Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Consider? Absolutely yes. If you are correct in your assessment about the return the Twins listen and say no. If Verlander is only willing to go to the Astros then the Orioles and Dodgers and maybe others will be competing for a small supply of starting pitchers. That demand may drive the return higher than your assessment.
  2. jorgenswest
    Relievers are no more fickle than any other position. Their stat line varies more but it is random variation due to their sample size. That small sample gives the illusion that they are volatile as a group. Teams can get in trouble trading for a reliever based on a half season sample particularly if there wasn’t success in the previous 3 or 4. Dylan Floro has ERAs that have a range that varies by almost 2 runs over the last 4 seasons. His xERA is very stable atlas’s than half a run.his xFIP is also stable with a range of 0.8. His strike out rates and walk rates are pretty stable. It is BABIP and HR rates that are not stable and that home run rate need a large sample. His HR/FB rate was unsustainably low in his good ERA season as his BABIP very high in his poor ERA season. Find a reliever with a track record of good xFIPs, xERAs, strikeout and walk rates and you will have found a good reliever. There is the chance that the small sample remains will get bitten by a high BABIP but that isn’t in the pitcher’s control and only in the teams control as far as their willingness to put up a defense that limits hits on balls in play,
  3. jorgenswest
    I am surprised Cleveland couldn’t do better. The floor on starting pitching is so low. The floor on first baseman is pretty high. I would have thought they should have been able to find a similarly ranked up the middle player or starting pitcher. I am glad they won’t have Civale in 24 and 25.
  4. jorgenswest
    Keep him.
  5. jorgenswest
    There is value in winning the central so I am not selling. The team as is can compete for the central. I am also not buying. They need too many pieces. I would make parallel moves. Trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda but get a similarly aged/years of control return that is a better fit positionally. Lopez for Floro was a parallel move. Lopez had that extra year of control but I am not sure they would have taken him to arbitration. There are a few veterans they might move without really selling. Gallo and Pagán are in this group. My strategy is to do little and compete for the central with the players on the roster.
  6. jorgenswest
    The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players.
  7. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if Keuchel is a playoff caliber capable pitcher. If the Twins believe he is they should keep him. They won’t get a return near that level and they need more playoff caliber pitchers. Keeping him means that one of the 6 goes to the pen in a high leverage late inning role. Maeda has shown he can be that capable late inning reliever but it has been a few years. Is it a role where Ober or Keuchel could be successful? Ober hasn’t done it but it would reduce an inning count that is already at a career high. Can Keuchel fill the need of a left handed reliever? While I am not a buyer at the deadline I am also not selling off any playoff caliber pitchers.
  8. jorgenswest
    He was recalled in 2022 short of 20 days.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins had no one close to matching Marte. They could not have made that deal. That was clear at the time. Maybe hindsight isn’t always 20/20.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am not a buyer this year and only interested in parallel moves that will improve 2024. Hader is a free agent. I also am not sure I want to pay for his decline in his next contract. The deal is a fair deal. If I thought the Twins could contend I would endorse it. Every team can use Hader though. Someone will offer prospects with better upside.
  11. jorgenswest
    I am not advocating buying this year. They can try to make a parallel move and trade Larnach for a player with similar age/control that is a better roster fit. This year is not the time to trade him for a player on an expiring contract or in decline,
  12. jorgenswest
    Willi Castro has 1.4 fWAR which is second on the Twins. He has very good defensive numbers at 3B. He really helps with his base running. They could do a lot worse filling in at 3B.
  13. jorgenswest
    How can anyone ignore Plato’s performance in AA this year? Put it with his AAA and he is near his career norms. Slash stats take a long time to stabilize. More than a season. I hope the front office is not making decisions primarily on the 2023 stat line at AAA.
  14. jorgenswest
    We have to get this back on track. As for last off season from my memory they were using at least one 40 man spot to sign and DFA guys like Dennis Santana. Did that help? They could have waited about a week and signed Solano when the 60 was available or maybe Steer hits his way into Solano’s spot. That is at least two. Of course they don’t have Mahle that might be three but they probably add a different starter. Maybe it would have been so tight that they don’t sign Gallo. Darn. As for next year and my hope for this year’s boring deadline I would be willing to sell Prato or Williams or Stevenson or Helman. It will be tough to find a space for them this winter. I also don’t think they lose any to rule 5 though Stevenson would be a free agent. Prato isn’t really a sell high. Including his AA his OPS is at his career average and below .800. Williams isn’t a catcher and would really need to hit to have a major league job. Stevenson has played 5 different seasons in the majors. Helman is already 27. If they want to sell any of those players for a rental reliever I am in. That would be a boring deal.
