Twins 2014 International Signings (BA Review)

[nytwinsfan]

Unfortunately, I do not have a BA account, and this is mostly behind the pay wall, but Baseball America just published a review of the Twins' 2014 international signings, which apparently includes a scouting analysis of nine Twins' signings (behind the paywall). Maybe someone else does have an account and can enjoy the article (and share any highlights).

 

Also of interest, Ben Badler, the author of the article, had this very promising thing to say about the Twins' top signing ($800 K) of 2014, Huascar Ynoa:

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

No one else received bonuses of more than $450,000. 

[nytwinsfan]

 Jeremy, not sure if you have access to the full article, but I know that a lot of teams were concerned with Ynoa's inconsistency, which was partly why/how he fell to the Twins at only $800K. Have you heard anything about how he's been doing since he signed? I assume he was still in DR this past year.

[markos]

 

No one else received bonuses of more than $450,000. 

Jeremy, have you or Seth (or anyone else on TD) been tracking the Twins international signings for this past July 2 period? There was a thread a while back where we were guessing about how much of the international pool the Twins have spent this year. I made a SWAG that they have ~$500K leftover. Do you have any idea where the Twins are at? 

[Bob Sacamento]

Ask and ye shall receive:

 

14. Huascar Ynoa, rhp, Dominican Republic

Born: May 28, 1998. Height: 6-2. Weight: 190. B-T: R-R.
Michael Ynoa set an international amateur record as a 16-year-old in 2008 when he signed with Oakland for $4.25 million, which is still the bonus record for a pitcher. Younger brother Huascar, who also trains with Edgar Mercedes, entered the year with the industry expectation that he would be the No. 1 pitcher in the Dominican Republic and perhaps all of Latin America. After Ynoa looked sharp at the MLB showcase in San Pedro de Macoris in January with four strikeouts in two innings, scouts have been scratching their heads at his up-and-down performances, including a couple of International Prospect League outings in Arizona in March when his control and breaking ball weren’t as crisp as usual.
When Ynoa is at his best, he looks like the top pitcher on the market. He throws 88-92 mph, though he’s already relatively filled out for his age, so there are questions on how much his fastball will grow. At times, Ynoa has two out-pitches that can freeze hitters, including a mid-70s curveball with good depth and a low-80s changeup with good arm speed that can be a swing-and-miss pitch, already flashing as a 50-55 offering. He keeps hitters off balance by throwing any pitch in any count.
Ynoa has plenty of experience on the mound and pitched in the Cal Ripken World Series in Aberdeen, Md., in 2011, but his inconsistent showings have given scouts reservations. He has some shoulder tilt in is delivery, which causes him to get uphill and gives him trouble keeping the ball down and in the strike zone. He does stay on line to the plate and he isn’t a max-effort thrower, but he will need to smooth out his delivery when he gets to pro ball.
No pitcher draws a wider split of opinions than Ynoa, and even scouts who have seen him a lot aren’t sure what to make of him. His biggest believers think he has the chance to be a frontline starter. Ynoa’s market will be one of the more fascinating ones to follow, since it’s not clear where he might end up.

[Bob Sacamento]

Twins spent the 10th highest from The figures below include spending done throughout 2014, both during the second half of the 2013-14 international signing period and the first half of the current 2014-15 signing period, which began on July 2 and accounts for the overwhelming majority of the spending figures. The spending records exclude Cuban players,

 

1. Yankees  $17.83 million

2. Rays  $6.11 million
3. Red Sox  $5.63 million
4. Astros  $5.42 million
5. White Sox  $4.37 million
6. Mariners  $3.94 million
7. Phillies  $3.36 million
8. Rockies  $3.33 million
9. Cubs  $3.32 million
10. Twins  $3.26 million

[Mike Sixel]

How much room did the Twins not use? They left enough money on the table to sign one more top 20 guy, I think.....why would you do that, for that little money?

