Twins more willing to trade Span

[Fatt Crapps]

Damn you guys.

 

By most accounts in New York, Alderson pulled off a coup. It was apparent Beltran would leave as a free agent, but fans and media were skeptical that Alderson could acquire a big-time prospect for a two-month rental who contractually can't be offered arbitration and, therefore, won't generate compensatory draft picks.

Remember how Verve (and others) were so upset that the Twinks didn't deal Cuddy at the deadline? Sure he doesn't have the name of Beltran, but at least that team would get a draft pick in return (which ended up being Berrios). Some GM would have caved in Billy Smith style and given the Twinks a real nice piece IMO.

 

But I kinda like Berrios...who knows.

[kab21]

Thats an interesting point. Will buyers give up less for potential free agents now that thy DON'T get back draft picks when they walk? Not that important for Span, but it is for others.

 

JM$.02, I thnk Span is worth quite a bit. He has the solid D, good OBP, and is a true lead off guy that can play a defensive position. I wrote a story a few weeks ago finding teams & there are even more now.

Draft picks have never been a big part of the equation when a player is signed for 2.5 seasons. The Twins should absolutely be expecting a top 50 prospect for dealing Span. I also understand that pitching is a big need but I would take the best prospect package instead of looking just for pitching. When you trade/draft for need you usually lose.

 

FWIW - a draft pick is still possible if you offer arb and are willing to pay 10-12M if the player accepts.

[PseudoSABR]

There's Span the player and there's Span the contract. The sum of both is worth substantial pieces, whether at the deadline or next offseason. Given the public rumors over that last year, the Twins seem intent on capitalizing on Span's current value, which can only decrease over time...

[notoriousgod71]

Yep, we've already got you down for that. Let us know if anything changes.

 

OK, if you're a contending team why would you trade for him? About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

[DaveW]

About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

Wow, are you serious?

 

For one thing, he has the 7th highest WAR of any CF this year, trailing guys like Hamilton, McCutchen, Trout and Bourn. Fan Graphs has him as the 3rd best defensive CF this year as well, trailing only Bourn and Trout and also ranks in the top ten for .BA and OBP for all CF, his .BABIP is about 30 points lower then his career average which indicates he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate and his average, obp and sulgging should all continue to improve as well. He has the 3rd lowest K rate which is exactly what you want out of a leadoff or #2 hitter type guy, hes going to put the ball in play.

 

Through on top of it that you would have Span for 3+ years and you have yourselves a nice little ball player. Hell I could even see a non contending team like Seattle trading for Span.(Maybe not at the deadline obviously, but heading into next season)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Wow, are you serious?

 

For one thing, he has the 7th highest WAR of any CF this year, trailing guys like Hamilton, McCutchen, Trout and Bourn. Fan Graphs has him as the 3rd best defensive CF this year as well, trailing only Bourn and Trout and also ranks in the top ten for .BA and OBP for all CF, his .BABIP is about 30 points lower then his career average which indicates he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate and his average, obp and sulgging should all continue to improve as well. He has the 3rd lowest K rate which is exactly what you want out of a leadoff or #2 hitter type guy, hes going to put the ball in play.

 

Through on top of it that you would have Span for 3+ years and you have yourselves a nice little ball player. Hell I could even see a non contending team like Seattle trading for Span.(Maybe not at the deadline obviously, but heading into next season)

I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.

[DaveW]

I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.

I'd have no problem holding onto Span, and honestly will be sad if he is traded. However if a team offers you a true high ceiling pitcher or like Kab said a high ceiling prospect of any position then you have to think seriously about trading him. I'd prefer its a major league ready or close to major league ready #2 pitcher, but that's (think Gio Gonzalez prior to this year) but that is just my preference.

 

Revere appears to at least be a serviceable stop gap at CF until one of Hicks, Arcia, Buxton or Benson pushes the issue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

OK, if you're a contending team why would you trade for him? About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

Take a look around the majors at some of the guys contending teams are running out in the leadoff spot. Now look again and see who some of those same contending teams are running out in centerfield.

 

A .700+ OPS guy with speed, a decent OBP, and good centerfield defense isn't that easy to come by. Add in the fact that he's under 30 and is cost-controlled for over two more seasons and you have a guy that teams want on their rosters.

 

Hell, I'll do it for you:

 

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=was#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1341067737361&split=b1&sortColumn=obp&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

 

The Reds' leadoff men are getting on base 23% of the time. The Dodgers are getting on base 28% of the time. The Orioles are getting on base 25% of the time, the Pirates 27%.

 

You don't think those teams would love to have a table setter that gets on base 34-35% of the time?

 

I keep saying it over and over again but this is not 2004. Baseball is a different game. While we used to be a little meh about guys who get on base 34% of the time in 2004, they're a real and valuable commodity in 2012 and they're well above the MLB average.

