Payroll: 2014 and moving forward. Time to examine.

[DocBauer]

Will Gardy be dismissed? Will he be kept for the final year on his contract? Will the Twins FO let him keep his staff intact if he stays? i.e. the much debated Anderson.

 

Jim Pohland seems committed to moving forward and doing what it takes to do so. Reference the opening comments to this thread. Also reference the Twins blowing up their past frugal and overly conservative nature to sign Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey back again, (group Ugh), still make a move for Garza, and then bring in K Morales for an attempt to spark things.

 

At the end of the day, it comes down to players. It comes down to the system. It comes down to what you have, what you need, what's coming up, and what you are prepared to do. Despite the incredible facility of Target Field the Twins finally got built, despite their own contributions, despite the fact it might be the best facility in all the ML's, despite huge investments in the minor leagues, and possibly the best facility in all the minors in the newly improved and open Ft Meyer complex, it still comes to financial investment. Hopefully, that financial investment is spent wisely. With all the, dare I say "amazing", moves the Twins have made, at some point, finances DO have an impact on the final product. The Twins have, I believe, spent very wisely in many areas. I truly believe we follow and love a franchise that has been a bit conservative in the past, but has also taken tremendous steps forward from international scouting, to foreign academies, to attempting to build a mild system, as a whole, that can be the envy of all of baseball.

 

But it still comes down to wins and losses on the field, after all, and the finances that take place. I am not being long winded. I am making a point. Despite an on the field product that is headed toward a 4th possible 90 loss season, the Twins haven't exactly been stuck in neutral. However, barring a HUGE change in the economics of baseball, the Twins will never have the finances of a NY or LA or Chicago or Boston, to name a few of the top revenue areas. But they are no longer the little brothers of the poor, especially if the turnstiles keep turning.

 

Beginning 2014 season payroll pegged the Twins in 24th place amongst all ML teams at $85,776,500. Some might scoff at the Twins ranking 24th, but considering their transitory status, I actually find that somewhat encouraging. The Twins were willing to spend more, but were rebuffed by Garza, and did add to the payroll for at least a portion of the season with the Morales signing. But for this article, we're talking about begining payroll.

 

For perspective, the Dodgers began the season with a high of a little over $235M, and Houston brought up the rear at around $45.5M. In the AL Central, the Twins began the season in 4th place behind Detroit at just shy of $163M, the KC Royals at just over $92M, the ChiSox at a close barely over $91M, and ahead of Cleveland's $82.5M in 5th place.

 

Without boring to tears, removing Hammer, Correia, Burton, Kubel, Diamond, Deduno, Florimon and probably Colabello, the Twins enter the offseason at a payroll of just shy of $66M. If Duensing is not brought back, the number drops to about $64M. Add in Suzuki's signing and we are between 67 and 69M committed. Toss in...say...a max of $4M in raises and the Twins payroll ends up between $71-73M before any moves take place. That would place them in 28th place for 2014 payroll, for comparison, just below the Rays.

 

Where does this leave us? Obviously with money to spend, hopefully wisely. Let us take the fan base of TD, mostly intelligent and educated, (come on...smile), and agree the Twins need to make at least one big OF signing. That player could be a $5M make good or last looks player, or as much as an $8-12M player. We'll play the average and say $10M. I believe there is also a general consensus for a quality RHRP to be signed. Shall we say $4M as a good, average, predictable salary? So that's a total of $14M added to payroll brining us to $87M, good for the same 24th place on the ML payroll ladder to begin the 2014 season.

 

There is a large movement to also sign a temp CF option to avoid another Hicks opening day assignment. I'm not here to argue, just spout numbers for numbers and perspective sake. Buxton is kinda, sorta a sure thing. But he's not here yet. But he very much could be at some point in 2015. I've heard mention of Span returning to the Twins, and I'd absolutely love to see that happen. But he's having one of his very best seasons for the Nats, and they can pick him up for $9M. I have a hard time believing they won't either pick him up, or, work out a smaller deal over longer time. I'm not sure exactly who else would be left. So for now, I'm leaving this alone and will come back later.

 

Some have clamored for a Shields, Scherzer, Lester signing to give the team a #1 SP though it might be beyond a 4 year contract. Fair enough. NOT arguing merits, just facts. That has to be $18-22M per. Splitting the medium, that's $20M per however long. That would put the Twins at $107M before signing a FA CF who could fill in at least on a temp basis. This puts the Twins around 15 in total ML payroll when considering 2014 numbers, without signing a CF option, even a temporary one.

 

Point is? None really. Just an excrescences to everyone where payroll was, will be, and could be depending on how it's spent. The rest is up to you to digest.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could definitely see getting an LF for 3 year deal and a 1 year stop gap in CF. Based on the FA market though, I don't think there's much for options out there unless the Twins want to pickup a decent production on a bad contract.

[Brandon]

I can see a LF signing or another starting pitcher.  I also wonder about trading for a starting pitcher instead of signing one.  The market is a lot smaller this year and we have pieces to trade for once.

 

I don't see us signing a bullpen arm or CF.  I am unconcerned about payroll and more concerned about winning.  Payroll is only a concern when it keeps us from getting the players we need to win.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see a good OF option for a multi year deal, other than Melky, and he'll be in NY or TOR I think. I could see another 4th OF/hope guy though......

 

As for pitching, we'll see. But I expect a middling guy or two to be signed, to a 2 year, head scratching, deal, and for them to be predictably bad. I don't see this team outbidding anyone for a really good FA this year.

