Article: Terry Ryan: Twins Will Chase "Pretty Darn Good" Pitcher

The pitching market is probably thin because we are a last place team. Quality players like to win. Or if they can't win get paid really really well. After the last two years what pitcher would look at the Twins and say here is my chance to win it all?

My guess is that in order to get quality pitching they will have to over pay, history has shown that bad teams have had to over pay for any free agents. That makes most of these guys look less attractive because they cost much more than they are worth.

With half or more of the teams (15-20) looking for pitching and maybe 8-10 guys that are decent starters thin seems like a good word for what is out there.

This is the crop of FA starters. Some others may have options declined or released or just wouldn't likely fit, rumored trouble makers or injured.

When nearly every team needs pitching this is a very thin list.

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No, it's not. Or at least not when you include those players whose options are going to be declined.

 

How one wants to evaluate how "deep" a market it is open to debate, but it seems to me the best way is by evaluating the dollars they're likely to draw. That would at least give a sense of whether the teams think this is a deep market.

 

And what we're going to see is that this is the deepest market, demanding the most dollars, as there has been in several years. I wrote about this a few weeks ago.

 

http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1049-Deep-Starting-Pitching-Market-Is-A-Lucky-Break-For-Twins

 

There are as many as 11 pitchers who could garner a $20M offer from a team. In the first draft of TwinsCentric’s Offseason GM Handbook (which you’ll be able to order soon, I promise), I count six that are virtually locks to make that money There are five more that might, and each will almost certainly get at least $10 million guaranteed. That’s deeper than any class since 2006.

Isn't it a supply and demand thing? Nearly ever team needs pitching. When nearly every team needs pitching the demand is high. The number of "quality" available pitchers is finite so those pitchers will be in a higher demand and likely demand a higher cost. When Ryan says we need 3 pitchers and the market has maybe 15 or so pitchers that may be above replacement level and maybe 20 teams are looking to add pitchers that seems to make the demand much higher than the supply.

Of course in the past we've done the "trickle down" free agent signing pitchers that were left over after everyone else has picked the bones. Getting 2-3 starters out of whatever list you want to use will be very hard considering that we have maybe 25m to do it, imo.

What do we really have of value to trade for a starting pitcher of any quality? Span is the most likely, Willingham would leave a big hole in the lineup and nobody else has much value. Do you want to start shopping Sano or Hicks types? What teams need a center fielder and have excess pitching? List is very short, Rays, Mets, Braves and maybe the Reds? So can you get Shields from the Rays? Maybe Bailey from the Reds, or Niese from the Mets would that do it?

Trading for or signing 3 solid starting pitchers this winter will be very hard.