Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[Hrbowski]

 

Already discussed Pujols upthread. Pujols was promoted after stints at A, A+ and then a very brief stay at AAA, all in one season, Sano has produced equivalent or superior numbers at the first two levels. Only way to find out for sure one way or another if Sano is ready, is to get him up to the Twins.

Pujols started his age 21 season at in the majors, and since Miguel was injured that pushed his development back a year, so Miguel is only a few months behind than Pujols. I don't think that Sano should come up unless he is mostly in the DH spot, and getting regular starts at third, I think it would be a bad idea to have him play right field or first.

[tobi0040]

Pujols started his age 21 season at in the majors, and since Miguel was injured that pushed his development back a year, so Miguel is only a few months behind than Pujols. I don't think that Sano should come up unless he is mostly in the DH spot, and getting regular starts at third, I think it would be a bad idea to have him play right field or first.

Not to mention, pujols is listed at 6-3 and 230 now. He has bulked up significantly since he was the rookie of the year 14 years ago. So the twins are more limited in our ability to move him around like the cards did pujols.

[Madre Dos]

During the 2011 Elizabethton Twins season, Eddie hit 21 HR and Miguel hit 20 HR.  The Elizabethton Twins only play a 68 game season.  The 2 of them combined hit more HR than 5 of the Appalachian league teams.  Add Kennys to the mix and you could be looking at a HR producing team.

[bird]

 

I saw the quotes, it certainly appeared that he was using Twins insiders as his source. He's not exactly my go-to guy for his Twins baseball expertise, his sources usually appear to be player agents, or "gift quotes" from Rob Antony, and perhaps on occasion, from Terry Ryan. Doesn't seem like a bad guy, but it does seem like he likes to hear the sound of his own voice.

 

 

I'm sorry jokin, I should have been clearer that I was talking about Sano's manager, Mientkiewicz, and not Doogie.

[jimbo92107]

I don't know if we'll see Sano up before the Twins trade Plouffe. Escobar remains the backup infielder.

 

Buxton's situation is much easier. DFA Robinson, plug Buxton in at CF for the next ten years. Hicks goes to whichever corner OF needs better defense, and the other OF goes to the other corner. Hunter becomes the 4th OF and part time DH. That was supposed to be the plan, right? At the moment I'd keep Rosario as the other OF opposite Hicks, but that could change depending on hitting trends.

 

The bear in the room is Joe Mauer. It would take soccer balls to DFA him and replace him with a combo of Vargas, Sano and maybe Max Kepler, but that's the future, folks. Mauer's bat doesn't profile at 1B at all, so he doesn't fit the team anymore. What Mauer should do is retire for a year to see if his brain fully heals, and if so, then try coming back about a year from now with a different team at 1B. Maybe then he'll develop that elusive power stroke and have five more years as a power hitting DH/1B with some lucky team.

 

Meanwhile, the future of this team is about young power bats at every position but shortstop and catcher. Why not start the full youth movement a week or two after the All Star game? It's fun watching them have a good start, but every pundit says this Twins team is an unsustainable statistical mirage. Okay, then let's get a head start on installing the Twins of 2016 and beyond, and that will be enough to keep butts in the seats for the rest of the season.

 

I'm okay with Sano and Buxton having their cold streaks at the plate. But when Sano catches a mistake hanging, then makes the baseball go far away, I want to see it on MLB.com, not the minor league network. When Buxton steals second and just keeps going to third, safe, I want to see that, too. I want to see Max Kepler doing what Joe Mauer wants to do at 1B - hit about .300 and bust some balls over the wall.

 

We've been waiting for the new kids for more than four years now. Turn some pages and let's start a big new chapter for the Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Me thinks that generally comparing prospects to hall of famers isn't wise.  Most teams don't have an HOF potential guy just sitting in their pipeline.  While Sano and Buxton look like they could be perennial all stars, I think it's wise to bring them up when they are ready and not after a few hot weeks in a small sample. 

 

As for Sano, he's not going to be able to be that 2 WAR player unless the team were to dump Mauer, or Sano could somehow figure out how to play C, CF, or SS. 

[Linus]

I am a believer that you need to go around the league twice to really know if a player's success is sustainable.  At that point, they've seen the other team's adjustments to their approach - if you still are hitting at that point, time to move on.

 

I didn't look it up but I assume the Lookouts have or will soon be twice around the league.  If so, I move both to Rochester soon, for sure by the end of the month.

 

Then, I give Vargas first crack at DHing with Arcia to follow if Vargas doesn't produce.  If Arcia doesn't produce and the Twins still have something to play for, then Sano comes up to DH and play a little third.

