2014 was supposed to be a big transition year...

[drjim]

Arms are getting blown out all the time, at all ages, not just "what happens when young players are in the majors instead of at AAA"...you mentioned Cy Young, Verlander seems on the verge of a shutdown, Bronson Arroyo's indestructible robo-arm got shut down in Arizona.... it's become an inevitable part of the process, seemingly without definitive prentatives or solutions.....

 

and the Marlins aggregate numbers still stand, with Fernandez this year, or not...the point Mike is making makes it more valid, maximize the bullets fired while the arms are still fresh, locked and loaded.

 

If Meyer makes it as long as Verlander or Arroyo before getting hurt that should be considered a big win.

 

Just because pitchers get hurt doesn't mean you should be reckless. Entering the year Meyer had one injury plagued season above Class A. He needed to build up innings before he could be sent into a major league rotation.

 

I would like Meyer in the bullpen, but there is still wisdom in the approach the Twins are taking in trying to protect him, even if it is frustrating.

[drjim]

The other point on the Marlins is watch them closely next year. Riding young arms is a recipe for injuries and regression the next year. Aren't you much more interested in a good Meyer next year and going forward instead of trying to push innings this year in an already lost season?

[Mike Sixel]

There really isn't a right way to treat an arm, as far as anyone can tell.....otherwise they would all be doing it by now. That's why teams are moving arms up faster.

 

I still haven't heard anyone tell me why pitching in AAA hurts less than the major, but many seem to be making that argument.

[drjim]

There really isn't a right way to treat an arm, as far as anyone can tell.....otherwise they would all be doing it by now. That's why teams are moving arms up faster.

 

I still haven't heard anyone tell me why pitching in AAA hurts less than the major, but many seem to be making that argument.

 

But there are better ways. And pitching while fatigued is often correlated with injury.

 

The idea of AAA vs. majors is about stress that the innings put on. Majors is all about winning, in AAA they can manage innings/pitch counts easier, and allow for pitchers to get pulled in situations (such as a high pitch count inning) they wouldn't in the majors.

[Thrylos]

Here's one thing I can say I'm encouraged by at this point:

 

Pos - Player (Age) - OBP/OPS

1B - Mauer (31) - .345/.702

2B - Dozier (27) - .338/.763

SS - Escobar (25) - .316/.714

3B - Plouffe (28) - .320/.722

C - Suzuki (30) - .361/.747

LF - Parmelee (26) - .306/.695    or    Schafer (27) - .333/.697  (SSS with Twins)

CF - Santana (23) - .360/.837

RF - Arcia (23) - .310/.733

DH - Vargas (24) - .340/.775  (very SSS)

 

For all intents and purposes we can put together a full lineup that's not particularly old where everyone has an OBP over .300 and an OPS over .700 (except LF, which is darn close), which means there's no longer any black holes in the lineup.  That's the lineup that any prospects coming up are breaking into.  Yeah, those are fairly low bars to cross and don't make them great hitters per se, but they don't suck, either.  So if somebody comes up and is better than somebody in that lineup, then we're in decent shape.

 

So...

 

Will that lineup compete with the loaded Tigers or the Royals (who are ahead of the Tigers this season) in 2015?

 

if so,

 

Will that lineup beat the Yankees in the first postseason series?

 

If the answer in either of them is 'no', I think that the GM has to go to the drawing board again.   70 and 75 wins (even though might make some fans happy for some reason) are probably worse for the future of the club than 60 or 65 wins and playing people who might have a future, while trimming some of the parts of the problems of the last 4 seasons...

 

just a thought.

[Thegrin]

to advance in the post season a team needs 3 starts who routinely make quality starts (Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco?) and  + a bullpen that can Hold and Save games.  

 

The Twins hitters will be a year older and (hopefully) a year wiser.  We can expect them to improve.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Expose him to waivers?

 

I apologize, wrong phrase, DFA. Either way, you risk losing that player.

[ericchri]

So...

 

Will that lineup compete with the loaded Tigers or the Royals (who are ahead of the Tigers this season) in 2015?

 

if so,

 

Will that lineup beat the Yankees in the first postseason series?

 

If the answer in either of them is 'no', I think that the GM has to go to the drawing board again.   70 and 75 wins (even though might make some fans happy for some reason) are probably worse for the future of the club than 60 or 65 wins and playing people who might have a future, while trimming some of the parts of the problems of the last 4 seasons...

 

just a thought.

Pretty sure nothing in my post implies it's a World Series lineup.  What it is is a relatively young full lineup of "doesn't suck" which is better than we've been able to claim in a while.  That's what's encouraging to me.  That's the baseline, and hopefully people moving their way into the lineup raise it from there to pretty good.  So yes, it is TR's job to raise the bar higher, but at least the bar isn't sitting on the ground right now.

[Mike Sixel]

But there are better ways. And pitching while fatigued is often correlated with injury.

