MN said to have $4 M deal with Wander Javier for July 2

[jokin]

The 60-yd dash isn't useful for SS evaluation--it's more like the 1 second dash--how quick is said candidate.

 

Not necessarily for the SS position, but still useful as a measurement of raw athleticism.

[nytwinsfan]

Mouth watering!  You mentioned Addison Russell, the comparable tool set tells me that the Twins could potentially have the option to  make a trade for an Ace.  (I know, I know, definitely not in Ryan's nature to consider this option, and wildly premature at this point, but at least something that might be possible down the road)

 

In 2014, Crawford was playing High A ball at age 19, Mondesi was playing High A ball at age 18.  Considering that they're playing with guys 4-5 years older, their stats are respectable, especially Crawford.

I'm not saying he is Addison Russell -- a 60 versus a 50 (or even a 55) power is a significant difference. I'm just saying take an all-around great SS prospect like Russell, and subtract some power, and that's comparable tools. He's actually closer to Crawford or Gordon for that matter, in terms of tools.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/

 

Fangraphs claims that the Twins are rumored to linked to this kid. Any more on this kid or the rumors to this? 

 

Would be a good article for someone to write! 

 

There is a video that wasn't that impressive too, but here is the portion on him, incase you fear clicking on link:

 

"Javier is the kind of player you typically see near the top of July 2nd bonus lists. He’s a 6’0, lanky shortstop with easy actions and an above average arm with an ability to stick at the position. Javier ran a 7.01 in the 60 last month, a 50 run time on the 20-80 scale, but he’s the type of kid who will probably gain a step in the next few years; Royals SS Raul Mondesi is an example of similar prospect who gained a couple steps after he signed. Javier ran a 6.76 for me in October, so 55 speed is clearly in the tank.

 

Javier flashes average raw power that may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops and he flashes some ability to show that tool in games. In the first half of the video, from last month, Javier was just okay offensively, getting off balance and swinging and missing more than expected. In the second half of the video, from October, Javier is more relaxed with better timing. While his mechanics still aren’t perfect, his feel for hitting took over when his hitting actions were more compact. This isn’t to say that Javier is trending down, just pointing out how one bad event could change a scout’s projection if he didn’t have history with the player. This type of variance is common with young players and is fixable.

 

Javier is widely believed to have a deal with the Twins for $4.0 million, which I believe would be the highest July 2nd bonus of all-time for a shortstop. The Twins’ pool is just under $4.0 million, which means trades could push it to nearly $6 million, so they could easily stay under after a Javier signing, with just one minor trade to add more pool space."

[JB_Iowa]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/

 

Fangraphs claims that the Twins are rumored to linked to this kid. Any more on this kid or the rumors to this? 

 

 

Um. yeah, the Fangraphs post and extensive quotes from it were the basis of this thread and took up most of the initial post.  

 

Can someone enlighten me.  If the Twins sign him does he move into the minor league system here in the states or does he enter the Twins academy in the DR for a period of time?????

[nytwinsfan]

Um. yeah, the Fangraphs post and extensive quotes from it were the basis of this thread and took up most of the initial post.  

 

Can someone enlighten me.  If the Twins sign him does he move into the minor league system here in the states or does he enter the Twins academy in the DR for a period of time?????

 

I think the latter. At the very least, he'd probably be in the Domincan Summer League the first year, as were Lewin Diaz and Minier when they signed out of the DR.

[Squirrel]

Um. yeah, the Fangraphs post and extensive quotes from it were the basis of this thread and took up most of the initial post.  

 

This was merged from a thread that was started on the same subject.  So I changed the title of this thread to include Wander Javier's name so there wouldn't be any future confusion.

[JB_Iowa]

This was merged from a thread that was started on the same subject.  So I changed the title of this thread to include Wander Javier's name so there wouldn't be any future confusion.

Ah, I get it now. I get so confused! But I do appreciate not having duplicate threads.

[maxisagod]

...

Can someone enlighten me.  If the Twins sign him does he move into the minor league system here in the states or does he enter the Twins academy in the DR for a period of time?????

 

Only a handful of Latin America July 2nd guys made it to the states in their 1st year (Polanco, Sano, and Minier for example) so the odds are Javier won't be one of those guys, but if the Twins consider him as elite as the other 3 name I mentioned he's got a better shot then most. The Twins have a back log of corner Infielder in rookie ball, but there may be room for a SS on the GCL roster, depending who they draft this summer. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

The one thing that jumped out of the fangraphs article was Kiley Daniel saying that almost all of the reported deals from a year ago came to fruition.

