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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    First, great writing. It was very, very long, but your technique is edutainment at it's best! Threw you a follow and hope to read more. I agree with you on Duvall. He might accept a 4th OF, 450 PA type role as the primary CF backup (a role that we sadly know will get to start at least 50 games) and platoon COF. He doesn't have great splits vs LHP, but would be solid. If the Twins decide to trade for Crawford(with Giants paying $10mil) or Guillorme to be the strong side platoon at SS, then adding Drury seems like a good fit as he plays the all the positions and continues the trend of further rebuilding the Reds in Minnesota. (They should wear hats for a game where they replace the C in TC with the Reds C logo. I'd buy one.) Myers would also be a great fit as he has been a true lefty masher over his career. If the Twins want to prioritize a bat in this role, Myers is that bat.
  2. Minny505
    You are really underselling the impact of Reds Stadium in this piece. It is not just hitter friendly, it is the unanimous most homer-friendly stadium in MLB. Every "Park Factors" algorithm out there has different results for 2-10 on the most homer-friendly stadiums in MLB, but #1 is always the Reds's stadium. Just like Target Field helped Sonny Gray put up the best "Per IP" season he's had since donning green and gold, it will do the same for Mahle, but likely even more so due to Mahle's higher fly ball rate. Not an ace, but yet another solid #2. This is why the Twins would benefit most from acquiring a true #1 vs acquiring an elite player for any other role on the team, including SS. They simply have no pitcher in the org with elite potential.
  3. Minny505
    Contreras is an easy cut if the Twins need to make space. Trading at least one, if not two, of Kepler, Larnach, Wallner, and Gordon, plus acquiring a RHB in their depth chart spot, seems wise, if not imperative. I prefer to shop Larnach and Kepler, then trade the one who brings in the most value.
  4. Minny505
    I completely agree. Using round numbers, if the choice is... Option 1: Correa @ 9/300 Option 2: Bogaerts @ 7/200 I want Bogaerts. He is Correa's superior on offense, though the gap is not large. On defense, he is about average. Correa has more years left to play SS and is superior on defense by about the same amount the Bogaerts is on offense. Between offense and defense, they bring essentially the same value over the next 2-3 seasons. And Bogaerts's superior offense likely plays better at 3B or 2B when it is time to move down the defensive spectrum, making the deal more valuable in those last 2-3 years of the contract. Plus, Bogaerts has a sizeable lead in average games played and PAs per season over their respective careers. The advantage you get from a Correa signing is likely better production in years 4-7 of their respective contracts as Bogaerts is, and will always be, two years older.
  5. Minny505
    I actually think the AAV is a little high. 29-30 should get it done. If the Twins offer this tomorrow, Correa likely signs this tomorrow, just like Boras did with Seager and the Rangers. And just like the Rangers, it is because this offer will likely outbid the market by $30mil or so*. *Based on the general expectations of the ten or so analysts that I have read and/or listened to
  6. Minny505
  7. Minny505
    Guillorme is a great pull. Had to look him up. NICE! Mets might trade him for pitching depth as they have almost no MLB pitching staff in place...literally. It's kind of hilarious looking at their Roster Resource page right now. Scherzer, Peterson, and Diaz, are pretty much the staff at this point.
  8. Minny505
    Agreed whole heartedly with this take. I don't know who I saw pose the suggestion on here first (all credit to them for this), but Omar Narvaez at $4mil for a season seems like the perfect Jason Castro impersonator to pair with Jeffers.
  9. Minny505
    I love this trade! If we have learned anything from the last few years it is that a utility infielder will find a way to get 400+ PAs. Farmer is a much better fit for this team and this role than Urshela, Arraez, Gordon, or Miranda. This also opens up a possibile trade with the Giants for Crawford on the cheap* (Giants pick up $10mil of his final contract year) to be the strong side of the platoon at SS, should the Giants outbid the Twins for Correa? Having Crawford/Farmer at SS keeps the seat warm for Lewis/Martin/Lee for a year with no commitment beyond that. They'd probably be a 3 WAR platoon in 2023. Not bad. *I have heard on pods that Crawford is being shopped spcifically to make room for Correa
  10. Minny505
    Agreed. Pham seems like a clubhouse powder keg with a sordid history of behavior, and I'm not even considering the fantasy football scuffle as that was just funny. He seems like a jackass that would be willing to start a fight with a teammate. It's not worth the trouble.
  11. Minny505
    I'm right there with you on Cutch. He is actually the FA I'd like most at the expected price. Haniger is solid as well, but even discarding the testicular explosion, he has a history of soft tissue injuries, which are often the recurring kind.
