What are Wins worth?

[DocBauer]

I've been thinking about this since Gibson won his 13th the other night and after Hughes impressive win today. What is the value in a W-L record? We all want our team to win, and we conversely want our pitchers, especially starters, to have said wins. But I have read various opinions previously, including right here on TD that Wins aren't really an accurate measurement of a pitchers ability or effectiveness.

 

The same argument has been made before in reference to RBI as well. To which I would claim RBI may or may not always be indicative of total production, but if driving in runs wasn't important, you might as well draw names out of a hat to set up a lineup.

 

Certainly a W-L record may not completely reflect a pitchers ability, production or full value. We all remember King Felix's amazing 2010 season in which he only won 13 total games, vs 12 losses, but won the Cy Young for a poor and losing team with absolutely dominating numbers that screamed out loud he had the finest season for a SP in the AL that season.

 

But someone has to actually "win" a game, don't they? And hopefully, it's your team, our team, and hopefully the SP has pitched well enough to earn that win. After all, that shows a stronger overall team doesn't it? Hughes has had the kind of year I hoped he would, and thought he was capable of. To me, the only disappointment is that he only won 16 games as I feel he pitched well enough to have another 1-3 wins in that total. While not a true ACE pitcher, he's often pitched like a #1 starter much of the season. (There is a difference, subtle, but a difference) His BA against might be rather ordinary, and his 3.52 ERA, while very good, doesn't necessarily speak of dominance, but 200+ IP 186-16 SO to BB ratio and1.13 Whip are pretty outstanding. For a team that is better, somewhat, finally moving in the right direction, but still going to probably lose 90 games again, it makes his work this year all the more impressive.

 

What about Gibson? There is no question he has suffered from real bouts of inconsistency this season. A bit maddening at times, truth be told. But also not unexpected for a young SP in his very first full ML season with only 10 starts and 51 IP at the ML level coming in to the season. He was basically a rookie in every way but technically. His bouts of poor performance and 4.50 ERA are disappointing, and his SO totals leave something to be desired. Still, he's made 30 starts, has pitched a 172 innings with one more start left, has only allowed 2 more hits than IP, has an almost exact 2-1 SO-BB ratio, and BA against slightly lower than Hughes, a decent 1.33 Whip and 13 wins.

 

I hate to put the cart before the horse, but if he can pitch decently in his final start, say 6 innings and gain a final win, he'd be pushing 180 IP and 14 wins for his "rookie" season. Impressive? It is to me, especially for a losing record team.

 

Maybe wins aren't everything when measuring a pitcher's total performance, but you have to pitch well enough to be in position for those wins, especially on a losing team, and pitching well enough to keep getting your turn in the rotation as well. Yes? So I guess what I'm asking is how valuable are wins? And how good do you feel about both Hughes and Gibson filling 2 of the 5 SP spots heading in to next season?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

16-10, eh Carl Pavano went 16-11 in 2011. Pretty much the same. Certainly nothing impressive like 186 strikeouts to 13 walks in 209.2 innings

[stringer bell]

Wins mean something, but they don't tell the whole story.  Hughes had an excellent season, and Gibson had an erratic season, but demonstrated quite a bit, despite some disturbing numbers.  Who was the last player that the Twins signed and developed that won more than 12 games for them?  My guess would be Scott Baker, but I'm not sure.

[stringer bell]

16-10, eh Carl Pavano went 16-11 in 2011. Pretty much the same. Certainly nothing impressive like 186 strikeouts to 13 walks in 209.2 innings

Pavano won 17 in 2010.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Pavano won 17 in 2010.

thats what I get for relying on memory.... you are right, which diminishes the comparative value of wins as a metric for pitchers even further. In this instance 2014 Hughes isn't even as good as 2010 Pavano.

[Craig Arko]

A win is worth about 1/90th of a playoff spot.

[Badsmerf]

Wins are important. Pavano also had a very good team playing behind him that season. I once thought they were meaningless, but I do think they have value now. A pitcher had to pitch well enough to meet the qualification for a win, and that hasn't been too common for the twins in the last few years.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't agree that some"one" needs to win.....the team wins and loses, if that is your question. To me, the value of a pitcher "win" is near zero.

[drjim]

I see record as an extremely quick and dirty look at how a pitcher pitched that season on a game in game out basis. Says something about individual games that can be lost when looking at the cumulative stats and can be a quick comparative across players and seasons, but not nearly as good as FIP, xFIP, ERA + and -, and others like those.

