Keith Law's Top 100

[markos]

 

1.) Stewart was better at Cedar Rapids than Berrios was a year earlier and definitely profiles (from a scout's perspective) higher.

 

 

I think 'better' is kind of subjective in this case. Berrios had more strikeouts, lower FIP and more innings (a lot more if you include WBC stuff) at Cedar Rapids than Stewart managed last year. 

 

Stuff- and ceiling-wise, Berrios is behind Stewart (and Meyer), but he has demonstrated better durability. He has successfully pitched deeper into games with larger pitch counts and thrown significantly more innings than Stewart (and Meyer) the past two seasons. And he has avoided the DL, unlike Stewart this past year (and Meyer the past two seasons). 

 

As a bit of a tangent, how much do you factor durability into your pitcher rankings? Or is it too unpredictable to use except in the case of catastrophic injuries?

[Mike Sixel]

Law has been very consistent on this, college guys should not go to rookie ball and play against 17 and 18 year olds in his opinion. If they do, you should take their numbers with a grain of salt.

 

Given how often the Twins rookie team dominated, and didn't graduate many MLB players......in the dark years, seems like he has a point. I think people here (even those commenting on this part of the topic) have even made the same point.

[tobi0040]

Law has been very consistent on this, college guys should not go to rookie ball and play against 17 and 18 year olds in his opinion. If they do, you should take their numbers with a grain of salt.

 

Given how often the Twins rookie team dominated, and didn't graduate many MLB players......in the dark years, seems like he has a point. I think people here (even those commenting on this part of the topic) have even made the same point.

 

Yeah, the other point is that the 25 and under is a better gauge than simply looking at prospects.  The fact that Meyer was not promoted helps our minor league rankings this year.  Hopefully, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Burdi, and maybe even Berrios will graduate this year.

[gunnarthor]

This is another topic that keeps coming up that I hate. So, you think Walker should have jumped straight to Ft. Myers after being drafted as a 20 year old... he struggled there enough this year as a 22 year old... you think it would have made sense to start him there two years ago? I don't get that thinking. We saw what happened when the Twins started Levi Michael in High-A. Like Walker, he was young for his college draft class too. 

 

It doesn't mean that it shouldn't be part of his evaluation as a prospect. It's just that it would be silly to put a player in positions ahead of where they should be just because of some date of birth or background. They all need to be handled differently. 

Yep, and it's hardly unique to the Twins to let college guys play in rookie ball and the low minors - esp for a 3rd round pick. Their were a lot of 22 year olds in the Florida State league who were drafted out of college (including first rounders) who are on the same path as Walker. 

Now, whether or not Walker can make the jump at AA is a big question mark.  But I don't see how anyone could suggest that the Twins were harming his development thus far.

[nicksaviking]

Yep, and it's hardly unique to the Twins to let college guys play in rookie ball and the low minors - esp for a 3rd round pick. Their were a lot of 22 year olds in the Florida State league who were drafted out of college (including first rounders) who are on the same path as Walker. 

Now, whether or not Walker can make the jump at AA is a big question mark.  But I don't see how anyone could suggest that the Twins were harming his development thus far.

 

The Twins rarely let even college players go straight to the Midwest League and usually it still isn't cause for too much of an eye roll.  Adam Walker played some good teams at Jacksonville University, but it wasn't that great of competition.  Even hitters who come from major programs could perhaps use the remedial leagues to get adjusted to wood bats. 

 

It's the college arms from major conferences that go to rookie leagues that have me puzzled.  I'm not sure that guys like Aaron Slegers, DJ Baxendale or Taylor Rogers really needed to pitch against a bunch of teenagers, most of whom wouldn't be able to hit at the top half of the lineup in the SEC, ACC, PAC 10 or even Big 10.  Then you get the guys drafted because of percieved "high floors" like Alex Wimmers and Ryan Eades and you really wonder why they were initially thrown into a situation where they were put against what was supposed to be more fair competition.

 

I liked neither of those picks, but had they been capable of what they were drafted to do, they shouldn't have been in rookie leagues.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins rarely let even college players go straight to the Midwest League and usually it still isn't cause for too much of an eye roll.  Adam Walker played some good teams at Jacksonville University, but it wasn't that great of competition.  Even hitters who come from major programs could perhaps use the remedial leagues to get adjusted to wood bats. 

