Terry Ryan PMKI in the SABR

[DPJ]

Agreed. He's been in charge of the drafts. Needs some of the blame.

Smith caught hell left and right but I've yet to see any blame going to the man running the drafts.

 

Johnson is the reason the Twins have no pitching, no depth and a middle of the road MiLB system.

[DaveW]

By bWAR, Capps has been equal to Wilson since the trade.

Are you making a point with this? Because as DPJ pointed out this is not even close to something that can excuse that trade.

But since I am bored...Salaries have been pointed out already.

 

-Ramos is still under team control for several more years and is still young.

-The Twins already had a capable closer in Rauch, and had Nathan coming back for the future. NTM closer is a rather easy position to fill.

-The Twins had no reason to trade from a position of weakness, Mauer still had injury issues at the time and you need to look no further than Drew Butera to see just who the Twins had on the depth chart behind Ramos.

 

That trade was awful then, and with each year looks more and more awful.

[Thrylos]

I am always curious if Thrylos is really a Twins fan. If you really are, WHY? I've not read a single thing from you that's positive; it seems you dislike everything about the organization. What is it about the Twins that keeps you interested?

 

I'm all for balanced evaluation and critique of the Twins, but that's not what we get from Thrylos.

I am a Twins fan and I want my team to win. So I am critical of people who are with the Twins (like Ryan and Gardenhire for example) who are not helping the team win. I think the Twins can do better. I hate what those people are doing to my team. Hope that explains it.

 

What you are saying is equivalent to if you do not like your President or your congressperson you are not an American...

[DaveW]

The more I think about it, the more absurd I think it is that people want to run Ryan out of town.

 

Its been a rough two years no doubt, but getting rid of a talented GM like Ryan is doing more harm than good (example: See what happened last time we lost Ryan)

You think people in Oakland are calling for Billy Beane's head since they have had a few rough years?

[DaveW]

I am a Twins fan and I want my team to win. So I am critical of people who are with the Twins (like Ryan and Gardenhire for example) who are not helping the team win. I think the Twins can do better. I hate what those people are doing to my team. Hope that explains it.

 

What you are saying is equivalent to if you do not like your President or your congressperson you are not an American...

Can you please explain to me how Ryan is not helping this team win? What exactly was he supposed to do this off-season to turn them into a power house? What was the Thrylos98 plan of attack? ( feel free to even use hindsight in your answer on this one)

 

Also, Gardy has his faults as well, but is still one of the better managers in the game, not sure exactly how he has kept this team from winning this year...unless you fault him for pitching injuries and his inability to teach Blackburn to throw 95 MPH heat.

[Thrylos]

The more I think about it, the more absurd I think it is that people want to run Ryan out of town.

 

Its been a rough two years no doubt, but getting rid of a talented GM like Ryan is doing more harm than good (example: See what happened last time we lost Ryan)

You think people in Oakland are calling for Billy Beane's head since they have had a few rough years?

All has to do with where you set the bar. If you accept mediocrity and are very happy with a few division wins here and there and one and outs in the postseason, then I do understand why thinking that Ryan/Gardenhire/etc are successful.

 

On the other hand if you set the bar higher, you do not think that they are successful. Look at what Boston did after a disappointing (for them) season to the GM and manager that brought World Series titles to town.

 

All a matter of perspective. Been long since 1991...

[DaveW]

All has to do with where you set the bar. If you accept mediocrity and are very happy with a few division wins here and there and one and outs in the postseason, then I do understand why thinking that Ryan/Gardenhire/etc are successful.

 

On the other hand if you set the bar higher, you do not think that they are successful. Look at what Boston did after a disappointing (for them) season to the GM and manager that brought World Series titles to town.

 

All a matter of perspective. Been long since 1991...

Are you saying the 2006 team didn't have enough talent to challenge or even be a favorite for a world series?

Heck, the only year I think the Twins were completely out matched heading into the playoffs was 2008, the rest of the years they had a solid enough roster where they SHOULD have been able to compete.

 

Hard to blame that on Ryan.