[Ncgo4]

This love of Plouffe/Hicks/Mauer is a complete mystery to me. Plouffe is a career .246 hitter and for the year is at .250. He's projected to hit about 20-25 HRs and maybe have 75 RBIs. Hicks is at .256 and is on target for about 5 HRs and maybe 20 RBIs. Mauer is ontarget to hit .250 with 6 HRs and about 80 RBIs. He may also lead the team in double plays.

 

None of these are players that cannot be replaced. Sano to 3rd, Hicks to center and Plouffe to first. There is no way whatsoever that this doesn't improve the lineup.

[tobi0040]

 

This love of Plouffe/Hicks/Mauer is a complete mystery to me. Plouffe is a career .246 hitter and for the year is at .250. He's projected to hit about 20-25 HRs and maybe have 75 RBIs. Hicks is at .256 and is on target for about 5 HRs and maybe 20 RBIs. Mauer is ontarget to hit .250 with 6 HRs and about 80 RBIs. He may also lead the team in double plays.

None of these are players that cannot be replaced. Sano to 3rd, Hicks to center and Plouffe to first. There is no way whatsoever that this doesn't improve the lineup.

 

Plouffe is second on the team (among regulars) with a .765 OPS and we would take a huge step back defensively by replacing his glove at 3B with Sano.  Sano is on pace for about 40 errors this year while Trevor is on pace for 15, in addition to Trevor getting to more balls.  Trevor was a 3.5 WAR player last year.  The lack of respect this guy gets is astonishing to me.

 

Mauer is not being benched.  It just is not happening.  He is owed about $100M over the next 3.5 years and has a career .850 OPS.

 

[Mike Sixel]

20 HR is A LOT OF HR in this day and age. Plouffe is still a top 10 3B in all of baseball this year, even with his slump. He was top 10 last year.

 

I agree on Hicks and Mauer......

 

If you are going to have Sano and Plouffe in the lineup, I'd leave Plouffe at 3B, since he is playing good D right now......no need to weaken the defense. And, I'd love Sano at 1B right now, but the Twins don't have the guts to bench Joe.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Plouffe is second on the team (among regulars) with a .765 OPS and we would take a huge step back defensively by replacing his glove at 3B with Sano.  Sano is on pace for about 40 errors this year while Trevor is on pace for 15, in addition to Trevor getting to more balls.  Trevor was a 3.5 WAR player last year.  The lack of respect this guy gets is astonishing to me.

 

Mauer is not being benched.  It just is not happening.  He is owed about $100M over the next 3.5 years and has a career .850 OPS.

 

No idea why people spout someone's career numbers, when they are clearly in decline.......by that logic, you'd never replace anyone that used to be good.

[tobi0040]

 

No idea why people spout someone's career numbers, when they are clearly in decline.......by that logic, you'd never replace anyone that used to be good.

 

Those career numbers tell the story of why he won't be replaced (in addition to salary).  No?

[tobi0040]

 

20 HR is A LOT OF HR in this day and age. Plouffe is still a top 10 3B in all of baseball this year, even with his slump. He was top 10 last year.

 

I agree on Hicks and Mauer......

 

If you are going to have Sano and Plouffe in the lineup, I'd leave Plouffe at 3B, since he is playing good D right now......no need to weaken the defense. And, I'd love Sano at 1B right now, but the Twins don't have the guts to bench Joe.

 

I would say Plouffe at 3B, Mauer at 1B, Sano at DH (in about 2-4 weeks) and send Sano to winter ball to play 3B if we think he can play there.  By all comments we do.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Those career numbers tell the story of why he won't be replaced (in addition to salary).  No?

 

Ah, well, I think the salary and the idolization tell the story, but yes, I agree, he won't be benched any time soon.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Thought game...

If Plouffe stays a top 10 3B, do you move Sano to a new position , trade Plouffe, keep Sano down until Plouffe is no longer good?

I'm a lot more conservative than most when it comes to bringing up guys from the minors:

 

Keep both on the team, at their current positions.  I wouldn't move anyone until I'm absolutely certain Sano can handle the big league job. 

[jokin]

Me thinks that generally comparing prospects to hall of famers isn't wise.  Most teams don't have an HOF potential guy just sitting in their pipeline.  While Sano and Buxton look like they could be perennial all stars, I think it's wise to bring them up when they are ready and not after a few hot weeks in a small sample. 

 

As for Sano, he's not going to be able to be that 2 WAR player unless the team were to dump Mauer, or Sano could somehow figure out how to play C, CF, or SS.

