RJA

It is interesting that you note the Twins traded Urshela so Miranda could have third base all to himself when they now say they may sign Turner to share time with Miranda and mentor him. This FO changes their opinions as often as the Minnesota weather changes. I think they are looking to justify these last minute acquisitions so they don't look like they screwed things up waiting for Correa.

Boras absolutely owns this FO. He manipulates the heck out of them. So, if Gallo sucks, he gets 11 million on his way out of the league. If he does decent, he will get a contract from someone else next year as there apparently is not an option built in. He treats the Twins like the Yankees used to treat the KC franchise in the 50's and 60's, kind of like a farm team. These Ivy League boys are real aces.

For adding a good defensive glove to your OF and a bat that has historically hit well at TF and has upside to him 30+ HR's. Not every signing is going to be a franchise guy. They are banking on their young guys to be those guys....they haven't proven they can yet so until they do you bring in a veteran that can help the team win games. I believe that's the goal, right? You are ignoring some facts. Don't like projections, then note that Kepler's career WAR is 16.9 and Gallo's is 14.7. Hmmm, unless my math skills need work, Kepler has outperformed Gallo in the same number of years by 2 WAR. I don't like either of them much, but to add this guy at 11 million is crazy. All the spinning in the world won't change that fact. And, he bats left handed. Kepler is better in high leverage at bats as he has hit .250 with .725 OPS, while Gallo is .166 and .681. Late and close Gallo is .156 and .629. We couldn't afford Urshela at 9 million so we sign Gallo for 11. Amazing.

Sherry, I love your optimism, but I doubt they included everything but the kitchen sink as they were 65 million short--that would buy a lot of kitchen sinks :). According to Dan Hayes, they are now looking at Joey Gallo--a left handed hitting player who would be a huge improvement (?) over Larnach, Wallner or Kirilloff, and Justin Turner who had almost identical stats to Gio Urshela last year, but was one WAR short of him, but who would provide veteran leadership for Miranda, and probably only for an extra 3-5 million more than Urshela. I love your articles--I am not being grumpy, just realistic.

Well, there goes one pivot opportunity :).

Interesting take. I personally think Correa was honest in his comments about the team and area, but unlike Buck, he didn't grow up in this organization, so any thoughts that one year here would cause him to give a hometown discount were misplaced. He did what almost anyone would do in his situation--he took the extra 65 million dollars. My problem with the FO is that they should know that as well, and should not let many quality players come off the board while they are waiting for Correa. It is hard to pivot in free agency when very few quality players are left. By playing a waiting game, they missed other opportunities to improve the club. If you are going to be "disciplined" and not expand the budget for an extrordinary player, then move on immediately and work other angles while players are still available. Frankly, trading for Mahle and Paddack when one was experiencing a shoulder issue in the current season, and the other was having issues after one TJ surgery is not a sign they are aggressive, it is a sign they are foolish and not disciplined. It is much like the additions of Happ, Shoemaker, Hill, Bailey, Archer, and Bundy. They did nothing to improve the team. My Dad always told me "buy quality tools even if they cost more because they will last longer and do a better job." I think this FO should take his advice to heart.

Heyman's latest article in Post suggests Twins not really in on Swanson and are reassessing where they go from here.

This will be an average team unless a lot of young players step up.

Amen. There was no way that offer was going to be acceptable, and if all of us know that, how can the FO geniuses (kudos to Sid Hartman) not know that? They did the same thing in the Wheeler situation, and ended up getting Donaldson, who like virtually all Twins trade additions, had an injury history. Surprise, surprise, he was injured here, too. It is like this group is constipated in their decision making, and then when their unrealistic plans don't materialize, they frantically look to do something to save face. It is not like even bringing Correa back (even assuming that was a good idea), was going to make this team better. It would have been the same team. Let's hope Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda and the rest of the next generation take a big step forward. If we don't improve to compete this year, in 24 we will be without Mahle, Gray and Maeda, and only have one year left for Paddack, and he is coming off his second surgery. This FO is in a pickle IMHO. It will be interesting to see what they do next. Let's hope it is something that makes this team better in a meaningful way.