[JB_Iowa]

I don't think the remarks at SABR mean much of anything. BUT....

 

I do believe that this organization needs a big influx of new ideas, energy and talent. And I significantly doubt that will happen with TR at the helm.

 

The Twins had a good system that worked for a number of years with a low payroll team in a weak division. BUT they also seem to have fallen into a rut. And, if you look at the management staff of this organization, there is very little change.

 

Terry Ryan HAS to be invested (who wouldn't be?) in the "system" that he and TK developed in the early 2000's. But times change AND unless you bring in new energy and ideas, stagnation sets in.

 

Not all of the Twins management (front office and field staff) has to go. But someone with a fresh persepctive needs to be at the helm and deciding what to keep, what to modify and what to toss -- and doing it with respect to all aspects of the baseball operations (from scouting through minor leagues through coaching and managing through medical and training and more). I don't think that person is TR.

[gunnarthor]

Are you making a point with this? Because as DPJ pointed out this is not even close to something that can excuse that trade.

But since I am bored...Salaries have been pointed out already.

 

-Ramos is still under team control for several more years and is still young.

-The Twins already had a capable closer in Rauch, and had Nathan coming back for the future. NTM closer is a rather easy position to fill.

-The Twins had no reason to trade from a position of weakness, Mauer still had injury issues at the time and you need to look no further than Drew Butera to see just who the Twins had on the depth chart behind Ramos.

 

That trade was awful then, and with each year looks more and more awful.

Oh, hell, why not. John Sickels said of it at the time: Capps reinforces the Twins bullpen for the stretch run. Testa isn't a prospect, but Ramos definitely is. I have some misgivings about his bat due to his sketchy plate discipline, but his glove has really come around and his power potential remains impressive. I like him, but not enough to pan the trade from Minnesota's point of view; I think it is fair for both teams. In my Shadow Twins universe, I will make this trade.

 

To your points:

 

- Ramos is under team control but is hurt, a problem he always had. Baseball America noted that at the time of the trade: "The Twins had issues with his conditioning, and he's heavier than the above indicates. He's a base-clogger and well-below-average runner." They dropped him 30 spots in their prospect ranking after that. Twins fans seem to think Ramos is the second coming of Johnny Bench or something. He hits 8th in an NL lineup. In truth, he's a league avg catcher if he stays healthy. Washington Post was writing about his defensive regressions prior to his season ending injury.

- Twins dropped 10 games in standings in summer 2010 and bad bullpen was a major reason. Nathan wasn't coming back in 2010 (and really, he wasn't all that good at the start of 2011 either). Twins credited Capps with stabilizing the pen for them. Fangraphs noted that Capps was easily the Twins best bullpen arm.

- Catcher wasn't a position of weakness, they had a HOF caliber catcher making Ramos a nice luxury that a team in win-now mode didn't need.

 

As I pointed out, WAR value makes the trade a wash, although hopefully the Twins still move Capps for something this year.

[nicksaviking]

It thought the most baffling quote was:--robneyer ‏@robneyer When it comes to amateur pitchers, Terry Ryan not a big fan of change-ups and curveballs.-- What the hell does is that supposed to mean? The Twins jut about demand everyone in the system learn the change-up. Is he saying that he doesn't like pitchers to throw it BEFORE they come to the Twins so they can learn how to throw it the "right" way? Or is he saying he doesn't like the change-up but people within the organization circumvent his stratagy by teaching it to the kids anyway?

[silverslugger]

Unfortunately, I have a feeling the Pohlads think they already have the successor to Terry Ryan in the fold and his name is Wayne Krivsky. Ugh...just Ugh!!! I've been a Twins fan since the mid-70's as a young kid. Back then I couldn't wait to get my strib and my pi press and read the daily columns and sift through the box scores. I haven't gotten a paper delivered to my doorstep in over a decade, wouldn't think of it. I get almost all of my sports information off the internet and most of my Twins coverage from the blogosphere. I read some of the new age statistical stuff including much of the Bill James stuff as early as the late 80's. John Bonnes and Aaron Gleeman took my Twins information research into a new universe 5-7 years ago and now I more fully appreciate advanced metrics. It's time the Twins organization pulled their collective head out of their collective you know what and embraced the benefits of advanced research. And please, please, please...no Wayne Krivsky!!!