[gunnarthor]

I don't know enough about the international players to have an intelligent view on the signings but I do want the Twins to spend every penny of it, in whatever way they deem is fruitful.  

[nytwinsfan]

 

How much room did the Twins not use? They left enough money on the table to sign one more top 20 guy, I think.....why would you do that, for that little money?

 

I totally agree they should spend all of it, but you can't just be like, oh, I have $500 K left, let me go sign a top 20 guy.  For instance, the top 20 guys have agreements in place long long before Jul. 2. And it is not just a bidding war. Teams have to make sure there is a fit, and a lot of players want to sign with an organization they feel comfortable with. So even if the Twins did have money left over, which we don't know for sure, there may be many good reasons for that. Generally the sense I've gotten is that the Twins are not afraid to spend their full pool. This year they are already pegged to spend more than their initial pool distribution on a single guy, Wander Javier.

[Mike Sixel]

I understand it is not simple.....I don't understand not spending it all. Their strategy is to build through development, they should be the BEST at that, and not finding a way to spend their full allotment probably isn't being the BEST. 

 

I have also read they'll be blowing past their budget. If true, they should be signing lots of guys, not just one, since they won't be able to sign many/any the following year (if the rules don't change).

[maxisagod]

 

I understand it is not simple.....I don't understand not spending it all. Their strategy is to build through development, they should be the BEST at that, and not finding a way to spend their full allotment probably isn't being the BEST. 

 

I have also read they'll be blowing past their budget. If true, they should be signing lots of guys, not just one, since they won't be able to sign many/any the following year (if the rules don't change).

 

I think we're all in agreement on spending the whole budget, the problem is the Twins don't broadcast their bonuses and some players are very closed lipped about what they got, like Ruar Verkerk or one of the last Auzzie pitchers the Twins signed (can't say I wouldn't do the same thing ). So we may never know if every penny is spent unless Doggie Wolfson or someone get's a source off the record. 

 

The Twins could use  two different strategies during the next signing period. Blow past the cap or expand their cap thru trades. Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Dbacks could all be cap trade partners if they don't want to/ can't go hog wild over the next July 2nd signing class. Don't the Pads need a Shortstop?  

[Seth Stohs]

Not totally sure that this is a complete list, but I think it is... of the 2014 International signings (as of a couple of weeks ago):

 

Jorge Acosta - C

Jean Carlos Arias - CF

Luis Bellorin - LHP

Jose Bermudez - RF 

Darling Cuesto - C 

Rowan Ebersohn - LF (S. Africa)

Danny Feliz - 

Luis Gil - RHP

Brusdar Graterol - RHP

Zaino Henriquez - SS (Curacao)

Andriu Marin - RHP

Matz Schutte - RHP (Netherlands)

Fredderi Soto - LHP

Carlos Suniaga - RHP

Lachlan Wells - LHP

Huascar Ynoa - RHP

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think we're all in agreement on spending the whole budget, the problem is the Twins don't broadcast their bonuses and some players are very closed lipped about what they got, like Ruar Verkerk or one of the last Auzzie pitchers the Twins signed (can't say I wouldn't do the same thing ). So we may never know if every penny is spent unless Doggie Wolfson or someone get's a source off the record. 

 

The Twins could use  two different strategies during the next signing period. Blow past the cap or expand their cap thru trades. Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Dbacks could all be cap trade partners if they don't want to/ can't go hog wild over the next July 2nd signing class. Don't the Pads need a Shortstop?

 

Why give up assets, why not just blow through the cap? Other than saving the owner money......there is no good reason to give up an asset to expand their cap.

[maxisagod]

 

Why give up assets, why not just blow through the cap? Other than saving the owner money......there is no good reason to give up an asset to expand their cap.

