Getting to .500

[gunnarthor]

Don't take this thread too seriously, it should be mostly for fun.  Neyer posted a few years back that a .500 team should have about 35-37 WAR - (and WAR has a lot of problems and I don't really like it but it's simple back of the napkin calculations make these kind of threads simple).

 

This years team has amassed about 23 WAR - 16 from position players and 7 from pitchers.  The team, then, needs to get about another 12 WAR, either from improvements or getting rid of some bad players.

 

Position players: 5 guys who shouldn't be part of the future (Parm, Colabello, Morales, Herrmann and Kubel) managed -4.4 WAR.  Just giving those 875 PA to (hopefully) Mauer and Vargas should improve the team.

 

Assuming that everyone else stays the same (a bad assumption), the Twins would still need another 7.5 WAR improvement - a lot of that can come from a bounce back Mauer season (say 2 more WAR) and improved rotation.  Pino and Correa combined for about 34 starts and 0 WAR.  Nolasco had another 25 starts at 0 WAR.  So a lot of room to improve there.

 

Assuming that Gibson and Hughes can again combine to be worth about 5.5 WAR or more in 60 starts, they could expect some realistic improvements.

 

Nolasco goes from 0 to 1 WAR in 25 starts

May goes from -1.0 WAR to 1 WAR in 20 starts

Milone goes from -1.0 to 1 WAR in 20 starts

That's a 5 WAR improvement and, with a better Mauer, pretty close to 35 WAR.

 

They'd need 37 starts to be covered by Meyer, Swarzak, Duensing, Pino, etc. to be better than 0 WAR, of course.

[RedBull34]

of course there is room for regression too....

Santana, Vargas, and Suzuki all have that threat easy, and I'm worried about Hughes as well....

 

However, I think the Twins will be better next year, the prospects are finally starting to break through.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd expect improvement from Mauer, Arcia, Gibson, May, and maybe Plouffe. To counter that, though, I'd expect a drop off from Vargas and Santana.

 

I think the best place to make up the difference would be targeting improvements in the OF.

[notoriousgod71]

Just trade for Alex Gordon.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Just trade for Alex Gordon.

The Royals would take Duensing for Gordon, right? The ol' Duenslinger can be traded for anyone in theory.

 

I agree with the original post in that the Twins will be better next year if they can remove the players that are creating negative value from the roster.  Some of them have been off the team for some time - Bartett, Kubel, Morales, etc.

 

I don't know if Milone is due to turn his performance around, or if his past success was related to his big home field advantage in Oakland. Adding a starting Pitcher to the current staff that can amass 2 or greater WAR for 2015 and push one of the fringe candidates to the bullpen or AAA can make a huge difference. Adding even a 0 WAR (defensively) player to LF could mean a much improved team overall.

 

Santana's been playing well above expectations, I hope it continues, but I would not be shocked if he had a bit of a "sophomore slump" in 2015 just because the league will have better scouting on him and will make adjustments.

[Monkeypaws]

90 losses sounds like a lot, and is a lot, but 10 more wins, and you are a .500 team. A little improvement can go a long way.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It wouldn't be unheard of to see a young player bust on the scene with a 6-8 WAR their first full season. This could mean Sano or Vargas next year, Buxton the year after. Trout hung a 10.0 his first season.

 

Also, Florimon's WAR was -0.2 which describes an inherent flaw in this stat. I like to see a better way to quantify Florimon's mistaken June call up. 

 

Priority #1 - starting pitching   

Priority #1a - outfield defense. I think Schafer might be an answer. Note that I did not say will be the answer.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Schafer is absolutely an upgrade in defense in Left field. Personally I would like for him to be a fourth outfielder for the Twins, meaning that a guy with a better bat would be starting in his place.

 

Schafer and Hicks sharing CF/LF in 2015 is not the worst thing that could happen, but it seems to me that it would not be all that hard for the Twins to do better than that in the offseason. Schafer/Hicks (assuming Hicks will be better than he was this year) beats the defensive alignments that involved Colabello, Parmelee, Willingham, etc. Lose a little offense this way.

[Mike Sixel]

In the vein of non-seriousness:

 

May adds 2 WAR over the scrubs that started this year

Nolasco is 2 WAR better

Mauer is 2 WAR better than the scrubs this year

Vargas is 2 WAR better than the scrubs this year

Hicks/Schaefer are 2 WAR better (you know, that defensive part of WAR)

Suzuki is 1 WAR worse (ooops, sorry)

Miracle signing of Melky Cabrera brings 3 WAR

 

there you go, that's in the range......

 

The only unrealistic one, I believe, is the last. Finding 3-5 WAR in the OF is big for next year......

[gunnarthor]

I was looking at the last Twins team to have a big jump - 2000 to 2001.  The position players in 2000 amassed about 6 WAR total, the next year they amassed 26.  Three big gains:

1) Corey Koskie had a 6+ WAR season

2) Two former top 100 prospects had breakout years - Hunter and Guzman

3) No one else really sucked.  Only 3 position players generated any negative WAR and TK only gave them 70 at bats.  In 2000, 10 players generated -5.0 WAR.

 

How this fits to the current Twins:

Koskie was an unheralded prospect who turned into a pretty solid MLer.  While 2001 was his peak year, he had a few more 4 WAR seasons.  Dozier could be like him.  He'll be 28 next year.

 

The Twins have a handful of former top 100 prospects on the ML roster now and some of them could certainly bust out.  (Hicks, Schaffer, Gibson, Arcia, Pinto and May have all been top 100 at some point and haven't yet solidified their ML careers).  

 

I actually think #3 is the hardest.  I pointed out above that Kubel, Colabello, Morales etc gave the Twins a lot of negative value.  A lot of those at-bats are going to go to Vargas (as DH) and our new LFer.  If those two guys can hold down the fort, the team could surprise.  However, if Vargas turns into a pumpkin and we have another crappy LFer (to go with bad CF defense) ....

 

 

Oh, one other thing.  The 2001 Twins were pretty healthy.  5 players played in 148 games or more.