2016 Election Thread

[DaveW]

 

 three outsiders are leading the field. It won't last, but it is fun to see the law of unintended consequences once again rearing its ugly head.

I almost feel bad for Jeb at this point, he seems like such a lifeless, boring goober out there. I see why George W was the "golden child" who got the nomination back in the day, what George lacks in intellegnce vs his brother Jeb, he makes it up 10x in charisma.

 

 

[mikecgrimes]

 

I almost feel bad for Jeb at this point, he seems like such a lifeless, boring goober out there. I see why George W was the "golden child" who got the nomination back in the day, what George lacks in intellegnce vs his brother Jeb, he makes it up 10x in charisma.

 

Jeb's sitting pretty, while Fiorina has a real shot at nominee if nothing from her past that isn't already known comes up Trump and Carson really don't.  The fact that without lifting a finger Bush has eliminated Scott Walker is huge.  Unless Ted Cruz can win this thing it's down to a three way race in my mind between Bush Rubio and Fiorina who has yet to be fully vetted.

[stringer bell]

Rubio might be the GOP's best hope. I don't know, but I think Bush has baggage and Fiorina just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

[DaveW]

 

Rubio might be the GOP's best hope. I don't know, but I think Bush has baggage and Fiorina just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Rubio has zero chance to win the general election. Zero.

[Willihammer]

Jeb's sitting pretty, while Fiorina has a real shot at nominee if nothing from her past that isn't already known comes up Trump and Carson really don't.  The fact that without lifting a finger Bush has eliminated Scott Walker is huge.  Unless Ted Cruz can win this thing it's down to a three way race in my mind between Bush Rubio and Fiorina who has yet to be fully vetted.

Walker was polling like 1/2 a percent.

 

I love how he said he was "leading" by dropping out. What a douche.

[Shane Wahl]

Lying about fetuses on a table is a pretty *interesting* lie. And she just doubled down on it when asked about it later.

 

anyway, leaving you folks alone . . .

[mikecgrimes]

 

Rubio has zero chance to win the general election. Zero.

 

You willing to stand by that even if Clinton is the nominee?  I'd give Biden a slight edge over Rubio but would consider Rubio a strong favorite over Clinton.  Don't worry it won't be Clinton.

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

Walker was polling like 1/2 a percent.

I love how he said he was "leading" by dropping out. What a douche.

 

I don't know why the media doesn't ever release side by side polls of this date in 2012.  I suppose they like to present the latest polls as if they matter.  Walker was among 5 or 6 that still had a shot at the nomination no matter where his poll numbers were.  

 

As for the leading comment it was a bit of spin sure, but you would think someone like Chris Christie would get the message.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Lying about fetuses on a table is a pretty *interesting* lie. And she just doubled down on it when asked about it later.

 

anyway, leaving you folks alone . . .

 

How different is that then lying about what minimum wage increases do?  Both are pandering to those who don't know better.  That's politics.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How different is that then lying about what minimum wage increases do?  Both are pandering to those who don't know better.  That's politics.

 

we don't know what raising the minimum wage everywhere would do for sure.....that's a prediction of the future. What she lied about is a fact about the past.

 

Those couldn't be more different than each other, could they?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Lying about fetuses on a table is a pretty *interesting* lie. And she just doubled down on it when asked about it later.

 

anyway, leaving you folks alone . . .

 

I'll definitely agree it was an aggressive lie.

[mikecgrimes]

 

we don't know what raising the minimum wage everywhere would do for sure.....that's a prediction of the future. What she lied about is a fact about the past.

 

Those couldn't be more different than each other, could they?

 

There's a sliver of possibility that minimum wages do create a multiplier effect that allows them to be a net positive.  It's just really odd that those that count on that being true don't want to even discuss why they aren't willing to raise it to $50 an hour.  

[USAFChief]

You willing to stand by that even if Clinton is the nominee?  I'd give Biden a slight edge over Rubio but would consider Rubio a strong favorite over Clinton.  Don't worry it won't be Clinton.

I'll wager a beer right now Clinton is the next president. Deal?

[ashbury]

I'll wager a beer right now Clinton is the next president. Deal?

Presidente style.

 

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2015/05/22/us/22FIRSTDRAFT-Hillary/22FIRSTDRAFT-Hillary-tmagArticle.jpg

[Shane Wahl]

 

I'll wager a beer right now Clinton is the next president. Deal?

 

In July 2007 I made that bet with somebody. This time there isn't any kind of Obama type involved though. That said, the Clinton campaign still cannot figure it out.

 

[mikecgrimes]

 

I'll wager a beer right now Clinton is the next president. Deal?

 

I don't drink, but if she does win I'll buy you two beers.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I'll wager a beer right now Clinton is the next president. Deal?

Default wins over the unelectable. I don't like her, but I think she wins the willing-to-live-with-her majority by rather wide margins. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's a sliver of possibility that minimum wages do create a multiplier effect that allows them to be a net positive.  It's just really odd that those that count on that being true don't want to even discuss why they aren't willing to raise it to $50 an hour.  