  12. Minny505
    I have heard many MLB analysts on podcasts playing the offseason contract game and the majority expect Correa to sign for less than $300mil. I agree. Whether it's the Twins or another team, I would guess 9/$288ish, with an opt out after years 2 and 4, gets it done. I know if was a strange offseason, but coming off his career year, Correa essentially got a 1 year contract, which means an overpay for the market, at $35mil. That is why most estimates on a long term deal are less than $35 AAV.
  13. Minny505
    I agree on CF and RF, but the bar for LF defense is so low that pretty much anyone who can competently play CF/RF looks good in LF. LF is the place where teams rotate their 9th guy for the day who is doesn't have a defensive home and is healthy and rested. Even Nick Gordon was a positive out in LF, despite being competent at best everywhere else he played. Arraez played a lot of innings there in the past. Going back over the last decade you will see the butchers that the Twins have had play LF and that is not at all unique to the Twins. Even Yordon Alvarez is a competent LFer. The bar is very low in that specific position.
  14. Minny505
    They could use more immediate help in the rotation. It's top heavy. Blaze is a little much, especially with his last few starts of 2022. On top of that, Brewers are always looking for MLB ready guys. I'd offer Varland or Winder, plus Moran or Sands. Regardless, I just can't picture them trading their best hitter. That would be counting on Yelich and 3 rookies for their OF depth chart, one of which isn't even on the 40 man. I find that unlikely if they are still trying to contend, which they should.
  15. Minny505
    Sure. Put Renfroe in LF where he is likely an above-average defender. I'm pretty sure that's permitted by the rules.
  16. Minny505
    Agreed completely. Sano pretty much nailed the mid-point on the distribution of outcomes for someone of his prospect pedigree at roughly 2 WAR per 600 PAs. That means he was essentially an average-ish MLBer during his tenure. To call him a bust indicated a misunderstanding of the potential for prospects.
  17. Minny505
    Seems like a decent one-year-contract bullpen arm.
  18. Minny505
    Trade for Jorge Mateo, currently on the Baltimore Orioles. A 27 yr old with elite speed, elite SS defense, and a potentially trending bat as he had a 94 wRC+, with improved Statcast numbers to corroborate the story, in the second half of 2022, which was his first full season in the majors. With Gunnar Henderson, a consensus Top 20 MLB prospect who is a plus defensive SS himself, looking every bit the part of STUD in his month+ callup, I've heard speculation that Mateo is on the market. If so, he would be a perfect pickup for the base-clogging and IF defensively challenged Twins.
  19. Minny505
    Why do you think this? A 30 yr old (going to be 31 in 2023 season) RHB COF with a 118 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons, and who is an average defender in RF, would be a welcome addition to any lineup, especially the Twins.
  20. Minny505
    Renfroe may be able to be acquired by trade, but he's not getting non-tendered. He was the best hitter on their team for anyone with more than 68 PAs.
  21. Minny505
    Yup. This has no impact on the decision to bring in a RHB COF. For the contract, it's a great signing as it ensures they have someone in case the market for those outfielders gets heated.
  22. Minny505
    I am surprised by the lack of interest, around all MLB, in not training relievers for 2 inning stints. It's well understood that every RP used in a game is raising the risk factor as all it takes is one of those guys to "not have it" that day for the perfect plan to go south. 2 inning stints reduces this risk factor significantly. My ideal modern bullpen of 8 RP would be 4 RPs that train to pitch 2 innings per appearance and 4 RPs trained to pitch 1 inning per appearance. I admit that may not work in practice, but it sounds perfect to me in theory.
  23. Minny505
    I love the idea, and this is one instance where the fans would likely be on the side of ownership, but the MLBPA would never agree to it unless it meant more money for the players...which it should, but the owners history of sharing new revenues with the players is poor at best. It could happen if the owners incentivized the players properly. But the ratings would likely not be that good if the tourney competed with the WS tourney. Maybe in September? But then it would have to be minor leaguers, which could happen since the minors playoffs are done by mid-September. Have the 40 man roster that is not called up, along with all the other top players throughout the system, compete? But that defeats the purpose. Awesome idea, but really hard to see how it works.?
  24. Minny505
    Is there a double play opportunities converted rate out there? Anyone know? Maybe something similar? Otherwise this seems more dependent on the pitcher than it does the fielders.
  25. Minny505
    I'm happy to see the sanity here. You are going to have to climb much farther up the ladder and get the ear of Grandpa Manfred and Uncle Clark in order to get the Twins to pitch SPs deeper into games.
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