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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    His average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel rate and hard hit rate are virtually the same as Miranda’s this year. They are both similar profile to Solano but Solano is a notch up in each of those categories. Can the Twins build on the strengths of these two batters who tend towards contact or will they they try to push them towards more power? I have been wondering about their ability to develop players with contact rate as ann area of strength since I saw how Austin Martin responded last year. I justified that Arraez turned out well but now he is really thriving this year and was likely under appreciated by the Twins management. They need to help Kirilloff build on his strengths and if that is a good line drive high contact rate hitter there should be a place in the line up for that hitter.
  2. jorgenswest
    I honestly don’t either. For a long time I have favored power and on base over contact but I am wondering if that is still true in this baseball context of a never ending supply of relievers. It might be the skills of the players they choose to roster rather than their approach. They have the worst contact rate in the major leagues this year. They can’t change the roster easily. There are more of the same low contact players in AAA. The players that do tend towards contact like Kepler, Miranda and Celestino don’t seem to be thriving under their guidance. Even a successful contact hitter like Arraez has taken a stride forward after leaving. I do know that there isn’t a linear correlation between runs scored and strike outs. I did notice that the teams that have scored more runs per game this year have a team strikeout rating that tends toward the middle. Maybe that balance has value. I have a lot of questions and wonders. I know this isn’t working. I believe it is bigger than the failures of the individuals. I don’t think it can be fixed without making more contact. That can’t happen without a different preparation or approach. The first half is behind them. They ranked first in strikeouts. What can they do to move that second half strikeout ranking into the second quartile?
  3. jorgenswest
    Maybe. There are bunch of players with a high strikeout/power approach. Does that work better in St. Paul. Isn’t that profile similar to the approach on the Twins?
  4. jorgenswest
    It may take time for teams to adjust their approach? Without a change in approach and a trend towards more contact we probably won’t see a big change. Is the slight because all teams are doing slightly better or are a few teams seeing a significant change. Have the DBacks changed their approach? Their strike out rank is down. Their run scoring is up. Their team batting average is up 30 points.
  5. jorgenswest
    Wallner’s strike out rate is certain to be much higher than Kepler’s. I guess they can be really all in with strike outs. Maybe they let go of Kepler and Gallo while bringing up Wallner and Celestino. I think they need to balance out the strike outs so finding a way to get Miranda back up also would help. Does the run scoring context in St. Paul really give us a misperception of performance? There are a bunch of players in St. Paul with strike out rates at 30% or greater but a good OPS due a power/walk approach. It works there in the higher run scoring environment. How well will those high strike out rates translate to the majors? I do think context rate is important and the Twins need more balls in play. Celestino and Miranda put balls in play. The Twins need that balance between contact and the strike out laden power.
  6. jorgenswest
    If I tried anything for a few weeks it would to try to reduce strike outs and start more often the hitters that tend to put the ball in play. I would also be more aggressive on the bases in front of batters like Correa that tend to hit into double plays. Balls in play and running can energize a bench. Without the support of a study, I wonder if the volume of those strike outs are giving a boost to the pitcher and have a negative impact taking away some energy from the rest of the offense. There is no chance of stringing together a few bloop hits with all of those strike outs. In the baseball environment of the 90s there was almost no correlation between runs scored and strike outs. Is that still true in the 2023 environment. I might be worth the time to take a look. In a put the ball in play plan Miranda and Celestino might be the additions. I have been biased for quite a while by OPS driven up by power and walks. I wonder if baseball is shifting and I haven’t noticed. edit: A graph of team strikeouts per 100 games and runs per 100 games. The line looks similar as the 90s. If there is a relationship it may be quadratic. The teams that score the most runs happen to be more in the middle of the strike out list. They must have a balance between contact and power in their line up. If that is true in the new environment of 2023, how can the Twins achieve that balance?
  7. jorgenswest
    Your main stat OPS+ is based on slash stats and they need a very large sample to stabilize. Would it be wise to devise a lineup for the rest of the season based on the first (almost) half of the season?
  8. jorgenswest
    So many factors go into a pitchers path to the majors. Did they get drafted from college, high school or the international draft? Did they lose a season or even more to Tommy John or other serious injury? did they lose a season in the minors to COVID. Did it take them longer to find that second or third pitch or establish command? In Varland’s case, he went college and his first full age 22 season was lost to COVID. That puts him at 23 in his first professional season. I think it is pretty impressive and a credit to his hard work that he made his major league debut at 24. He has work to do and I think he will continue to do that hard work.
  9. jorgenswest
    My criteria for an established pipeline. 1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer. 2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation. They are getting closer but not there yet.
  10. jorgenswest
    Thoughtful work. Thank you. I appreciate the space for conversation here and hope that the Buxton conversation can happen here rather than nearly every post. I don’t think I fit in any of the categories. I certainly not happy to see him at DH only. I can’t imagine anyone would be happy including the Twins staff. I honestly don’t need more details on the medicals from the team. I appreciate that they are careful to protect the privacy of the player. I trust that if Buxton could play in the field he would be. I don’t need to know more.
