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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I'm not sure how this possibly supports your assertion, especially being the "best" example (to support your cause). What would make this "when in doubt?" Besides not being designed to answer the question, this draft, IIRC, had Rodon as the best college pitcher out there by far. The first possible "when in doubt" moment is with Nola and Freeman, though I'm not sure how good Freeman is or isn't, given Colorado. Regardless, listing the pitchers in a draft with their WAR doesn't come close to answering the question. An observational design would look at college pitchers over a number of years taken with the same pick or possibly the same pick ranking for college pitchers. Or more simply, look at college lefties vs righties overall production in MLB fractioned by the percentage of each who make it, accounting for starting and innings pitched. It's an interesting question, but I don't think there's anything supporting your statement. It's possible lefties are a better choice, I just doubt there's a proper basis, and my instinct says righties.
  2. twinstalker
    When in doubt take the lefty? I'd be willing to bet that, when talking first-round college SPs and adjusting for pick number, you're better off with the righty in terms of MLB starting pitching stats.
  3. twinstalker
    I don't think that's how it works. What I'm starting to believe in, though, is that the Twins might actually have a development process for blocks of clay.
  4. twinstalker
    Oh, a couple more comments: Good to see Mercedes swinging well. Seems to have a 20% K-rate, which is decent for his age/league (he was at 20% last year at 18/FCL and again at 19/FCL). With lots of qualification, superstar internationals generally mash FCL at 18 or less. Acuna, Soto, Franco are examples. But I think we gave up on that wild hope last year. Doing so well at 19, albeit repeating, is a good sign. His walk rate 11% is double last year, and his isolated power is slightly better (it wasn't bad last year). I suspect he'll be promoted if he continues, and we'll see him with Jenkins in low A for at least a while. They're both 19, Mercedes a few months older. Not being ready last year (and maybe a little hurt), is anything but unusual, but it does possibly indicate he's not at the same level as Jenkins. I don't think they're going to dump Margot for Keirsey. Maybe for Martin. But even if Keirsey were rh, I'd think they'd want to see how he'd do when a 40 man spot otherwise opens up along with an OF injury to get on the 26. Keirsey may very likely not be ready to hit MLB, and to dump Margot for him, he'll have to be about 30% better, given he's left handed.
  5. twinstalker
    EmRod in fact does have a lot to prove still at AA. If what you want out of guy is great minor league stats, then congratulations. I'm invested heavily in him across my fantasy leagues, but I'm not all that optimistic. I've seen time and time again how parts of this profile can destroy the good. He hits the ball hard and far? What happens when he doesn't get a meatball but instead gets only those pitches he doesn't know what to do with? Because there is a wide variety of pitches he doesn't know how to handle. I'd prefer he learn how to compete against those, and if he can't do it at AA, why would he be promoted? All positives that we know of for Keaschall. He's got some pop, doesn't K a ton, and I think (think) he can probably play 2B.
  6. twinstalker
    Just so you know, your recommendation hasn't ever worked. I've never seen a video in the years you've put them on here. I've "whitelisted," and it doesn't help at all. I've never had a problem watching a video from any other site. May I suggest this is something you're causing? Are these videos posted on YouTube?
  7. twinstalker
    Twins are loath to trade good prospects after the Reds fiasco. I'd suggest somebody in the 10-15 range, which Keaschall no longer is in. Sure, trade Gonzalez, but the return is iffy. If you want something big, I'm guessing EmRod is the necessary way to go. If you want something small, Gonzalez is too big a fish. Gonzalez is the right price for someone like...I don't know, the Mets' Lugo from 2-3 years ago. I'm struggling to think of a similar profile so far in 2024 on a losing team. But Lugo was just starting to show he could possibly be a nice starter, he was a vet, and he was cheap. If the Twins trade anybody in a relatively small deal, I'd suggest they've given up on him to some degree. I'd trade EmRod for a year and a half of a top starter similar to Pablo Lopez, but the Twins won't be adding big money.
  8. twinstalker
    I'm not sure I agree with what you said after, but this was my very first thought. Keaschall couldn't be less connected to the Reds trade. I mean, there are going to be some Twins pop-up players every year, and are we going to associated them with our horrible trades for purposes of ??? Twins: horrible trade. Keaschall: guy who might have a chance two years later who's still playing A+/AA. If the Twins didn't have a guy who looked like this (they didn't last year), it would have been further proof the system is in the sewer. Nearly all teams have a Luke Keaschall, you just haven't heard of them. Heck, the Twins just signed one and are likely going to replace Keaschall at A+ with him. That's how easy and common it is to have a Luke Keaschall-like player in your system. I mean, he seems like a decent pick but more of a hustle, great teammate sort than a power guy. K-rate fine. Age for AA promising. I expect some issues, but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he's ultimately a better hitter (not fielder) than Lee. His age vs production vs level is on the good side and does make him a real prospect until he shows otherwise. OPS at AA of .800+ will keep things promising. btw, I don't know that Keaschall is any better fielder than Steer. He might be, but the bar is much higher in MLB. and fwiw, I did believe the Twins had one of the very worst systems in MLB last year for prospects, saved by Jenkins, really. It seems greatly improved due to many players making a leap, especially those starting the year in A+.