 

It's the college arms from major conferences that go to rookie leagues that have me puzzled.  I'm not sure that guys like Aaron Slegers, DJ Baxendale or Taylor Rogers really needed to pitch against a bunch of teenagers, most of whom wouldn't be able to hit at the top half of the lineup in the SEC, ACC, PAC 10 or even Big 10.  Then you get the guys drafted because of percieved "high floors" like Alex Wimmers and Ryan Eades and you really wonder why they were initially thrown into a situation where they were put against what was supposed to be more fair competition.

 

I liked neither of those picks, but had they been capable of what they were drafted to do, they shouldn't have been in rookie leagues.

 

I don't have any issues at all with college guys going to the Appy League. The hitters need to adjust to wood bats and the pitchers, typically, come into professional ball with overtaxed arms. That's why they all start out in the bullpen throwing very few innings. 

 

My frustration - and I'm not alone - is with the pace or promotions and with Buxton two years ago and Berrios last year, I'm pretty much over that too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agree on Berrios, but a couple of things:

 

1.) Stewart was better at Cedar Rapids than Berrios was a year earlier and definitely profiles (from a scout's perspective) higher.

I see your point but the comparison has faults:

 

1. Berrios is only six months older than Stewart and pitched in AAA last season, whereas Stewart hasn't even hit A+ ball

2. Berrios has flashed real strikeout ability, whereas Stewart has yet to start missing bats

3. Berrios has all those intangibles that people love in a prospect (hard worker, good attitude, very coachable)

4. Stewart wasn't really better than Berrios; one could make an argument that either player was better than the other during their respective Cedar Rapids seasons

 

Law has continually under-graded Berrios because of his size. Yeah, I get it... Size is a huge benefit the further you go up the ladder in baseball but after a time, you have to start questioning whether it's an issue for Berrios, just like it wasn't an issue for Pedro, Santana, or a bunch of other successful MLB players.

 

FYI, I'm still not 100% sold on Berrios and I openly questioned his draft slot because he's such a small guy but after multiple seasons of just killing it at every level, those doubts start to falter. Sometimes you have to question your own personal biases and whether they're clouding your judgment on a particular player. I think that is very much the case with KLaw and Berrios.

[bird]

I don't have any issues at all with college guys going to the Appy League. The hitters need to adjust to wood bats and the pitchers, typically, come into professional ball with overtaxed arms. That's why they all start out in the bullpen throwing very few innings. 

 

My frustration - and I'm not alone - is with the pace or promotions and with Buxton two years ago and Berrios last year, I'm pretty much over that too.

And it's funny how the pace of promotion quickens when the talent is demonstratively better. Two years ago, we didn't have many Thorpe, Stewart, Gordon, Buxton, and Berrios types.

 

With guys like Walker and Baxendale, guys with major flaws or underwhelming stuff, why would we assume either's development would have been better served starting in Advanced A because of some theory in Keith Law's head? 

[Seth Stohs]

It's not so much theory, it's about prospect rankings, and that's always something I am quick to argue. 

 

Kyle Gibson's first full year, he went straight to Ft. Myers and got to Rochester. That's really quick. 

DJ Baxendale's first full year, he started at Ft. Myers and quickly go to New Britain. He has really struggled there with results, injury, etc. He was a 10th round pick. I wouldn't rank him as high as Gibson would rank, but that doesn't mean that he can't get there. Just because he's from Arkansas doesn't mean he'll fly.

Taylor Rogers was an 11th round pick. He's moved up quickly. 

Jason Wheeler, a 7th or 8th round pick, needed to spend all of last year in Ft. Myers and spent half of this year in Ft. Myers, but he got something out of repeating that level and it served him well in AA. 

And JO Berrios got to AA before Wheeler which means they aren't slow to promote when guys are ready... even pitchers.

 

As for the Berrios/Stewart argument, I really agree with what Brock said above. Arguments can be made both ways on who was better in Cedar Rapids. I would add, however, that Berrios has been all-baseball all the time whereas Stewart had limited baseball time because he put so much time into football. We will likely need to be more patient with him because of it. It really speaks to the meaning in low minors numbers too. They can mean something, but not necessarily. 

 

And, I generally don't factor injuries too much in prospect rankings. At least not until they become a multi-year, continual thing. But if they're 19, 20, 21, it's just lost development time. 

[amjgt]

I guess what bugs me about Law's analysis of Berrios is the guy that he comped him to, in basically his first year in MLB, was one of the better pitchers on a World Series team, and was 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA.

