Article: Sizing Up The Competition: Detroit Tigers

[TheLeviathan]

Prospects are the currency of mid-season upgrades, and the 2015 Tigers are rather poor in that department. Though I suppose they may be willing to eat another team's salary dump (which would only make their long-term future bleaker).

 

And yet despite having a consistently bottom tier farm they keep finding ways to make big trades.  People make WAY too much of their bad farm.

 

I expect that when the wheels come off in Detroit that it is going to be a disaster, but I'm hard pressed to see that happening yet.  But it is likely to happen in the next three years.

[jimmer]

I agree with this assessment.  The Tigers have the deepest rotation in the division.  the question is how will their pen hold up.  

I'd say the Indians have the deepest and most talented rotation. And they are young with room to improve.

[Willihammer]

The Tigers have sort of flip flopped. Now the rotation is top heavy but the lineup looks pretty damn deep to me.

 

Davis/Gose

Kinsler

Cabrera

Martinez

Cespedes

Martinez

Castellanos

Avilla

Iglesias

 

with a rotation

 

Price

Verlander

Sanchez

Greene

Simon/Farmer/?

[sthpstm]

I don't buy Greene as Simon as actual league average starters, which is basically what Smyly, Porcello, Ray, et al were.  Greene came from nowhere for a nice 3 month stretch, but i expect a Diamond-esque plummet.  Simon out-pitched his metrics and is moving to the AL.  I also can't help but wonder how such a huge jump up in innings will affect him.  

Dombrowski has made some nice deals in the past but trading Fister, Smyly, Porcello, Ray and letting Scherzer walk will hurt in 2015 and the future.

I think age/regression/injuries, poor back end starting and depth, below average defense, and unreliable relief pitching make this is a .500 team as is; their starting pitching will no longer cover up their flaws.

[tobi0040]

And yet despite having a consistently bottom tier farm they keep finding ways to make big trades.  People make WAY too much of their bad farm.

 

 

Agreed. They have an owner willing to lose $30M a year on the team.  A farm is not as important in that environment.

[snarkerbarnyard]

I think the Tigers have one more run in them, but they'll most likely go nowhere fast in the postseason without any bullpen upgrades.

 

I think Detroit's main rivals in the central this year will be the White Sox.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Prospects are the currency of mid-season upgrades, and the 2015 Tigers are rather poor in that department. Though I suppose they may be willing to eat another team's salary dump (which would only make their long-term future bleaker).

They did just get David Price midseason without giving up prospects.

 

They've also been pretty good about knowing what prospects to deal (i.e. Jacob Turner for Anibal Sanchez a few years ago).

 

Sickels said it well:

 

 

 

While the system is thin in some senses, I don’t think it is weak. The Tigers have a strategy, they execute it well, and they’ve shown they can produce players who can fill holes, either through trade or direct insertion into the lineup when necessary.

...

The Tigers system doesn’t look too hot on paper yet they always have some prospects to trade, don’t they? That means something is being done right. Detroit’s scouts do the job they are asked to do and the farm system is competently run, even if the yearly winter lists don't excite us prospect fanatics.

[tobi0040]

spy, you can throw in Andrew miller and Cameron maybin in there as well.

[tobi0040]

Well this doesn't help their chances.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12284767/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-torn-medial-meniscus

[JB_Iowa]

Well this doesn't help their chances.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12284767/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-torn-medial-meniscus

 

 

OUCH!

[Seth Stohs]

Of course, now they'll go out and buy James Shields. Ha! Poor guy. Second time he'll have had this done in 4 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ouch. Too bad for Vic but them's the breaks of signing 36 year old players to four year deals.

[jimmer]

Ouch. Too bad for Vic but them's the breaks of signing 36 year old players to four year deals.

I feel bad for him, but I don't feel bad for the Tigers.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I feel bad for him, but I don't feel bad for the Tigers.  

Yep. Pretty much this.

[Thrylos]

I think that they will start pursuing Ryan Howard.

[jimmer]

I think that they will start pursuing Ryan Howard.