  15. jorgenswest
    Who is not on the 40 that should be this year? Lee and Severino? They would need to be destroying AA and they really aren’t. Look at Severino’s strike out rate. His 132 WRC+ is good but not unusual. Lee’s is 122. Jake Cave is at 170 in AAA. These numbers aren’t very helpful in determining readiness. Do you mean if they kept Steer? They have had guys that they could put on the 60 day IL when they need space. They haven’t needed it. There is no roster crunch. There won’t be next year.
  16. jorgenswest
    His BABIP against lefties this year is .411. Last year it was .279 against lefties.
  17. jorgenswest
    Julien will get significant plate appearances this year. Wallner is getting his opportunity. Last year the same was said about Steer. If he were still on the roster he would have hit his way into at bats. Hitters will emerge. Every year the number of opportunities is greater than the supply of hitters. I am not selling any young player with upside in fear of no place to play in return for a rental. Not this year.
  18. jorgenswest
    If the Astros are interested in Gallo I am in. That sounds like a parallel trade of prospects for which I am an advocate.
  19. jorgenswest
    There is space for all of these players as long as they hit. I read so often of the crunch that never comes. This year they may have as many as 18 players with 100 plate appearances (Lewis and Gordon in the 90s and Wallner 10 starts away). They need a lot of good hitters. I am not trading a guy like Miranda or Severino that have options left and have more upside than anyone they will get for the short term. As for Gordon I have much more faith in his statcast number than the for too small sample to look at slash stats from this year. With his speed his BABIP will be over .300 and not .179. I think he is much more likely to hit like the 22 Gordon next year. The walk rate is too low but that is something that goes up with plate appearances. I don’t think it is wise to look at this partial season without giving more weight to the bigger picture 3 year look. That is why I want to avoid Thomas and Candelario and also want to avoid selling low on upside for a short term rental. I will swap upside for upside though if they move Miranda or Larnach or Wallner for a player with similar age and control that is a better fit on the roster. They will need over 15 position players and maybe as many as 20 next year that can help win games. There is a place for Miranda, Gordon, Severino and Lewis.
  20. jorgenswest
    If he is the hitter he was in 21-22 they will keep him. There will be a spot on the roster.
  21. jorgenswest
    You can add Gordon to the list. There is always a place for the Miranda we saw last year. They have 13 spots for hitters. There will be injuries and slumps. Severino is a long way a way with his strike out rate and poor glove. I don’t put much faith in a good minor league OPS with poor strike out walk numbers. Lee may come up and show he needs more time. It might be 2025 before he is a regular. Farmer turns 33 next month. I don’t see a log jam for a good hitter.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hope it is boring. I hope any trade is of the parallel type. Trading out Lopez for Floro is a parallel trade. They really need to avoid selling low on Miranda for a rental. We don’t know how much that shoulder has impacted his season and they need that right handed bat. I don’t want to sell low on Larnach either. If they package one Larnach or Wallner for a similarly aged right handed OF that would be a parallel trade. The best hopes for them are on the roster already. They need Kepler to be a league average RF which is possible. They need to get Buxton back in CF even it it means he is there once a series, DHs once and rests the third game. That gives some DH space for Wallner and Julien. They need Polanco to come back healthy and hit. They Stewart to come back throwing like he was in the first half. They need to give Gallo’s spot to Larnach and Wallner. I see the Angels trading two of their best prospects. I was advocating for those moves last year. This year I hope for boring.
  23. jorgenswest
    They could not have matched the Mariners offer. They didn’t have a prospect that was close to Marte. There were three playoff caliber starters moved at the deadline. Castillo was out of their reach and Montas ended up injured like Mahle. It is fair to criticize the deadline trades but it is the real risk of being a buyer at the deadline, Any that criticize must also be strong advocates for not going for it at the trade deadline and never be in the role of a buyer. You can’t have it both ways.
  24. jorgenswest
    Do those OPS numbers have any meaning in that size sample? Pagán has four years of negative WPAs. I believe Aaron Gleeman started his WPA since 2020 is the worst in baseball. Floro has a negative WPA this year but it was positive the previous three. I would give Floro the ball in high leverage situations before Pagán or Lopez but that is a low bar right now.
  25. jorgenswest
    Lane Thomas has an xWOBA a little lower than Kepler and Gallo. He is an extreme buy high with a BABIP much higher than his career norm. His xSLG would rank 14th on the Twins. His hard hit and barrels rate is almost an extract match to Farmer. I trust those statcast numbers to predict the rest of the season better than the slash stats. The Nationals would be wise to sell in spite of his years of control. I hope the Twins stay away.
×
×
  • Create New...