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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I'm not sure why a team that is on pace to nail it's preseason projection is such a frustration for everyone. They are who we thought they were. Sure, the shape of the production is different from what we expected, but they still are who we thought they were.
  2. Minny505
    I hope the plan is to give Gallo and Kepler a month of runway*, then flip one or both, for any pitching "prospects" they can fetch. A MLB RP arm works as well, even if they are a 6th inning guy. *Trying to stay in reality with my hope as they seem reticent to do anything about the situation prior to the trade deadline.
  3. Minny505
    You are correct. All things considered, it was a great first showing for Dallas, sporting a 20% SwStr%.
  4. Minny505
    Not scoring more than 6 runs in a game, while keeping the RS/G above 4, is quite preferable to the feast and famine offense we've seen for most of the first 2+ months. It means the offense is giving the team a chance to win most nights.
  5. Minny505
    Perheps the Twins can work out a straight swap of Kepler for Myers? I'm not sure why the Reds would make that swap, but it's worth inquiring. I'd like to have him in place of Kepler. He really has smashed LHP over the past few seasons, to the tune of an OPS+ of about 140. That would be quite valuable. He is an absolute butcher in the OF, but as a weak-side platoon player, I'm fine with that.
  6. Minny505
    Surprised there was no mention of Rosario getting eye surgery in the past offseason. It hasn't seemed to help with that strike-zone judgement, but it has helped him square up the baseball again on a more regular basis.
  7. Minny505
    Government employees would disagree with you on that, especially the good ones.
  8. Minny505
    The Twins are doing their best to emulate the Rays. Unfortunately that plan can backfire, even for the Rays.
  9. Minny505
    There is no use in defending his recent performance. Put him on the bench. Or bat him 7/8 in the lineup, which has been the case. My only point is that the calls for DFAing him over other players, such as optioning/ILing Castro, Lewis, Julien, or Buxton, are oozing with recency bias. Other than Buxton, Gallo is likely to help the team produce more runs on offense than any of those players over the rest of the 2023 season. Gallo carried the team for the first 2+ weeks and then was rather average-ish (meaning: not part of the problem) until his most recent IL stint. I'd at least give until the trade deadline, see if he can catch one more hot run, then try to flip him to a contender for a prospect or two. His potential upside is worth the wait. Regardless, I think we can all agree, that was a inexcusable signing for this team.
  10. Minny505
    He and Julien are concerning. Julien has had even more batted ball luck though so I let him ride while sending Lewis to AAA to get 3B & 2B reps while fixing his approach. He has only 350ish PAs sprinkled over the last 3.5 seasons. It's no surprise he may need more seasoning before he's truly ready for the show.
  11. Minny505
    Gallo is in a rough slump, but it would be a huge mistake to cut him if your goal is to improve the offense. Gallo has the 4th best OPS and xwOBA on the team. He has more RBI and Runs than Solano in less plate appearances. He may be part of the problem right now, but has been part of the solution for most of the season.
  12. Minny505
    I agree with you. That said, the table the author used for the pitchers makes Pagan look like far and away their best RP. This is why analytics are important. If all you do is go off baseball card stats you won't find the context.
  13. Minny505
    He may be an outlier who's HR/FB rate stays near 20%, but I doubt it. Based on his minor league track record he is probably a high HR/FB rate pitcher, but that means 15%, not 22%. That change in batted-ball luck (the same talking-point many of us used to defend Jax in the last half of May) should have him around a 4.10-ish ERA pitcher. I'll take that from my 5 starter.
  14. Minny505
    Agreed. That never made sense to me that K% doesn't matter on offense when it is the most important statistic for a pitcher. It's like saying that in football, turning the ball over on offense doesn't matter, but forcing a turnover is the most important statistic on defense. That's not to say that a high K% and a high wOBA cannot coexist, but any player/team that can pull that off is an outlier.
  15. Minny505
    @RandBalls Stu Longtime reader back to 2008 and Twinkie Town. This is your best piece to date. Thank you.
  16. Minny505
    For most of the last two decades the top baseball analysts said K% doesn't matter on offense. It seems that theory has now been broken, and not just by the Twins. Of the top 15 RS/G offenses in MLB, only 4 are in the highest 15 teams for K%. When normalizing for park factors, that number falls to only 2 of the 15 highest K% teams are also in the top 15 for RS/G. There is a very strong inverse correlation between K% and RS/G (even stronger when park factor adjusted) in MLB in 2023.
  17. Minny505
    @Nick Nelson Any idea where the team ranks with scoring 2 runs or less in 40% of their games? It would be interesting to find out.
  18. Minny505
    The pitch mix issue is a classic adjustment that has pitchers throwing higher quality innings. That part should be relatively easy to solve. The location is harder. Much harder.
  19. Minny505
    Play fairy tale baseball for a couple seasons and it becomes very evident this is standard practice for most MLB teams.
  20. Minny505
    If you recall, a struggling SS Willy Adames was swapped for RP J.P. Feyereisen before June in 2021. That deal worked out great for both squads. It can happen, especially if it is a swap of two veterans.
  21. Minny505
    The problem is that Kepler is now untradeable unless the Twins pick up all of his contract left for the year. Even then, he may not have any trade value as most teams would rather just sign him after going thru waivers and not have to give up any minor leaguers.
  22. Minny505
    Agreed on this. Max seems like a fine fit as the perpetual 4th OFer that gets 250-300 PAs a year, starting 1-2 games a week in CF* against a RHP, and the 4th or 5th man on the depth chart for extended play in the COF. This situation is downright Punto-nian. It's not that either player is useless on a MLB roster. It's that the way the manager utilizes them that over-exposes their weaknesses, turning the fanbase against them. In both situations, the player can be a solid contributer and in both situations the manager is sabotaging the opportunity for that result. *Kepler has clearly been surpassed by other options in the COF that are either better or deserve runway to prove they are better. As such, Kepler needs to be the CF backup. He is being paid millions of dollars to play for a MLB team and will do what they tell him he needs to do to stay on the roster. If he is not willing to do that, he gets let go. This is a rare comparison where his job and your job actually are the same.
  23. Minny505
    Plus, the Punto-ization of Max Kepler.
  24. Minny505
    Any update regarding Buxton and/or Correa?
  25. Minny505
    Agreed on the risk. It's just really hard to rank a guy at 5 or 6 that is in his position, when there are a handful of arms with a similar ceiling and a "higher" floor. I put higher in quotes cuz there is no such thing as a pitching prospect😂
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