  9. twinstalker
    Like a first round pick three years ago who decided to go way back to low A just for the hell of it. But, yeah, no real point in keeping him there. K rate is a touch higher than you'd hope, given his profile, age, and league, but I'd rather see at A+ whether it's sample size variation. Good to see him park one. No power threat, no MLB future.
  10. twinstalker
    Nope. He won't hit well enough to get a big contract, so it would be dumb to reject it. The Twins only really want the draft pick here. If he does have a really big year and is willing to play CF, then he would reject it because that's worthy of a big contract. I find the probability of that low.
  11. twinstalker
    LOL at Severino.
  12. twinstalker
    This is just a guess, but it appears that Julien sees the ball's path much better than he sees it out of the hand. Problem with that is the path is misleading if you aren't sure of the pitch itself, which seems to be the issue. And that could be total bunk, I don't know. The best hitters flirt with a 15% K rate in the minors. Julien's was never less than 24% in any year-level. EmRod's similar or worse than Julien in that respect. Take even a power hitter like Pete Alonso, his K rate was between 15-20%. So it's not surprising that MLB pitchers get Julien out. To strike out 25-30% in the minors means there's a hole in your swing. MLB pitchers inevitably find it. So last year during spring training when certain people were talking up Julien, you might have found a couple scoffing comments from yours truly. K rate doesn't lie, generally. 25-30% K rate in MiLB means there's a hole in your swing, and MLB pitchers will find it. 15-20% K rate in MiLB means you likely can pay attention to other predictors, such as exit velocity and such. No hard and fast rules, but that's my take from years and years of determining predictors of MLB success. Royce Lewis is going to be an interesting case study for many reasons. His K rate wasn't great, and it wasn't horrible, but his barrel rates and exit velocities are likely excellent. Nobody's had time to find his weaknesses. That portends early success, and from there it's all about his smarts, work ethic, and ability to adapt, which is far more likely than it is with Julien or EmRod, because he probably doesn't have a pronounced hole in his swing like they do. Honestly, if they could get real value (and $$$ efficiency), trading EmRod this year is probably the smartest move they could make. The question is if they could find that perfect player in return. I think a superb defensive CF like Ceddanne Rafaela has hitting chops that haven't been shown in MLB, but I doubt the Red Sox would give him up for EmRod, even with his slow start. Note on re-read: I've always like Julien and think he has a chance to be good. There are a lot of things to like and seemingly only one thing to figure out. He has power, speed, eye, and doesn't chase much. I just didn't think he'd slide seamlessly into MLB. On the other hand, I grabbed him early (years ago) on my dynasty teams.
  13. twinstalker
    First, no ERod. Do you know how many there are out there? The natural is EmRod. Listen, I have EmRod on 5 of my 6 fantasy teams. I'm hopeful for him, but as one or two have said above, the game isn't easy for guys who strike out at too high a rate in the minors. They don't really improve that without a complete overhaul. Or a long, steady working it out over many years. They do often make a splash, though. I think instead of promoting EmRod, they need to work on his K rate at AA. He clearly can mash what doesn't confuse him. That superpower will always be with him. He needs, in a non-pressure situation such as AA, to figure out why he can't stop striking out. He has to, or once pitchers figure out his weaknesses, it's going to be ugly. That's what should have happened with Julien, too. I just don't understand how teams can ignore K rate. Look at how they promoted Larnach all the way to the majors ignoring it, and now he's doing everything he can to finally learn before he becomes an ex-ballplayer. But doing it on the Twins time. Keep EmRod at AA until he proves he can solve the best pitchers there.
  14. twinstalker
    If he's a good player in MLB, we'll be lucky. Not saying he couldn't be, but data don't lie. His profile doesn't work well in the majors. I mean, who's going to walk him? He's interesting enough to get a little excited about, but I'd temper expectations. They're going to strike him out A LOT.
  15. twinstalker
    The past tense of lead is led.
  16. twinstalker
    McCusker: Numbers are really skewed by blowout, and he strikes out too much at AA. I would suggest waiting to see how he does in half a season. And he's 26 this year. Poncho: somewhat intriguing so far. Again, the question is how he'll do at A+, given he's 22. That he has a 16:15 BB:K ratio now when it was 16:36 in college last year tells me he's probably facing worse pitching. Promote him in a month and see whether he's real in the second half. Keirsey: well, his K rate is a little high, but it was better at AAA last year. It tells me he's letting loose this year. I think he gets his chance at some point. There's nothing to draw on to think he's worthy, but if he keeps up his current numbers for another month or two, he'll need to get a chance just to see. He turned 27 today. It's pretty much this year or never for him to push through. The guy I'm most excited about is De Andrade. I loved his swing when the Twins signed him, at the time they said he'd stick at SS, and he's finally starting to show his stuff in age-appropriate leagues. There's your real Twins prospect, the guy who takes over SS for Correa. (p.s. I don't really know how good a fielder he is, so grain of salt that comment)
  17. twinstalker
    Not sure whether Wild or Wolves are free agents.
