Who will be the 5th starter?

[Willihammer]

LEN3 talked to Rob Antony yesterday (18:00).

http://www.iheart.com/show/139-Common-Man-KFAN-FM-1003/?episode_id=27117866

 

Nothing new really. Milone was the first name Antony mentioned after Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes, and Santana. Said May could "challenge" for the 5th job and Peflrey could "battle" for it. Also said Stauffer could "be a valuable bullpen piece if he's not in the rotation."

[Jham]

I think Pelfrey would and should accept an assignment to AAA.  He's seemed loyal and apologetic to the organization for standing by him while he hurt the team by playing.  I believe if he opted for free agency and signed somewhere else (fat chance) he'd forfeit his contract with the Twins (fatter chance), no?  Then if he some how comes back to his pre-elbow and nerve surgery form (fattest chance) he can provide depth or bull pen help or hopefully a low level prospect or cash  sometime next season.

 

I'm super sick of waiting for pumpkins to turn into stage coaches.  I know we all love prospects because everyone on this site is invested in them or we wouldn't be posting here.  But no prospect should be given a spot in order to "see what we have".  If your strategy for improving your team is to ignore your scouts and just throw under-achieving blue chippers out there with fingers crossed and hoping against hope they will be better big leaguers than minor leaguers, well then we're back to pumpkins, stagecoaches, and more 90 loss seasons.  As in it baffles me that anyone could claim that a prospect is "blocked" on a 90 loss team.  If the best players don't play, where is the motivation to compete? Milone is most likely the best 5th starter.  If May isn't better than Milone, we need to trade May, not Milone or Nolasco before the clock strikes midnight and all of baseball knows our stagecoach prospect is actually a big orange pumpkin.  

[TheLeviathan]

How do you know if your pumpkin isn't a stagecoach when you never dig them up to find out? The big leagues are often the last and most difficult adjustment for any prospect, but they have to actually be there to adjust. I'm a firm believer that at some point there is nothing left to prepare you at AAA, but this organization has a weird tendency of stalling out arms when they get there.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

LEN3 talked to Rob Antony yesterday (18:00).http://www.iheart.com/show/139-Common-Man-KFAN-FM-1003/?episode_id=27117866Nothing new really. Milone was the first name Antony mentioned after Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes, and Santana. Said May could "challenge" for the 5th job and Peflrey could "battle" for it. Also said Stauffer could "be a valuable bullpen piece if he's not in the rotation."

Stauffer in the rotation? Ick

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yeah, not Stauffer, please.

 

I think the reason Spring Training will influence the decision on the 5th starter is that it is Pitching Coach Neil Allen's first spring seeing the candidates on a daily basis.

 

I doubt that the stats will matter too much - I'm guessing that Allen, Molitor, and Ryan will be discussing the options and make a decision based on the eyeball test.

 

I think something outside of the boxscore will determine the winner of this competition. Which guys get to the ball park first? Which ones, working closely with Allen, seem to "get it" - meaning Allen's style of coaching? Which guy has the best mechanics, and/or has shaken off the rust of the winter the most?

 

It's likely that all the #5 spot candidates will get multiple starts in 2015 for the Twins, it might not matter too much in the long run who breaks camp with the Twins.  

[jorgenswest]

I hope the plan is to have the best 5 pitchers in the starting rotation regardless of contract status. If Gibson, Meyer and May show they are better than Pelfrey, Nolasco and Milone, then they need to be in the 5.

 

Milone can be optioned. Pelfrey and Nolasco need to earn a spot in the pen also. If Tonkin or Burdi or Graham or Oliveros show they are better, they need the spot.

 

The Twins can't afford to take anything but the best 12 north this spring.

[bird]

Why, every year, do we keep fooling ourselves that spring training matters?

I'm in the camp that's guessing that Pelfrey and Milone had already pitched themselves out of favored status during 2014. If Meyer and May perform at or above expectations, I think Pelfrey and Milone will have to seriously turn some heads to win a rotation spot over either May OR Meyer absent a disappointing showing by them. Frankly, neither Nolasco or Gibson should be brimming with confidence that they will have a spot absent a solid showing, IMO. And I'd ask a second question: why would we fool ourselves into thinking that performances outside of spring training, for example, Milone's and Pelfrey's 2014 performances, won't factor in to the final decision. With Gardy and Andy gone, I'm not so sure we can hold to the theory that fringy incumbents will win out, or that it's strictly a spring training battle. After all, we haven't exactly been teeming with talented options out of our minor leagues for the last, um, decade.

