Dozier Named 9th Best 2B

[Seth Stohs]

MLB Network's show Top Ten Right Now! will air an episode next week in which Brian Dozier will be named the #9 second baseman in MLB... It's based on calculations and such, and I'm sure on the show itself their panel will discuss their rankings... I personally don't get MLB Network and wish I did! Here's the ranking:

 

Top 10 Second Basemen Right Now:

1. Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners

2. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

3. Ben Zobrist, Oakland Athletics

4. Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates

5. Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers

6. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

7. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies

9. Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins

10. Scooter Gennett, Milwaukee Brewers

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting. I'd probably put Dozier a slot or two higher than that but I could see an argument being made for most of the guys above him.

[jimmer]

Interesting. I'd probably put Dozier a slot or two higher than that but I could see an argument being made for most of the guys above him.

I would too.  If he was playing in a bigger market for a better team, he'd be higher. He was 11th in his first year at 2B and 5th last year. 

 

Though I'm surprised Kipnis isn't in there at all. He should bounce back.

 

So 'The Shredder' might have Dozier at 9th, and the Shredder doesn't explain itself, but other people on the panel may have him higher or lower and might say why.

[stringer bell]

Zobrist only started 74 games at second last year, so I'd argue with him being called a second baseman.

[jimmer]

Zobrist only started 74 games at second last year, so I'd argue with him being called a second baseman.

They put him there because that is where he will likely play most of his games

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would too.  If he was playing in a bigger market for a better team, he'd be higher. He was 11th in his first year at 2B and 5th last year. 

I don't think this list is market-based.  Zobrist?  Neil Walker?

 

I think it is current performance level AND track record of achieving that level.  Dozier has a much shorter track record than just about everyone in front of him, with the possible exception of Altuve (who probably gets a bonus for winning a batting title with a 6 WAR season).

 

Now, factor in age/contract and Dozier could move past a couple more guys, but I don't think that's a criteria used here.

[jimmer]

Well, Zobrist has gotten a lot of hype for his hybred routine and his consistent excellence for many years, and it took awhile for Walker to get his due since the team only started doing well recently.

 

In any event, the Shredder makes his choices and then two or three others give theirs as well.  

 

With as poor as the Twins have been, they don't get much attention.  Attention that they would get anyway if in another market. He's flying under the radar. And, like you said, Dozier hasn't been around a long time.

[nicksaviking]

I have pretty strong hopes for Dozier to improve, still, that's a pretty solid list.  Only one super star, but those are really solid baseball players.  Ninth out of that group isn't anything to be ashamed of, that's for sure. 

 

I'd argue the biggest objection out of that group should be Pedroia, who has seen his OPS drop each of the last four years.  It seems the other names on the list are ordered based largely on their play from last year, while I have no clue what input they are using for Pedroia.  Hopes and prayers for a career renaissance I guess.

[Willihammer]

Yeah, lots of good 2Bs in the AL right now. You could make a case for ranking them about a hundred different ways.

[jimmer]

Pedroai has consistently had a WAR in the 4s or higher pretty much his whole career.  The last 4 years it's been 7.7, 4.3, 5.4 and 4.4.  I think he gets the benefit of the doubt that, when taking into account overall play, he's awesome.  He is one of my favorite players in the game.

[Paul Pleiss]

9th best 2B.

 

I feel underwhelmed. I don't want to be the 9th best at anything.

[jorgenswest]

They need a lot more top third of the league players to get into the top third of the standings and be in contention.

[TheLeviathan]

If any second baseman on this list has a gripe it's Altuve, not Dozier.

[snarkerbarnyard]

The fact that Altuve isn't in the top 3 on the list goes to show that the "Shredder" is silly and values aging, declining player (Zobrist, Pedroia) over new stars.

[jimmer]

The fact that Altuve isn't in the top 3 on the list goes to show that the "Shredder" is silly and values aging, declining player (Zobrist, Pedroia) over new stars.

That or the Shredder values consistently high quality performance to one very good offensive year that came out of the blue. Last year Altuve's 5.1 WAR was 4th for 2Bs and before that he had never been above 1.5. 

 

Zobrist was 1st in WAR.

[ashbury]

Last year Altuve's 5.1 WAR was 4th for 2Bs and before that he had never been above 1.5.

A career high WAR by a 24 year old.  Imagine that.

[jimmer]

A career high WAR by a 24 year old.  Imagine that.

yeah, but a jump of almost 4 WAR?  

 

And hey, I'm not saying he can't do it again, but one shouldn't just ASSUME that when ranking the 2Bs.  ONE great year shouldn't put him above guys who have been very good for years, including last year.  I wouldn't take him before Zobrist of Pedroia.

[ashbury]

yeah, but a jump of almost 4 WAR? 