 

It's a trade off. Is this the year they think it's worth it? I can't say. Maybe it's a weak year, maybe they don't have the personal connections mentioned above. Maybe they just really like Wander Javier and a bunch of 5 grand guys.  Maybe scouting around this year, they know there are players they like and are get able next year. Or maybe they feel a guy like Escobar is worth essentially an extra 1st round international player, and next year is not worth given up on.... I don't know for sure, and I bet the Twins aren't 100% sure either right now.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

By this point in the year, I'd assume the Twins have used up most of their allotment. But it's all weird because of when guys are allowed to sign, when periods start and stop... and their is a dead period in there too.

 

My assumption is that the team will continue to add low-bonus guys through May. And then start fresh - with a splash - in July. I'd also be shocked if the Twins didn't acquire additional funds.

 

As for how the guys are doing - I don't know. I've reached out to a handful of people but the typical response is "haven't seen him" in regards to Ynoa.

[bird]

 

I totally agree they should spend all of it, but you can't just be like, oh, I have $500 K left, let me go sign a top 20 guy.  For instance, the top 20 guys have agreements in place long long before Jul. 2. And it is not just a bidding war. Teams have to make sure there is a fit, and a lot of players want to sign with an organization they feel comfortable with. So even if the Twins did have money left over, which we don't know for sure, there may be many good reasons for that. Generally the sense I've gotten is that the Twins are not afraid to spend their full pool. This year they are already pegged to spend more than their initial pool distribution on a single guy, Wander Javier.

 

 

Not only do we not know for sure if they have allotment money left, but my understanding is they have until July 1 to sign any straggler. As much as some might like to issue an indictment for them maybe not spending every dollar, it's premature. 

 

Blowing through the cap is breaching an agreement. Having spent the greater portion of my corporate career intensely involved in authoring ethical codes of conduct and in the process becoming acquainted with ethics professors from many of our finest schools, I am certain there is not a single professor out there who would say breaching the agreement is ethical. They are cheating all of us by doing so, period.

[Mike Sixel]

There is not a rule against going over the cap....going over the cap results in consequences. If you are willing to pay those consequences, how is that breaking a rule?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, going over the cap isn't cheating sorry. There are consequences for doing it, but it's in the rules. The consequences are pretty light (and I doubt that was an accident), which is why teams do it. If the teams that went over were forfeiting their draft picks and weren't allowed to sign international players for several years, it wouldn't happen.

[nytwinsfan]

As for going over the cap (which will be around $6 million if they trade for maximum non-penalty cap space) this coming year (July 2, 2015-July 1, 2016) to sign Javier and others, Kiley McDaniel and others have said a couple of times that the 2016-2017 crop of international players is likely to be better than this year and one of the best in a while. And since everyone who went over this year (including the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Diamonbacks) and everyone who goes over this coming year (probably including the Dodgers and Cubs) is likely to be prohibited from spending big in 2016-17, that might be the best year for the Twins to make a splash and go way over their cap in the international market.  Just a thought.

[bird]

 

There is not a rule against going over the cap....going over the cap results in consequences. If you are willing to pay those consequences, how is that breaking a rule?

 

 

It is a rule. All teams are signators to an agreement to abide by these rules. Breaking them is unethical because it cheats others, regardless of the consequences that must be paid. It's cheating, and it's wrong. Other teams are damaged, and whatever fines are paid do not necessarily repair the damage to them. The cheaters are willing to risk that the consequences will be less than the reward of hoarding something that was meant to be made equitably available.

 

My understanding is that the rules say a team shall not go over the cap, and if they do...rather than saying "teams shall be permitted to go over the cap, but..." And in the ethics business, the rule of thumb is to honor the intent of such an agreement. The allotments serve an intent and going over is dishonoring those with whom you have agreed.

 

Being willing to pay a consequence means nothing. Is burglarizing your neighbor OK because you're willing to risk that the consequences will be worth it? Is speeding OK because you're willing to pay the consequences?

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

Question for the group:

 

Would you rather see the Twins sign one player at $1 million, or 10 guys at $100,000?

If they're allotted $3 million, would you rather they signed one player at $3 million, or 30 players at $100,000?

