Baseball America's top 500

[gunnarthor]

Here's the link. Twins will probably take either Buxton (#1), Zimmer (#3), Gausman (#5) or Correa (#6) with their first pick. MN prep pitcher, Mitchell Brown, is ranked #44. Best power bat available in this draft is Joey Gallo, ranked #33. Sickel's Twins mock had Twins taking Correa, Brown, JO Berrios (#49, exciting P.R. high school arm) and Purdue catcher Plawecki (#67).

 

I'd be pretty happy if we got Zimmer, Gallo, Brown/Berrios with our first three picks.

[travistwinstalk]

At 2 the more i hear the more I hope the Twins take Kyle Zimmer, but my gut says that the Twins are going to play it safe and take once again an outfielder in Byron Buxton. Nothing against Buxton but the biggest need is pitching with some velo and that fits Appel and Zimmer perfectly and with Appel likely to go to Houston that leaves Zimmer as the perfect pick.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I think you have to go with the BPA philosophy, regardless of current need. The baseball draft is unlike those for other sports. You aren't picking players who will have an immediate impact; you're picking players you hope will be ready to contribute 2-3 years (or more) down the road. A lot can happen in those 2-3 years to change what your top needs are. If you have a top prospect, even if it's in an area where you are overstocked, it still sets you up to make trades down the road to fill holes where necessary.

 

What happens if we take a college pitcher, and Diamond and Walters step up and become steady starters, and Gibson comes back from surgery well, and the Twins pick up 1-2 decent FA pitchers. What if at the same time Benson, Tosoni, Hicks & Arcia fail to develop to their potential? Now all of a sudden you're stocked on pitching and OF is a problem. You just can't predict what the need will be in 2015 - you need to take the best player available and go from there.

[Thrylos]

I agree with the "Best Player Available" philosophy. The problem is that what "Best Player" means and who that might be in a particular draft, is defined differently. And those definitions are subjective and change. That's why each team has a totally different board.

 

For Example: I'd like to see them pick the player with the highest ceiling (because to me, that is the definition of the best player available in an MLB amateur draft). I'd argue, that the player with the highest ceiling in this draft, is also the player with the highest risk in this draft, and might be unsignable (Lucas Giolito.) I doubt that the Twins are thinking this way...

[maxisagod]

At 2 the more i hear the more I hope the Twins take Kyle Zimmer, but my gut says that the Twins are going to play it safe and take once again an outfielder in Byron Buxton. Nothing against Buxton but the biggest need is pitching with some velo and that fits Appel and Zimmer perfectly and with Appel likely to go to Houston that leaves Zimmer as the perfect pick.

Deron Johnson must have scouted him a lot, being a USF Alum himself. Last scouting report said Zimmer had lost a lot of velo. Sitting a 91 during his last game according to BA.

[gunnarthor]

For Example: I'd like to see them pick the player with the highest ceiling (because to me, that is the definition of the best player available in an MLB amateur draft). I'd argue, that the player with the highest ceiling in this draft, is also the player with the highest risk in this draft, and might be unsignable (Lucas Giolito.) I doubt that the Twins are thinking this way...

The Twins could, quite reasonably, think that 20 yr old Zimmer has the highest ceiling. Of the college arms, (IIRC), Zimmer has at least average control of four pitches right now (Gausman has two, Appel three), solid command and control and his fastball has hit the high 90s (although it's dipped some recently). Zimmer is also the best athlete of the pitching prospects.

 

Of course, they could also think that Buxton will be the next Mike Trout ...

[Shane Wahl]

T.J. Oakes at 292, by the way. Kevin Plawecki ranked 67. I still want the Twins to take him at 63 or whatever it is.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I agree with the "Best Player Available" philosophy. The problem is that what "Best Player" means and who that might be in a particular draft, is defined differently. And those definitions are subjective and change. That's why each team has a totally different board.

 

QUOTE]

 

That's what makes this whole thing interesting:). And I agree with the signability comment - if a player won't sign, I don't consider him available.

[Rosterman]

Well that's why I never quite understood players NOT wanting to sign with certain teams. Hey, it might allow you to get to the majors faster with a non-contending club, and also make you god trade bait if you do what you are supposed to do...shine. If the Twins draft a pitcher, who says they can't trade that same pitcher for an outfielder two years from now, or vice versa. What I still find amazing is the amount of money thrown at draft picks in general and the percentage that make it to the big leagues.....

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=MIN&year_ID=1999&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year

 

Look at year-by-year...I did a link to 1999 when 8 of 50 made it to the show with the Twins. 8 the following year. 6 the next. 9 the next. Look at the names and where they were picked. Look at the amount of money spent on wannabees that never panned out.

[J-Dog Dungan]

The big question right now isn't really who the Twins take, it is who the Astros take. That should show who the Twins will pick.

[Thrylos]

Well that's why I never quite understood players NOT wanting to sign with certain teams..