 

The idea of AAA vs. majors is about stress that the innings put on. Majors is all about winning, in AAA they can manage innings/pitch counts easier, and allow for pitchers to get pulled in situations (such as a high pitch count inning) they wouldn't in the majors.

Except we have already shown other crappy pitchers are not making it to the sixth......so not sure how that is an actual reason, rather than an excuse.

[drjim]

Except we have already shown other crappy pitchers are not making it to the sixth......so not sure how that is an actual reason, rather than an excuse.

I don't follow.

 

I'm talking solely about Meyer. I'm not overly concerned about the guys the Twins run out to buy development time.

[USAFChief]

If Meyer is shut down, fine. I get that.

 

If he's pitching, I don't get why pitching in Rochester is less stressful.

[Mike Sixel]

The argument seems to be that he is on a pitch limit, so that would tax the bullpen. Except, Twins starters (the bad ones) aren't making it to the 6th anyway, so the bullpen would be no more taxed with Meyer than it is with Pino, Johnson, et. al.

[drjim]

If Meyer is shut down, fine. I get that.

 

If he's pitching, I don't get why pitching in Rochester is less stressful.

 

I want him the major league bullpen. He will hit his innings cap pretty soon, putting him in the bullpen, at 2 innings at a time, would extend him all season.

 

I'm not 100% sure why the Twins aren't willing to do that.

[drjim]

The argument seems to be that he is on a pitch limit, so that would tax the bullpen. Except, Twins starters (the bad ones) aren't making it to the 6th anyway, so the bullpen would be no more taxed with Meyer than it is with Pino, Johnson, et. al.

 

I don't think anyone is making that argument, or it is at best a really minor component of it. In individual games Meyer should be just as good as the filler they are throwing out there.

 

This issue is easily solved by sticking him in the bullpen to close the season.

[bird]

To quote Will Middlebrooks.  "who did he piss off, no way they have five guys better than him".  Hughes is the only guy you can argue with the edge going to Meyer, IMO.

If the decisions were based on highest ceiling, Stewart and Thorpe would be ahead of ALL of these guys, right? Meyer just needs to fully demonstrate that he's got his arm strength and command. He'll get his shot, but unfortunately for us, in 2015.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But there are better ways. And pitching while fatigued is often correlated with injury.

 

The idea of AAA vs. majors is about stress that the innings put on. Majors is all about winning, in AAA they can manage innings/pitch counts easier, and allow for pitchers to get pulled in situations (such as a high pitch count inning) they wouldn't in the majors.

The second-half 2014 Twins season is not all about winning.  I see no reason we couldn't accommodate special restrictions on Meyer at the MLB level.

 

I think Pino had 3 long relievers available behind him Tuesday night.  And if the Twins were willing to move up their impending Swarzak/Deduno decision a couple months, they could easily have interchangeable long relievers with options too (much like they've been rotating starters with AAA the past couple months).

[ALessKosherScott]

Comparing Meyer to a career minor league relief pitcher is not getting Meyer's situation perfectly.

 

And to answer you, yes, I would feel a lot better about Meyer taking his lumps this year in anticipation of a much better season next year. 

 

Comparing Meyer in terms to Hoey in terms of upside isn't a fair point. But asking if Meyer has enough command to make him a viable major league pitcher at this point seems pretty fair. There isn't a qualified major league starter right now with a BB/9 over 4 (AJ Burnett at 3.97 is the highest).

 

For my two cents, it's not like Meyer is Santana or Liriano (or even Garza, to a point). He's down in Rochester because he's working on something.

[goulik]

Too many posters think baseball is like football. Bad season equals off season rebuild and next year we are a contender. TR did not take over a football team. He didn't just take over a major league roster that was bad, he took over the whole crumbling system which needed to be rebuilt from low A on up. If you want a one year rebuild, go back to football. (I love football too btw)

 

IMHO Definitions:

Rebuild: remaking an organization. This could be a full demo (fire everybody, fire sale on players), or gut job (fire somebody a la Smith, trade some good players for prospects, and reorganize your field staff) we went gut job.

Transition: moving from the old core players to the new core. In baseball this usually takes 2 years. Year one, new players come up, off season signings to fill glaring holes, call up rest of new core, second off season fill any remaining holes with FA

 

So discussing this in baseball terms yes this was a transition year. Correia and Willingham are gone, AAAA players of last year are gone (Walters, Diamond, Worley, Colabello, Florimon, Mastroianni, etc... Do I need to go on? There were a lot of AAAA players...) Prospects have been called up and in some cases, so quickly our heads were spinning (Vargas and Polancos cup of coffee). Has everything gone great? Things never do; Prospects always fail (see Hicks though it's too early to give up)

 

I think the rebuild is going right on course, maybe better than I expected with the exceptions of Sano and Buxton. They did not arrive but I did not expect Santana, Vargas or Escobar and to be honest, I'd given up on Plouffe and he has emerged from bad to average 3B. This off season we will need some out field help. Frankly, I thought we were gonna be hosed up the middle but C and SS are more solid at this point than I expected. Next year we will have other lesser prospects also push the MLB squad and emerge much to our surprise.

