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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I would sign and trade him. I would put him on the proverbial, obviously available, trade block. Shop him around and take the best value for him. At $10 for one year, he can bring in a decent player or prospect that is more valuable to the team than he is. Urshela is good, solid player. Kepler-esque in that you need good, solid 2-3 win players to supplement a good core. It's crucial. The problem is that two of the members of the core (Miranda & Arraez) play the same position, with reinforcements coming and Gordon to fill in in a pinch. Unless he can play OF, C, SS, or pitch, he is redundant on the roster. Use that surplus value to your advantage and flip him.
  2. Minny505
    Yes, I absolutely do not want to cut Thielber. He's the second best reliever the team has! I don't want to compound a weak bullpen by removing one of the strong members in it.
  3. Minny505
    Yes, but not by as much as most people seem to believe. He is marginally better. Not Arenado better. Miranda, due to his hit tool, has far more total value and is a perfectly serviceable, roughly league average, defensive 3B. With more consistent playing time at the position, he might grade out as Urshela's equal.
  4. Minny505
    Agreed. He does probably get $250mil though over 8 years, or something like that. I doubt his total pay starts with a 3 though.
  5. Minny505
    If anyone else lives in the Phoenix area, East Valley specifically, and wants to meet up for a Glendale Desert Dogs game or two at Scottsdale, Salt River, or Sloan Stadiums, please message me. I try to get to a few games every year and love to do it with fellow Twins fans.
  6. Minny505
    I suspect the answer is none of them as one of the six SP (five under contract plus Rodon) will get injured in spring training and need a month or two for recovery. Then another one goes down in week two. Winder is already slotted in for a few starts by the fourth turn thru the rotation and Ober becomes a vital rotation cog at that point.
  7. Minny505
    It is a silver lining that we get to see Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, and their 72 combined MLB starts, pitch this week. I feel like an earlier era of the Twins would have seen the equivalency of Archer, Bundy, Aaron Sanchez, and Derrick Rodriguez out there in this situation.
  8. Minny505
    It was interesting that those were the primary lowlights in the summary. A "slumping" rookie having "only" a 110 OPS+ since August 1? That's the lowlight on a team clicking on all cylinders, not a team that is on a major skid. With the state of the team at the moment, Miranda being in a slump that still has him at a 110 OPS+ deserves to be a highlight! Even rookies like Lars Newtbar and Jose Rodriguez have had 6-8 week slumps that saw them hitting worse than Miranda is now. Palacios, Lopez, catcher hitting, the outfield trainwreck-in-motion, and the generally poor defensive play, all seem more fitting for that section.
  9. Minny505
    Going by the stat line provided, Brent Headrick looks like his season was considerably better than the rest. Is there something not listed that is dragging him down in the vote?
  10. Minny505
    Agreed on pretty much all counts. As an analogy, there is also no evidence that banning the shift as MLB is implementing for 2023 will have any sort of impact on BABIP, but 70-something-percent of MLB fans share the opinion that it will. The comment I was responding to only cited a quick hook for SP. I am open to the fact that this is an incorrect take I have, just as my take on the 2023 MLB shift rules having any sort of league-wide impact on BABIP is, but I'm willing to make an equally strong statement regarding both outcomes. But if SPs start going longer with a change of manager, I suspect it will more likely be a change in data of the effectiveness of a SP vs RP in that situation, a new training method, rostering better SPs, etc...just as I suspect a bump in BABIP from 2022 to 2023 will coincide with a regression/progression to the BABIP mean and incorrectly attributed to the new shift rules. I don't disagree that the Twins could be better off with a manager who makes better player usage decisions elsewhere, or a stronger emphasis on all other facets of managing a baseball team, but I do not believe this one facet of game management will improve with a new manager that the FO would actually hire in his place. I am in favor of replacing the leadership of the FO. They have not proven very adept at player personnel decisions after five years and that would have a far greater impact on the success of this team than changing the manager...even if Rocco stayed. Good discussion though. Appreciate you digging deeper on the manager topic than his quick hook with SPs.
  11. Minny505
    By the nature of being a position player vs pitcher, Miranda certainly has the brightest future as pitchers break and quickly become ineffective at a much higher rate than position players. (though if you are judging this statement on the injury history of the Twins system, you'd probably disagree? #snakebitten)
  12. Minny505
    This kind of proves the axiom "every pitcher is injury prone until he isn't." With one healthy season on the heels of seven seasons with at least one trip to the MLB IL/DL, I'm not willing to bet that he will be available for more games than Mahle, Gray, Castillo, Montas, Ober, Kershaw, or just about any other pitcher in MLB. In fact, according to research by people much smarter than you or I, he is a higher injury risk than most pitchers as he has thrown more high velocity pitches this season than most other pitchers. That said, I am will to bet that, when he is on the mound, he will be better than almost all other SP per IP. There are players who truly do have some sort of genetic inferiority regarding soft-tissue injuries, but identifying that data in the course of a career can be almost impossible.