 

Because that's not a realistic idea at all, so why bother?

 

I, for one, am glad that people fought over the years so I didn't have to work 7 days a week, for almost no pay, and that we get vacation and sick time. The shortness of our collective memories is sad, but a logical outcome of dumbing down schools and teaching only "America is awesome" in schools.

[DaveW]

 

 but a logical outcome of dumbing down schools and teaching only "America is awesome" in schools.

I can't like this enough.

 

Off topic, but the pledge of allegiance everyday in the classroom needs to go. Ditto with the star spangled banner before every single sporting event (even the NFL draft....ugh) and don't even get me started on God Bless America during the 7th inning of every freaking Yankees game.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, the anthem should go. Heck, a very lager percent of the Twins are not from this nation.....it serves no purpose other than, um, I have no idea. We don't need MORE nationalism.

[DaveW]

 

You willing to stand by that even if Clinton is the nominee?  I'd give Biden a slight edge over Rubio but would consider Rubio a strong favorite over Clinton.  Don't worry it won't be Clinton.

I will give you 20:1 odds that Rubio won't be the next president of the united states. $10 to win $200, which I will gladly pay right before I leave the US for Canada.

[DaveW]

 

I agree, the anthem should go. Heck, a very lager percent of the Twins are not from this nation.....it serves no purpose other than, um, I have no idea. We don't need MORE nationalism.

All the pledge of alleginace, star spangeled and God Bless America achieves is creating more xenophobia in an age where the US (and world) could really, really, really use a lot less.

If you want to have it (Star Spangeled Banner) played on opening day, Super Bowl, Olympics,the world series and the 4th of July? Fine by me, but from every freaking game? No.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Because that's not a realistic idea at all, so why bother?

 

I, for one, am glad that people fought over the years so I didn't have to work 7 days a week, for almost no pay, and that we get vacation and sick time. The shortness of our collective memories is sad, but a logical outcome of dumbing down schools and teaching only "America is awesome" in schools.

 

If minimum wages do work (they don't) then there is nothing unrealilistic about it.  You can't have it both ways.  Or if you think you can you can do the proper economic work to find the exact right minimum wage to the penny, cause round #'s are what panderers come up with.

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

I will give you 20:1 odds that Rubio won't be the next president of the united states. $10 to win $200, which I will gladly pay right before I leave the US for Canada.

 

The betting markets have Rubio at 17 cents, go ahead and put up your $200 and win about $240

[DaveW]

The betting markets have Rubio at 17 cents, go ahead and put up your $200 and win about $240

Uh no

 

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

Odds as of September 20 at Bovada

Hillary Clinton +150

Jeb Bush +450

Donald Trump +500

Joe Biden +800

Bernie Sanders +1000

Marco Rubio +1400

Scott Walker +2000

Carly Fiorina +2500

John Kasich +2500

Ben Carson +3000

Ted Cruz +4000

Chris Christie +5000

Elizabeth Warren +10000

Rand Paul +10000

Martin O'Malley +10000

Jim Webb +25000

Rick Perry +25000

Bobby Jindal +25000

[TheLeviathan]

We don't teach "America is Awesome", but our curriculum would have you either teach "California is awesome" or "Texas is awesome" depending upon where it is made.  

 

Our education system is challenging students at an unprecedented rate, the problem is the rest of the world is pushing even harder.  And they can push harder because your average American doesn't invest in education with their children and wants teachers to be magical wizards that solve all problems for a fraction of the rate they'd pay a babysitter to watch a movie with their kid.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Uh no

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of September 20 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton +150
Jeb Bush +450
Donald Trump +500
Joe Biden +800
Bernie Sanders +1000
Marco Rubio +1400
Scott Walker +2000
Carly Fiorina +2500
John Kasich +2500
Ben Carson +3000
Ted Cruz +4000
Chris Christie +5000
Elizabeth Warren +10000
Rand Paul +10000
Martin O'Malley +10000
Jim Webb +25000
Rick Perry +25000
Bobby Jindal +25000

 

Betting markets tend to settle at a truer price, but odds can be all over the map on things like this.  He's a long shot because it's a 2 step process and there is a good chance his opponent won't be Clinton.  If he and Clinton win the nomination he's even money at worst.

[DaveW]

 

Betting markets tend to settle at a truer price, but odds can be all over the map on things like this.  He's a long shot because it's a 2 step process and there is a good chance his opponent won't be Clinton.  If he and Clinton win the nomination he's even money at worst.

Hilary is -300 to win the Dem nomination. There isn't a "good" chance that his opponent won't be Clinton, nearly every expert states this.

[mikecgrimes]

Wouldn't a 33% variable shift a long shots odds significantly?  I guess if you don't think Clinton is flawed you might disagree.  Watch the betting markets, not overseas casinos willing to make easy money.

[Mike Sixel]

I doubt you'll find anyone here that thinks Clinton isn't flawed......I'd bet all my money on that, actually.