 

Don't like those old-timey stats, Keith? How about 125 ERA+, 3.60 FIP, and just under 8 K/9.

 

Berrios is basically 2 years behind Ventura on the path to MLB, but he's 3 years younger. Comparing their stats at the same minor league levels, Berrios has either better numbers or FAR better numbers, every step of the way, while being at least 1 year younger than Ventura while he at that level.

[Steve Lein]

This is another topic that keeps coming up that I hate. So, you think Walker should have jumped straight to Ft. Myers after being drafted as a 20 year old... he struggled there enough this year as a 22 year old... you think it would have made sense to start him there two years ago? I don't get that thinking. We saw what happened when the Twins started Levi Michael in High-A. Like Walker, he was young for his college draft class too. 

 

It doesn't mean that it shouldn't be part of his evaluation as a prospect. It's just that it would be silly to put a player in positions ahead of where they should be just because of some date of birth or background. They all need to be handled differently. 

 

No, a lot of this is true, but I think it would have been advantageous for Walker to learn the lessons he (hopefully) did in the FSL sooner, as I tend to think he would have done the same in the FSL in his first full year, as he did in 2014 (due to his experience level), and he'd be a year further in his development at this point because of it.

 

My main reason for thinking this way, Mike touches on here:

 

Law has been very consistent on this, college guys should not go to rookie ball and play against 17 and 18 year olds in his opinion. If they do, you should take their numbers with a grain of salt.

 

Given how often the Twins rookie team dominated, and didn't graduate many MLB players......in the dark years, seems like he has a point. I think people here (even those commenting on this part of the topic) have even made the same point.

 

It's the same thing for a guy like Nick Burdi to me. Every single profile you could read about him before that draft said something along the lines of "He's a guy you can draft and send to AA right away." The Twins sent him to Cedar Rapids.

 

Aside from his first outing, Burdi blew everyone away in the MWL and FSL. Did they, or he, really learn anything they didn't already know by doing that? Seems like a waste of time to me.

[amjgt]

While I don't know Burdi personally, I would guess that he learned a lot. In the Max Murphy article he talked about the differences between college ball a and professional ball. For Max, that seemed to be a real positive thing. For others in might take a little more getting used to. In my opinion there is nothing wrong with taking that first half year to get used to your new lifestyle. Baseball is now his life and having a lot of success rather than struggles while you are learning this new lifestyle could be a big help. Having said that, I sure hope that the "Burdi-types" would get pushed in their first full year.

[bird]

So maybe we can quibble about Burdi spending a few weeks in Cedar Rapids once he signed after the CWS was over, or any number of guys who could have started in Advanced A instead of low A.

 

But this false narrative about the Twins sending out college players to pick on 17-18 year olds is getting real old. IIRC, when I checked in reaction to this narrative in each of the last 2-3 years by looking at the average age of Elizabethton versus other teams in the Appalachian league, I think our team was league-average, if not a couple months younger. And we haven't been stocking the GCL roster with collegiate picks.

 

So, I can accept as reasonable an argument for a given player to start a level higher here and there, which is what I'm hearing Steve Lein say.  But let's not pretend there's this wholesale practice of starting college guys at a level where they're facing recent high school grads.

[Seth Stohs]

My point on Walker is that he's ranked 14th through 19th in most Twins prospect rankings. It's not like anyone is putting him in their top 8 or something. He's clearly got things to work on. His prospect ranking indicates that. But it doesn't mean they should have pushed him more... In fact, in my opinion, it should be an indicator that they've pushed him either at the right pace, or maybe too fast. 

 

Age and level matter in prospect rankings. They shouldn't matter in an individual's development. Not everyone gets up to the big leagues before they turn 23 or 24. 

[tobi0040]

My point on Walker is that he's ranked 14th through 19th in most Twins prospect rankings. It's not like anyone is putting him in their top 8 or something. He's clearly got things to work on. His prospect ranking indicates that. But it doesn't mean they should have pushed him more... In fact, in my opinion, it should be an indicator that they've pushed him either at the right pace, or maybe too fast. 

 

Age and level matter in prospect rankings. They shouldn't matter in an individual's development. Not everyone gets up to the big leagues before they turn 23 or 24. 

 

Yeah, I can be convinced on Burdi, but not on Walker.  The K, BB, and OBP numbers tell me he shouldn't be pushed along much faster.