Your link is for "back then". Here is the thing: If a kid was selected out of High School in a mid-high round by a team that gave him a bonus of $100K, he'd think twice about getting a college education for free (that beats the $100K btw) and the possibility of getting selected higher at Junior year with a zero or so added to the back of that amount. Back then, college kids like draft eligible sophomores and junior who were selected by certain cheap teams and felt that what they got was not what they deserved, went to play another year. These days (with the new CBA and the hard slots), the High School and draft eligible sophomore thing is in play for pretty much everything other than the top 10 or so picks (too risky for someone to deny those, esp. a college kid), but College Juniors (in the top 15-20) and Seniors will have to sign

[clutterheart]

Astros will take Appell. You can almost go to the bank on this

[strumdatjag]

The Astros will probably take the local Houston college pitcher Appel. That will leave the Twins with the best overall player in the draft - Byron Buxton. Read the Baseball America bio on him - he's fast, has a great arm and power, a passion for the game too. The Twins should take this BPA, potential future superstar. Probably as much of a no brainer that one can have in the unpredictable baseball . Think back to when the Twins took the local kid Mauer, and left the consensus best player Mark Prior for the the #2 pick. Prior had injuries and didn't amount to much. The MVP and three time batting champ Mauer ended out the best pick. This high, pick the position player. A pitcher is riskier, just one throw away from Tommy John surgery.

[Thrylos]

The Astros will probably take the local Houston college pitcher Appel. That will leave the Twins with the best overall player in the draft - Byron Buxton..

Appel was indeed born in Houston. Then he and his family moved away when he was 7. Not sure how local he is. Here is the think about Buxton that scares me (and the "best player" caveat I mentioned up there applies) : I watched plenty of video on him and the kid seems to be like a statue from the waist down when he hits. I suspect that aluminum bats might generate some power just with upper body, but hitting with wood, you got to get that lower body going and the kid is a statue. Just some food for thought

 

Here is a video from this March to show you what I am talking about:

 

[video=youtube;Q25ww_NCly4]http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q25ww_NCly4

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

If the Twins draft Buxton, he instantly becomes their best prospect. I don't know if you can say the say about any other player in the draft. I think that's how you can gauge the best player available. Who provides the most potential and flash to the farm?

[twinsfanstreif]

I agree with the "Best Player Available" philosophy. The problem is that what "Best Player" means and who that might be in a particular draft, is defined differently. And those definitions are subjective and change. That's why each team has a totally different board.

 

For Example: I'd like to see them pick the player with the highest ceiling (because to me, that is the definition of the best player available in an MLB amateur draft). I'd argue, that the player with the highest ceiling in this draft, is also the player with the highest risk in this draft, and might be unsignable (Lucas Giolito.) I doubt that the Twins are thinking this way...

Bingo! I don't think Giolito is unsignable at #2 though, his dad has been touting him on twitter and releasing pictures and video showing he is healthy right before the draft. If he goes in the top 6ish he is signable, after that is where it gets sticky, I've heard he wants at least 4 million (I can't remember where I heard that)

[twinsfanstreif]

T.J. Oakes at 292, by the way. Kevin Plawecki ranked 67. I still want the Twins to take him at 63 or whatever it is.

That puts Oakes right around 8th round talent level. What you're failing to realize is that the Twins will draft him several rounds earlier than that because A. they like local guys and will over draft them and B. he will sign for under slot which is more important than ever with the new CBA. I would love Plawecki in the 2nd round, would be a great pick up, but expect Oakes in round 4 or 5.

[Riverbrian]

Appel was indeed born in Houston. Then he and his family moved away when he was 7. Not sure how local he is. Here is the think about Buxton that scares me (and the "best player" caveat I mentioned up there applies) : I watched plenty of video on him and the kid seems to be like a statue from the waist down when he hits. I suspect that aluminum bats might generate some power just with upper body, but hitting with wood, you got to get that lower body going and the kid is a statue. Just some food for thought

 

Here is a video from this March to show you what I am talking about:

 

[video=youtube;Q25ww_NCly4]http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q25ww_NCly4

Actually his swing looks pretty good in my opinion. His head is on the ball. No extra movement. It's a pretty effortless natural swing. I did notice one problem.

 

He struggled staying back at times. His weight transfer was way to early at times during BP and at times during the game video. This led to reaching and pulling off the ball and that leads to pop ups and weak grounders. He has to get that licked or he will get eaten alive by the off speed pitch. When the swing was on. The swing was beautfiful and it will generate power. The thing I really liked was his frame. How tall is he? Those arms are long. He will have great plate coverage and should develop into a guy who can hit well to all fields although he appeared to have a tendency to pull on the video. The combo of his arms and bat speed can produce something special.

[PMKI]

The pick at #2 definitely has to be either Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa.

[twinsfanstreif]

The pick at #2 definitely has to be either Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa.