 

And Parker, you are saying the swing is bad because it is too level?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Maybe Mauer needs to adopt the Williams swing.

[nicksaviking]

I'd be fine with that too, especially if they go after one of the Cuban pitchers, but I think you overestimate how much good PR that would engender outside of the people who read and comment on these posts.

Are there other people to care about? I'm just looking out for you guys and gals.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Ah, I get it now. I get so confused! But I do appreciate not having duplicate threads.

Yeah, I should have looked to see if there was an article already, but had a crying toddler pulling at me, so just put my thoughts down quick before or I would have never remembered to.

[Parker Hageman]

And Parker, you are saying the swing is bad because it is too level?

 

 

In the video clips of Javier you see his bat plane going downward at the point of contact. This reduces the amount of time the barrel will be in the pitch zone, creating a lot of irregular contact which is why you see this "Javier was just okay offensively, getting off balance and swinging and missing more than expected".

 

It's not damnation on him, he's 16 after all. I would suspect that the Twins would go to work correcting some of his swing habits.  

 

Watch Yaz's swing plane in this clip. Yes, I know it is unfair to show one of the game's greatest hitters but for context, watch his bat path to the ball:

 

http://www.theptmethod.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/CYastremski1970BOS.gif

[nicksaviking]

The 60-yd dash isn't useful for SS evaluation--it's more like the 1 second dash--how quick is said candidate.

 

Call me old school, but I still think catching flies with chopsticks is the most superior way of measuring quickness.

 

 

[Secondary User]

Call me old school, but I still think catching flies with chopsticks is the most superior way of measuring quickness.

 

 

 

And your ability to wax a car will give you a great indicator how good their hands are

[nytwinsfan]

Tweet from Doogie on this: He's been digging, and so far has no reason to doubt Twins are in on Javier.

 

https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/572779962123624448'

 

Another tweet from Doogie: 

 

[2wins87]

In the video clips of Javier you see his bat plane going downward at the point of contact. This reduces the amount of time the barrel will be in the pitch zone, creating a lot of irregular contact which is why you see this "Javier was just okay offensively, getting off balance and swinging and missing more than expected".

 

I'm not very good at judging prospects based on video, but as soon as I saw that video I thought, "Huh, that swing doesn't look very good to me."  This puts it in context.

 

I'm a little surprised by the size of the bonus, but the market for international guys has really exploded over the past 5-10 years.  Put into context, $4 million for a guy this year probably isn't even as big as the $3+ million that Sano got 5 years ago.

 

I think the signing is first and foremost about defense.  The Twins have signed a number of dominican "shortstops" (Sano, Minier), but most guys don't have any shot at sticking there.  It sounds like Javier is a sure bet to stick there and has a good chance of being a plus defender, which is pretty valuable.  The Twins must like his makeup a lot.  When you are signing a 16 year old, most of their development as a player is going to happen within the organization, so one of the biggest considerations is how a guy is going to work with your coaches.

 

I also don't think speed needs to be a big consideration here.  Just because someone is young and athletic doesn't mean they are going to be a burner on the basepaths.  For Javier it's more about how his athleticism plays at short.

[nytwinsfan]

All great points. Although I'm not sure any 16 yo is a "sure bet" to stick at SS. But he does sound like he has a better shot at sticking at SS than most.

 

I'm not very good at judging prospects based on video, but as soon as I saw that video I thought, "Huh, that swing doesn't look very good to me."  This puts it in context.

 

I'm a little surprised by the size of the bonus, but the market for international guys has really exploded over the past 5-10 years.  Put into context, $4 million for a guy this year probably isn't even as big as the $3+ million that Sano got 5 years ago.

 

I think the signing is first and foremost about defense.  The Twins have signed a number of dominican "shortstops" (Sano, Minier), but most guys don't have any shot at sticking there.  It sounds like Javier is a sure bet to stick there and has a good chance of being a plus defender, which is pretty valuable.  The Twins must like his makeup a lot.  When you are signing a 16 year old, most of their development as a player is going to happen within the organization, so one of the biggest considerations is how a guy is going to work with your coaches.

 

I also don't think speed needs to be a big consideration here.  Just because someone is young and athletic doesn't mean they are going to be a burner on the basepaths.  For Javier it's more about how his athleticism plays at short.

[2wins87]

All great points. Although I'm not sure any 16 yo is a "sure bet" to stick at SS. But he does sound like he has a better shot at sticking at SS than most.