Except it's actually been more than "a few weeks". It's now going into its 7th week- some 151 PAs. Here's the updated slash line update from April 30 through June 11:

 

.302/.384/.574/(.938) ISO .272 BB% 12% K% 23% wOBA .429

 

The ISO is the only number slightly below career norms, but he's a qualitatively better hitter overall vs. 2013, even using the full season stats.

 

 

 

And again, when can we stop with the HOF strawmen arguments? It seems only in Minnesota would many continue to think that the #1 and #6 prospects are such fragile little flowers who might permanently wilt- the Twins FO is actually believing they're closer to being ready than many on TD. Sano was a SS coming up, he's as athletic as an oversized 22 year old baseball player can possibly be. He doesn't have Aaron Hicks' delicate psyche. He's demonstrably overcome much of the rust from the 18 month layoff. Time to find out if he's ready for the next step, there really is no downside to him DHing and playing occasionally at 3rd- give him a shot for 15 days and then re-evaluate.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Those career numbers tell the story of why he won't be replaced (in addition to salary).  No?

 

They ignore a ton of context.  Players don't put up the same numbers season after season.  They usually struggle for a couple years before figuring out the majors.  Have some good seasons in their peak, and decline as they get old.  That doesn't account for things like injuries. 

 

Mauer's career isn't indicative of his future performance at this point b/c he's in decline.  Plouffe's career numbers aren't indicative of his future performance in large part b/c of his struggles when he first came up.  Sano's career numbers only indicate potential, and are most definitely not a benchmark that we can use to predict his ML career. 

 

I want Sano in the majors too, but right now, there really isn't a spot for him.  There's no way he should be replacing Plouffe.  Like it or not, Mauer isn't moving back to C, and DH is (rightfully) Vargas' for now and probably Arcia after that, both of whom have stronger cases for the position. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Except it's actually been more than "a few weeks". It's now going into its 7th week- some 151 PAs. Here's the updated slash line update from April 30 through June 11:

.302/.384/.574/(.938) ISO .272 BB% 12% K% 23% wOBA .429

The ISO is the only number slightly below career norms, but he's a qualitatively better hitter overall vs. 2013, even using the full season stats.



And again, when can we stop with the HOF strawmen arguments? It seems only in Minnesota would many continue to think that the #1 and #6 prospects are such fragile little flowers who might permanently wilt- the Twins FO is actually believing they're closer to being ready than many on TD. Sano was a SS coming up, he's as athletic as an oversized 22 year old baseball player can possibly be. He doesn't have Aaron Hicks' delicate psyche. He's demonstrably overcome much of the rust from the 18 month layoff. Time to find out if he's ready for the next step, there really is no downside to him DHing and playing occasionally at 3rd- give him a shot for 15 days and then re-evaluate.

 

Unfortunately, the season isn't 7 weeks long.  And while I suspect (and agree) that Sano will be in AAA shortly, I have no problems with this approach. 

 

As for the HOF straw man arguments, I think they stop when people stop saying 'hey, this worked for Pujols' or 'hey, this worked for Randy Johnson' therefore it should work for our player.  Not quite sure how you view that as a straw man.  It's really a terrible idea to base development decisions on how a hall of famer progressed.  There are tons of people that look really good in the minors.  Many never make it to the majors.  This has nothing to do with them being 'fragile little flowers' (speaking of straw men...) but rather what makes sense for their development. I think the mistake here is underestimating just how much development needs to go into a player between their draft/signing and their major league debut.

[tobi0040]

 

They ignore a ton of context.  Players don't put up the same numbers season after season.  They usually struggle for a couple years before figuring out the majors.  Have some good seasons in their peak, and decline as they get old.  That doesn't account for things like injuries. 

 

Mauer's career isn't indicative of his future performance at this point b/c he's in decline.  Plouffe's career numbers aren't indicative of his future performance in large part b/c of his struggles when he first came up.  Sano's career numbers only indicate potential, and are most definitely not a benchmark that we can use to predict his ML career. 

 

I want Sano in the majors too, but right now, there really isn't a spot for him.  There's no way he should be replacing Plouffe.  Like it or not, Mauer isn't moving back to C, and DH is (rightfully) Vargas' for now and probably Arcia after that, both of whom have stronger cases for the position. 

 

If we are within 5 games of first place in about 4-6 weeks I would bring up Sano and platoon the DH spot between Arcia and Sano. I would play Sano at 3B twice a week as well (sitting Plouffe once and Mauer one with Plouffe at 1B when Mauer sits).  Arcia has a career OPS in the .800 range against righties and Sano has hit lefties better in the minors (which means his OPS against them is probably in the 900+ range.  The guy that does not start is your bench bat. 