  11. jorgenswest
    I am with you. I need to see four series wins in a row before I am a buyer. Atlanta would be a big step in that direction.
  12. jorgenswest
    Great job by the bullpen! Nice series win. It is time for the Twins to start showing they are buyers by winning the Braves series.
  13. jorgenswest
    I find the endless debate about Buxton the same as the endless debate about Mauer. Tiresome and unending. In both cases I trust that the Twins management is going by the advice and recommendations of their medical professionals. I am OK with not knowing the details and appreciate any privacy about health issues they protect. In both cases aI also trusted that the entire staff would prefer Buxton to be in CF and Mauer at catcher. I also don’t believe these decisions were the responsibility of the on field staff. I likely am in the minority but in order to avoid this (to me) tiresome and endless debate I will need to do the same as I did in Mauer’s time and put those who can’t let this go on the ignore list. I would suggest they do the same for me.
  14. jorgenswest
    Do you think the Twins medical staff incorrect in assessing that Buxton should not be playing in the field?
  15. jorgenswest
    Seems like some moves coming based on watching game but not yet hearing any reports. De Leon must be headed to IL. They will need an arm to come back. Did Ortega leave yet? Is Buxton headed to IL? That would be u fortunate timing with his recent bat. Wallner or Larnach? Julien seems so far from playing a passable 2B. I even question whether his throwing action is even fixable. He must have had it in college where they also moved him around looking for a home. Does he need to go to AAA and find another position? You just can’t miss on double plays. Those misses cause long innings and the need to go to the bullpen sooner. His double rate in the minors was so poor and I question whether it can ever improve to a passable level.
  16. jorgenswest
    Maeda and Vazquez took advantage of the umpire’s strike zone really early on, Maeda only needed to throw 38 of 83 pitches in the strike zone to get to his 53 strikes.
  17. jorgenswest
    They just split a 4 game series at home against the last place team in the AL East. This isn’t close enough to a World Series contender yet. It would be nice to see them win 4 series in a row. That is what they would need to do in the playoffs against the best teams. The best they have done is two series in a row this year. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. Some write that they just need to go 13-9. It should be added that they have to go 13-9 while winning 4 series in a row. Start out 1-2 or 4-4 and they are done. They don’t get the opportunity to get to the 13-9. They should hold for now neither selling or buying. If they can win 4 series in a row by July 30 go ahead and go for it. Be a buyer. Otherwise I think they should sell off their expiring contracts. Winning the central is not enough to sell the future. For now, if they were to move on from Kepler, Gallo or Pagán I would not consider that selling.
  18. jorgenswest
    The ace of the staff.
  19. jorgenswest
    Big hits from Farmer, Kepler, Vazquez and Buxton. Shut down inning from Moran. Let’s do it again tomorrow.
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is wise to believe that his next two months will be as dependable as his previous two months. The sample is too small. Solano in a role starting against left handed pitching and ready on the bench against a right handed starting pitcher will play to his strengths. That might require Lewis to play 2B against a lefty.
  21. jorgenswest
    Sometime later this year I expect the same article about Kirilloff. Young players are going to struggle and go through some rough stretches. I would let both Lewis and Miranda work it out here. There is space for both with Kirilloff in RF. They don’t need to play everyday to develop. (Note: veteran’s go through rough stretches also but there are other discussions to address those concerns).
  22. jorgenswest
    I have appreciated Solano since watching him break out as a 31 year old with the Giants. He reminded me of Manny Mota then and it still fits. At 35 he should be a short side platoon player and a valuable bat on the bench. He is a batter I would want up in the late innings and runners in scoring position.
  23. jorgenswest
    It matters how you get to those 70s. Did you get there is 4 innings or is 5 or 6 innings? Did you get there by having a 27 and 35 pitch inning? I think if you look to that detail you might see that Gray is treated differently because he arrived at those pitch count numbers differently. This is on Gray. Throw strikes to the Detroit hitters in the bottom half of the line up instead of putting up inning pitch counts of 27 and 35 by walking four of them and you will stay in the game. Against a team like Detroit we need him pitching 7 innings instead coming out after 4 and questioning whether he should get a 5th inning. He can’t get to 7 without throwing strikes.
  24. jorgenswest
    Winder is the current long man. The problem with a long man like Winder is once they go long they aren’t available for a few days. I guess they could have sent him down and flipped him with Headrick. Headrick is the best option as the next starter ready right now. It is good to keep him stretched out as the “6th starter” in AAA. I wouldn’t be surprised if he fills the Twins TBA starter slot Saturday. That start could also be given to Winder.
  25. jorgenswest
    If there is a need at catcher the Twins should call up Wolters because he is more ready to help the team win with both the bat and the glove. The Twins are fortunate to have the veteran off the 40 and in AAA as the third catcher.
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