Wetmore: Milone Confident He'll Make Rotation, If...

[Seth Stohs]

Derek Wetmore wrote about Tommy Milone and his confidence that he will make the starting rotation... if he gets back to being "the pitcher they traded for." 

 

When healthy, he has been a legitimate, solid big league starter. 

 

 

"When I'm throwing well is when I'm commanding. Changeup has good depth, moving away from right-handed hitters. And then I can just spot fastballs in and out whenever I want," Milone said.

 

Health is a part of the question. When he came to the Twins a year ago, he wasn't himself. He went on the DL. Later, doctors found, and later removed, a tumor. 

 

Milone is certainly a Twins fifth starter candidate and is competing with Mike Pelfrey, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and maybe others for one spot in the Twins rotation. 

[Willihammer]

Diamond and Albers were pretty good too when their control was pinpoint accurate. But command comes and goes, when a guy loses it he has to lean on the quality of his stuff to grind through lineups. Last year we saw what Milone's stuff was worth without the pinpoint command. It was not good.

 

I hope the Twins realize that, outside of the $2.8m they agreed to pay him, they have only invested a waiver pickup in Milone.

[Paul Pleiss]

Milone is not a 5th starter. Well, maybe in AAA.

 

Give me Meyer/May or give me death.

[Thrylos]

Tommy Milone in numbers (MLB) :

 

Career xFIP: 4.22, Career FIP: 4.21, Career K% 16.9, Career average FB velocity: 87.3 mph.  Career Line Drive Percentage: 22.1% (that would probably have him in the top 10% of starters).

 

Tommy Milone's scouting report:

 

4 pitches, Fastball, Cutter, Curve and Change.  Only one above average pitch (change up.)  Fastball, much below average, curve below average and cutter average.

 

His single above average pitch is his 80 mph change.  I think that he would be great to pitch batting practice in a contending MLB team...   If the Twins do not think that they are a contending MLB team, they should give him a rotation spot.

[Seth Stohs]

Regarding the playoffs, the A's thought enough of him a couple of years ago to give him a start in the playoffs. Last year, he wasn't because the A's went out and got other starters.

 

I'm more intrigued by May and Meyer, but Milone has certainly done enough in his career to get a strong shot at it.

[Jham]

Tommy Milone in numbers (MLB) :

 

Career xFIP: 4.22, Career FIP: 4.21, Career K% 16.9, Career average FB velocity: 87.3 mph.  Career Line Drive Percentage: 22.1% (that would probably have him in the top 10% of starters).

 

Tommy Milone's scouting report:

 

4 pitches, Fastball, Cutter, Curve and Change.  Only one above average pitch (change up.)  Fastball, much below average, curve below average and cutter average.

 

His single above average pitch is his 80 mph change.  I think that he would be great to pitch batting practice in a contending MLB team...   If the Twins do not think that they are a contending MLB team, they should give him a rotation spot.

Career FIP 4.10, Career xFIP 4.20, Career K% 13.8 %, Career line drive % 20.1 %, avg. fastball velocity 85.8.

 

Career record 199W to 152L, 51.8 career WAR over 14+seasons, NEVER had less than 200 innings. Never had a negative WAR.  Also has 2 no-hitters including a perfect game.  

 

The pitcher?  Mark Buehrle.  He's already made $118,000,000 in his career not including the $20 mil he's set to make this year.  Seriously?  Wow.  Good for him.  Anyhow, some people evidently see value in soft-tossing lefties with a history of getting results.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Career FIP 4.10, Career xFIP 4.20, Career K% 13.8 %, Career line drive % 20.1 %, avg. fastball velocity 85.8.

Career record 199W to 152L, 51.8 career WAR over 14+seasons, NEVER had less than 200 innings. Never had a negative WAR.  Also has 2 no-hitters including a perfect game.  

The pitcher?  Mark Buehrle.  He's already made $118,000,000 in his career not including the $20 mil he's set to make this year.  Seriously?  Wow.  Good for him.  Anyhow, some people evidently see value in soft-tossing lefties with a history of getting results.

 

and the Blue Jays can have him

[jay]

and the Blue Jays can have him

That's the same Mark Buerhle that a number of folks here were adamant the Twins should trade for this offseason.

 

I'll take Milone for $2.8, please.

[Linus]

Like most posters here, I hope the 5th starter is May or Meyer (for me Meyer).  However, I have no problem if it ends up being Milone or even Pelfrey if they are the best pitcher available.  Whoever gets that 5th spot is going to have to beat out several viable candidates and pitch well to stay in the rotation.

 

This is one reason I am more bullish on the Twins than most people.  Pitching is the most important ingredient to winning and I like that they have a whole bunch of legit people to pick from for both the rotation and the bullpen.