[bird]

How do you know if your pumpkin isn't a stagecoach when you never dig them up to find out? The big leagues are often the last and most difficult adjustment for any prospect, but they have to actually be there to adjust. I'm a firm believer that at some point there is nothing left to prepare you at AAA, but this organization has a weird tendency of stalling out arms when they get there.

Levi, I'm asking this with an open mind to your argument: exactly which pitching prospects were stalled out by the Twins at AAA and not allowed to struggle and eventually thrive in MLB?

 

I won't buy Gibson or Meyer as an example.

[TheLeviathan]

Levi, I'm asking this with an open mind to your argument: exactly which pitching prospects were stalled out by the Twins at AAA and not allowed to struggle and eventually thrive in MLB?

 

I won't buy Gibson or Meyer as an example.

 

If you preface a question by knowingly eliminating the two obvious examples of evidence.....why ask the question?  You seem to have your mind made up already.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm in the camp that's guessing that Pelfrey and Milone had already pitched themselves out of favored status during 2014. If Meyer and May perform at or above expectations, I think Pelfrey and Milone will have to seriously turn some heads to win a rotation spot over either May OR Meyer absent a disappointing showing by them. Frankly, neither Nolasco or Gibson should be brimming with confidence that they will have a spot absent a solid showing, IMO. And I'd ask a second question: why would we fool ourselves into thinking that performances outside of spring training, for example, Milone's and Pelfrey's 2014 performances, won't factor in to the final decision. With Gardy and Andy gone, I'm not so sure we can hold to the theory that fringy incumbents will win out, or that it's strictly a spring training battle. After all, we haven't exactly been teeming with talented options out of our minor leagues for the last, um, decade.

 

Well, why did Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel make the team?  Why did Ricky Nolasco keep a spot for several months until an "injury" forced hiim out?  

 

Do I hope Molitor will be different than Gardy in that respect?  Yes, I do.  But Ryan is still in charge and still forming the roster, so while I share your hope that awful 2014 performances/injuries give a real window for those young guys to get the jobs, I think I'd rather see it happen first.  Afterall, we have mountains of evidence that shows this rarely happens out of ST and I can't think of a single example (outside of maybe Hicks and he all but had the road paved in gold for him to start no matter what he did) to the contrary.

 

I'm just a bit too practical to drop all that evidence because one guy changed in the organization that has largely stayed the same otherwise.

[bird]

If you preface a question by knowingly eliminating the two obvious examples of evidence.....why ask the question?  You seem to have your mind made up already.

Not at all. Gibson and Meyer are obvious examples of how INJURY can stall progress. Are you choosing to ignore this fact? And even were I to grant you those two "obvious" examples of the Twin's field staff blunderings, perhaps you'll give me a couple of other examples.

[TheLeviathan]

Not at all. Gibson and Meyer are obvious examples of how INJURY can stall progress. Are you choosing to ignore this fact? And even were I to grant you those two "obvious" examples of the Twin's field staff blunderings, perhaps you'll give me a couple of other examples.

 

The injury justification only lasts so long, both of those guys pitched well past that point in AAA.  Most reasonable people were frustrated with the feet dragging on both of those guys.  Trevor May last year as well.

 

Scott Baker threw almost 400 innings in AAA.  Slowey and Perkins threw around 200 down there.  All of this while other teams are frequently skipping AAA entirely to avoid arm abuse.

 

But most importantly - the two best pitching prospects the team has had since Liriano or Radke have been stalled while a laundry list of garbage has pitched in their place.

[bird]

Well, why did Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel make the team?  Why did Ricky Nolasco keep a spot for several months until an "injury" forced hiim out?  

 

Do I hope Molitor will be different than Gardy in that respect?  Yes, I do.  But Ryan is still in charge and still forming the roster, so while I share your hope that awful 2014 performances/injuries give a real window for those young guys to get the jobs, I think I'd rather see it happen first.  Afterall, we have mountains of evidence that shows this rarely happens out of ST and I can't think of a single example (outside of maybe Hicks and he all but had the road paved in gold for him to start no matter what he did) to the contrary.