Tell me your team has a losing record without telling me your team has a losing record. Yep!

I think Farmer could catch in a pinch so it would also be possible to use both catchers as DH's a few times a month. I think the time sharing will work out just fine. Not a lot of responses to this article though it is a good one. Everyone is obsessed with the Correa storyn :)!

There are no meaningful pivots left. Bogaerts signed for 11 and 280. Can you believe the Twins best offer for Correa was all of 5 million more than that? What are the members of our front office smoking to think that would be anywhere near enough to get Correa.? It is crazy to give Swanson a huge contract--there is a reason he is the last man standing. He is a complimentary piece not a star. Rodon will not come here, especially with no Correa. Trading young players is like eating your young--why do that when you can sign free agents at zero cost of personnel? I am now convinced that his FO and ownership will never do what is necessary to sign top tier free agents. Right now, there is nobody but Buck on his healthy days, IF Rocco puts him in the lineup, that will bring people to the park. It is going to be a rough year attendance wise. Let's pray the young kids light it up!

Hmm. Let's see. Two of your three most consistent hitters are gone--Correa and Urshela. Buck may or may not stay healthy. Kirilloff may or may not be healthy. Mahle may or may not be healthy. Larnach may or may not stay healthy. Winder and Ober may or may not stay healthy. Arraez may or may not be traded. Gray, Maeda, and Mahle are all in the last year of their contracts. The young pitchers, Varland, SWR, and others, may or may not have breakout years. With so many "ifs", I think attendance will really plunge if they don't start strong, and even if they do, it will be later in the summer before fans really start to believe. Swanson won't move the needle if acquired. Rodon would move it a bit. Frankly, I don't see how attendance rebounds. Sorry.

Humorous post. You do get a wide range of reactions on this subject, but it is just baseball. The Twins will never pony up big dollars unless someone signs for a hometown discount like Buck. It was never going to happen, especially at 285 million. Why fret over it?

I'll put money on 2022 being Correa's last year with solid numbers. How much :)?

Swanson had a nice year at a very opportune time as he was entering free agency. I think he is worth exploring, especially if the price was such that it allowed us to add another significant piece--say Rodon--if we were to trade Kepler and use that money as well. But, I realize that it is very unlikely our FO would extend that far. One thing concerns me with Swanson, his strikeout rate, but these days striking out 182 times is pretty normal! On the positive side, his advanced stats show consistency over the past 3 or 4 years, so he is showing no signs of decline yet.

Excellent signing. I also have read that he is a good clubhouse guy and I think that is important. I am always intrigued by players who have great contact skills but don't walk a lot. One would think the two would go hand in hand, but they clearly don't. Austidillo is proof positive of that fact. Let's hope we get a shortstop and/or pitcher next.

I think hometown fans are often too optimistic in evaluating their rosters, so having some projections is always a blast. I hope I am wrong, but I think the starting rotation is not as good as many think, and the unknowns surrounding Kirilloff, Lewis, Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, and many others make this coming year hard to predict. If everyone is healthy and playing well, it could be fun. If not, it might be a long summer. Let's hope the young pitching develops this year.

Whoa, let's not get excited as I am not sure that Kepler will bring anything of value back in a trade that moves the needle in a meaningful way. The Twins need catching, a shortstop, bullpen pieces and a number one starter. Does anyone have ideas about who the Yankees have to fill any of these roles, and who we might target?

Boras is a genius when it comes to maximizing paychecks for his players. He is holding on to Correa and Rodon as the market shrinks, and the Giants and Yankees, and maybe some others, become more desperate as they watch other teams add talent. I have to believe the Yanks are watching all the press the crosstown rivals are getting and feeling pressure to add someone beyond Judge. It would not surprise me at all if they added Rodon.