 

Fair enough

[beckmt]

Hope this works out, but it is a lot of money for the Twins.  Pressure must be building on the FO to create a set of winning teams for the next decade. 

Just hope this is not a stalker piece to get some big money teams in on this kid. 

[Parker Hageman]

Hope this works out, but it is a lot of money for the Twins.

 

 

As a reminder: baseball is a NINE BILLION DOLLAR a year industry. The Twins have big $$$ to spend. 

[maxisagod]

Hope this works out, but it is a lot of money for the Twins.  Pressure must be building on the FO to create a set of winning teams for the next decade. 

Just hope this is not a stalker piece to get some big money teams in on this kid. 

Kiley McDaniel had a very impressive record last year at not only predicting bonuses, but the teams.

 

The new unwritten rule seems to be:

1, Come to terms with a team early, even a year in advance. 

2, Keep quite about it because this breaks the official rules.  

3, Trainer pulls kid from all competitions so kids doesn't hurt himself and hurt the deal. Clear sign deal has been reached with someone. 

4, Word get out about years and price when other teams talk to the trainer or when scouts for teams talk to each other 'off the record'.

5, if a trainer breaks the verbal agreement, he not only breaks the trust of the team he worked with, but  he risks making other early agreements with all teams in the future and missing out on a lot of early money in the future. 

 

Then again all it takes is one team to break these rules successfully and the rules can change again.

 

In other words, I fully expect  Wander Javier to sign with the Twins on July 2nd. 

[twinsfanstreif]

The hip/foot action is OK. The leg lift is fine. The problem is that he drifts out over the front foot once he starts his swing and then the swing plane is down at impact almost every time. It is an old lesson from Williams' book but it still holds true: get an upward plane.

 

http://www.tuckerhead.com/hf_swing.gif

 

Obviously he is a young buck and has plenty of work ahead of him to be a polished hitter but that swing is surprising for the price. 

Yea, after watching the video I was a bit concerned about his mechanics and I couldn't quite put language to it (I'm more familiar with pitching mechanics) but I had to keep reminding myself that it was a 16 year old I was watching. I still don't see a $4 million player though and I liked Vlad's son a lot better (although apparently he doesn't have a position)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Jeremy can probably correct me if any of this is wrong, but the Twins pool is $3,948,500. They can trade for up to 50% of that, which would be $5,922,750. Then, you are also allowed to go up to 5% over before anything more than 100% overages kick in (i.e., at that point you can't sign anyone above $500 K the following year). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25149

 

So in theory, the Twins could spend up to $6,218,887.50 (after trades and 5% over), and not face any penalty other than 100% penalty on the $300 K overage. So they could still have more than $2 Million left to spend on others.

 

Slow day at work.

 

Without checking your math, that all appears accurate. They can stretch that money quite a ways. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Then again all it takes is one team to break these rules successfully and the rules can change again.

 

 

Didn't the Twins kind of break these rules when they sniped Sano from the Pirates?

[nytwinsfan]

Didn't the Twins kind of break these rules when they sniped Sano from the Pirates?

My understanding is there were many fewer written rules then, although maybe you are referring to un-written rules.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Can someone enlighten me.  If the Twins sign him does he move into the minor league system here in the states or does he enter the Twins academy in the DR for a period of time?????

 

If he signed on July 2, 2015, he wouldn't eligible to play in games until 2016. At his age, it would be short-season ball, so basically a year before he plays in a game. At that point, he'd likely start in the DSL with a chance to get to the GCL by the end of 2016, but more likely 2017. That would put him in Elizabethton in 2018 and Cedar Rapids in April of 2019 over FOUR YEARS AWAY!

 

(and then added to the 40-man that winter... but at least he'd qualify for a fourth option.)

 

 

(and, yes, the intention was to put a whole bunch of carts before the horse.)

[maxisagod]

Didn't the Twins kind of break these rules when they sniped Sano from the Pirates?

 

Yeah, those rules went away a few years back.  The story goes Rene Gayo of the Pirates tried to game the system telling teams they were going to sign him to drive down the competition, then there were also those rumors about his age that also seemed designed to drive down the price. Rob Plummer maintains no agreement was ever agreed upon (The Pelotero movie seems to back that up). 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I seem to remember the Twins giving the offer if the agent agreed not to shop it. The agent agreed and Sano is a Twin.

[nytwinsfan]

I seem to remember the Twins giving the offer if the agent agreed not to shop it. The agent agreed and Sano is a Twin.

Need to watch Pelotero again. I forget the details now, although I remember more of the focus being on the dealings with the Pirates than on the dealings with the Twins.