 

I'm just a bit too practical to drop all that evidence because one guy changed in the organization that has largely stayed the same otherwise.

While I detested both decisions, my guess is that Ryan was concerned that Santana and Vargas would be best served by more development time during an inconsequential 2014 season and went cheap, as has been his MO, with Bartlett and Kubel. Gardy perhaps influenced his decision and yes, I believe they were slotted onto the roster before spring training ever got started. Did you see Santana and Vargas as better options going into 2014? So yes, maybe Ryan can be criticized for his roster construction.

 

Nolasco kept his spot for two reasons. One, because the Twins have historically, and perhaps tp a fault, been VERY patient with starters who struggle. Secondly, and more importantly, Yohan Pino and one or two others were brought in to solve the rotation problems created by Pelfrey and Deduno. You're making a rather specious connection to Nolasco staying in the rotation and your theory that Milone and Pelfrey are kind of pre-slotted in the rotation.

 

We agree, I think, that Gardy favored veterans over young players. We disagree, I think, that he did so when a young player was a clear-cut improvement. I think those notions tend to be a product of our own interests and tendency to over-hype the young guys until the flaws the Twins already see become evident to us as well.

 

And where you see mountains of evidence, maybe I see a molehill. To convince me, especially concerning the rotation, that there is this overwhelming and obvious evidence of a history of good prospects being stalled out in AAA in favor of mediocre veterans, I'll need examples. OK, Correia was brought in. Let's ignore whether he was a good decision in a vacuum and discuss exactly who he unfairly beat out. A post- TJ Gibson?

[bird]

The injury justification only lasts so long, both of those guys pitched well past that point in AAA.  Most reasonable people were frustrated with the feet dragging on both of those guys.  Trevor May last year as well.

 

Scott Baker threw almost 400 innings in AAA.  Slowey and Perkins threw around 200 down there.  All of this while other teams are frequently skipping AAA entirely to avoid arm abuse.

 

But most importantly - the two best pitching prospects the team has had since Liriano or Radke have been stalled while a laundry list of garbage has pitched in their place.

We'll have to agree to disagree regarding Meyer and Gibson. Neither pitched well for any prolonged period prior to being called up, and May was in his first year of AAA after looking a bit shaky in AA the previous year. Using Perkins as an example is perplexing to me, especially considering his early performance in MLB. Slowey spent a year, and was great, in AAA. He wasn't stalled there. Baker, fine. there's my molehill of evidence.

 

The two best pitching prospects, Meyer and May, were out-pitched for most of 2014 by other starters in 2014, but the more important thing that you and so many others choose to discount or ignore is that there were very very probably some legitimate reasons they remained in AAA, even beyond the injuries suffered by both of them. Why is it so hard to acknowledge this and refrain from the "laundry list of garbage" rhetoric that paints an unfair portrait of ineptitude regarding those decisions?

[TheLeviathan]

 One, because the Twins have historically, and perhaps tp a fault, been VERY patient with starters who struggle.

 

This right here is pretty good evidence to the contrary of your position.

 

No, my notion that veterans were favored happened right around the time I was subjected to Juan friggin Castro over Jason Bartlett.  And that tendency happened time and again, some more egregious than others.  We know from studies that the team promotes more slowly than any other team for the last decade as well.  And lastly, citing only Correia seems a bit silly since I shouldn't have to list the names of the bottom feeders we threw before Gibson or Meyer or May the last few years.  Only one of that laundry list of awful pitchers was named Kevin Correia, the other dozen or so not as much.   

 

If you could demonstrate, for example, that the team promotes players similarly to the rest of the league or is perfectly average in their promotion tendencies you might have a point.  I'd agree that it may be observer bias in that scenario.  But, instead, we have evidence that they are slower than everyone else.  It's not perfect evidence, of course, but it's far closer to justifying my stance than yours.

 

Also, I never called this "inept".  I would call it inexplicable, however.  And it's a tendency that appears to happen only to pitchers once they reach the high minors.  It appears to be an organizational philosophy that I don't understand.

