Eight Twins Prospects in Sickels top 175

[kab21]

That's why it's important to have quantity.  The top 20 prospects were quite productive and the twins have 2.  And the Twins have quantity also but that's why it's important to not make any MLB plans based on having Polanco in the minors.  Several prospects are going to make it but we really don't know who.

 

The analysis didn't look at proximity to majors when ranked though.  This is a pretty important part of busts.  Players with success in AA/AAA (like Meyer) are less likely to bust than recent draft picks that haven't done much in A ball yet (like Stewart).  But it is a really good article.  Thanks for posting.

[nicksaviking]

It's exciting they have this many prospects. Maybe they'll promote some this year before they are out of it......

Your sentence trailed off there, but I too hope they are promoted before they are out of options.

[ashbury]

 

This is exactly the method used.

Anything to satisfy the naysayers though...

I found a version of the study in the meantime. There, the writer stated the reason:

 

Many prospects showed up on multiple lists, but I counted each occurrence of the player because my goal is to measure the performance of rankings as opposed to the players.

 

Fair enough; if a ranker keeps ranking the same guy year after year, it reflects on the ranking.

 

But he's pretty explicit in saying it's not meant to reflect on the players.

[USAFChief]

Multiple counting of names on a few top 100 lists and throwing it into a table obscures the accurate data on the subject.

 

The general success rates for prospects are fairly well understood by a lot of us. We know, for example, that there's a phenomenally higher rate of success for the top 10 draftees versus the bottom 10 draftees.

.

But those statistics have zero bearing on what this Top 175 ranking looks like. The Twins have 13 prospects mentioned. Sickles doesn't project bust rates for any of the 200+ prospects mentioned.

 

Whether one tends toward optimism or pessimism, one has to acknowledge that the current Twins prospect pipeline is judged to be superior. One of the very best by any credible measure. Probably the best pipeline in the entire history of the organization, IMO. Anyone who can't get excited by this group of prospects, both the ones newly graduated like Santana, May, Arcia, Vargas, and Gibson or the dozen still in the pipeline, should have their pulse checked.

I just checked, and my pulse is fine, even though I'm not "excited" in the least by prospects.

 

Hopeful, intrigued, sure. But not excited. I get excited about MLB games in September that mean something. Postseason games.

 

I'm glad the Twins have some quality and depth in the minors. It is certainly better than not having either. But it hasn't translated into anything yet, a good portion of the quality is there only because of how badly they've performed at the only level that matters, and one major piece is there thanks to a one-time-only strategy of outbidding everyone else on an international free agent.

 

I'll get excited when and if any of this actually means something more than hopeful opinions, because that's all it is. I think it's important to remember "if" is still very much in play.

[bird]

 

I just checked, and my pulse is fine, even though I'm not "excited" in the least by prospects.

Hopeful, intrigued, sure. But not excited. I get excited about MLB games in September that mean something. Postseason games.

I'm glad the Twins have some quality and depth in the minors. It is certainly better than not having either. But it hasn't translated into anything yet, a good portion of the quality is there only because of how badly they've performed at the only level that matters, and one major piece is there thanks to a one-time-only strategy of outbidding everyone else on an international free agent.

I'll get excited when and if any of this actually means something more than hopeful opinions, because that's all it is. I think it's important to remember "if" is still very much in play.

 

Fair enough, Chief, to each his own.

 

I'm excited in advance about you becoming excited in 2016.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, reading last year's spring training news......we were all supposed to be excited THIS YEAR, but Buxton and Sano will not be here, and it's about 25% likely Meyer is......so I'm not ready to count my chickens for next year just yet.

[jay]

But he's pretty explicit in saying it's not meant to reflect on the players.

Yes. It would not be an effective use of that analysis to apply those figures to an individual player's likelihood of success, as has been inferred elsewhere here.

[twinsfanstreif]

Interesting that the study states that the Twins had an 80% bust rate, one of the highest

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Kershaw for instance made the BA top 100 list "only" twice. Mussina just once. The bums.

 

No kidding, Aaron Hicks is a four time member surely meaning he's twice as good as Kershaw.

[gunnarthor]

 

Interesting that the study states that the Twins had an 80% bust rate, one of the highest

Part if probably due to methodology.  Of the 30 Twins listed, it would be tough to call Mauer, Morneau, Cuddy, Ortiz, Milton, Hunter, Tapani, Knobby, Guzman, Hawkins, Valentin busts but at least 5 of them would be under this analysis. 

 

And both Callis (at BA) and Sickels (at minorleagueball) have pointed out that they've gotten better at making top 100 lists. Maybe Johnny Ard doens't make a top 100 list today and a guy like AJ or Koskie or Radke or Santana or Baker or Dougie Baseball or Jacque Jones does.