 

 

I know it doesn't have to be an either/or... I would rather go for quantity because the international market for 16-year-olds is SO unpredictable. The high-bonus guys seem to have a slightly better opportunity to get to the MLB level, but I'm not certain just how much. 

 

Obviously I like how they've done it with a $1Million type, a couple in the $400-500K range, several in the $100-200K range, and then quite a few less than $100K guys. I'm just curious.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd probably go a little of both.

[maxisagod]

I'd say a little of both, but in reality I have no idea how to judge the difference in talent between 15 year olds about to turn 16. So how much better is a 4million player than a 250 grade player at this stage? I'd go back and forth 1 year a Sano like player, the next a bunch of guys, one of whom might be an Arica. Playing the market not the strategy.  

[Mike Sixel]

Seth, that's a false choice. But, if those are my only options....30 guys.

[Oxtung]

How could you field those 30 guys? Even if you could for a season how could you do it year after year. You might know more about a kid after they spend a year in your organization but not that much more than at 16. Their body is still growing and it will take several years to determine what what the Twins have. There just aren't enough spots available for that many commitments.

[markos]

 

Question for the group:

 

Would you rather see the Twins sign one player at $1 million, or 10 guys at $100,000?

If they're allotted $3 million, would you rather they signed one player at $3 million, or 30 players at $100,000?

 

 

I know it doesn't have to be an either/or... I would rather go for quantity because the international market for 16-year-olds is SO unpredictable. The high-bonus guys seem to have a slightly better opportunity to get to the MLB level, but I'm not certain just how much. 

 

Obviously I like how they've done it with a $1Million type, a couple in the $400-500K range, several in the $100-200K range, and then quite a few less than $100K guys. I'm just curious.

I don't have enough information to feel strongly answering these questions one way or another. However, I do feel strongly that these are answerable questions. The Twins should have enough information from the past few decades to know the success rate of their (and the rest of the league's) international signings, and from that they should be able to model the potential gain of these different scenarios. 

 

A similar exercise could be done with the draft, and there is enough public information for us to come up with decent answers. For example, you could ask the question "would you prefer that the Twins had the #1 pick in the draft, or all 30 picks in the 10th round?", and looking at the historical evidence it is pretty clear that there is more value with the #1 pick. If the future success of international signings follows a similar distribution to the draft, then it may make the most sense to just sign one guy.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

How could you field those 30 guys? Even if you could for a season how could you do it year after year. You might know more about a kid after they spend a year in your organization but not that much more than at 16. Their body is still growing and it will take several years to determine what what the Twins have. There just aren't enough spots available for that many commitments.

 

Start another team? I was given 4 bad choices, I chose what I considered the least bad of the 4.....

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Not totally sure that this is a complete list, but I think it is... of the 2014 International signings (as of a couple of weeks ago):

 

Jorge Acosta - C

Jean Carlos Arias - CF

Luis Bellorin - LHP

Jose Bermudez - RF 

Darling Cuesto - C 

Rowan Ebersohn - LF (S. Africa)

Danny Feliz - 

Luis Gil - RHP

Brusdar Graterol - RHP

Zaino Henriquez - SS (Curacao)

Andriu Marin - RHP

Matz Schutte - RHP (Netherlands)

Fredderi Soto - LHP

Carlos Suniaga - RHP

Lachlan Wells - LHP

Huascar Ynoa - RHP

 

 

Seth -

 

I also had 1B Jack Barrie (AUS) and RHP Moises Gomez (DR) on my list as signed in 2014 - did I put them in the wrong year or (screw up completely)?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I made a SWAG that they have ~$500K leftover.

Don't forget, they could also spend about $500k over their cap (15%) without incurring penalties for future signing periods.  So they could have about $1 mil leftover.

[2wins87]

 

Seth -

 

I also had 1B Jack Barrie (AUS) and RHP Moises Gomez (DR) on my list as signed in 2014 - did I put them in the wrong year or (screw up completely)?

 

Both Barrie and Gomez signed in early 2014 (before July 2nd), so they are part of the 2013-2014 pool