[Thrylos]

Are you saying the 2006 team didn't have enough talent to challenge or even be a favorite for a world series?

Heck, the only year I think the Twins were completely out matched heading into the playoffs was 2008, the rest of the years they had a solid enough roster where they SHOULD have been able to compete.

 

Hard to blame that on Ryan.

Then you blame it on Gardenhire. Do you?

[PseudoSABR]

Ramos will continue to play for the Nationals far longer then Capps will for the Twins and at far more inexpensive contract. Using WAR to compare a veteran traded for a prospect is totally disingenuous, and would look even more foolish if Ramos wasn't out for the season.

[gunnarthor]

It thought the most baffling quote was:--robneyer ‏@robneyer When it comes to amateur pitchers, Terry Ryan not a big fan of change-ups and curveballs.-- What the hell does is that supposed to mean? The Twins jut about demand everyone in the system learn the change-up. Is he saying that he doesn't like pitchers to throw it BEFORE they come to the Twins so they can learn how to throw it the "right" way? Or is he saying he doesn't like the change-up but people within the organization circumvent his stratagy by teaching it to the kids anyway?

Yeah, that was weird. I know we drafted Wimmers based on his change-up. Did it mean he thinks high school kids shouldn't be throwing curves? Or is more interested in fastball speed and control over other pitches?

[DaveW]

Then you blame it on Gardenhire. Do you?

Gardy deserves some blame, but bad luck, bad matchups (seriously, the Twins matched up terribly against the Yankees those years) and the players (see Hunter's mistake, hitting disappearing) share equal blame.

[DaveW]

Yeah, that was weird. I know we drafted Wimmers based on his change-up. Did it mean he thinks high school kids shouldn't be throwing curves? Or is more interested in fastball speed and control over other pitches?

I think he meant that curve balls/change ups can often be taught and refined in a big league organization, fastball, velocity and control etc can't so much be taught after the kid is done with high school/college.

[nicksaviking]

I think he meant that curve balls/change ups can often be taught and refined in a big league organization, fastball, velocity and control etc can't so much be taught after the kid is done with high school/college.

That's the best assumption from that strange quote. Of course he couldn't say it exactly as you put it becauset that has only been the Twins stratagy for about the last five minutets. Velocity was largely disregarded by this organization up until last year when the Twins finally jumped on the strikeout bandwagon and took a shot at Boer, Boyd, Williams, Hoey and Oliveros. Of course that quote was actually Neyer's, not Ryan's. Neyer may have translated it poorly. It wouldn't be the first time a reporter used Twitter as an excuse for a lax jounalistic effort.

[DaveW]

Of course that quote was actually Neyer's, not Ryan's. Neyer may have translated it poorly. It wouldn't be the first time a reporter used Twitter as an excuse for a lax jounalistic effort.

Also it was at a SABR conference, so Ryan may have been distracted from the stench from the folks who haven't left there parents basement fo the past year and the amount of neck-beards in the audience

[one_eyed_jack]

Gardy deserves some blame, but bad luck, bad matchups (seriously, the Twins matched up terribly against the Yankees those years) and the players (see Hunter's mistake, hitting disappearing) share equal blame.

---The Twins of the 00's often lacked the most crucial ingredient to postseason success - starting pitching depth. Beyond Santana, they were starting guys like Boof Bonser, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. That's fine for beating Kansas City in August, but beating the Yankees in October is a different story.

 

Injuries played a role as well. Morneau's absence in the last couple of series hurt - tough to win in October with your top run producer out.

 

As far as Gardy goes, I think the impact of the manager is too often overestimated. They get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. Look at the Giants in 2010. That was Bruce Bochy's 16th year as a major league manager. He hadn't really been any more successful than Gardy to that point in his career, maybe even a little less so. Yet the Giants won the World Series. Was that because Bochy figured it out after a decade-and-a-half? Or do you think maybe having a pitching staff full of guys who would be aces on a lot of teams may have had something to do with it?