 

Gibson is a great example, has mediocre cumulative season stats but W-L shows that he was good a little over half the time, which is close to accurate, and that he had some value this season that might be lost in cumulative stats.

 

And I still think innings is the most important stat for a starting pitcher.

[Shane Wahl]

At minimum, a starter getting a win means he went at least five innings. On this team, that is an accomplishment!

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think if the pitcher "win" is at all significant, it would be for starters only.

 

Once the bullpen gets involved, which of the relievers was pitching in the half inning before your team took the lead is mostly irrelevant. Holds and saves would be of value because they denote that a lead was preserved.

 

For a starter, as others have mentioned, to get the Win a Starter has to last long enough (more than half of the game) and allow fewer runs than his opposing starter. A lot of that is out of the Pitcher's control, so the "Quality Start" stat seems to be a compromise.

 

Personally, I think the Quality Start isn't quite good enough - 6 or more innings, 3 or fewer runs might be a great outing for Kevin Correia, but the team with a rotation full of guys that aren't better than that will lose a lot of games.

[Badsmerf]

I don't agree that some"one" needs to win.....the team wins and loses, if that is your question. To me, the value of a pitcher "win" is near zero.

That can't be true. The best pitchers in the league usually win the most games because they give their team a better chance to win the game. I believe there is a big difference between winning 20 games and winning 15. Plus, w/l percentage means something too. Now, a pitcher can't control run support, but they do control how often they go deep enough into games to get a decision. 

 

I think there is something to be said for starting pitchers that have good winning percentages. A bad pitcher won't win 2x more games than he losses, but a bad pitcher could be over .500. That is the problem, you have to have perspective with the stat. Looking at wins, Gibson and Cosart both have 13 wins, 11 losses and 10 losses respectively. Cosart has a few more strikeouts. Pretty similar pitchers. Gibson's ERA is 4.5, Cosart's is 3.7. Gibson did allow a few more hits, but walked less. Pretty similar pitchers, with the outling statistic being ERA.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, we don't agree at all. Wins are a team stat. They are a tiny indicator of how good a pitcher is.

 

I knew I should have just avoided this, we've been over this space 100x.

[ashbury]

Back of the envelope calculation based on team payrolls is that wins are worth a couple million dollars apiece.  Whatever fraction of that you want to assign to the starting pitcher would be a place to begin discussion.

[bird]

Over the years, I've tended to be drawn to certain pitchers on the basis of my perception that the pitcher is a bulldog. I remember Mudcat Grant, perhaps falsely, as one of those guys who pitched well enough to stay in line for a win. Despite the fact that Camilo Pascual and Jim Kaat were beautiful to watch, I'd choose to go see Mudcat. I have no clue as to the accuracy of my perception, but I feel quite confident that the trait itself, bulldoggedness, and winning are at least marginally correlated.

 

What I value is guys that can at least fool me into thinking they're more determined to win than the next guy. And because I want to believe there's at least some connection, I put a small premium on the guy with a favorable W-L record.

[jay]

Here's a reasonable look at how to value pitcher wins:

http://www.raysindex.com/2009/09/debunking-the-myth-wins-is-a-useless-statistic-for-starting-pitchers.html

 

There's some correlation to the pitcher's actual performance, but not enough to make it very useful even with a season worth of starts.

[Badsmerf]

Here's a reasonable look at how to value pitcher wins:

http://www.raysindex.com/2009/09/debunking-the-myth-wins-is-a-useless-statistic-for-starting-pitchers.html

 

There's some correlation to the pitcher's actual performance, but not enough to make it very useful even with a season worth of starts.

Nice article. That is pretty much my opinion. It isn't a great statistic, but it tells you something about a pitcher. I don't think it should hold much weight for a Cy Young, but it is still going to be a consideration.

 

Side note. I feel like Santana was often screwed out of Wins by Gardy. He would end the 7th or 8th at 100 pitches constantly and go on to lose or get a n.d. One of the other variables against w/l.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

An example of a worthless win stat:

Say a guy throws seven shoutout innings, then is replaced in the top of the eighth becuase he's thrown 125 pitches already. The game is tied 0-0 heading into the eighth. In the top of the inning the reliever gives up 3 runs, giving our starter a ND. in the bottom of the inning, the home team rallies, scoring 5 runs and the final score after another scoreless inning is 5-3. The guy who came in and gave up 3 runs is technically the winning pitcher....