 

Fangraphs has our DH position at an OPS of .693, 11th in the AL. That dramatically improves.  Sano sees at bats 4 days a week, plays 3B twice a week and plays winter ball.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If we are within 5 games of first place in about 4-6 weeks I would bring up Sano and platoon the DH spot between Arcia and Sano. I would play Sano at 3B twice a week as well (sitting Plouffe once and Mauer one with Plouffe at 1B when Mauer sits).  Arcia has a career OPS in the .800 range against righties and Sano has hit lefties better in the minors (which means his OPS against them is probably in the 900+ range.  The guy that does not start is your bench bat. 

 

Fangraphs has our DH position at an OPS of .693, 11th in the AL. That dramatically improves.  Sano sees at bats 4 days a week, plays 3B twice a week and plays winter ball.

 

I could definitely see something like that.  It sacrifices development for win now, but not a bad option.  I agree DH has been, but I also think at this point it belongs to Vargas.  He was hitting well right before his demotion and was destroying AAA pitching in albeit a small sample.  I think he deserves the right to earn the job.  If he doesn't, then by all means, platoon if they are still doing well.  Otherwise, I'd probably let Arcia back at it when he figures things out. 

[jokin]

I could definitely see something like that.  It sacrifices development for win now, but not a bad option.  I agree DH has been, but I also think at this point it belongs to Vargas.  He was hitting well right before his demotion and was destroying AAA pitching in albeit a small sample.  I think he deserves the right to earn the job.  If he doesn't, then by all means, platoon if they are still doing well.  Otherwise, I'd probably let Arcia back at it when he figures things out.

Vargas went down for reasons that those on the outside will never know for certain. It was an obviously odd move at the time, and by exposing the glaring lack of offensive depth in the wake of the move, only served to magnify how unsustainable the winning ways will be by maintaining the status quo. Interesting that you fully embrace a small sample on Vargas, but dismiss a much larger sample from the much better prospect.

 

I think the proponents for Sano, fully accept the "development for win now" sacrfice. I don't see the issue in what significantly more development will be gained by keeping Sano down for much longer, but I do see the potential opportunity cost in not doing so, for the Twins as a team. The Twins are in the midst of a cruel June, even if/when the hitting turns around a bit, there's no guarantee the recent level of performance from the SP staff can be maintained. Waiting to promote August 1 may be too late.

[jokin]

Unfortunately, the season isn't 7 weeks long.  And while I suspect (and agree) that Sano will be in AAA shortly, I have no problems with this approach. 

 

As for the HOF straw man arguments, I think they stop when people stop saying 'hey, this worked for Pujols' or 'hey, this worked for Randy Johnson' therefore it should work for our player.  Not quite sure how you view that as a straw man.  It's really a terrible idea to base development decisions on how a hall of famer progressed.  There are tons of people that look really good in the minors.  Many never make it to the majors.  This has nothing to do with them being 'fragile little flowers' (speaking of straw men...) but rather what makes sense for their development. I think the mistake here is underestimating just how much development needs to go into a player between their draft/signing and their major league debut.

The "fragile flowers" comment refers to the constant worry on TD by relating everything back to the Aaron Hicks "called up too soon" debacle. Santana was called up last year with the same types of pressure as Hicks and yet had a sustained run of outstanding production. Neither Santana or Hicks are the types of prospects that Sano and Buxton are. But the Twins didn't know for sure on either Hicks or Santana until they threw them in the deep end of the pool.

 

And when using comps with elite top prospects, inevitably, some comps will be from other players who were previously elite top prospects. Only a few of the comps in this thread were from HOFers. When the comparable MiLB numbers compare favorably for Sano and Buxton relative to other elite prospects, that's the only data we can work from. But on using those comparisons as a tool and a guide, I don't believe anyone is claiming that either of them are guaranteed to duplicate their respective rookie season comps, let alone other elite prospects' HOF careers. But rather, to recognize that Sano and Buxton are hands down the most talented position players in the entire Twins system. (Based on this comment of yours: "There are tons of people that look really good in the minors."... you seem to be in the small minority who still think that either or both retain a relatively high probability of bust. Most professional analysts agree that the floor is much higher than that).

 

And at this point given the Twins current situation, every wide latitude towards an early opportunity to make good on that universally-accepted (and demonstrated) evaluation of their talent, needs to be considered as the possible best difference-making decision for a club still in the midst of a pennant race.

[tobi0040]

 

Vargas went down for reasons that those on the outside will never know for certain. It was an obviously odd move at the time, and by exposing the glaring lack of offensive depth in the wake of the move, only served to magnify how unsustainable the winning ways will be by maintaining the status quo. Interesting that you fully embrace a small sample on Vargas, but dismiss a much larger sample from the much better prospect.