My fear is that the FO is focusing on one player, Correa, while other players are coming off the market in droves. I suspect they are not wanting to spend any money until they know if they are going to get Correa, but if that pursuit continues to drag on, once again we will be dumpster diving in January when the top talent is gone. Or, we will be trying to make trades for pitchers with 2 years of control, which won't help much with Gray, Mahle, and Maeda all free agents after next year. What good is all that salary space going to do us if Correa goes elsewhere and nothing is left in the cupboard? This FO seems to always be late to the party. That is how we ended up with Donaldson, and why we end up trading for so much pitching with very mixed results. I just hope the young pitchers shine this year so we can have a decent pitching staff in 24 and 25. It is time for the "develop our own" philosophy to pay dividends.

Great article for discussion. I agree with Mikelink45, I am not quite sure how getting rid of your top hitters from a BA/OBP point of view from last year--assuming Correa does not sign--is going to help this team. While the pitching caused issues last year, this team also had a terrible time being consistent at the plate, giving away far too many at bats by chasing out of the zone and trying to hit homeruns. Now if Correa leaves, and with Urshela gone, and you trade Arraez for two years of Lopez, I fear the number of games where we fail to generate any offense and lose 3-1 or 4-2 will be even greater. On the other hand, if Correa stays at 35M a year, will they stretch the budget next year to keep Mahle, Gray, and Maeda, or their replacements, all of whom will be looking for big deals based on this year's signings? It will be interesting to see how the FO navigates the next two years.

Boy, hot topic! The Pohlads are worth at least 3.8 billion, so they could supplement the payroll by 50 million a year with zero problem. So, the answer is, the Twins can be like the Padres but the Pohlads choose not to spend the money. Now some say they shouldn't, that they should run the baseball team like any other business. Others say baseball is a different animal, and that stadiums subsidize billionaires so they should loosen their pocketbooks. I fall into the latter camp but respect that others reasonably believe the former. Success on the field is a combination of player development and payroll budgets. While the Guardians and Rays are examples of teams who have had some success with low payrolls, nobody can argue that larger budgets are not tied to more success. While small market teams can make a run based only on player development (like the Royals did), the big spenders--like the Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Yankees, Philly, etc.--tend to do better over the long haul. This does not mean "spending money like a drunken sailor" is the way to go, but when a team has some young talent, spending money to get them over the hump makes loads of sense. My frustration with this FO is that they are constipated in their decision making--missing out on a lot of free agent pitchers, and thereby having to dumpster dive by adding Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy, Archer, Bailey, etc. Is there risk in adding a long term free agent pitcher, yes. Is there risk in not doing so, yes. It is just a question of which risk you want to assume. I just wish our FO and ownership opted for the latter risk more often.

I love that we are talking draft in December--that is what getting the number 5 pick can do to ramp up enthusiasm. There is a whole lot more baseball to be played before we get really serious about our pick, but I confess I am interested to see what Wes Johnson can do with Skenes. Absent injury, Dollander will be gone for sure, and I don't think they would use a 5 pick on a high school pitcher, or maybe on any pitcher for that matter given the bats that will be on the board, but if one of the other 3 really improves this year they might become attractive. Actually, if Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and the other young pitchers are struggling by July, who knows what they might do? Dman hit the nail on the head, however, as they are in a great position in a draft with up to 10 quality choices, maybe more as other players develop this year. They should get a top notch talent.

Three thoughts. It is fun to speculate but so much can change between now and July depending on how players perform next spring, injuries, etc. Still, whatever happens, we are likely to get a high end prospect in what is thought to be an excellent draft. Second, the Twins usually go for toolsy guys, especially infielders, so I think the plethora of good shortstops this year will be real attractive to them regardless of Correa's fate with the Twins. Finally, unless Dollander drops, I cannot see them taking a pitcher at 5. That would be a more realistic possiblity for their second pick if they don't trade it.