Oh, even better.  Let's hope they get him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well this doesn't help their chances.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12284767/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-torn-medial-meniscus

To be fair, a torn meniscus is much less severe than an ACL tear.  The latter sidelined Martinez for a full season a couple years ago (and prompted the Prince Fielder mega-contract).

 

Recovery time for a torn meniscus could be as little as 4-6 weeks.  He might miss opening day, but they don't necessarily need to acquire a season-long replacement this time.

[tobi0040]

To be fair, a torn meniscus is much less severe than an ACL tear.  The latter sidelined Martinez for a full season a couple years ago (and prompted the Prince Fielder mega-contract).

 

Recovery time for a torn meniscus could be as little as 4-6 weeks.  He might miss opening day, but they don't necessarily need to acquire a season-long replacement this time.

 

Yeah, he may miss a day or a month, who knows.  But he will miss the tune up and I would be more worried about his overall health and the $70M they owe him from ages 36-40.

[Kwak]

Yeah, he may miss a day or a month, who knows.  But he will miss the tune up and I would be more worried about his overall health and the $70M they owe him from ages 36-40.

You might just have well posted:  "He might end up like Joe Mauer and miss 90% of the season and 4-6 weeks in each of the next three seasons."  When speculating, why hold back?

[ashbury]

You might just have well posted:  "He might end up like Joe Mauer and miss 90% of the season and 4-6 weeks in each of the next three seasons."  When speculating, why hold back?

Meh.  Mauer's soft.  Martinez is a gamer.

_{^{/ and if anyone takes this bait...}}

[JB_Iowa]

From Bob Nightengale:

 

The #Tigers get encouraging news: Victor Martinez will be out only 4-6 weeks, and not months, after surgery today.

2:12pm - 10 Feb 15

 

Good news for the Tigers if it works out that way.

[bird]

"And yet despite having a consistently bottom tier farm they keep finding ways to make big trades.  People make WAY too much of their bad farm."

 

 

Maybe we need to re-phrase this: Despite having a bottom tier farm system, they kept finding ways to make big trades. But alas, after trading 6 of last year's top 10 prospects, their system has now hit rock bottom, and it's not even close. Their best prospect, Derek Hill, was ranked #98 by Baseball Prospectus ( a slot ahead of our 8th best prospect Burdi)  on the strength of his athleticism, despite very serious questions about his hit tool. He might not fetch more than a #4-5 starter at this point in time.

 

So, now with an aging roster and almost no trade chips, free agency is Dombrowski's only source for a "quick fix". If they get "unlucky" again in 2015 and have a few of their key aging vets performing below expectations, Dombrowski's options are down to about...none, really.

 

Their best prospects are now Buck Farmer, Steve Moya, and Hill, not Jacob Turner, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.

 

They have to stay healthy to win the division, IMO.

Edited February 10, 2015 by birdwatcher

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Tigers didn't exactly run away with it for most of the year this year. They were pretty bad for a while. As an aging team, those stretches of bad play only get worse. I don't think the win it. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they imploded like the Twins in 2011, but more likely that they finish around .500 and in the near future, start to look like the team that Verlander played on in his rookie year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Tigers didn't exactly run away with it for most of the year this year. They were pretty bad for a while. As an aging team, those stretches of bad play only get worse. I don't think the win it. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they imploded like the Twins in 2011, but more likely that they finish around .500 and in the near future, start to look like the team that Verlander played on in his rookie year.

The deeper we get into this offseason, the more I share this sentiment. Early on, I thought the Tigers were easily the best team but after looking over that roster a few times, I'm no longer convinced they're very good and suspect they could get really bad in a hurry.

[TheLeviathan]

"And yet despite having a consistently bottom tier farm they keep finding ways to make big trades.  People make WAY too much of their bad farm."

 

 

Maybe we need to re-phrase this: Despite having a bottom tier farm system, they kept finding ways to make big trades. But alas, after trading 6 of last year's top 10 prospects, their system has now hit rock bottom, and it's not even close. Their best prospect, Derek Hill, was ranked #98 by Baseball Prospectus ( a slot ahead of our 8th best prospect Burdi)  on the strength of his athleticism, despite very serious questions about his hit tool. He might not fetch more than a #4-5 starter at this point in time.