Forecasting is hard, whether it's done by eyeballing or by using a set procedure.  I'm just saying that it's a judgement call at the moment whether to view 2014 as the outlier, when maybe in 2017 we'll look back and view 2013 as his sophomore jinx or something.  It's a reason I've gotten less and less interested in ranked lists of this type.

[jimmer]

Forecasting is hard, whether it's done by eyeballing or by using a set procedure.  I'm just saying that it's a judgement call at the moment whether to view 2014 as the outlier, when maybe in 2017 we'll look back and view 2013 as a sophomore jinx or something.  It's why as I've gotten older I've gotten less interested in ranked lists of this type.

I'm not sure Shredder even considers it an outlier, I doubt anyone watching him thinks he's only a role player like his WAR the previous two years says.  Just need to see if he can come close to being that good again offensively before putting him above guys who have shown they are very good year in and year out offensively and defensively, for the most part. Because his value is almost all from offense, because he rates below average defense, so we will see. I don't see Shredder's ranking of Pedroia and Zobrist above Altuve as any kind of knock on Shredder.

[ashbury]

I don't see Shredder's ranking of Pedroia and Zobrist above Altuve as any kind of knock on Shredder.

Depends on what you think the purpose/meaning of a list like this is. Who was the best in 2014? Who will be the best in 2015?  Who will be the best for longer than that?  Who would return the most in trade?  Who will...  well, if they call it Top Ten Right Now!, right now it's February, so maybe they are predicting who will look best doing drills in sunny climes. 

[jimmer]

Depends on what you think the purpose/meaning of a list like this is. Who was the best in 2014? Who will be the best in 2015?  Who will be the best for longer than that?  Who would return the most in trade?  Who will...  well, if they call it Top Ten Right Now!, right now it's February, so maybe they are predicting who will look best doing drills in sunny climes. 

The point of the rankings MLB Network is doing is who they believe are the top 10 at each position in the majors right now.  But you are cracking me up :-)

[jay]

9th best 2B.

 

I feel underwhelmed. I don't want to be the 9th best at anything.

If the roster was full of 9th best players at every position, we'd be in damn good shape.

 

Is there even another position player that would be top 10 right now? Probably not...

[TheLeviathan]

Remember when Mike Trout put up that amazing rookie WAR? Get this, the previous year his WAR was ZERO!!!!!

 

I hope Shredder treated him like those pesky Ninja turtles on that ranking list.

[jimmer]

ugh.  Did anyone watch the episode?  Who did the humans pick?  Because, as a human, I wouldn't have Altuve in front of Zobrist or Pedroia either. I'd have him 4th or 5th.  Likely 4th.

 

Astros second baseman Jose Altuve ranks sixth on the list created by MLBN's "Shredder". The "Shredder" take into account "a number of offensive and defensive metrics, both advanced and traditional, plus projections for the upcoming season". Brian Kenny ranked Altuve second, and Harold Reynolds ranked him third on their personal lists respectively.

[stringer bell]

If the roster was full of 9th best players at every position, we'd be in damn good shape.

 

Is there even another position player that would be top 10 right now? Probably not...

Maybe Plouffe.  If Santana plays acceptably at short and produces at 90% of his performance last year over a full season, he'd probably be a Top Ten SS (to big "ifs" there).

[Platoon]

I am not a prognosticator, but I do enjoy predicting things like the weather, the stock market, and the end of the world! By using a complex mathematical formula, and feeding it into my iPad, I am able to predict with a 96.4 degree of certainty that if your best player is rated 9th in his position, and you likely have no others at that lofty level, you are not going to have a great season.

[jimmer]

Maybe Plouffe.  If Santana plays acceptably at short and produces at 90% of his performance last year over a full season, he'd probably be a Top Ten SS (to big "ifs" there).

I think Plouffe should be top 10 right now.  I'm not sure there's 10 more I'd take over him right now.

[jay]

I think Plouffe should be top 10 right now. I'm not sure there's 10 more I'd take over him right now.

Yeah, Plouffe is probably fringe top 10. I think you could make the same case for Mauer.

 

Kind of interesting that the Twins offense was pretty darn solid last year despite so few "top 10" position players on top of a down year from Mauer. I can't quite decide if that means we have a bunch of guys who might be ready to climb these lists or if it means I should be more worried than I am about the offense.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'm not saying Twins fans shouldn't be excited about Dozier being the 9th best, but that's not something to get your hopes and dreams wrapped around. Yes, this ball club would be great with 9th best players all over the Diamond, but that's not what the Twins have.

 

I don't think Brian Dozier is top-10 in 2015, but I do think that when the dust settles on 2015 there may be a couple surprise names when you try to put together a top-10 list of position players for the season.