Gleeman's Top 40 Twins Prospects Lists

[TRex]

both of those statements are true. From people I've talked to (in and out of org), you hear both. Most seem to think he can stick at short. Others don't. Reality is that most don't stick at short, so to say that a guy may not stay at short isn't a stretch.

 

And, the Thorpe comment is true and has been written about here many times. It's a concern, of course. Whether it was a screeching halt, I don't know. He made his last start, but then didn't pitch in the playoffs. I recall asking someone if Thorpe's not making starts was just that he was being shut down, but I was told that it wasn't just that. 

I find numerous reports about a UCL sprain, including this from Berardino on 2/20:

 

Highly rated pitching prospect Lewis Thorpe, coming off a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left (throwing) elbow...

 

Oh, hell, never mind... a little digging shows that 'sprain' and 'tear' are synonymous in this setting.

 

Since that is the case, I have either mis-diagnosed hundreds of ankle sprains or I am walking without tendons!

[Steven Buhr]

Every year, I find myself surprised by the amount of work Gleeman puts in to this list (though, after a few years, you would think it wouldn't surprise me any more). Considering that he certainly is not a guy who focuses a lot of attention during the year on minor league affiliates, he clearly does his homework putting together this list.

 

That doesn't mean I agree with him in all cases, but then I don't agree with Seth or BA or BP or anyone else in all cases, either.

 

This series from Gleeman is, without doubt, one of the things I like best about his blog.

[nicksaviking]

That was my reaction.   It could be considered cynical, or merely practical, but if someone wants to protect his reputation as a scout, I expect it's safer to err on this side of prediction; if somebody else challenges the report 5 years later because the player did stick, he can still knock the player's current performance in some way, unless we're talking about Ozzie Smith.

 

That's true, but I think hedging one's bets to fend off criticism years off does the analysis injustice.

 

Besides, the abilities between SS and 2B probably are less than we like to think and certainly arbitrary.  I'd guess Brian Dozier's defense at SS would be better than Asdrubal Cabrera's yet any scout who said Dozier had a chance to stick at SS but Cabrera didn't would be wrong I guess. 

[amjgt]

Cool comments!

 

I took this as Aaron just being snarky, but then he started off this week's podcast complaining about the comments on this thread.

 

I think all of the criticism was very constructive. Why you felt the need to recover your password and make your third post ever on this website is beyond me. 

 

Only one guy got at all personal, talking about your writing about celebrity crushes being creepy. The post that that guy quoted what critical, but I think very constructive. If you don't have anything positive to say about someone, then why is he in your top ten? You don't need to be a homer, but talking about the positive and negatives of a prospect you have in your top 10 seems like common sense. 

[twinsfanstreif]

If it helps I've always liked Gleeman's site and I've never really thought of his as overly negative, sarcastic and critical, maybe at times but I personally find it humorous and his baseball analysis fairly accurate

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think part of the issue is that Gleeman writes for an audience that already knows these guys. Presumably Rosario had a much more positive write-up last year, for example.

 

Also Gleeman seems to like to "balance" the conventional wisdom and team sources and traditional media. I have that tendency here too, where I sometimes only post to correct or disagree.

 

Alternate reading both his posts and Seth's posts here and imagine them as the devil and angel on your shoulders. (That's not what I do, but I think it would be a humorous visual.)

[gunnarthor]

I took this as Aaron just being snarky, but then he started off this week's podcast complaining about the comments on this thread.

 

Yeah, he's always struck me in a bad way, as I alluded to above.  Before TD, I used to read him but I haven't for years except for his prospect lists - and give him credit, he does more than just 20 guys.  That does take some hard work.  But his overall tone - both in covering baseball and in different areas - has always made me think poorly of him as a person, regardless of his what he is actually saying.

[Seth Stohs]

Alternate reading both his posts and Seth's posts here and imagine them as the devil and angel on your shoulders. (That's not what I do, but I think it would be a humorous visual.)

 

I can see the video now... Interesting thought.

 

Hey, let's try to keep it to the prospect list, please? Aaron put a lot of time and research into his list, and obviously has good prospect contacts on the national level who have been doing this stuff for a long time. 

 

I will be interested, when Aaron's list is complete, to see how it compares to the TD list, or my personal list, or Jeremy's, Cody's, BA's, BP's, Sickels' and more. 

[maxisagod]

I can see the video now... Interesting thought.

 

Hey, let's try to keep it to the prospect list, please? Aaron put a lot of time and research into his list, and obviously has good prospect contacts on the national level who have been doing this stuff for a long time. 

 

I will be interested, when Aaron's list is complete, to see how it compares to the TD list, or my personal list, or Jeremy's, Cody's, BA's, BP's, Sickels' and more. 

