Article: MLB Draft: Spring Board 1.0

[Mike Sixel]

Giving up millions year after year is a bad proposition when it comes to finance. If he'd have taken the money last year, and put in index funds, he'd already have made enough to make up for the "low ball" offer he got. Putting off that income for another year, is another year where he doesn't make 1 penny. It just doesn't make any financial sense at all to keep not making money. 

 

Plus, there is always the risk that he's not fully healthy any time before the next draft, and isn't likely to go any higher next year. He would, from a purely financial perspective, be silly to turn down millions of dollars.

[nytwinsfan]

 

An OF who can hit for both average and power (and please not the dreaded 5-tool designation, because none of them the draft are...) should be first choice.

 

Well, you have to go BPA, but that being said, if you think two players left on the board are equally valuable, I would agree with you that the Twins should look for an outfielder. Ian Happ is probably the only college player to fit the bill, but Kyle Tucker would fit from HS. Jeremy didn't mention him, but Trenton Clark is another outfielder with maybe a little less power but with the hit tool and more speed/defense. He's also been said to have superb makeup, which honestly should matter on the margins. Most projections I've seen put him mid-first round, not early, so unless the Twins are really high on him, probably unlikely. More likely would be Happ or Tucker.

Edited April 23, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[shs_59]

I like Tate a lot now, trouble is Its a LOT of Helium and hype...

 

and the rest of Baseball has surely caught onto him.

 

Any chance he's available for the Twins to take Jeremy?

 

If so Should they?

 

Something i've noticed on Tate: ----->

...................

Thats a high high leg kick, but i like how he pitches from the stretch, and AT WORST i see him as an MLB reliever.

 

should be similar to Berrios in the minors. IMO <-----

[Minnesota Boy]

I heard somewhere before the last draft that Brady Aiken's potential was being compared to Cole Hamels.  I think he'd sign for 4 million especially since he's coming off Tommy John surgery and he'd take the money he can get.  In my opinion Aiken has the best potential out of everyone we could get in this draft, so I'm definitely rooting for Aiken.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I like Tate a lot now, trouble is Its a LOT of Helium and hype...

and the rest of Baseball has surely caught onto him.

Any chance he's available for the Twins to take Jeremy?

If so Should they?




...................
Thats a high high leg kick, but i like how he pitches from the stretch, and AT WORST i see him as an MLB reliever.

should be similar to Berrios in the minors. IMO

I'm pretty sure Jeremy will say No, and Yes to those two questions.

[sorney]

BPA BPA BPA Always always always!!  There is just too much of a flame-out rate to try and take a position of need.

[markos]

 

There's no college arms that have "ace potential" currently. Possibly Tate, but even that's dicey. Aiken is the closest thing. And Nikorak if you're OK rolling the dice.

I disagree with this, though I have a fairly broad definition of "ace potential". My list of college pitchers with "Ace potential" includes:

Tate
Funkhouser
Matuella
Fulmer
Ponce
Buehler

 

This is my reasoning. Other than a small handful of elite amateur pitchers (Strasburg, Prior, Price), the vast majority of Aces are developed over time in the minors and majors. So for me, having "ace potential" is more about having the raw tools needed, and questions about command, execution, durability, etc can be answered in the minor (and major) leagues. Off the top of my head, I consider the following tools that form the basis of an potential Ace:

* maintain good velocity (93+) into the late innings

* swing-and-miss breaking ball

* ability to limit platoon splits

* decent control

Beyond that, the ultimate ceiling of a pitcher depends a lot on how exactly those skills refine, and (just as importantly) how well the pitcher stays healthy. Will a pitcher's command take the necessary steps forward to allow his stuff to play up? Will he stay healthy and durable? Will a new changeup grip eliminate a weakness against lefties? Those kind of questions are very, very hard to project, and are often only answerable after years of development. That's why one ends up having draft classes where Chris Sale is the 7th pitcher drafted or Max Scherzer is the 8th.

 

Certainly some pitchers have few questions than others. But I'm not certain that the difference between best bet (say a perfectly healthy Aiken) and a good bet (say Tate) is incredibly meaningful given the huge uncertainty. And I don't think it is meaningful enough to say that one pitcher has "Ace potential" while another doesn't. It seems entirely possible to me that six years from now everyone will be wondering how Cy Young award winning Cody Ponce ended up falling to the #15 pick.