[MidwestMeat]

Yeah its a good argument, honestly you prob just take the best arm available, but I would feel alot better if said pitcher was less than 1 year away from the majors as every top pitching prospect has had some bad luck in the Twins system the past 4-5 years. Guerra, Gibson, Whimmers, Hunt,etc

The twins really have had awful luck with pitching prospects. I don't know what is more frustrating.....having all our prospects go down with TJ or finally landing a true ace and watching him leave once he gets those dollar signs in his eyes.

[jorgenswest]

If we trade Span and move Revere, who do we have ready to go into RF for 2013? Parmelee? Benson? We can't count on Arcia to be ready.

 

Free agency? Take a look at the available free agent outfielders. Who will sign for the money they are paying Span?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177

 

Hardly any. We can probably get Delmon back.

 

Let's keep the below market value we have in Span and overpay a pitcher in the winter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If we trade Span and move Revere, who do we have ready to go into RF for 2013? Parmelee? Benson? We can't count on Arcia to be ready.

 

Free agency? Take a look at the available free agent outfielders. Who will sign for the money they are paying Span?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177

 

Hardly any. We can probably get Delmon back.

 

Let's keep the below market value we have in Span and overpay a pitcher in the winter.

With the glut of outfielders the Twins have in the wings, it won't kill the team to sign a mediocre stopgap or just plug their noses with a Mastrioanni type and hope that one of the kids is ready by next July.

 

The Twins need starters far more than they need outfielders.

[DaveW]

With the glut of outfielders the Twins have in the wings, it won't kill the team to sign a mediocre stopgap and hope that one of the kids is ready by next July.

 

The Twins need starters far more than they need outfielders.

Yeah, also it should be pointed out that finding a capable RF on the FA/trade market is prob the easiest position to find.

 

But any of Benson, Parmelee, Doumit, Hicks, Arcia or even Plouffe (if Valencia starts playing well again) could man RF in 2013. The FA market has a few guys you could prob bring in on a cheap enough deal like Tori Hunter, Cody Ross, Andruw Jones or Scott Hariston.

[jorgenswest]

I am in as long as the Twins stay in house or gamble on minor league free agent. Let's go cheap in RF with Parmelee or other. Trade Span and get pitching prospects. Take the Span money saved in RF and overpay a pitcher.

 

I am not in if it means they sign a decline phase RF to a contract similar to Carroll and Doumit.

[greengoblinrulz]

Spans biggest negative for me is his lack of SB speed....which he really never had if you look back.

I am extremely happy with his 25 XBH this yr (2nd on club to Josh W)....10th in Lg in doubles w/20. On pace for over 50 & that is excellent.

His CF defensive metrics are also outstanding.....with a modest 350 INN to qualify, he's 2nd in majors & first in AL in UZR w/5.4, range w/4.2 & runs saved w/10 (all 2nd to Michael Bourne).....for those that follow defense.

Add in his contract, & he should yield a VERY good deal soon.

[biggentleben]

FWIW - a draft pick is still possible if you offer arb and are willing to pay 10-12M if the player accepts.

It's not "arbitration" anymore. It's a qualifying offer. However, for a rental, there are no draft picks, unless the guy accepts a qualifying offer, and plays a full season for the team that traded for him at the offer amount. A player must be on a team's roster (or in the organization) from Opening Day in order to qualify for any compensation.

[biggentleben]

Spans biggest negative for me is his lack of SB speed....which he really never had if you look back.

It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.

[Riverbrian]

It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.

I agree... Base stealing is a combination of guts, instinct, confidence, organizational philosophy and the battery combination they are facing. Speed helps greatly but doesn't mean you are a base stealer. Gardy may not like all the advanced metric stats but I'm willing to bet that he has a stop watch and the willingness to express disapointment over base runners getting thrown out.

 

In my opinion, Span could become a base stealer over time if he was traded to a more aggressive organization such as the Brewers or Angels.

[Vervehound]

one thing that crimps a trade with the nationals was that they dealt a bunch of prospects to get gio gonzalez, including peacock and cole, who'd likely be at the front of any group of prospects we'd be asking for.

[biggentleben]

one thing that crimps a trade with the nationals was that they dealt a bunch of prospects to get gio gonzalez, including peacock and cole, who'd likely be at the front of any group of prospects we'd be asking for.

And the guys of interest in the organization at this point wouldn't be available, like Rendon, or would be more highly thought of by Washington than their relative value, like Alex Meyer and Matt Purke. I could see some guys like Marrero or their group of lefties (Solis, Ray, and Rosenbaum) being trade bait for Span, but I'm not sure that's the return many here would be happy with.

[greengoblinrulz]

It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.

Better stated than I did. He does have speed/decent baserunner but a very below average basestealer.