 

We need to wait for TR to be gone for that to happen, imo.

 

And, I doubt they deal prospects(s) for MLB players, so I'm not sure we see the payroll even as high as this year. Whatever. This team is bad, really bad, and doesn't look much better next year w/o Sano/Buxton/Meyer being ready.

 

I'll probably be living in Denver by then, so I'm likely to be jealous of how good the Twins are.....

[Riley Roy]

Doc I don't want to be a Debby Downer, but I guess Gardy and all coaches except Molitor will be back. No blockbuster free agent signings or trades will be made. Ryan will count on our young players and minors coming up. That said .500 will be within reach prompting a multiple year contract for Gardy and his staff.

 

I like Gardy--I just think it is time for new leadership.

 

As much as I would like Gardy replaced----I am really tired of Dick and Bert and I would suffer thru another Gardy/Anderson year or two if we could get someone else to do the play by play. I can live with Bert--but Dick is so stale and such a homer.

[Willihammer]

I'd definitely look at Tomas for a corner OFer. Barring that, I'd talk to the Dodgers about swapping Nolasco for Kemp or Crawford.

 

Among FA SPs, I like Maeda, Santana and Liriano.

 

Among FA relievers I like the 2013 Red Sox WS team -Uehara, Tazawa, Miller are all FA's, am I forgetting anyone?

[howeda7]

They definitely need to add a starter:

 

If they're willing to spend: Shields, Liriano, Santana, Gallardo, McCarthy

 

Cheap(er) make good options: Edinson Volquez, Justin Masterson, Jake Peavy, AJ Burnett

 

Cheap make good options: Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd, Josh Johnson

 

Of these, I'm most intrigued by Volquez and Masterson. Masterson could be a 2015 Phil Hughes, IMO.

 

I'd probably add Colby Rasmus and Masterson. Adding both should still leave payroll under $100 million.

[drjim]

They definitely need to add a starter:

 

If they're willing to spend: Shields, Liriano, Santana, Gallardo, McCarthy

 

Cheap(er) make good options: Edinson Volquez, Justin Masterson, Jake Peavy, AJ Burnett

 

Cheap make good options: Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd, Josh Johnson

 

Of these, I'm most intrigued by Volquez and Masterson. Masterson could be a 2015 Phil Hughes, IMO.

 

I'd probably add Colby Rasmus and Masterson. Adding both should still leave payroll under $100 million.

 

I would support a Masterson and Rasmus offseason. Realistic too. I think Shields gets too much, so a make good option could be very shrewd if they choose wisely.

[DocBauer]

If we were to actually add one of the "top" SP's, plus a quality RP, and a quality LF with at least a decent CF option, which would be very cool, it could conceivably push payroll to the 110M+ mark. Can the Twins afford that? I don't doubt it a bit, especially if it gets the public excited and the turnstiles spinning for a potentially winning club mixed with a lot of exciting youngsters as well. That kind of payroll would put the Twins in the upper third, and in think that's more than OK, especially with the aggressiveness they showed last offseason on signings, and guys they tried to add, even the Morales look-see. And I think Pohlad is ready to spend more. Now, whether everyone is ready to move that far that fast may be a different story.

[Danchat]

I would browse the starting pitcher options, but I will guess that the Twins will decline any megadeals to Scherzer or Price. Perhaps if they see a potential bargain they will pounce on it like they did with Hughes-a bargain in their eyes but not in other teams'.

 

I think we should sign a LF to a 2-4 year deal. I'm not so sure about a short term CF because Buxton could be here soon... Hicks and Schafer could hold down CF but that'd be quite unpopular with the fans...

 

I think the Twins should add a bullpen arm, but we'll see. They might go dumpster diving for a reliever and see if they can find treasure out of someone else's trash. (I'm thinking a la Jared Burton)

[TheLeviathan]

I would support a Masterson and Rasmus offseason. Realistic too. I think Shields gets too much, so a make good option could be very shrewd if they choose wisely.

 

Yup, sign me up for that as well.  I think the Twins could do well with Masterson.

[drock2190]

Rasmus would really help the Twins chase the single season strikeout record for a team.

 

Between him and Arcia they could cool the fans off in the heat of the summer.

[kab21]

Masterson doesn't interest me much.  He had one good season and he doesn't really have swing and miss stuff despite the K's in his one good season.  This season his velocity was down 2-3mph (88.9mph) and there's a chance that he's injured. 

 

I would prefer that the Twins concentrated their resources this offseason on either the OF'er or SP'er and at least end up with one above average player. 

[Dman]

Doc I don't want to be a Debby Downer, but I guess Gardy and all coaches except Molitor will be back. No blockbuster free agent signings or trades will be made. Ryan will count on our young players and minors coming up. That said .500 will be within reach prompting a multiple year contract for Gardy and his staff.

I like Gardy--I just think it is time for new leadership.

As much as I would like Gardy replaced----I am really tired of Dick and Bert and I would suffer thru another Gardy/Anderson year or two if we could get someone else to do the play by play. I can live with Bert--but Dick is so stale and such a homer.

I tend to agree. The Twins will stand pat And plan on bringing up the kids from the farm next year. They also have players to protect on the 40 man so they won't make Any big moves this offseason. I don't think we have any guys to trade as we lack depth as it is. We need to build with the guys we have so that we can make room on the 40 man for next year as there will be tough decisions to make on several players. The players are coming and they need a spot at the mlb level to grow with the team. They can make an acquisition but what price are they willing to pay to make it? It needs to be someone really good to make it worth it IMO.