[DaveW]

---The Twins of the 00's often lacked the most crucial ingredient to postseason success - starting pitching depth. Beyond Santana, they were starting guys like Boof Bonser, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. That's fine for beating Kansas City in August, but beating the Yankees in October is a different story.

 

Injuries played a role as well. Morneau's absence in the last couple of series hurt - tough to win in October with your top run producer out.

 

As far as Gardy goes, I think the impact of the manager is too often overestimated. They get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. Look at the Giants in 2010. That was Bruce Bochy's 16th year as a major league manager. He hadn't really been any more successful than Gardy to that point in his career, maybe even a little less so. Yet the Giants won the World Series. Was that because Bochy figured it out after a decade-and-a-half? Or do you think maybe having a pitching staff full of guys who would be aces on a lot of teams may have had something to do with it?

I mean, for the first few playoff series they had Radke in the rotation as well, a 1-2 of Santana and Radke was pretty solid in my opinion. Also guys like Silva (when he was good!) Loshe and Liriano all got starts as well. Again not the greatest rotation ever, but a Santana/Radke led rotation was solid enough to match up with other teams. It's really a shame Liriano got hurt in 2006, that was the team to beat.

 

I agree on Gardy, though he prob deserves some of the blame since the Twins have lost 11 in a row in the playoffs or something like that. However, I don't think he should be fired or anything.

[one_eyed_jack]

I mean, for the first few playoff series they had Radke in the rotation as well, a 1-2 of Santana and Radke was pretty solid in my opinion. Also guys like Silva (when he was good!) Loshe and Liriano all got starts as well. Again not the greatest rotation ever, but a Santana/Radke led rotation was solid enough to match up with other teams. It's really a shame Liriano got hurt in 2006, that was the team to beat.

 

I agree on Gardy, though he prob deserves some of the blame since the Twins have lost 11 in a row in the playoffs or something like that. However, I don't think he should be fired or anything.

---Yeah, Santana/Radke in the early part of the decade was a good 1-2 punch. In those years it always seemed like they were 1 big bat short of being a serious threat.

 

Agree on 2006, that was tough. Not only did Liriano get hurt, but Radke's pitching arm was barely attached to his body by the end of that year.

 

Maybe it's because it was the most recent, but to me 2010 was the most disappointing year. We had home field, time to set up our rotation the way we wanted, had a deep lineup, a great first season in a great new ballpark, it just seemed like it was going to be the year we finally broke through. We even had a 3-0 lead with Frankie cruising in Game 1 before it all went down the crapper.

[Riverbrian]

Yeah, these were some interesting quotes hand-picked out of context. Self-deprecating is a good thing... Terry Ryan has proven he can handle this job. He's made good moves this year. We all know that this isn't a one-year fix. He's good.

Seth, There is no way that someone would take a sentence or two from multiple sentences... Condense those words and surround them with their own words and use them to make their own point. That's just crazy talk!!! The Words are directly from Terry Ryan himself!!!

 

Do you have a lynch mob on standby that can be notified!!!

[TwinVike61]

Seth would take a sentence or two... Condense those words and surround them with their own words and use them to make crazy talk directly from Terry Ryan himself!!!

Wow, RiverBrian, you're right...it is easy to slander somebody...

[John Bonnes]

Gardy deserves some blame, but bad luck, bad matchups (seriously, the Twins matched up terribly against the Yankees those years) and the players (see Hunter's mistake, hitting disappearing) share equal blame.

Blink. Blink. I couldn't agree more with this sentence. It's like we share DNA. Like we're brothers. The 2012 version of The Parent Trap begins on a bulletin board....

[John Bonnes]

I'm not disagreeing that Smith was awful.

 

My point is that Ryan DID have something to do with how awful Smith was and how awful the Twins have been for the last two years. Ryan's not innocent, and Smith isn't completely to blame.

I was talking about this with the SABR guys last night.