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

Right now it looks like only one new (aging and defensively suspect) veteran upgrade in the OF, and Escobar likely going to the bench represents a net downgrade for whichever veteran suspect ends up starting in CF.  One new veteran starting pitcher, one "new" old veteran starting suspect pitcher, and at least one, maybe more, new veteran suspect(s) in the pen.   In all likelihood, no prospects in the rotation, the pen, on the field or on the position player bench.  The whole thing looks pretty suspect.

 

Yep, I suspect that 73-77 wins sounds about right...  or... maybe a little optimistic on my part?***

 

***(I still hold out hope that this is all wrong, and unlike last year, the top guys that are dominating in AAA and AA are actually called up when they're dominating- not needing to somehow "show more consistency", and not some time in August or after September 1st.

So what do the charts and studies say for the success and bust rate of new veterans and suspect veterans?    What is the bust and success rates for big ticket free agents over the life of their contracts?   I read the study and it was interesting or enlightening but not discouraging and I suspect a bit flawed.      If we get 3 successes out of those top 13 and they are with us 8 or 9 years to go along with a few more in 4 years and maybe a couple that didn't make any lists and a couple that are currently on the team and still developing it isn't all bad.    No where near all prospects pan out but everyone that pans out was a prospect.   

[bird]

 

Well, reading last year's spring training news......we were all supposed to be excited THIS YEAR, but Buxton and Sano will not be here, and it's about 25% likely Meyer is......so I'm not ready to count my chickens for next year just yet.

 

Just to buoy your spirits, mike, you'll recall you didn't count chickens like Gibson, Vargas, Santana, an improved Plouffe, a breakout Dozier, and a career year Hughes in 2014. And IIRC, us optimists were pretty consistent about saying 2015 would still be a transition year.

 

Sano, Buxton, and Meyer will all likely be here in 2015. From my own vantage point, things are moving along even better than I had expected last spring. Of course, I also believe Arcia, Gibson, and May are for real and that the chances are better than 75% that any but not all of Pinto, Vargas, Hicks, and Santana are too. It'll be another year probably before all of this translates into the almighty W-L record, but dude, this is going to be a fun team to watch by mid-year.

[twinsfanstreif]

Part if probably due to methodology.  Of the 30 Twins listed, it would be tough to call Mauer, Morneau, Cuddy, Ortiz, Milton, Hunter, Tapani, Knobby, Guzman, Hawkins, Valentin busts but at least 5 of them would be under this analysis. 

 

And both Callis (at BA) and Sickels (at minorleagueball) have pointed out that they've gotten better at making top 100 lists. Maybe Johnny Ard doens't make a top 100 list today and a guy like AJ or Koskie or Radke or Santana or Baker or Dougie Baseball or Jacque Jones does.

Well during that span we also had the likes of Adam Johnson and BJ Garbe and probably a lot more in the top 100

[jokin]

 

I don't think anyone doubts that prospects don't always pan out, although there's probably a pretty big difference between Swarzak (#100 prospect 2006) and Meyer or Joe Benson (#100, 2011) and Buxton.  But you're also ignoring the prospects that make it that didn't make any top 100 lists.  The Twins revival in the early 2000s was mostly made up of prospects that were never ranked in any top 100 lists.  Koskie, AJ, Jones, Dougie Baseball, Mays, Radke, Santana etc.  Even Hunter only made the top 100 one year (and it was at 79). 

 

The 2014 Twins got some pretty good play out of some prospects that weren't rated - Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Plouffe.  And they have some nice highly regarded prospects coming up to support them.  Nothing wrong with looking forward to it.

 

I;m not ignoring the non-100 prospect lists.  I'm pointing out the most salient fact germane to the actual title of this thread.  And that is- although we can all chest-thump about having bragging rights for a top farm system- having the most Top 175 prospects doesn't necessarily translate to a passel-full of Ace pitchers and perennial All Star position players, let alone, guarantee a string of ALC pennants and World Series appearances.  It's all about what you allude to, plus a cogent and forward-thinking strategy and set of goals in the front-office.

[bird]

 

I;m not ignoring the non-100 prospect lists.  I'm pointing out the most salient fact germane to the actual title of this thread.  And that is- although we can all chest-thump about having bragging rights for a top farm system- having the most Top 175 prospects doesn't necessarily translate to a passel-full of Ace pitchers and perennial All Star position players, let alone, guarantee a string of ALC pennants and World Series appearances.  It's all about what you allude to, plus a cogent and forward-thinking strategy and set of goals in the front-office.

 

 

I would guess you're turning a cute phrase here, but let's be clear about what we're hearing from the most optimistic people out there. We haven't heard anyone talk about the pipeline representing a passel-full of Ace pitchers and perennial All Star position players. I can't recall a single comment on here about ALC pennants and WS appearances being givens.

 

The subject of the thread was Sickle's top 175 rankings. The most salient fact for Twins fans is that Sickles mentioned 13 prospects. Nowhere did he discuss the bust rates of individual players, and nowhere did he discuss the correlation between the quality of a team's pipeline and future wins and losses. Both of these would be great things to explore in greater depth on TD. Maybe someone can bring forth some truly salient facts on these subjects