Joe Mauer's new approach

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm too lazy to look up his first pitch swing percentage but my eyes tell me he's swinging more often in first pitch situations, including a critical AB last night to drive home two runs in the eleventh.

 

SSS obviously applies.

 

2014 AVG/SLG:

Pull: .173/.235

Center: .364/.426

Opposite: .436/.638

 

2015 AVG/SLG:
Pull: .409/.455
Center: .474/.579
Opposite: .133/.267

 

He has basically reversed his numbers from 2014.

[Physics Guy]

Those numbers seem pretty logical since teams have been shifting on him.    For the past couple of years the book seems to say to play him pull in the IF and opposite in the OF.    This would make it much harder for him to get the hits to LF and CF like he used to.    The concerted effort Bruno is making to get him to pull the ball on occasion seems to be working.

[Parker Hageman]

Mauer first-pitch swing%:

 

2012: 7.8% - .462 BA

2013: 7.7% - .533 BA

2014: 12.3% - .577 BA

2015: 15.2% - .333 BA

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thanks, Parker. So he has doubled his first pitch swing percentage over a two year period.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think Mauer has been and still is one of the smarter hitters in the game. He's shown a willingness in the small sample of this season to pull the ball to beat the shift, and to start swinging at the first good pitch he sees because pitchers have been conditioned to get ahead on him early.

 

He's trained the league to throw him meatballs!  

 

It's still really early, but he's looked like his old self more often than not. It remains to be seen if he will start hitting some over the fence again, but it does look like he's making solid contact regularly.

[mnfireman]

Joe Mauer is 10x the hitter Bruno was. Bruno might have suggested it (a couple years ago even), but until Mauer wanted to pull the ball, he wasn't going to. Last seasons performance may have finally made it click in his head that he needed to pull the ball more, or perhaps he began working on it last year and struggled in the transition, but it seems to be paying off this year.

He also has his legs back under him this year, and a clear head (remember Morneau's struggles after his last concussion).

He's 2-6 swinging at the first pitch this year (not counting foul balls), 128-291 (.440) in his career.

[Dantes929]

 

Mauer first-pitch swing%:

 

2012: 7.8% - .462 BA

2013: 7.7% - .533 BA

2014: 12.3% - .577 BA

2015: 15.2% - .333 BA

Looks like 12.3% is  his wheelhouse.     When the right fielder is playing in right center and the center fielder is playing in left center and he hits a triple into center field does that count as pulling the ball since it went between the center fielder and right fielder?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Looks like 12.3% is  his wheelhouse.     When the right fielder is playing in right center and the center fielder is playing in left center and he hits a triple into center field does that count as pulling the ball since it went between the center fielder and right fielder?

Fangraphs has that hit listed as center.

[Seth Stohs]

I think he's been pulling the ball a ton more so far this year. Not just a little bit, or a small adjustment, but it's a huge thing. I think it can be a good thing... I mean, yesterday, he had the double to left-center and a triple to right-center. That's impressive. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Can we pause a moment and recognize what Joe is doing - completely transforming his approach in the face of what was his least productive year and one where defenses had seemingly solved him.

 

How many hitters can completely transform themselves - particularly at this stage of their career.  This is how some players are able to extend their careers while others flame out.   This is truly a great sign for Twins fans.  

[bird]

 

My eyes are telling me he's looking to hit the ball when runners are on base. In the past, they told me he'd be just as content coaxing a walk in that situation.

[Dantes929]

 

Can we pause a moment and recognize what Joe is doing - completely transforming his approach in the face of what was his least productive year and one where defenses had seemingly solved him.

 

How many hitters can completely transform themselves - particularly at this stage of their career.  This is how some players are able to extend their careers while others flame out.   This is truly a great sign for Twins fans.  

This is just my opinion but I don't think last year was a case of defenses "solving" him.   They put the shifts on and pitched him on the outside corner which most years would have been ideal for him because he always squared those pitches up at a very high rate, shift or no shift.    Last year in the first half he tried to pull those pitches which resulted in a lot of weak grounders to the right side.   2nd half he hit it harder even though into the shift with much better results.     Now it does look like he changed his mechanics slightly but it also looks like he is much stronger.   I am fine with him pulling the ball more, I just don't think he needs to.     I think the concussion was the biggest factor last year.   I don't think it matters where he hits it as long as he is back to squaring it up at a high rate.  That is what makes him special.  