I think the proponents for Sano, fully accept the "development for win now" sacrfice. I don't see the issue in what significantly more development will be gained by keeping Sano down for much longer, but I do see the potential opportunity cost in not doing so, for the Twins as a team. The Twins are in the midst of a cruel June, even if the hitting turns around a bit, there's no guarantee the recent level of performance from the SP staff can be maintained. Waiting to promote August 1 may be too late.

 

I would argue the plan I laid out sacrifices very little if anyting from a development perspective. 

 

If Sano comes up in 4-6 weeks, he would have played 75-90 or so games in AA, all seeing reps at 3B. Then he sees two more games a week at 3B  (20) and bats another 40.  Then goes to winter ball for another 25-30 games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am a believer that you need to go around the league twice to really know if a player's success is sustainable.  At that point, they've seen the other team's adjustments to their approach - if you still are hitting at that point, time to move on.

 

I didn't look it up but I assume the Lookouts have or will soon be twice around the league.  If so, I move both to Rochester soon, for sure by the end of the month.

It's only a 10 team league, and they play most of their games within their 5 team division.  (For example, they don't see Pensacola from the other division at all until the last week of July.)

 

So, they've already played at least two series with each team in their division.  (And a series is generally 5 games long, so you probably don't need multiple ones to make adjustments.)

[jokin]

I would argue the plan I laid out sacrifices very little if anyting from a development perspective. 

 

If Sano comes up in 4-6 weeks, he would have played 75-90 or so games in AA, all seeing reps at 3B. Then he sees two more games a week at 3B  (20) and bats another 40.  Then goes to winter ball for another 25-30 games.

Yep. Jim and I noted the same type of scenario upthread. And you're absolutely right, if handled with careful thought, the "sacrifice" in the field is actually minimal. And really, is there still doubt that he couldn't play RF better than Arcia, on a part-time basis, if the Twins were to choose to go that route? This really shouldn't be that difficult of a decision.

[Ncgo4]

The real unknown in this is just how deeply and how quickly the Twins go into the tank. They could break out of the slump and retake the best record in the East. But it is also possible that they go into a protracted period of 2-8, 3-7 & 4-6 ten game streaks.

 

Where the Twins go, and if down, how quickly will determine how much pressure management will feel to move on with the children. If they were to lose another 5 or 6 in a row the volume will be deafening! If poor attendance become no attendance, ownership will finally make themselves heard.

[Ncgo4]

Best record in the "American", not East.

[jharaldson]

 

Me thinks that generally comparing prospects to hall of famers isn't wise.  Most teams don't have an HOF potential guy just sitting in their pipeline.  While Sano and Buxton look like they could be perennial all stars, I think it's wise to bring them up when they are ready and not after a few hot weeks in a small sample. 

 

As for Sano, he's not going to be able to be that 2 WAR player unless the team were to dump Mauer, or Sano could somehow figure out how to play C, CF, or SS. 

 

In my defense when I comped a pathway to the majors for Sano to one that was used for Pujols I focused on the strategy of not dedicating a single position to a high upside prospect but instead letting them float over a number of different positions in order to keep their bat in the lineup.  I would say that nothing in that strategy requires Hall of Fame talent, it is just a mechanism to get a talented player time in the field when a single position is not open to them.

[jokin]

 

In my defense when I comped a pathway to the majors for Sano to one that was used for Pujols I focused on the strategy of not dedicating a single position to a high upside prospect but instead letting them float over a number of different positions in order to keep their bat in the lineup.  I would say that nothing in that strategy requires Hall of Fame talent, it is just a mechanism to get a talented player time in the field when a single position is not open to them.

 

You violated one of TD's "unwritten rules"  (here revealed in print for the first time)-

 

"Thou shalt never mention any past or future HOF caliber player in the same post as any Twins prospect, despite in no way implying that said player is the next <insert HOFer here>, and also as well-   no mention can be made-  no matter how logical the context one might use to make said comparison for purposes of promoting the MLB-rated Twins #2 best farm system, and from among which, the    best available talent to rapidly advance to the major league lineup/roster over the current veteran litany of castoffs, retreads, less-abled, as well as, the group of never-weres or never-will-bes."

[jokin]

Sano hits his 12th HR today to go with a BB and a K.

 

He continues his hot hand and steadily increasing power- his BA for June is .300, with an OPS of .983. (Who's the next guy to suddenly go on the Twins DL that might create an instant opening on the 25-man?)