[JB_Iowa]

While I detested both decisions, my guess is that Ryan was concerned that Santana and Vargas would be best served by more development time during an inconsequential 2014 season and went cheap, as has been his MO, with Bartlett and Kubel

 

I don't know how much of this was TR since it was near the beginning of his cancer treatments  Always sounded more like Rob Antony granting Gardy's wishes.. 

[tobi0040]

This right here is pretty good evidence to the contrary of your position.

 

No, my notion that veterans were favored happened right around the time I was subjected to Juan friggin Castro over Jason Bartlett.  And that tendency happened time and again, some more egregious than others.  We know from studies that the team promotes more slowly than any other team for the last decade as well.  And lastly, citing only Correia seems a bit silly since I shouldn't have to list the names of the bottom feeders we threw before Gibson or Meyer or May the last few years.  Only one of that laundry list of awful pitchers was named Kevin Correia, the other dozen or so not as much.   

 

If you could demonstrate, for example, that the team promotes players similarly to the rest of the league or is perfectly average in their promotion tendencies you might have a point.  I'd agree that it may be observer bias in that scenario.  But, instead, we have evidence that they are slower than everyone else.  It's not perfect evidence, of course, but it's far closer to justifying my stance than yours.

 

Also, I never called this "inept".  I would call it inexplicable, however.  And it's a tendency that appears to happen only to pitchers once they reach the high minors.  It appears to be an organizational philosophy that I don't understand.

 

I think the reason Meyer was not up was 100% about money.  He is a Boras client and we know that we have him for 6 years. If he reaches his potential, we have a zero percent chance of keeping him beyond that point, unless he pulls a Jared Weaver and defies Boras's drive to free agency.

 

So the Twins were sitting there and did not want to waste one of those years in a throw away year and a year in which he was only going to throw 80 pitches per start.

 

So now they have the guy from ages 25-31, hopefully five of those six years will involve some contention.

[Danchat]

 

Yeah, not Stauffer, please.

I heard talk of Deunsing or Swarzak getting a spot in the rotation last season around this time of the year. They'll probably tell Stauffer that he can win a spot but he'll end up getting Swarzak's role. It wouldn't be the end of the world if he had to start in 1 or 2 emergency starts (like Swarzak did in 2014).

 

I don't think there's anything to worry about. Stauffer isn't going to win a spot.

 

 

 

I hope.

[brvama]

Before I lay myself open to well-deserved scrutiny, here is my disclaimer. I wake up every morning happy I get to go to the bathroom before it's too late. And so far, I go to bed optimistic that I'll wake soon enough to avoid any accidents.

 

So here is my GUESS - May comes north as the 5th starter. Milone and Meyer to AAA, with Meyer at the top of the call list. Pelfrey, if still around, goes to the pen, probably as the long reliever.

 

Why?

 

#1. New coaches (Allen) and Manager. TR is going to give them every bit of a honeymoon with player needs and roster decisions. It is not in his best interests to create an environment where player personnel derail any mutual goals they have. He will, or at least should, want to give PM as much as he requests, within reason, to right the ship. If not, TR is the next one out the door. I think, (hope?), that we can say goodbye to Gardy's penchent for veteran superiority in player decisions. Yes I'm optimistic that the club will be different than the past decade.

 

#2. May's tryout last fall showed improvement to the point of a legit backend starter. Molitor witnessed that. UNLESS, their were obvious flaws that need work on in AAA, I can't see them demoting him - what would that tell him. While Allen is unfamiliar with May (& Meyer), he is familiar with young pitchers and I think that bodes well for our prospects. As someone has already mentioned ST conduct and impressions will go a long way with both M&M. Yes, I am optimistic that the prospects finally get their due.

 

#3. As with May, both Milone and Pelfrey showed what they had last year. Neither were compelling enough to be slotted in front of May based on LY's performance to start 2015. If Milone does have an option left, he could easily be stashed in AAA until a need arrives (after Meyer, of course.) Pelfrey I think has the most to make up but will likely start in the pen IF he is anywhere close to servicable. Yes, I am also optimistic that filler veterans will now become fillers of depth and short-term needs.