  18. twinstalker
    Fubo good so far, but Comcast owns a chunk of it.
  19. twinstalker
    Fubo's 1000 hours of DVR storage should be enough, though I spent an extra $15 to get Showtime and MGM+ to get a library of movies for now (recording most of them). I've already recorded more movies on Fubo in five days than Comcast would allow me to store. I'm up to about 230 hours so far. Besides not having the TNT/Discovery stuff, Fubo doesn't have an option for MAX, but you can get MAX for $10/mo as a stand alone (I use both Fubo and MAX through my $50 Roku device). Currently, subscribing to MAX gets you the TNT for free, but it will cost you an extra 10 when they decide to end that. I would drop TNT channel as soon as Wolves are done, then add it for March Madness and possible Wolves playoffs next spring. But if you don't get MAX, you should. The programming and movies and everything HBO ever is awesome. My Roku remote is extremely simple and therefore more clunky than Comcast which was more clunky than my Tivo remote (do not get Tivo, trust me, though you need Comcast to use Tivo, so it's moot), so that's the main downside I've found thus far, but it still works well, and fast forwarding or rewinding is easy and quick or slow as you need (you just can't always see the show as you do so, just the time. Again, that's my Roku remote, the streaming device you use might have a better one).
  20. twinstalker
    Nothing like listening to John Gordon and not having a clue what is happening in the game as you hear the roar or groan of the crowd. The count? You might get it once during the AB, so listen closely! Oh, is he not still there? (Honestly, I have Roku and am switching out Comcast for Fubo. I haven't missed a game since I was shown the message on screen by Comcast on May 1. If you don't have a Roku streaming stick for $50, it will be one of your best investments for streaming anything on your TV. Fubo is $80/mo, I think)
  21. twinstalker
    Are you asking if we're old? Yes. Yes I remember ES. Unlike pretty much every Twin from 1970 on, though, I don't have any specific memories, even from radio listening. It wouldn't surprise me if he were non-clutch to go with his meh Twins career.
  22. twinstalker
    His nickname is already EmRod.
  23. twinstalker
    Really the only naysaying thing about him has been his too-high K rate. I didn't see that in the four bullet points.
  24. twinstalker
    Nice feature. Thanks. I remember that Ron Davis game well. We were very optimistic going into 1985, but then had 9-10ish game losing streak that this was probably part of, followed it with a 9-10ish game winning streak, followed by a 9-10ish game losing streak a month or so later. Ugh. Puckett was fun, but he had no power or patience. Another Twins who was a flash in the pan? We'd had a lot of them in recent years, but Puck already was a cult hero, and it did seem different. Ron Davis and Billy Gardner had to go. They really did. Butcher and Smithson, our lovely haul for Gary Ward, were suddenly not as good as in 1984, and it was reported/implied that Butcher was tipping his pitches, but nothing got figured out. Hrbek, Bruno, Bush, Laudner, Gaetti were in their fourth full year, and as a whole were disappointing. Viola was meh and had no help until we traded for Blyleven (a year late). Somehow Ron Davis lingered, but Gardner was fired for Ray Miller, who definitely was in over his head. Ron Washington and Houston Jimenez (gone) weren't as hustly and/or cute as they'd been the year before, and Tim Teufel simply wasn't the answer at 2B. John Castino had succumbed to his back pain by then, and basically the pitching sucked. I did a quick check, though, and as bad as the pitching was, they had 41 CG, including Blyleven getting 9 in his 14 starts. The other good news I recall besides Bert is Roy Smalley was back with the Twins, a young man with expansive range and a cannon arm took over SS for the next decade, and someone we all called Chief had a great season behind the plate, delegating young Laudner to backup duty the second half. Other than than, it wasn't anything to write home about. There was a young man listening to games on the radio in his Northfield dorm room, disgusted but having too much fun with friends and beer to really care as graduation approached. The Twins were doing well as finals finished, but KC was a number of games ahead, and then that second 10 game losing streak happened. It was all over by the time he emptied his four years into his little bedroom at home. The young man drank much that summer, crushed on a friend's girlfriend, bartended in a couple of meh bars in Maplewood Mall (remember Esteban's?), and watched Live Aid live on TV before heading off to grad school. Ultimately, Don Denkinger handed the Royals their first WS title in what would prove to be their last playoff appearance for 39 years. Is that right? 2014? The Twins' bats came alive that next year, but the pitching stunk (Ron Davis was finally fired!), and the manager was in over his head. If you don't think a manager matters much, remember to compare Ray Miller to his replacement, Tom Kelly. Sometimes it matters a lot.
  25. twinstalker
    No small feat for EmRod.
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