 

Sorry for the long-winded explanation.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Ow, we want the Funk
Give up the Funk
Ow, we need the Funk
We gotta have that Funk

 

That's my horse too.

 

My second horse may be pulling a Houston: lowballing a prep player so he doesn't sign and getting the 7th pick in 2016 instead.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I like Tate a lot now, trouble is Its a LOT of Helium and hype...

and the rest of Baseball has surely caught onto him.

Any chance he's available for the Twins to take Jeremy?

If so Should they?
 

 

I'd absolutely take him, if available. But the Twins expect him to go before they have a chance to.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Funkhouser, Fulmer and Buehler will all have the same area scout eyes on them (in addition to the higher ups), so there will be plenty of opportunities to compare them. At this point, I'm higher on Funkhouser than the others, but I'd like to give that more time. 

 

And sure, someone could turn out being an "ace" (by whoever's definition), but, at 6, they're going to be choosing between people with a flaw or two more than, say, Rodon had last year. You're looking at Aaron Nola-type guys. Great pitchers with great potential, sure... just leaving something to be desired. But this is a debate for another day. I'm just trying to sort through what I'm hearing/seeing.

[Willihammer]

Here's the thing with Aiken.

Evidently there's an opinion that a normal lifespan on a 2nd elbow is 8 years. Don't ask me who holds that opinion or how scrutinized it is. But it seems plausible, right?

 

Aiken was born on 8/16/96. He would spend at least 3-6 years "developing" in the Twins system, right? How much of a useful life would that leave your 6 overall pick? Not enough to even take him to FA. Not if there's any truth behind that 8 year number.

Edited April 23, 2015 by Willihammer

[Hrbowski]

 

I disagree with this, though I have a fairly broad definition of "ace potential". My list of college pitchers with "Ace potential" includes:

Tate
Funkhouser
Matuella
Fulmer
Ponce
Buehler

 

Funkhouser is really wild, I compare him to Tyler Beede, who went 14th overall last year, Buehler has shown better control, but has a weird delivery as does Ponce, Matuella has the most potential but his health issues get in the way, and I have heard that scouts think Fulmer is a reliever.

[Hrbowski]

My favorites are Mike Nikorak, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, DJ Stewart, and then Funkhouser/Fulmer; I don't like Happ for some reason.

[nytwinsfan]

I noticed that Brady Aiken favorited Seth's tweet on Gonsalves' great start today. I looked it up and they went to the same high school (Cathedral Catholic). I wonder if that could help somewhat with getting Aiken to sign if the Twins were to take him at 6. Aiken is on record as saying part of the reason he didn't go to Houston was more than just the money, but that his family didn't feel comfortable with them. The Twins, who paid Gonsalves over slot and took him after some disciplinary issues in high school, could look like a good fit to Aiken, especially if Gonsalves speaks highly of the system.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Here's the thing with Aiken.

Evidently there's an opinion that a normal lifespan on a 2nd elbow is 8 years. Don't ask me who holds that opinion or how scrutinized it is. But it seems plausible, right?

 

Aiken was born on 8/16/96. He would spend at least 3-6 years "developing" in the Twins system, right? How much of a useful life would that leave your 6 overall pick? Not enough to even take him to FA. Not if there's any truth behind that 8 year number.

That's an interesting read. But as far as development paths go, Giolito, who had the surgery in the fall following his senior year of high school, and Aiken, who had the surgery in the spring following his senior year, are basically on the same path and the Nationals - who are more picky about that "TJS2" than anyone - probably would take Aiken if they had the chance.

[gunnarthor]

 

I noticed that Brady Aiken favorited Seth's tweet on Gonsalves' great start today. I looked it up and they went to the same high school (Cathedral Catholic). I wonder if that could help somewhat with getting Aiken to sign if the Twins were to take him at 6. Aiken is on record as saying part of the reason he didn't go to Houston was more than just the money, but that his family didn't feel comfortable with them. The Twins, who paid Gonsalves over slot and took him after some disciplinary issues in high school, could look like a good fit to Aiken, especially if Gonsalves speaks highly of the system.

I don't have any doubt that, if the Twins take Aiken, they'll sign him.  They'll have worked something out with Close before hand.  The issue is solely on how they view his medicals.