 

#4. Dawn of a new age. Finally, I am optimistic that there is a change in how things have been done in the past. Player acquisitions, change in team management philosophy, new influence form different background and experiences, and finally, starting to see change coming from the farm system. It's a process, still in the works, but is showing growth.

 

Now, For these four, spring will be very important on whether they come north or not. It is very possible that someone could implod, or someone could blow the doors off. That definitely changes the result. But for now, I have etch May as the 5th starter in the snow.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Dave is right here.  Pelfrey will be in the pen most likely baring total melt downs from Meyer, May, and Milone.  I think the front runners right now are May and Milone (and I'm rooting for May).  I somewhat expect Milone to be the first guy up if someone is hurt unless Meyer figures out the walk issue and is dominating AAA like May was last year. 

 

I think, if anything, this season is going to tell us the future of Kyle Gibson.  If he manages to bring up the K rate and improve on a pretty good first full year, it will make for a nice dilemma for management.  Because right now (with a similar season as last year), I think that Gibson will likely be traded next season to make room for Meyer (especially with Berrios, Rogers, and Duffy all knocking on the door)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Side note, and slightly off topic, but this season should be a real good indicator on how much of our management frustrations were on Gardy and how much were on Ryan.  It will be real interesting to see what changes with Gardy no longer managing the team.

[Twodogs]

Milone right now is the only pitcher with any sort of ok track record.  He has almost a .600 winning percentage going into this year, lifetime.  Pelfrey has a shaky track record.  No he is not that hard throwing strikeout king that everyone wants, but the Twins have Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana who should do better in the bat missing catagory than their predesesors have over the last 15 years or so with the exception of Johan and Liriano.  If Gibson can return to form and strike out some guys then the Twins dont really need another strike out guy.  They need a guy who can go out there and give them innings so as to reduce the stress on their bullpen which Milone can do and has done well over the years.  Milone is not a dynamic pitcher who needs to find himself so if he is ineffective they will be able to determine that within about 4 starts and typically Milone is a better first half pitcher rather than second half pitcher over his career, that is probably an effect of he needs less time to get his mechanics worked out since he is not a strike out guy he is a lefty that pitches to contact and has done pretty well the last 3 years.  He was bad for a month for the Twins last year, but May also had a 7.88 era and a 1.77 whip so I really don't see the improvement here either.  I think that they should start with Milone and give him a chance and if he doesnt do well then if May is doing well bring him up.  If May isn't doing well bring up Meyers.

[gunnarthor]

Last year, the conventional wisdom was that Gibson would start in AAA b/c he had options and the Twins had to protect Diamond, Worley and Deduno, which was going to be hard to do.  Instead, the Twins went with the best pitcher (Gibson) and worried about the ramifications later.  I expect they'll do something similar this year.  And we still have time to worry about a ST injury, trade etc.  It'll sort itself out.

 

By the end of the seasons, I expect the five pitchers who made the most starts for the Twins will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Meyer and May but those might not be the April starters.

[Twodogs]

Last year, the conventional wisdom was that Gibson would start in AAA b/c he had options and the Twins had to protect Diamond, Worley and Deduno, which was going to be hard to do.  Instead, the Twins went with the best pitcher (Gibson) and worried about the ramifications later.  I expect they'll do something similar this year.  And we still have time to worry about a ST injury, trade etc.  It'll sort itself out.

 

By the end of the seasons, I expect the five pitchers who made the most starts for the Twins will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Meyer and May but those might not be the April starters.

Wow, you pretty much think Nolasco is done?  I think he has a decent track record going into last year, he has always done a pretty good job of not walking a lot of people and has been able to whiff a few people here and there.  I hope Nolasco bounces back and gives an effort close to his norms.  If he doesn't I think the Twins will be in for a long season.  I like your post because you make a good point, but I hope Nolasco bounces back.

[gunnarthor]

Wow, you pretty much think Nolasco is done?  I think he has a decent track record going into last year, he has always done a pretty good job of not walking a lot of people and has been able to whiff a few people here and there.  I hope Nolasco bounces back and gives an effort close to his norms.  If he doesn't I think the Twins will be in for a long season.  I like your post because you make a good point, but I hope Nolasco bounces back.

I think Nolasco gets traded sometime.