 

Since you bring up comparing lists, it fun to note that, Like Aaron,  Sickels' also ranks Roserio at #10. Here is what he wrote:

10) Eddie Rosario, OF-2B, Grade B-: Tools are not as robust as Polanco’s, but up until 2014 he’s always hit very, very well. Impressive instincts and on-field effort help all of his tools play up, but a drug suspension hurt his stock with observers and adjustments to Double-A pitching have not been smooth. I still like him but some caution is warranted. ETA: late 2015. 

 

Gleeman's ranking of Rosario are pretty on par with several of the names you list, the issue  isn't lack of work, knowledge, or contacts.  I'll give credit for all those things. The issue is: does an overly critical tone get in the way of properly articulating why a prospect is a prospect? Sickels' seems to find a balance in his write up of Rosario that Aaron does not. Which is a shame because Gleeman is a independent thinker and may think do to the lack of power, move to the corner, and the suspension, that Rosario isn't much of a prospect. But when he ranks Rosario almost the same as Jeremy, Cody, and yourself the question becomes is the ranking more 'group think' or does Aaron think more of Rosario then he writes about? After all these are not the days when Blackburn is the Twins top prospect. Every top 10 player for the Twins should now profile as a future regular. 

[shs_59]

Yeah Max. Well said.

 

1) All-star  (annually)

2) Star player, well above average

3) Division 1 regular

4) Division 2 regular  (Hicks, Escobar, Plouffe types)

5) Bench, role player, utility guy

6) the dreaded "quad A"  player.

 

 

of those 6 possible outcomes for Twins prospects..

 

Probably only 1 hits #1 .

maybe 2  (or 1) in the "Star player" category

and You hope the rest, at least in the Twins top 10, somewhere between outcomes #3 and #5

 

The Twins can not afford any # 6's with their top 10 , At least not more than one.   (injuries aside)

 

I think Gleeman gets the big picture, and I like his down-to-earth realistic approach to looking at prospects.  I think he's much more a "realist" than a pessimist.

 

But i will say He is in my opinion going to be waay way wrong about Garver Vs Stu Turner, i have Turner 19th and feel could be low, Also i Don't quite understand his love For Mike Cederoth vs someone like Tyler Duffey.

 

Every year he likes Ryan Eades, Luke Bard, Hudson Boyd types right after they are drafted, while continually over-looking Taylor Rogers types.  This year it is no different with Duffey vs Cederoth.

 

Aaron, if you come back in here, Thanks for ur Lists everyyear they are really great.. (one of a kind) and for the work you put into them.  Keeps me coming back to ur blog!

[Seth Stohs]

Updated to include prospects 1-5. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Guess I've never really looked at Buxton like he's a middle order bat. Strikes me as someone who could hit 20 home runs in his peak, but with the OBP and speed, I think he'll be more of a top of the order kind of guy. Perhaps he'll play out like Ricky Henderson did and be a leadoff hitter with some pop, but those are some pretty lofty expectations to foster on anyone, much less a 19 year old kid with 1 game in AA.

 

And even if he exceeds/meets them, I hope he never gives an "I am the greatest" speech

[gunnarthor]

God, I hope these guys stay healthy and reach their potential.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Guess I've never really looked at Buxton like he's a middle order bat. Strikes me as someone who could hit 20 home runs in his peak, but with the OBP and speed, I think he'll be more of a top of the order kind of guy.

I think Gleeman's point was that hit bat could play in either spot (top or middle of the order) -- which gives him more potential avenues to success than the usual prospect!

 

If you figure he adds some power and lose some speed over the next few years, he could fit more of that middle profile, like a Puckett.

[Seth Stohs]

I agree. It's an exciting group of young prospects. 

[Seth Stohs]

I think Gleeman's point was that hit bat could play in either spot (top or middle of the order) -- which gives him more potential avenues to success than the usual prospect!

 

If you figure he adds some power and lose some speed over the next few years, he could fit more of that middle profile, like a Puckett.

 

I remember asking Jake Mauer about Buxton before he had even started playing at Cedar Rapids. They see him as a leadoff hitter. They led him off because it would mean more plate appearances.  But, both believed that he could develop into a middle of the lineup hitter over time and with experience and growth. I think that all still remains true. 

[nytwinsfan]

Speaking of Buxton, Got Milk?

 

 

EDIT: That is a lot of milk! I hope he consulted with Joe Mauer about what kind of milk to drink.

[DJL44]

Buxton - you don't need to suck up to Mauer to get the job.
 

[TRex]

Buxton - you don't need to suck up to Mauer to get the job.

 

I think he's going for Mauer's #7 (the number Buxton wore in the ML)!

[maxisagod]

Aaron Gleeman posted his system overview today. 

http://aarongleeman.com/2015/03/11/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2015-system-overview/

 

I liked this overview a lot more. It gives a very nice balance of optimism, while talking about setbacks top prospects made. It's clear Aaron likes the Twins focus on high velocity arms, even if they're ceiling lower. He also talks about the last two years promotions, filling out important roles.