  13. Minny505
    So Rodon is off the table? Rodon, Kershaw, and DeGrom, will the most "injury prone" SP known to be available in FA this offseason. I would invest in any of them if there is a shot of landing them (there won't be with Kershaw and DeGrom).
  14. Minny505
    I think Denny Green summed up this Twins season best: "They are who we thought they were!"
  15. Minny505
    I get so tired of seeing comment boards with some variation of Rocco is the problem. He's not. The sooner we could agree that he is just a lackey executing the strategy of the FO, the sooner we can stop with this nonsense. He is likely pushing the envelope as far as he can with the FO without getting canned. You seem to think he should be fired because he pulls SPs too early for your liking. It's almost certainly the other way around that what he would actually get fired for by the FO is letting the SP go too long. Any replacement for Baldelli is almost certainly going to frustrate you even more as pitchers get pulled even earlier. Rocco is merely a Lieutenant who is ordering his troops to execute "the plan" of his commanders back at base. As long as he sticks to "the plan" he gets positive marks. But if he veers from that, he gets reprimanded. No one likes getting reprimanded.
  16. Minny505
    Is reliever of the year an official award? It sounds made up for this discussion.
  17. Minny505
    I am on board with making progress. While I don't necessarily agree on the Rogers-Pagan/Paddock take, I understand the opinion. The trade certainly hurt for the 2022 season. But the Garver take? Huh? Garver would be no help. He played roughly 20 games at catcher this season and was kinda terrible. Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez, who they flipped IKF for, has played 80-something games as a league average catcher. On top of that, Henriquez, the prospect they received, just turned 22, is already at AAA, and has arguably turned himself into the top pitching prospect in the Twins org. That trade was an A+ when it comes to impact on the 2022 season, and likely far beyond that.
  18. Minny505
    Agreed on the fans that are wanting Rocco gone don't want Cash, but I would be surprised if Falvey didn't go even more extreme with 2.0. That's why I say, think thru the likely consequences of using one of your three Twins Genie wishes on Rocco getting fired. If you think that Falvey would view the Twins failure being due to Rocco not pushing the boundaries of "the plan", as you put it, you are very, very mistaken. He's going to double down with 2.0.
  19. Minny505
    Of course he's not mad at the messenger. That's nonsense. He probably is frustrated with the FO for the directive Baldelli has to follow.
  20. Minny505
    I actually expect Falvine Manager 2.0 would be expected to follow FO directives even more stringently than now. If you hate seeing SPs who are cruising and get pulled in the 6th, 2.0 will pull them in the 5th. For those calling for a firing, I don't think you thinking thru the likeliness that you would get even more frustrated with whoever that 2.0 is.
  21. Minny505
    Huh? This seems like a serious hawt taik. The expectation on April 1st was 79 to 84 wins. They are probably going to nail their projections, despite the efforts of Emilio Pagan to sabotage their over/under. The general rule of thumb is that when a manager hits projections, he's not the problem. Is he Francona, Cash, or Roberts? No. But how many managers routinely outplay their projections year after year? Those guys generally get lifetime contracts with their current squad and are NEVER available and finding the next one means sifting thru far worse than Baldelli to get their.
  22. Minny505
    I do agree on both of those. Unfortunately, according to multiple sources, the Twins did have a slightly higher offer on the table to Wheeler and he just wanted to "go home" to Philly. Hard to compete with that. Rodon was a huge whiff. That's really only one, and they get another crack at him if they can get Jim to sign off. With payroll as it is, it's certainly feasible, but he would be the only notable FA signed. 2023 bullpen looks solid with Lopez added and internal candidates. They will need a RH OF bat and a stopgap SS, but that is $15mil total. With $45mil for 2023 expected to be available after arb raises, Rodon is in the cards and would be a bigger splash, and improvement, than even Correa.
  23. Minny505
    Give me a few 1/2 SPs in your mind. Any in the league. Aces don't count (IE Verlander, DeGrom, etc). Because, by the metrics, Statcast data, stuff plus scouting, etc, Mahle and Gray are the very definition of #2s with #1 upside when going well. They are right in the conversation with names like Montas, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Logan Gilbert, Triston McKenzie, etc. I'm trying to understand what you mean by your definition. Quantity of IP? I'll agree that is an issue with them, but not quality. Rodon is really the only FA better than those two who is not expected to re-up with their current org. The rest are adding more #3s, as you say. FWIW, I'd like them to sign another (your definition) #3, such as Bassitt or Anderson...unless they can swing a trade for better.
  24. Minny505
    Is this actually Bert? If not, you nailed the impersonation,
  25. Minny505
    Agreed. Singling out Alcala is sort of strange. You could essentially pick out any of the pitchers on the list below: Paddock Ober Dobnak Winder Alcala Coulombe Having just any two of those guys available for, more or less, the full season would probably all add a couple extra wins minimum. Throw in Lewis, Sano, Kirilloff, and to a lesser extent, Larnach, and it's kind of amazing they are .500. Even teams like the Yankees can't sustain that level of injury...except when the Yankee Slump Busters come for a visit.
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