 

Finally, I think we have playoff contention written all over this club next year. A rookie or two will have major sophmore slumps (see Arcia) players will rediscover their potential (see Arcia, oops, sorry, that's what I'm hoping for, see Plouffe, Dozier, Escobar) Meyer, Sano, and Buxton will all arrive (one or two of them will struggle mightily and TD posters will call for demotions and question the FO) and I think our starting rotation for the first time in years will be above league average.

[TwinsTerritory]

While there have been injuries (Buxton, Sano, Mauer), disappointments (Hicks again, Nolasco, Arcia), and slow promortions (May, Meyer), I think the season as a whole has been a decent transition year.  There have been some pleasant surprises (Santana, Suzuki), some progress (Dozier continuing where he left off, Gibson, Plouffe being decent), and some guys getting some MLB experience (Santana, Vargas, May).

 

I really think next year will continue the transition and turn this club into a .500 team that is ready for a playoff push in 2016.  If I were the GM, I'm not sure I'd add any veterans unless a good deal is to be had.  Here would be my 2015 opening day roster, followed by top prospects called-up in season.

 

IF-Suzuki, PInto, Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Nunez

OF-Parmalee, Hicks, Arcia, Schafer

SP-Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, Millone

RF-Perkins, Fien, Thielbar, Pressley, Tonkin, Swarzak, Duensing

 

Prospect in-season call-ups (in order of call-up): May, Sano, Burdi, Rosario, Buxton

[DocBauer]

Too many posters think baseball is like football. Bad season equals off season rebuild and next year we are a contender. TR did not take over a football team. He didn't just take over a major league roster that was bad, he took over the whole crumbling system which needed to be rebuilt from low A on up. If you want a one year rebuild, go back to football. (I love football too btw)

IMHO Definitions:

Rebuild: remaking an organization. This could be a full demo (fire everybody, fire sale on players), or gut job (fire somebody a la Smith, trade some good players for prospects, and reorganize your field staff) we went gut job.

Transition: moving from the old core players to the new core. In baseball this usually takes 2 years. Year one, new players come up, off season signings to fill glaring holes, call up rest of new core, second off season fill any remaining holes with FA

So discussing this in baseball terms yes this was a transition year. Correia and Willingham are gone, AAAA players of last year are gone (Walters, Diamond, Worley, Colabello, Florimon, Mastroianni, etc... Do I need to go on? There were a lot of AAAA players...) Prospects have been called up and in some cases, so quickly our heads were spinning (Vargas and Polancos cup of coffee). Has everything gone great? Things never do; Prospects always fail (see Hicks though it's too early to give up)

I think the rebuild is going right on course, maybe better than I expected with the exceptions of Sano and Buxton. They did not arrive but I did not expect Santana, Vargas or Escobar and to be honest, I'd given up on Plouffe and he has emerged from bad to average 3B. This off season we will need some out field help. Frankly, I thought we were gonna be hosed up the middle but C and SS are more solid at this point than I expected. Next year we will have other lesser prospects also push the MLB squad and emerge much to our surprise.

Finally, I think we have playoff contention written all over this club next year. A rookie or two will have major sophmore slumps (see Arcia) players will rediscover their potential (see Arcia, oops, sorry, that's what I'm hoping for, see Plouffe, Dozier, Escobar) Meyer, Sano, and Buxton will all arrive (one or two of them will struggle mightily and TD posters will call for demotions and question the FO) and I think our starting rotation for the first time in years will be above league average.

This. Very nice post Goulik!

 

We are preparing to have the very best SP rotation we've had in years! And there are legit prospects who could/can/should be ready to contribute a month in, mid-season, late-season. The pen bothers me slightly. I want to give kids the opportunity, and we have several, and I don't want to hold them down. But don't we want to win too? We sign ONE quality RH setup man, Crain-ish, and I really like the depth and potential of the pen next season.

 

 

Further, that one, quality, power hitting, RBI OF and the offense starts to take real shape and potential. (I'm torn on Span or similar CF with Santana playing SS vs keeping Santana there for now until Buxton arrives.

 

 

In regard to Meyer, it's not that pitching in AAA is somehow easier or saving his arm per se, it's simply about allowing him to work on his motion and control at a level with less pressure involved while controlling his IP, but also trying to increase them per norms. It's really not any different than a A or AA pitcher with great potential. Why not just go straight to the ML's to work? Because they're not ready yet. Why tempt them to overthrow or risk confidence by getting shelled? It's all about stages and reaching some arbitrary but hard to define level of consistency.

 

That being said, he's talented enough, and has thrown well "enough" that I'm still highly in favor of some starting/pen work to finish the season for ML experience.