 

As someone who was out of the organization but has a few contacts within it, and after seeing the ways Ryan has done things since becoming GM, I'm solidly in the camp that believes Ryan wasn't very influential - or even checked in - during the Smith regime.

 

Good leaders, when they turn over the reins but "stick around" do their utmost to NOT influence their successors - to give them a wide range and be as "absent" as possible. The new guy can't lead if everyone is still following the old guy. Ryan was, I think, a specialized scout (his true love) but one that didn't want to travel as much as a head scout might. And if he was in meetings where a big decision was made, I have to think he would consciously be the QUIETEST voice.

 

When Smith was running the show, if you heard grumbling going on in the organization, Ryan was never mentioned. Smith was running that show. And if you recall, when Ryan was named GM, he didn't even know what the budget was going to be - and that was a month into the offseason. Someone who is plugged into the organization's decisions has to know that stuff.

 

So I am very limited in directing blame towards Ryan for moves during the Smith regime.

[FrodaddyG]

Blink. Blink. I couldn't agree more with this sentence. It's like we share DNA. Like we're brothers. The 2012 version of The Parent Trap begins on a bulletin board....

Cue Dave's suicide watch.... now.

[John Bonnes]

Gems from Rob Neyer's twitter covering Ryans' speech. Actual quotes:

 

"I don't have the education. I don't have the intellect. I don't have the computer skills."

Ryan says Twins have struggled in Dominican Republic, and that it's his fault

"I haven't fixed a thing. We're exactly where we were last year."

 

This indicates to me that it is about time for the interim to resign and the Twins to actually get a GM who has the intellect, education and skills, to clear house on the organization from the top to the bottom and have this team compete in the 21st century. About freaking time...

I'm shocked - SHOCKED - to find that you think Terry Ryan should be fired. (

)

 

Thrylos, you know I respect the hell our of your passion and knowledge, but if you think anything about this is legitimate evidence, you know you're kidding yourself, right?

[John Bonnes]

Cue Dave's suicide watch.... now.

 

I'm THERE for you, brother!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Oh wow... at BYTO, this thread would have been moved to the other forum...

 

1) Ryan was at a SABR conference... He's a scouting guy. Those comments make perfect sense simply from that perspective. He has said in the past that the Twins have hired math guys to incorporate statistical analysis, but he freely admits to not being that guy... nothing wrong with that at all.

 

2) Are people seriously trying to argue that the Ramos/Capps trade was a push? Ramos could have never returned from his kidnapping this offseason and it would still be a heavy win for the Nats.

 

3) Like Dave and John said, Gardy deserves some blame here, but certainly not all. I look at 2004 in particular as that second game was horribly managed... but like others said, some of this is on the players too.

 

4) Ryan's big mistake in this org was that he had several crappy drafts leading up to his resignation. The organization was in a bit of a pinch. That said, I'd have much prefered he had handled the Santana negotiations, because as of right now, Santana netted us a decent relief prospect, John Rausch, a injury plagued season of JJ Hardy. Not many people were happy with that package, nor should they have been.

[Guest USAFChief]

I was talking about this with the SABR guys last night.

 

As someone who was out of the organization but has a few contacts within it, and after seeing the ways Ryan has done things since becoming GM, I'm solidly in the camp that believes Ryan wasn't very influential - or even checked in - during the Smith regime.

 

Good leaders, when they turn over the reins but "stick around" do their utmost to NOT influence their successors - to give them a wide range and be as "absent" as possible. The new guy can't lead if everyone is still following the old guy. Ryan was, I think, a specialized scout (his true love) but one that didn't want to travel as much as a head scout might. And if he was in meetings where a big decision was made, I have to think he would consciously be the QUIETEST voice.

 

When Smith was running the show, if you heard grumbling going on in the organization, Ryan was never mentioned. Smith was running that show. And if you recall, when Ryan was named GM, he didn't even know what the budget was going to be - and that was a month into the offseason. Someone who is plugged into the organization's decisions has to know that stuff.

 

So I am very limited in directing blame towards Ryan for moves during the Smith regime.

Great post.