 

Milone is valuable to the Twins in that he has an option left so, worst case scenario, he ends up in AAA providing a nice depth option.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Buehrle is pretty good, but he is an outlier at that profile. You can find a dozen young MLB pitchers with similar profiles and none will match even a quarter of what Buehrle has done.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, FIP and xFIP are not league or park adjusted. You can't compare one from Oakland 2012-2014 and compare it to one largely compiled in Chicago 2000-2011.

[Jham]

Buehrle is pretty good, but he is an outlier at that profile. You can find a dozen young MLB pitchers with similar profiles and none will match even a quarter of what Buehrle has done.

 

Failure of other prospects with similar profiles is not a good reason not go with Milone if he gives the best chance to win every 5th day.  Prospects aren't guaranteed. Personally, I'm not 100% sure if there is any substantial difference in ability between Trevor May and Anthony Swarzak, and Meyer might be closer to Joba Chamberlain than Justin Verlander.  What are the odds that Meyer or May end up with a career as good as Buehrle?  Probably not that much different than the dozen other young pitchers you speak of.  Milone has had multiple seasons of sustained success.  That trait is the one characteristic that he has that is the single best predictor of future success in my mind. 

 

For good measure, here are Kenny Roger's stats: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1277&position=P   He also threw a perfect game.

 

 

[Thrylos]

What are the odds that Meyer or May end up with a career as good as Buehrle? 

 

Excellent.  

 

Buehrle had only a single season that he received votes for the Cy Young award.  He finished 5th overall with 5 points (the winner had 118 points.)   I am certain that, injuries notwithstanding, at least Meyer will get more than 5 points in his career in the Cy Young voting.   For reference:  Phil Hughes got six points last season.

 

Buehrle was a decent number 3 starter in a competitive team during his prime.   Meyer has Ace potential and May at least mid-rotation.  The fact that he (and all junk throwing lefties) has always baffled the Twins, is more of Twins' doing and not Buehrle's.

[jorgenswest]

Milone's road ERA of 4.48 and k/w ratio of 3.0 through age 27 should be worthy of a good look this spring and a spot on the 40 in AAA if optioned. It would be a huge step up if the Twins got a 4.48 ERA from their fifth starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Failure of other prospects with similar profiles is not a good reason not go with Milone if he gives the best chance to win every 5th day.

 

 

Where did I argue such a thing?

 

Hey, I endorsed the trade, I am fine with the contract, I say let him compete for the job. But comparisons to Buehrle and Rogers are pretty off-base at this point. They should help Milone's case about as much as a Randy Johnson comp should help Meyer's (read: none).

[nicksaviking]

What are the odds that Meyer or May end up with a career as good as Buehrle?  Probably not that much different than the dozen other young pitchers you speak of.  Milone has had multiple seasons of sustained success.

 

The odds they end up better than Buehrle are low, but they aren't competing against Buerhle for the fith spot. The odds of their career being better than Milone is high, very high.

 

I think you're confusing sustained success with a flash in the pan. Someone with sustained success doesn't get traded for Sam Fuld. He was a product of a gigantic foul territory and with his weak stuff has absolutely no margin for error. Fortunately the Twins front office appears not to be fooled.

[Otto von Ballpark]

By the age of Milone's MLB debut (24), Buehrle had 511 IP at 131 ERA+, plus an all star appearance. Milone currently sits at 490 and 97 at age 28. (Buehrle at that age? 1400 IP, 121 ERA+)

[Jham]

Where did I argue such a thing?

 

Hey, I endorsed the trade, I am fine with the contract, I say let him compete for the job. But comparisons to Buehrle and Rogers are pretty off-base at this point. They should help Milone's case about as much as a Randy Johnson comp should help Meyer's (read: none).

 

My only point in comparing Milone to Buehrle is that he shouldn't be discounted, and his success shouldn't be discounted simply because he doesn't thrown 95 mph or excite scouts with an electric fastball.  I'm not arguing Milone is as good as Buehrle or will have a career as good as Buehrle.  I'm saying that his stuff can play as a number 5 guy potentially even a 3.  It's not like we're deciding between the devil we know vs. the devil we don't know. Milone has actually been pretty good. I don't replace guys that have been good with ones who could be good (Meyer and May) without a compelling reason to do so.  IE Milone pitches himself out of the rotation or Meyer or May force our hand by dominating MLB hitters out of the pen ala Liriano, Sale, Price, Wainright, etc.  

 

[Jham]

The odds they end up better than Buehrle are low, but they aren't competing against Buerhle for the fith spot. The odds of their career being better than Milone is high, very high.