Definitely is a strong word, I prefer Giolito but those 2 seem pretty solid. I was down on Buxton early because he sounded like Carlos Gomez 2.0 but after reading some more stuff on him I'm warming up to the idea. Correa has looked solid for a while and I don't understand why he is not higher on most boards.

[PMKI]

Definitely is a strong word, I prefer Giolito but those 2 seem pretty solid. I was down on Buxton early because he sounded like Carlos Gomez 2.0 but after reading some more stuff on him I'm warming up to the idea. Correa has looked solid for a while and I don't understand why he is not higher on most boards.

I would also like Giolito but I just don't really see that happening. I really do not want any of those three college pitchers. I know that I may regret that in the future. Right now I would rank the pitchers like this: Gausman, Zimmer, Appel. I am guessing that is the opposite way the Twins feel but Appel really scares me.

[PMKI]

Does anyone think that Stryker Trahan could be available at #32? I would really love for the Twins to snag him somehow but I don't see him available there. Addison Russell is someone I could see us getting at #32.

[samloupete]

At #2 I see us taking either Buxton or Correa, Mitch Brown at 32 and J.O. Berrios at 42 on Monday night.

[gunnarthor]

Does anyone think that Stryker Trahan could be available at #32? I would really love for the Twins to snag him somehow but I don't see him available there. Addison Russell is someone I could see us getting at #32.

Trahan could fall to us at 32 but it's probably not likely. Klaw was reporting that several teams outside the top 10 were considering going under value with their first round picks to save money later. So guys expected to be taken low in the first round or even supplemental could be drafted higher than expected.

 

Russell is an interesting pick and certainly a Twins type pick. Pace HS is about 2 hours from Ft Myers so I could see the Twins taking him. But I still think they take Mitch Brown at #32.

[PMKI]

Trahan could fall to us at 32 but it's probably not likely. Klaw was reporting that several teams outside the top 10 were considering going under value with their first round picks to save money later. So guys expected to be taken low in the first round or even supplemental could be drafted higher than expected.

 

Russell is an interesting pick and certainly a Twins type pick. Pace HS is about 2 hours from Ft Myers so I could see the Twins taking him. But I still think they take Mitch Brown at #32.

Like I said I would be absolutely thrilled if we got Trahan. Are we reaching for Brown at #32 just because he is a Minnesota guy? Or is that where he should be drafted?

[gunnarthor]

Like I said I would be absolutely thrilled if we got Trahan. Are we reaching for Brown at #32 just because he is a Minnesota guy? Or is that where he should be drafted?

It's about right - Callis and Sickels both have both commented on the fit. Callis said something to the effect of if other teams want Brown, they'd have to take him late first. Sickels thinks he's one of the most advanced HS arms in the country and was shooting up draft boards. He probably doesn't make it to #42 but #32 is a fine pick.

[nfisch22]

I was surprised at how compact his swing is and yes you are right his weight transfer is pretty early. The other thing i noticed is that sometimes his swing tend to be more loopy then flat through the zone. In the video he pops up a couple of pitches in the game and it looks like his bat is looping into an uppercut swing instead of staying flat

[PMKI]

Somebody needs to contact Terry Ryan and tell him this pick needs to be Carlos Correa! Kid is going to be a stud.

[RinaldiPhotos]

The pick at #2 definitely has to be either Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa.

I am actually starting to warm up to the idea of Correa. he looks really really nice. In a few years sano will be moced to 1B or Corner Outifeld and Arcia will be the other. Correa will be able to play SS or 3b.

 

So in a few years you could be looking at:

 

DH: Morneau

1B: Sano (all though I wouldnt be totally suprised if Mauer is here)

C: TBD (Mauer)

3B: Travis Harrison (maybe, hope he can field the ball)

SS: Correa

2B: Rosario (good candidate to be moved to CF)

CF: Hicks?, Span? Kepler?

COF: Arcia

COF: Morales?

 

That is a lot of power and Correa also can hit for average obviously.

[PMKI]

I am actually starting to warm up to the idea of Correa. he looks really really nice. In a few years sano will be moced to 1B or Corner Outifeld and Arcia will be the other. Correa will be able to play SS or 3b.

 

So in a few years you could be looking at:

 

DH: Morneau

1B: Sano (all though I wouldnt be totally suprised if Mauer is here)

C: TBD (Mauer)

3B: Travis Harrison (maybe, hope he can field the ball)

SS: Correa

2B: Rosario (good candidate to be moved to CF)

CF: Hicks?, Span? Kepler?

COF: Arcia

COF: Morales?

 

That is a lot of power and Correa also can hit for average obviously.

Thank you! If only the Twins saw this but it doesn't sound like they are really connected to him other than they did work him out. I guess they could just be staying quiet but no real point in that. Right now I really think we will end up with Appel because it is sounding like the Astros are going to be picking Buxton. Who knows though.