base hit numbers continue to be off the charts. It just doesn't seem to make much sense. From the numbers, it seems like he either swings and misses or makes really hard contact. Is it possible for a guy to continue to sustain his odd combo?

I'd love to hear from a scout/coach, who follows Walker consistently, what it is that he does to be able do what he's doing. What's his approach? Is he purely a mistake hitter with an incredible knack for not missing mistakes? Is he a guess hitter who's guess is either way off or spot on? Is he a free swinger who runs into pitches frequently, or does he sit on pitches in a certain zone and hammers anything in his sweet spot?

drjim · June 30, 2015

Isn't that what everyone on TD does? How many games do any of us see a prospect play?

Maybe there is a lesson there.

But I would add a couple of things. Even though many of us don't see the players we can read. There are many great sources providing information on each of these prospects that we can compile ourselves and make judgements.

The second part is that there are patterns that can picked up once you have studied prospects for long enough. There are studies that have been done that show what stats are most predictive of future success, and there are certain prospect types that lead to success.

People ignore both of these at their own peril.

Mike Sixel · June 30, 2015

Not sure there is a good comp out there......people on this site have spent hours and pages and pages on trying to find one MLB that had strikeout numbers like him who succeeded at the MLB level, and can't. OTOH, it is hard to find someone that puts up numbers like him......that said, one reason he puts up good counting numbers is that he stays at a level for a full year, and isn't promoted fast like other guys that put up elite numbers.

I would hypothesis is that he is not likely to be good/great at the MLB level. That's based purely on the stats, and the fact they Twins don't seem to be pushing him at all.

drjim · June 30, 2015

Not sure there is a good comp out there......people on this site have spent hours and pages and pages on trying to find one MLB that had strikeout numbers like him who succeeded at the MLB level, and can't. OTOH, it is hard to find someone that puts up numbers like him......that said, one reason he puts up good counting numbers is that he stays at a level for a full year, and isn't promoted fast like other guys that put up elite numbers.

I would hypothesis is that he is not likely to be good/great at the MLB level. That's based purely on the stats, and the fact they Twins don't seem to be pushing him at all.

The reason you can't find a comp is that people like him don't make the majors for more than a k infused cup of coffee. If you went through the history of the minors you would find some people that put up numbers in the same ballpark but never made it.

Mike Sixel · June 30, 2015

The reason you can't find a comp is that people like him don't make the majors for more than a k infused cup of coffee. If you went through the history of the minors you would find some people that put up numbers in the same ballpark but never made it.

I'm not sure anyone can even find a minor league comp, since, as I typed, most guys that have produced his kind of stats get promoted before they can put up a long list of counting stats......

drjim · June 30, 2015

I'm not sure anyone can even find a minor league comp, since, as I typed, most guys that have produced his kind of stats get promoted before they can put up a long list of counting stats......

Are you sure? I don't think that is true at all. They are the type of guys that stall out at AA, AAA or maybe a AAAA player.

I'm not saying that Walker is a common profile, but certainly a profile that comes along on occasion.

halfchest · June 30, 2015

If there is a decent comp in the minors I'd like to see it. I think he is a crazy outlier. I'd like to see a good scouting report on him. With his insane K numbers, I'm kinda surprised he's gotten enough good pitches to even get the extra base hits he has gotten. Is he Vlad Guerrero like in his ability to smack stuff out of the zone? (Not saying Guerrero a comp at all, not even close, but just asking is he hitting his homers on pitches out of the zone? Or are guys still giving him decent pitches here and there despite the high chance he'll strikeout?

He's a confusing guy for sure. I hold out a glimmer of hope that he'll somehow develop some better pitch recognition and start walking a bit more at some point. Maybe become an Adam Dunn 3 true outcomes kinda guy. That's probably his best chance at becoming a relevant major leaguer. He doesn't have to be as good as Dunn at the plate either since he brings some defensive value and more speed than a guy like Dunn.

But yah, to the main point yes, I agree his K's are what keep him from being a top guy like Sano.

nicksaviking · June 30, 2015

Are you sure? I don't think that is true at all. They are the type of guys that stall out at AA, AAA or maybe a AAAA player.

I'm not saying that Walker is a common profile, but certainly a profile that comes along on occasion.

And I'll give it a try:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=restov001mic

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood--002ric

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mottol001cha

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=borcha001jos

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=harvey002rya

And these are just the high profile guys I could think of, meaning these were guys who had huge strikeout issues but those ranking them still rated them as a top prospect. Walker isn't even getting that hype. All of those guys except for Harvey could get on base too.

Edit: It seems that BBR's minor league pages are having some issues loading the stats. I'm sure they'll be back up shortly.

GMinTraining · June 30, 2015

Twins are taking it slow with Walker and that is ok. If he becomes a star at 25 as opposed to say, a Buxton at 23. SO WHAT! He star value easily outweighs his age. Besides - dominating in the areas he is dominating at the age of 23 is not a bad thing.

(1) If he fixes his faults, he is one of the Best in the game. (2) If he fixes his faults just a tad, he is an Almost an All Star for the mid summer classic (Dozieris - on the outside). (3) If he continues to Do what he does (high Ks / low BB / high production), he will continue to frustrate fans. (4) If his K's and Low BB get worse and he can not adapt to MLB pitching, you have a bust.

I can live with 3 of 4

Mike Sixel · June 30, 2015

Isn't that true of every minor leaguer, if he fixes his faults he's great?

nicksaviking · June 30, 2015

Twins are taking it slow with Walker and that is ok. If he becomes a star at 25 as opposed to say, a Buxton at 23. SO WHAT! He star value easily outweighs his age. Besides - dominating in the areas he is dominating at the age of 23 is not a bad thing.

(1) If he fixes his faults, he is one of the Best in the game. (2) If he fixes his faults just a tad, he is an Almost an All Star for the mid summer classic (Dozieris - on the outside). (3) If he continues to Do what he does (high Ks / low BB / high production), he will continue to frustrate fans. (4) If his K's and Low BB get worse and he can not adapt to MLB pitching, you have a bust.

I can live with 3 of 4

It's just frustrating that anyone taking this position isn't understanding that High K + Low BB = high production is not a possible equation at the MLB level.

RaymondLuxuryYacht · June 30, 2015

I am too ~~busy~~ lazy to look it up, but I remember Ryan Howard having ugly K rates in the minors (and in the majors as well). But I think his walk rates were a bit better.

Mike Sixel · June 30, 2015

And I'll give it a try:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=restov001mic
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood--002ric
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mottol001cha
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=borcha001jos
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=harvey002rya

And these are just the high profile guys I could think of, meaning these were guys who had huge strikeout issues but those ranking them still rated them as a top prospect. Walker isn't even getting that hype. All of those guys except for Harvey could get on base too.

Edit: It seems that BBR's minor league pages are having some issues loading the stats. I'm sure they'll be back up shortly.

Weird, so is Fangrpahs.....so I can't tell if any of those guys had numbers like him (though Wood would not surprise me).

nicksaviking · June 30, 2015

I am too ~~busy~~ lazy to look it up, but I remember Ryan Howard having ugly K rates in the minors (and in the majors as well). But I think his walk rates were a bit better.

Yes Howard has always had strong walk rates. He has a career .351 OBP and that's despite the past 4 seasons being pretty awful.

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