 

I think you're confusing sustained success with a flash in the pan. Someone with sustained success doesn't get traded for Sam Fuld. He was a product of a gigantic foul territory and with his weak stuff has absolutely no margin for error. Fortunately the Twins front office appears not to be fooled.

 

I guess it depends on your definition of a flash in the pan.  He had two above average full seasons and was working on perhaps his best season before he was traded for Fuld.  Milone was expendable when the A's traded for Smardja et al. I would argue that Milone was traded for Fuld because of his sustained success.  Milone asked to be traded, and the A's honored that request because he had been successful.  

[Jham]

Excellent.  

 

Buehrle had only a single season that he received votes for the Cy Young award.  He finished 5th overall with 5 points (the winner had 118 points.)   I am certain that, injuries notwithstanding, at least Meyer will get more than 5 points in his career in the Cy Young voting.   For reference:  Phil Hughes got six points last season.

 

Buehrle was a decent number 3 starter in a competitive team during his prime.   Meyer has Ace potential and May at least mid-rotation.  The fact that he (and all junk throwing lefties) has always baffled the Twins, is more of Twins' doing and not Buehrle's.

 

I certainly hope you're right.  From your posts, it seems you were on Meyer's change in change-ups before anyone.  I've also seen conflicting scouting reports on whether Meyer is a fastball/slider pitcher, or fastball/curve.  I know you saw him pitch one of his better games last year.  But he struggled in other starts.  I'm not saying Meyer or May won't or shouldn't be better than Milone.  I'm saying you can see varying levels of potential in all 3.  Picking one shouldn't be a slight against the others.  I prefer going with some amount of proven success over potential success, at least early in the season.  That's simply my preference.  If Meyer or May are better, they'll force their way through.  I just can't see why some posters are bashing MIlone like it boosts the stock of their favorite prospects.  I don't see any reason whatsoever why all 3 can't be very successful major league starters.

 

[Kwak]

A point not mentioned in the #5 SP discussion is:  Terry Ryan.  He went out to acquire each of these men--spending either players or money with the purpose of correcting the poor results of the rotation.  If none of these guys take this job and "do something" with it, what does that say about the ability to locate and acquire talent the restores the Twins to a contender?  Signing warm bodies that  kinda/sorta resemble major league talent isn't enough.  If the "vaunted eye-test"  doesn't work?--then what?  It's great that the Twins have had these very early selections in the Rule 4 Draft, and that they might become stars ( a big function of the player-personnel department).  But, evaluation is crucial, adding talent from other rosters is hugely important--and there have been few success stories there.

[stringer bell]

We all know that Milone was terrible for the Twins.  We also know that he pitched very well for the A's without overwhelming stuff.  In terms of performance, when the Twins acquired him, Milone's ERA+ was 100 (age 27), Nolasco's was 94 (age 31), Santana's was 99 (age 32) and Hughes' was 95 (age 28).  Yes, his upside is limited, but his performance in almost three full years was as good or better than any of the other three veterans the Twins have acquired for considerably more money. 

 

Maybe he was injured or maybe it is the perplexing failure of veterans the Twins have picked up since things went south in 2011--Jason Marquis, Vance Worley, Nolasco and now Milone.  In addition, they acquired Capps in 2010 to be their closer and he never was very good for the Twins, either. 

[Thrylos]

 

 the Twins have picked up since things went south in 2011--Jason Marquis, Vance Worley, Nolasco and now Milone.  In addition, they acquired Capps in 2010 to be their closer and he never was very good for the Twins, either. 

 

Worley and (a bit) Marquis with their performance after they left the Twins, kinda proved that it was the pitching coach who was an issue (and they were not the first ones.)  Capps helped the Twins make the post season when Smith traded for him, but Ryan should had never extended him (the manager and the aforementioned pitching coach wanted a "proven closer")   

 

I really would love to see what this bunch of pitchers can do without Anderson being around...

[kellyvance]

Wait, what?  We are thinking of making a guy whose fastball can't break a pane of glass the fifth starter?

 

This with May, Meyer, Berrios, and many better arms waiting in the wings? 

 

I doubt Paulie does that. 

[Linus]

Wait, what?  We are thinking of making a guy whose fastball can't break a pane of glass the fifth starter?

 

This with May, Meyer, Berrios, and many better arms waiting in the wings? 

 

I doubt Paulie does that. 

Umm,....its about getting guys out.  Baseball history is littered with guys that can throw hard but can't get anybody out and guys that cant' break "break a plane of glass" but figure out a way to get guys out

[jimmer]

Career FIP of 4.21 (4.30 in 2013, 4.69 last year), gives up more hits than IP, strikes out 6.5 per 9 IP.  All pitchers need a good defense, some more than others to be even decent. He desperately needs one.