[twinsfanstreif]

Man, I go MIA for a few weeks and the whole draft class blows up, what happened?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I noticed that Brady Aiken favorited Seth's tweet on Gonsalves' great start today. I looked it up and they went to the same high school (Cathedral Catholic). I wonder if that could help somewhat with getting Aiken to sign if the Twins were to take him at 6. Aiken is on record as saying part of the reason he didn't go to Houston was more than just the money, but that his family didn't feel comfortable with them. The Twins, who paid Gonsalves over slot and took him after some disciplinary issues in high school, could look like a good fit to Aiken, especially if Gonsalves speaks highly of the system.

We asked Gonsalves about Aiken when we had him on our podcast. They were/are good friends. That would be an interesting angle.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Man, I go MIA for a few weeks and the whole draft class blows up, what happened?

 

I think it all started when Ervin Santana didn't know how the steroids got in his body. Or Obama, he's pretty popular to blame too. Personally, I blame Scott Walker.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

I think it all started when Ervin Santana didn't know how the steroids got in his body. Or Obama, he's pretty popular to blame too. Personally, I blame Scott Walker.

I'm gonna choose to blame Bill Smith......totally all his fault

[Willihammer]

 

That's an interesting read. But as far as development paths go, Giolito, who had the surgery in the fall following his senior year of high school, and Aiken, who had the surgery in the spring following his senior year, are basically on the same path and the Nationals - who are more picky about that "TJS2" than anyone - probably would take Aiken if they had the chance.

TJS success rates are good but they're not so good that you take one at 6. Too much of a reach IMO. Heck, taking Giolito at 16 was considered a reach by a lot of people. And he hasn't even cracked AA so I wouldn't consider it an inefficiency just yet. Its just too risky for 6 IMO.

[tobi0040]

TJS success rates are good but they're not so good that you take one at 6. Too much of a reach IMO. Heck, taking Giolito at 16 was considered a reach by a lot of people. And he hasn't even cracked AA so I wouldn't consider it an inefficiency just yet. Its just too risky for 6 IMO.

In a redraft, giolito goes top five and Strasburg, who had tj goes 1-1 still. Harvey goes earlier than he did too.

[Hrbowski]

If Aiken is willing to sign and the Twins are OK with his medical records they will take him because he has the most potential of anyone in this, or last year's class.

[Hrbowski]

 

I think it all started when Ervin Santana didn't know how the steroids got in his body. Or Obama, he's pretty popular to blame too. Personally, I blame Scott Walker.

Yeah, Walker and Hillary Clinton planned this together, they are the two biggest jokes of politicians, so I wouldn't put it past them.

[tobi0040]

Speaking of Gonslaves. He needs to get to fort Myers. 7 ip. One hit. 11k today. 0.90 era now.

[Willihammer]

In a redraft, giolito goes top five and Strasburg, who had tj goes 1-1 still. Harvey goes earlier than he did too.

These guys had TJS after they began their development. Thus their team-control years are less shortened by the theoretical 8 year lifespan of a 2nd elbow.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I've said this before, but there is a weird disconnect when it comes to the draft. We are what, six weeks from the draft? And yet, there is evidently tons of time for things to change before the draft. Why then, can players have entire off years, and that can (accurately, in my view) be largely ignored in favor of the player's track record?

 

For my money, if Aiken is there at 6, the Twins should absolutely take him. His upside and established level seems much higher than anyone else in the draft.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't have any doubt that, if the Twins take Aiken, they'll sign him.  They'll have worked something out with Close before hand.  The issue is solely on how they view his medicals.

I completely agree with this. I was going to ask Jeremy if he thought the Gonsalves Factor might help the Twins sign him. I think it could, even though it shouldn't.

 

So I think it should be all about the medical. That said, in early June, he'll only be about 3 months post- Tommy John so there won't be anything much to go on. But he has, by far, the highest upside, so I'd be in favor of taking him.

[bird]

 

I'm gonna choose to blame Bill Smith......totally all his fault

 

 

Hey, lay off Bill Smith. He was just doing what Gardy told him.

[tobi0040]

 

These guys had TJS after they began their development. Thus their team-control years are less shortened by the theoretical 8 year lifespan of a 2nd elbow.

 

True, but that is only part of it.  The other part is the worry that they won't be as good after TJ.  In the case of the guys mentioned....they are still really good and even after TJ get drafted higher in a re-draft.

 

The other thing is those other teams wasted a year and a half of control in the cheap years on these guys while they rehabbed (Stras, Harvey, and Liriano to name a few). That would not happen in the case of Aiken.