[USAFChief]

This is just my opinion but I don't think last year was a case of defenses "solving" him. They put the shifts on and pitched him on the outside corner which most years would have been ideal for him because he always squared those pitches up at a very high rate, shift or no shift. Last year in the first half he tried to pull those pitches which resulted in a lot of weak grounders to the right side. 2nd half he hit it harder even though into the shift with much better results. Now it does look like he changed his mechanics slightly but it also looks like he is much stronger. I am fine with him pulling the ball more, I just don't think he needs to. I think the concussion was the biggest factor last year. I don't think it matters where he hits it as long as he is back to squaring it up at a high rate. That is what makes him special.

it's very difficult to hit for power without pulling the ball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can we pause a moment and recognize what Joe is doing - completely transforming his approach in the face of what was his least productive year and one where defenses had seemingly solved him.

 

How many hitters can completely transform themselves - particularly at this stage of their career.  This is how some players are able to extend their careers while others flame out.   This is truly a great sign for Twins fans.  

Hold it now -- "complete transformation"?

 

From B-Ref:

 

2015 (57 balls in play): 18% pulled, 72% up the middle, 11% opposite field, 46% grounders

 

Career (4173 BIP): 18% pulled, 61% up the middle, 25% opposite field, 52% grounders

 

I don't doubt he's making adjustments, but I think it falls somewhat shy of "complete transformation" that's worth of a pause and recognition at this point.  He's faced a small subset of the teams/pitchers/parks he will face over the full season, and he's within 2-4 events of 2014 or career marks in most measurements.

[Parker Hageman]

I think he's been pulling the ball a ton more so far this year. Not just a little bit, or a small adjustment, but it's a huge thing.

 

 

Mauer's Pull%/Line Drive%:

2011 - 28.5%/14.9%

2012 - 34.9%/12.4%

2013 - 32.7%/12.0%

2014 - 23.5%/16.5%

2015 - 40.4%/43.5%

 

(Interestingly enough, while he has more line drives ESPN/TruMedia data says he has had a lower well-hit average overall on pitches he has pulled.)

 

Oppo%

2011 - 37.7%

2012 - 33.8%

2013 - 34.9%

2014 - 40.2%

2015 - 29.8%

 

I asked him this spring why he feels like he can turn on the inside pitch better and his response was increased flexibility after recovering from injury. That completely makes sense. 

 

[jokin]

 

Hold it now -- "complete transformation"?

 

From B-Ref:

 

2015 (57 balls in play): 18% pulled, 72% up the middle, 11% opposite field, 46% grounders

 

Career (4173 BIP): 18% pulled, 61% up the middle, 25% opposite field, 52% grounders

 

I don't doubt he's making adjustments, but I think it falls somewhat shy of "complete transformation" that's worth of a pause and recognition at this point.  He's faced a small subset of the teams/pitchers/parks he will face over the full season, and he's within 2-4 events of 2014 or career marks in most measurements.

 

You left out the most important number in my view-

 

2015 LD%-  35.1%

Career LD%- 24.0%

 

That's a 46.3% improvement.  The dude is hitting ropes, finding a good pitch to square up and  hit earlier in the count, and not so many 8 bounce, seeing-eye worm-burners.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think he's been pulling the ball a ton more so far this year. Not just a little bit, or a small adjustment, but it's a huge thing. I think it can be a good thing... I mean, yesterday, he had the double to left-center and a triple to right-center. That's impressive. 

 

During Spring Training Mauer announce that his left leg had been hurting him last year.  That would account for the lack of pulling the ball. 

 

The little I've seen of him, he's much more aggressive at the plate this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You left out the most important number in my view-

 

2015 LD%-  35.1%

Career LD%- 24.0%

 

That's a 46.3% improvement.  The dude is hitting ropes, finding a good pitch to square up and  hit earlier in the count, and not so many 8 bounce, seeing-eye worm-burners.

A 46.4% improvement over ~17% of a season is almost certainly not statistically significant.  It's ~5 batted balls over 18 games, that apparently have not improved his BABIP or ISO at all (career worst ISO so far, worse than even his dreadful 2014 first half).

 

A 35% line drive rate isn't even sustainable.  With Fangraphs batted ball data going back to 2002, the highest full season mark in MLB has been 31% in that time (Freddie Freeman last year, the first player to break 30% since 2003).  In 2012 Dexter Fowler led all of MLB with a 27.2% mark (equal to Mauer's 2014 rate).  Mauer himself had the 5th highest line drive rate among qualifiers in 2014, and some good that did him!

 

Line drive is one of the more subjective batted ball classifications, and I think one of the least meaningful ones, especially in small samples.  B-Ref is already 3 off the Fangraphs line drive count, and was similarly off last year, which is 5-6% of his total BIP in those samples.

 

I like his 2015 K and BB rates so far too, but again he's within 2-4 events each of his 2014 rates.  They are all little improvements at this point, not just by sample size, but also by magnitude and significance.

[nicksaviking]

 

Joe Mauer is 10x the hitter Bruno was. Bruno might have suggested it (a couple years ago even), but until Mauer wanted to pull the ball, he wasn't going to. Last seasons performance may have finally made it click in his head that he needed to pull the ball more, or perhaps he began working on it last year and struggled in the transition, but it seems to be paying off this year.
 