 

So, now with an aging roster and almost no trade chips, free agency is Dombrowski's only source for a "quick fix". If they get "unlucky" again in 2015 and have a few of their key aging vets performing below expectations, Dombrowski's options are down to about...none, really.

 

Their best prospects are now Buck Farmer, Steve Moya, and Hill, not Jacob Turner, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.

 

They have to stay healthy to win the division, IMO.

I've been hearing people say this for the better part of a decade. Hell, if you had asked me if they had the goods to land a top tier ace again last year I would've said "no" and yet they did it.

 

I'll put that tendency in the past tense when it's actually true. They've been bucking the wisdom in your post for a LONG time now.

Edited February 10, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[tobi0040]

I've been hearing people say this for the better part of a decade. Hell, if you had asked me if they had the goods to land a top tier ace again last year I would've said "no" and yet they did it.

 

I'll put that tendency in the past tense when it's actually true. They've been bucking the wisdom in your post for a LONG time now.

 

The only caveat here is they had the goods to land a 1.5 year rental of Price and two months of Sanchez.  They would not have had the goods to land, say the current asking price of Cole Hamels. 

 

Max was not an ace when they traded for him, he looked like an overhyped guy with a 4.50 ERA. 

 

Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were big time prospects at the time of that trade.  Turner is another guy who people really liked.

 

Their timing as noted by others has been phenomenal on virtually every one of these.

Edited February 11, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

24 year old Scherzer had a 3.0 WAR his first, and only, full year starting in Arizona.  During his brief time in Arizona, he sported a 3.73 FIP and a 3.86 ERA and more Ks than IP.  I don't think it was a stretch to think he might be extremely good. I don't think he was over-hyped.

Edited February 11, 2015 by jimmer

[bird]

I've been hearing people say this for the better part of a decade. Hell, if you had asked me if they had the goods to land a top tier ace again last year I would've said "no" and yet they did it.

 

I'll put that tendency in the past tense when it's actually true. They've been bucking the wisdom in your post for a LONG time now.

You're mistaken, at least when it comes to my own "wisdom". If you had asked me if they had the goods to land a top tier ace again last year, I would've said "yes". I would have followed that up by saying their strategy is one way to skin the cat, but in the long run results in unsustainability. Sooner or later, even the Ilitch's of the world hit the wall. Scherzer signed elsewhere, did he not? They traded off 6 of their 10 top prospects just last year, for God's sake. Their own rabid fans are worried sick that they lack future capacity to overcome the eventual decline.

 

Now, if they land another ace this year using "the goods" from their farm system? Yeah, then they'd be bucking the "wisdom of my post" for the first time.

Edited February 11, 2015 by birdwatcher

[TheLeviathan]

You're mistaken, at least when it comes to my own "wisdom". If you had asked me if they had the goods to land a top tier ace again last year, I would've said "yes". I would have followed that up by saying their strategy is one way to skin the cat, but in the long run results in unsustainability. Sooner or later, even the Ilitch's of the world hit the wall. Scherzer signed elsewhere, did he not? They traded off 6 of their 10 top prospects just last year, for God's sake. Their own rabid fans are worried sick that they lack future capacity to overcome the eventual decline.

 

Now, if they land another ace this year using "the goods" from their farm system? Yeah, then they'd be bucking the "wisdom of my post" for the first time.

 

I'm sorry, but I've been hearing about the demise of the Detroit Tigers thanks to a bad farm system for about 5 years now.  And every year someone thinks THIS is the year it bites them.

 

It hasn't bit them for a long, long time.  It will eventually, but they've proven remarkably resourceful time and time again.  I wouldn't bet against them just because your perception of their farm is weak.

Edited February 11, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[diehardtwinsfan]

It has more to do than just their farm though. The team is old. They have some superstars, granted, but it doesn't take much regression for them to suddenly be bad. They weren't exactly good for a pretty big stretch of last season. Given the team's age, I don't see how that's going to improve.