 

Mauer is a better hitter than Bruno was, but that doesn't mean Bruno doesn't know more about hitting.  If hitting coaches were hired based on their ability to hit, there would be thousands of more qualified men to be a hitting instructor than Brunansky, or Vavra, or basically any current hitting coach.  Are there any current hitting coaches that were considered a great hitter when they played?  Maybe Wally Joyner or Kevin Seitzer were for a short time?

[Zachary]

Something that doesn't pop up on a stat sheet is the simple fact that it was just plain nice to see that type of game from Mauer last night. An RBI double and a go-ahead two-run triple in the 11th inning? That is what you should expect more often for that kind of money.

 

Also, I love the beard.

[FlapsDown]

Sooo...why are the two pull% stats I've seen in this thread for Mauer in 2015 so much different? Spy cake @ 18% BIP and Parkers is @ 40.4%. What am I missing here?

[jokin]

 

A 46.4% improvement over ~17% of a season is almost certainly not statistically significant.  It's ~5 batted balls over 18 games, that apparently have not improved his BABIP or ISO at all (career worst ISO so far, worse than even his dreadful 2014 first half).

A 35% line drive rate isn't even sustainable.

 

Those are my points precisely, and as I've posted previously in the other Mauer thread- that the SLG and the ISO numbers remain as alarming in 2015 as they were in 2014, particularly for a 1st baseman.

 

The improved BB/K rate and quality of contact rate (to all fields now) should merit moving him up in the batting order.

[Hrbowski]

I think that Mauer will have a really good year. If he keeps making adjustments they won't know where to put the shift and he could win a batting title again.

[Dantes929]

 

it's very difficult to hit for power without pulling the ball

Without looking up Trout and Cabrerra's spray charts I will agree with you, at least in terms of home run power.    Mauer has a 162 game average of a combination of 54 extra base hits and has always tended to hit to the opposite field.  His power year was at the dome and most of those cleared by about 2 feet and mostly to left of center.    He has been pulling the ball this year and through 18 games has zero homers.     Of course that can all change but I have always said I would be fine with the .320 average and 50 doubles and don't care if he ever hits another homer.    I am not anti pull.   I am anti swinging too hard, stepping in the bucket and trying to pull low and away pitches.     Mauer is stronger than last year , is still balanced and doesn't appear to be swinging too hard.    If he pulls it, goes up the middle or opposite field it doesn't matter as long as he hits it hard.  For some reason people think last year was the way he always hit and that the shift was his undoing.   its simply not true.   Last year was not the way he hit during his batting title years.    

[Mike Sixel]

Are we even a month in?

 

Other than 1st pitch swinging, is there really data that shows things have changed?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sooo...why are the two pull% stats I've seen in this thread for Mauer in 2015 so much different? Spy cake @ 18% BIP and Parkers is @ 40.4%. What am I missing here?

I am not sure either.  I am getting my data from B-Ref.  Parker's source may be proprietary (ESPN/TruMedia?).  B-Ref shows a lot hit "up the middle" so if another source is calling a bunch of those pull hits, that could be it.  Or if it was eliminating some BIP.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know if there is truly a conscious effort to change or just that his back injury is healed.  (People continue to make the concussions his main issue, but I firmly believe his back was the main issue)

 

That said, how many times did he rope a curveball into the right-field gap last year?  Once?  Twice?  That swing on the triple has been missing for awhile, but is so important for him to be the complete hitter he once was.  So whatever has lead to that return is fine by me.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I don't know if there is truly a conscious effort to change or just that his back injury is healed.  (People continue to make the concussions his main issue, but I firmly believe his back was the main issue)

 

That said, how many times did he rope a curveball into the right-field gap last year?  Once?  Twice?  That swing on the triple has been missing for awhile, but is so important for him to be the complete hitter he once was.  So whatever has lead to that return is fine by me.

 

It wasn't his back, it was his scroilliac!  Hey, that rhymed

 

Any who, Mauer mentioned during Spring Training, that he had a bad left leg last year.  So, right now, Mauer is healthy for the 1st time in a long time.  I way we stop over analyzing and enjoy his ride.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, right now, Mauer is healthy for the 1st time in a long time. I way we stop over analyzing and enjoy his ride.

There is no ride to enjoy, at least not yet.  Through 19 games, Mauer's 2015 results at the plate have been almost identical to his 2014 season.  In terms of OPS, the difference has been one single and one BB over those 19 games.

 

The hope is that there will be a ride to enjoy soon, based on (over)analysis of the first pitch / pull data and a lowered K rate.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, offensively, compared to other 1B, if this is a ride to enjoy, the Twins have problems.....